Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

GOLDMAN: The Economy Is Slowing, And This Weeks Jobs Report Will Be Worse Than What People Expect
Business Insider ^ | 04/30/2012 | Joe Weisenthal

Posted on 04/30/2012 6:32:50 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Goldman Sachs is out with a depressing way to start the week: Bearish commentary on the state of the economy and a negative call on this Friday's big jobs report.

There are two key points:

The first is that Goldman's own proprietary economic indicator shows a clearly decelerating US economy.

Ths economic deceleration you can see here.

chart

Goldman Sachs

Then Hatzius says that this Friday's jobs report will be weaker than the 165K new new jobs created that analysts expected. Hatzius sees just 125K.

WHy?

Basically because we still have a lot of winter payback.

Most of the job surge over the last few months came in cold states (suggesting that the weather played a huge impact) and we really haven't seen a payback, as evidenced that the dark line hasn't fallen sharply below the light line (for warm states).

chart

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Society
KEYWORDS: economy; goldmansachs; unemployment

1 posted on 04/30/2012 6:32:56 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Is it still Unexpected if you expect it to be unexpected?


2 posted on 04/30/2012 6:34:02 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (Like Emmett Till, Trayvon Martin has become simply a stick with which to beat Whites.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Why? Because Barack Obama is still president.


3 posted on 04/30/2012 6:34:19 AM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

This is happening all over the world. Check out this economist’s view of global housing deflation.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/04/29/scorcher-vi-global-meltdown-of-housing-prices-u-s-canada-japan-uk-france-denmark-australia-italy-portugal-and-spain/


4 posted on 04/30/2012 6:39:02 AM PDT by whitedog57
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ClearCase_guy

It is Unexpectedly unexpected that an unexpected result will be unexpected.


5 posted on 04/30/2012 6:40:51 AM PDT by ImJustAnotherOkie (zerogottago)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: ImJustAnotherOkie

Unexpectedly, I unexpectedly unexpected this unexpected article to unexpectedly unexpect unexpected facts unexpectedly. Unexpecting the fervently unexpectations of true unexepectedness, and unexpected cermoniously unexpectations all unexpected unexpectedly, unexpecting before the unexpected public of unexpected unexpectations in an unexpected way.


6 posted on 04/30/2012 6:43:47 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Admin Moderator refuses to let me hit it. -- http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/2875871/posts)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: ClearCase_guy
Is it still Unexpected if you expect it to be unexpected?

Drink Now, Drink Then!

7 posted on 04/30/2012 6:45:24 AM PDT by TexasCajun
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: ImJustAnotherOkie

—It is Unexpectedly unexpected that an unexpected result will be unexpected.—

I didn’t expect it either.

I’m lying. I did. I expect this to go full on apocalyptic.


8 posted on 04/30/2012 6:47:47 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

We are in a weak recovery, and will be until we get the Marxists in our government rooted out. Even if Republicans sweep the election it will take a while to root out all of the Rats that have burrowed into the system. I hope Romney (if he wins) takes a cue from the corporate takeover world and gives every politically appointed position a pink slip and starts over. A pledge of “no more czars” would help to.

Hey, a guy can dream, can’t he????


9 posted on 04/30/2012 6:56:43 AM PDT by jdsteel (Give me freedom, not more government.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
UNEXPECTED!
10 posted on 04/30/2012 6:57:28 AM PDT by oh8eleven (RVN '67-'68)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jdsteel
We are in a weak recovery, and will be until we get the Marxists in our government rooted out.

There is no doubt that Obama's policies are hurting our recovery. However, I think we are facing some structural issues that will cause us to have high unemployment for some time to come. Globalization, immigration, and changing demographics affect our job market and the economy. We must deal with those factors sooner rather than later.

