NASA/Hathaway’s updated solar cycle prediction – smallest in 100 years

watts up with that? ^ | May 2, 2012 | Anthony Watts

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

From the comments:

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Bruce of Newcastle says:

May 2, 2012 at 3:56 pm

Interesting that Dr Hathaway has a predicted solar cycle length for SC24 around 13 years from look of his graph. Suggests the following cycle will also be cool, about 1-1.5 C below average. So, temperatures look like staying down until the mid 2030′s at least.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

fyi

[ETL]

Here's a sunspot chart showing the various peaks and dips throughout the past centuries. Note the "Medieval Max". It corresponds to the "Medieval Warm Period". The "Maunder Minimum" corresponds to the "Little Ice Age", and the "Modern Max" to the recent warming trend we had been experiencing, at least until the past 15 years or so.

"Changes in carbon-14 concentration in the Earth's atmosphere, which serves as a long term proxy of solar activity. Note the present day is on the left-hand side of this figure."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_activity

[Varmint Al]

Good Hunting... from Varmint Al

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

More from the comments:

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William Astley says:

May 2, 2012 at 7:40 pm

There are cycles of warming, followed by cooling and in some cases abrupt cooling in the paleoclimatic record that correlate with cosmogenic isotope changes. All of the observational data points to the sun as the fundamental driver of the cyclic climate changes, including the very large, very rapid, Younger Dryas (Heinrich events) climate change events, that are capable of terminating interglacial periods. The unanswered question is how the solar magnetic cycle changes cause what is observed.

It will be interesting to watch this cycle end. This does appear to be an interruption to the solar magnetic cycle, as opposed to a slow down in the cycle.

The extreme AGW supporters should have left themselves a way out.

[ETL]

The Center for Sun-Climate Research at the DNSC (Danish National Space Center) investigates the connection between variations in the intensity of cosmic rays and climatic changes on Earth. This field of research has been given the name 'cosmoclimatology'"..."Cosmic ray intensities – and therefore cloudiness – keep changing because the Sun's magnetic field varies in its ability to repel cosmic rays coming from the Galaxy, before they can reach the Earth." :
http://www.spacecenter.dk/research/sun-climate
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Here's an excellent book out on the subject titled "The Chilling Stars, 2nd Edition: A Cosmic View of Climate Change". It's written by one of the top scientists advancing the theory (Henrik Svensmark, of the above mentioned Danish National Space Center/DNSC).

"The authors explain their theory that sub-atomic particles from exploded stars have more effect on the climate than manmade CO2."
http://www.sciencedaily.com/books/t/1840468157-the_chilling_stars_the_new_theory_of_climate_change.htm

Amazon Books: "The Chilling Stars, 2nd Edition: A Cosmic View of Climate Change"
http://www.amazon.com/Chilling-Stars-2nd-Cosmic-Climate/dp/1840468661 zs90]

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Thanks,...from Amazon:

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Book Description

Publication Date: December 15, 2011

Global warming is a household phrase these days, and it has led to a situation in which far too many educated people believe that mankind is hastening the destruction of the world through industry and civilization. But where is the evidence to support these claims? In this impossible-to-put-down book Harold Ambler presents the history of climate in ways that are accessible to the average Joe or Jill and which make it clear that in terms of temperature, weather, and climate we have been here before. Without compromising on scientific detail, Ambler spends each chapter focusing on a different facet of climate science including sunspots, tradewinds, computer modeling, and data collection. He also deftly connects political stakeholders in the global warming arena to various distortions of the science. This distillation of information gives the reader the ability to decide whether global warming is a tangible threat or a convenient propaganda tool.

Show More

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Ignore the implied link just above...goes back to the top of this thread.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Working link:

Don't Sell Your Coat: Surprising Truths About Climate Change

[Gadsden1st]

Are these predictions on a par with Hurricane predictions? Since a CME event which would be damaging would depend on its intensity and direction (pointed at the earth) when it occurs, it would seem less likely to occur, yet I have seen predictions we are “due” such an event. I lost everything in Charlie, which was a very small, but intense storm which was a direct hit for me. Aside from “Hype”, what is the general thoughts on CMEs?

[Jack of all Trades]

About a year or so ago, there were a few articles about the lack of evidence of solar cycle 25, which should be exhibiting itself at the poles, I believe. Any recent news on that?

[PapaBear3625]

Rather than peaking in 2013, I think we may be already at the peak.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

The NY Times took exception to the cosmic ray causing clouds theory the other day....see this thread:

Clouds’ Effect on Climate Change Is Last Bastion for Dissenters

Actually they didn't think clouds matter so neither does the sun having any impact on cosmic rays causing clouds matter.

[muawiyah]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2879047/posts ~ kind of an update on the author's research ~ he's got his tight correlations now and lab work to back it all up.

Gonna' get right chilly ya hear

[spokeshave]

There was an article last month about the sun’s magnetic field splitting.....last time this occured was during the Maunder Minimum if I remember correctly.

[FreeAtlanta]

I love this chart;

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

From the NY Times article see Link above.....

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Some politicians have welcomed that message, regularly calling Dr. Lindzen and a handful of other contrarian scientists before Congressional committees. During a hearing before a House subcommittee, Representative Dana Rohrabacher, a California Republican and vocal global warming skeptic, complained that “in the scientific community, there are people trying to tell us that we have got to accept draconian changes in our way of life mandated by law because the CO2 that we are emitting is going to cause drastic consequences to the planet’s climate.”

He repeatedly sought affirmation from Dr. Lindzen for his views, and got it.

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Dana is my Congressman.....

[ETL]

I believe that a new sunspot cycle technically begins when the magnetic polarity of appearing sunspot pairs reverses. The ‘spots’ are the cross sections of twisted magnetic field lines which poke, or ‘loop’, out of the Sun’s surface. They are dark because they are comparatively cooler than the surrounding solar surface. Their main effect on Earth climate is an indirect one involving charged particles from deep space [galactic cosmic rays] and the sun’s ability to repel them. The sun’s ability various with its fluctuating magnetic cycle.

[Jack of all Trades]

Here's the current magnetic field butterfly diagram from the same website referenced in the original above. Not sure what we can make of it except the poles have not yet reversed from cycle 22. The current conditions don't look very atypical to my untrained eye.