Posted on 03/03/2012 7:52:20 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
The sunspot number for February from SIDC is down again, to 33.1
Here’s the source of that data: http://sidc.oma.be/DATA/monthssn.dat
So far, cycle 24 is significantly lower in SSN number that the last three cycles, in addition to having a delayed start. While the delta of the drop in Feb 2012 is not unusual by itself, it is the lowest observed value of the last three cycles this far into a new cycle.
Compared to the entire data set back to 1749, which I’ve plotted below…
…it shows cycle 24 so far to be on par with cycle 12 and cycle 6 in amplitude.
While this drop in SSN number might appear to some as a signal for a possible peaking of cycle 24, there is other evidence that suggests otherwise. For example the Solar Polar Field Strength. Usually the polarity of the North and South solar hemispheres flips at solar max. As you can see in the graph we are close but not quite there yet. And, it has flattened out compared with previous recent transitions.
Source: http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Polar.gif
Leif Svalgaard also tracks this and here are a couple of his graphs:
Source: http://www.leif.org/research/Solar-Polar-Fields-1966-now.png
Source: http://www.leif.org/research/WSO-Polar-Fields-since-2003.png
Leif has previously suggested that he thinks for solar polar field will see the flip later 2012 or early 2013. We don’t have long to wait.
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has not yet updated their Solar Cycle Progression page, but will in a few days. In the meantime, here are the SSN and Ap index graphs manually updated with SIDC data to give you an idea of what they will look like compared to the forecast (in red):
The Ap Geomagnetic field index, just like the SSN, is down again, suggesting the sun’s magnetic dynamo is not winding up like it did near the peak of cycle 23 and previous cycles.
We live in interesting times.
The sun will show us who’s boss come Dec 21st 2012.
With a star of the sun’s mass, when the hydrogen fusion really starts to slow down, the helium core sets up for ignition. That would not be good.
Actually, what knowledge I do have of sunspots was gained from obscure studies and related literature directed at revolutionaries, directing them to time their agitation to periods of high sunspot activity. It appears that social unrest correlates well with them. I found that odd and fascinating enough to pursue. Not much online that I'm aware, just scattered oblique references.
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Great Data! Thanks!
I appreciate your sentiments however these AGW folks should already have more than enough evidence to discount their untenable assumptions.
Facts alone can't stop the stupid.
I would love to see all those arrogant Canadians buried under glaciers. The good Canadians can move South.
“CQ CQ CQ six meters.”
___________________________
As an avid DXer ( DXCC TOP OF THE HONOR ROLL), I lived for
the sunspot maximums.
Those days, however, are “Gone With the Wind”.
I now consider solar activity as the driving force in any climate changes.
If only the Goreons could find a way to get their money out of the sun, they could leave the rest of us alone.
Sending to some weather buffs who can help me understand the science better. Very informative article but a bit over my head!
Thanks for the post. Sunspot numbers in the teens last month was a good clue.
Global warming is not caused by the sun.
</sarcasm>
“It appears that social unrest correlates well with them. I found that odd and fascinating enough to pursue.”
I knew an old, eccentric geologist that had years ago done lots of studies in solar activity and climate and he developed cold-weather plants for crops. He also made the observation that when the solar cycle was low - the price of gold was high.
Too bad he died years ago to see his observations come through again.
That’ll be the day after our 32nd anniversary so we’ll either have had a good time or my wife will be mad at me for some reason ... either way I’ll be OK with it ... ;-)
Interesting data, Earnest. I usually don’t pull data until the end of March after the winter is over, NOAA has cleaned up its review of hurricane data and SIDC posts their Annual Report.
That said, Looks like a very different sunspot minimum than what I have charted in my work thus far.
Keep the good work going.
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Being in Northern Vermont, I was cheering on the gradual warming of our hemisphere, but I’ll adapt to whatever comes along. Dr. Jerry Pournelle has been a rational and reasoned skeptic for many years and has recently taken up the topic again with his readers.
His questions and assertions are worth reading at Chaos Manor.