11 posted on 04/30/2012 7:04:38 AM PDT by kabar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Lazamataz

I meant to say that


12 posted on 04/30/2012 7:05:18 AM PDT by ImJustAnotherOkie (zerogottago)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: jdsteel

When Clinton arrived in office he wiped out the Federal Prosecutors (am I correct?). When W took office, he left nearly everyone in place. THAT was a HUGH and SERIES mistake of which we as a nation are still paying. Then immediately came the horrid 9/11 attack and things went out of wack as for the Muslim Terrorist threats in this country.

Now it appears that Muslim Brotherhood people are being put in place in all layers of this administration. When oh WHEN will people stop being PC and see the handwriting on the wall that this country is being infiltrated by those who HATE us and want to bring us down? Soros is an extremely evil man and his pockets have no bottoms for money to do just this. Where DID Obama get the money for college? Follow the money, follow the money, as Rush always says.

Weak recovery? We ain’t seen nothing yet. I’ll still bet my remaining 101F investment fund that Soros was behind the huge stock market downturn right in October of 08. Who has details to back me up?


13 posted on 04/30/2012 7:07:10 AM PDT by WaterWeWaitinFor (If we don't help make a change, then who will? It starts with us.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: ImJustAnotherOkie
I meant to say that

Well THAT was unexpected.

14 posted on 04/30/2012 7:10:06 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Admin Moderator refuses to let me hit it. -- http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/2875871/posts)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: WaterWeWaitinFor
I’ll still bet my remaining 101F investment fund that Soros was behind the huge stock market downturn right in October of 08

Absolutely. I actually suspect him in the '07 run on the funds that sparked the whole crisis.

15 posted on 04/30/2012 7:13:23 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Admin Moderator refuses to let me hit it. -- http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/2875871/posts)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Now throw on top of that the “real” GDP is calculated by finding the nominal GDP and subtracting the CPI (inflation) increase. The problem is that the CPI is (intentionally?) understated so the real GDP growth is even smaller that calculated.


16 posted on 04/30/2012 7:15:36 AM PDT by KarlInOhio (You only have three billion heartbeats in a lifetime.How many does the government claim as its own?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Lazamataz

Agreed and Senator Schumer lite the fire with his comments on Indymac and Countrywide Financial. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aAYLeK3YAie4


17 posted on 04/30/2012 7:29:30 AM PDT by Racer1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Does that mean that Goldman will make more or less money?


18 posted on 04/30/2012 8:25:05 AM PDT by ex-snook ("above all things, truth beareth away the victory")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ex-snook

You can bet your bottom dollar that the Goldman execs have already made their bets based on first hand and advanced info they got from their alumni working in DC.

Not sure if that qualifies as insider trading.


19 posted on 04/30/2012 8:28:56 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Not a chance, berry will have it FIXED by Friday.


20 posted on 04/30/2012 8:47:44 AM PDT by woodenickel
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: kabar

The states that are doing well (esp. ND and TX) are recovering natural resources. We have so much energy and other natural resources that are purposefully kept in the ground by the Feds that it is insane. Recovering the use of those assets would be a good start.


21 posted on 04/30/2012 11:14:56 AM PDT by jdsteel (Give me freedom, not more government.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: WaterWeWaitinFor

Republicans need to get it through their heads that no matter what we do the Dems and the media will scream their bloody heads off and call us every name in the book. So, you might as well do the right thing.

If we clean house in D.C. you will see business take notice.


22 posted on 04/30/2012 11:17:29 AM PDT by jdsteel (Give me freedom, not more government.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: jdsteel
There is no doubt that greater exploration and production of our energy resources will create jobs and increase revenue. The question is what will we do with that increased revenue?

We are witnessing the collapse of the welfare state, which is unsustainable. We owe $15.6 trillion and borrow 42 cents of every federal dollar spent. And the entitlement programs represent an unfunded liability of over $60 trillion (75 year period.) In 1950 there were 16 workers for every retiree; today there are 3.3; and by 2030 there will be two workers for every retiree. And by 2030 one in every 5 residents of this country will be 65 or older, twice what it is now.

