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Posted on 07/04/2012 1:49:37 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Note: See also the 1997 regime change in global climate data by the same method, here
I’m happy to report that something I recognized and reported back in 2008 related to solar data has been independently confirmed by another source, and was a surprise when it showed up in my inbox two days ago.
Readers may recall that for some time I’ve been pointing out a strange anomaly in the Solar Geomagnetic Index that occurred in October 2005. In a story I wrote on Feb 13th, 2008 titled Where have all the sunspots gone? I plotted the Ap data and pointed out the event.
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I wrote then:
What is most interesting about the Geomagnetic Average Planetary Index graph above is what happened around October 2005. Notice the sharp drop in the magnetic index and the continuance at low levels.
This looks much like a “step function” that I see on GISS surface temperature graphs when a station has been relocated to a cooler measurement environment. In the case of the sun, it appears this indicates that something abruptly “switched off” in the inner workings of the solar dynamo. Note that in the prior months, the magnetic index was ramping up a bit with more activity, then it simply dropped and stayed mostly flat.
Since then, we’ve seen announcements like this:
BREAKING – major AAS solar announcement: Sun’s Fading Spots Signal Big Drop in Solar Activity
Posted on June 14, 2011 by Anthony Watts
See the official press release here – “All three of these lines of research to point to the familiar sunspot cycle shutting down for a while.”
Dr. Sam Outcalt : Emeritus Professor of Physical Geography, University of Michigan sent me this graph two days ago, showing his application of Hurst Rescaling to the Ap Solar Magnetic Index data. Using that method, he has independently identified the “step function switch off” I reported in Feb 2008:
The major regime transition is at the maximum of the integral at 2005.71, which corresponds to October 2005, the same date I identified.
Clearly the sun entered into a magnetic funk then, and has yet to come out of it.
We live in interesting times.
For more on Hurst ReScaling, see this paper: SIO_HurstReScale
UPDATE: As I expected he would, Dr. Leif Svalgaard takes exception to this characterization of the identification of October 2005 being a regime changepoint, saying:
While I agree that the sun is going quiet, the ‘step change’ is spurious. It is mainly due to a sporadic, single magnetic storm in September 2005: http://hirweb.nict.go.jp/sedoss/solact3/do?d=2005%2c09%2c04 and here is the next rotation: http://hirweb.nict.go.jp/sedoss/solact3/do?d=2005%2c10%2c01 You can find many such steps.
Such step changes happens all the time: http://www.leif.org/research/Ap-1844-now.png They are just weather, not climate.
I don’t think his analogy holds promise, because after the step change the “climate” of the solar dynamo stayed low, and then produced the lowest value in the record going back to 1844. See Leif’s graph (click to enlarge) which I’ve annotated:
While this is akin to the sustained drop starting in early 1871, clearly this was something new in the entire record.If we use smoothing to remove what Leif describes as weather noise, and magnify, we can see how this looks to be unique in the last century of data:
While it could be argued that this was a “weather” event, the facts remain that:
While I defer to Dr. Svalgaard’s overall superior knowledge on the dynamics of sun, and agree there are many sharp transitions in the Ap record, this looks to me to be a step change event of merit based on the factors listed above. I’ve yet to see a fully convincing explanation that this was a spurious event rather than a regime changepoint. But, I remain open to seeing such an explanation.
Meanwhile the Sun is up to some major changes it appears.
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Dr. Lurtz says:
My Explanation:
a) Hydrogen burning occurs on the surface of the Sun’s Core.
b) Hot Sun [more fusion], Core expands making more H available from the Radiative Zone.
c) When the amount of H becomes less available [near the Core's surface] , the Core starts to shrink [less fusion] and the Sun becomes cooler.
d) Core shrinks until a new equilibrium is found [the Core is growing by fits and leaps -> it is the waste volume for burned H, that is, He].
e) Repeat the process.
Hot Sun [more fusion], massive inflowing H currents. Cool Sun [less fusion]. less inflowing H currents. Hot Sun, the H currents generate massive magnetic fields and produce Sun Spots. Cool Sun, the H currents are less, the magnetic field declines and, possibly, no Sun Spots.
During the Maunder Minimum, the Sun was cool for ~50 years. Faint traces of a 2×180 year cycle in the climate record [?? is there such a thing ??].
“Major regime transition” -> Sun cooling, core shrinking.
Don't be silly. Al Gore assured me that the sun doesn't affect the earth's temperature, and he's a Nobel Prize winner - the same recognition that Obama himself earned - so he must be right.
Regime change? I’ll gladly wear a few more sweaters if it means Obama is out of office!
On a more serious note - if one looks at the long-term cycles of the interglacial warm periods - we are past due (cycle wise) for another REAL ice age.
More on the 2012 US heat wave – not so hot if you look around at other locations
June actually ended up cooler than the normal in BOS (Boston) (-1.25F) and even NYC (Central Park -0.4F) and southeast despite the heat blast the end of the month (-2.0F in Jacksonville). Dulles despite the late month heat wave was SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (-0.6F) while DCA nearer the White House and Congress was (+1.1F) and Atlanta despite the all time record was just +0.1F.
Here is reality, not MSM fantasy land.
Just got off the phone with my daughter,....she is up in the High Desert just above the Cajon pass and it is Hot up there....) 100+
Rather cool and overcast down here ...75 at the moment.
More from the comments:
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More from the comments:
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And of course the sunspot index is very high right now, and the sun is quite active.
Article is from today but surreally ignores solar data since 2008....
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Leif Svalgaard says:
sean2829 says:
July 4, 2012 at 7:29 am
three questions. First, has the probability between Dalton vs. Maunder type events changed in his opinion for the next few decades, second, what type of evidence does he have beyond the L&P effect to support that probability and third, will there any any peer reviewed publications in the near future to discuss where the sun might be headed?
As the low solar activity predicted by us has come to pass, a small cottage industry [with several 'peer reviewed' papers - for what they are worth] has sprung up about a possible coming Maunder minimum. There is little doubt that at some time in the future a new Grand minimum will be coming our way. Whether it will happen real soon is anybody’s guess. At a recent international workshop that I convened this question was central. You can find most of the discussion chronicled in the presentations here: http://ssnworkshop.wikia.com/wiki/1st_ISSI_Workshop
The contribution by Lockwood has more references.
Calculating the number of sunspots is such a crude numeric mrasuremebt, ....but how else can one made guesstimates about what the Sun is doing?
They are predicting 103 on Saturday for my mid Atlantic location. Seems like global cooling is on vacation. Meanwhile I have just started the Atkins Diet, Induction Phase, so I can wear my bikini at the beach soon. It worked before, but I got careless. Wish me luck.
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insturmental from the movie of the same name 