The multinational corporations are moving abroad to places like China and India that can provide just as educated a workforce as we can at much lower cost with fewer regulations and closer cooperation and support from the host country government. The multinationals are equipping their factories abroad with the latest technology to make their workers just as productive as Americans. It will be harder and harder to compete globally.

The U.S. adds one international migrant (net) every 36 seconds. Immigrants account for one in 8 U.S. residents, the highest level in more than 90 years. In 1970 it was one in 21; in 1980 it was one in 16; and in 1990 it was one in 13. In a decade, it will be one in 7, the highest it has been in our history. And by 2050, one in 5 residents of the U.S. will be foreign-born. Currently, 1.6 million legal and illegal immigrants settle in the country each year; 350,000 immigrants leave each year, resulting in a net immigration of 1.25 million.

Since 1970, the U.S. population has increased from 203 million to 310 million, i.e., over 100 million. In the next 40 years, the population will increase by an additional 130 million to 440 million. Three-quarters of the increase in our population since 1970 and the projected increase will be the result of immigration. The U.S., the world’s third most populous nation, has the highest annual rate of population growth of any developed country in the world, i.e., 0.963% (2011 estimate,) principally due to immigration.

87 percent of the 1.2 million legal immigrants entering annually are minorities as defined by the U.S. Government and almost all of the illegal aliens are minorities. By 2019 half of the children 18 and under in the U.S. will be classified as minorities and by 2039, half of the residents of this country will be minorities. Generally, immigrants and minorities vote predominantly for the Democrat Party. Hence, Democrats view immigration as a never-ending source of voters that will make them the permanent majority party. It is worth noting that the out of wedlock birth rate for Hispanics is over 50% topped only by the black rate of 71% rate. And both have over 50% school drop out rates. These two group are the fastest growing part of our society. That does not bode well for our future unless we can find ways to keep families together and educate their children.

Minorities are disproportionately affected by the importation of cheap, unskilled labor, which results in unemployment and depressed wages. The Bureau of Labor statistics for January 2012 show a national unemployment rate of 8.3 percent, including 13.6 percent for blacks and 10.5 percent for Hispanics. These numbers are probably much higher, especially in urban areas. The silence from the Black and Hispanic Caucuses has been deafening on these Depression-like numbers. In the meantime, there are 8 million illegal aliens holding jobs and we are importing another 125,000 legal foreign workers A MONTH! This includes new permanent residents (Green Cards) and long-term temporary visas and others who are authorized to take a job.

57 percent of immigrant headed households with children use at least one major welfare program. We are importing poverty and hundreds of thousands of high school dropouts every year through our kinship system of immigration. 25 percent of the adult legal immigrants who enter each year lack even a high school degree.

Unless we go after the drivers of our debt (entitlement programs) and reduce our immigration levels and go to a merit based system, increasing our revenue and growing jobs will not solve the problem, just delay the final reckoning. The Left will want to use the increased revenue to keep the welfare state going a little longer. They will raid defense spending until that runs out. We just have to look to Europe to see our future if we continue on the same path.

23 posted on 04/30/2012 2:54:56 PM PDT by kabar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: All

doesn’t matter. The administration will fiddle with the metrics and put out numbers that wouldn’t fool anyone and the media will be insisting that high unemployment is actually good and slow growth means less inflation because of decreasing demand, which is a good thing. so please go back to watching American Idol, talking about George Clooney and Beyonce and ignore the fact that you can’t afford OJ, milk and bacon. It’s good because that stuff is really bad for you. Inflation and economic depression is just a way for the President and First lady keep you healthy for your own good.


24 posted on 04/30/2012 3:03:50 PM PDT by newnhdad (Where will you be during the Election Riots of 2012/2013?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: kabar

The longest journey begins with a single step.


25 posted on 05/01/2012 7:18:07 AM PDT by jdsteel (Give me freedom, not more government.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: jdsteel

Right off the cliff.


26 posted on 05/01/2012 7:23:22 AM PDT by kabar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson