Posted on 08/21/2012 7:16:24 AM PDT by topher
Very interesting! Thanks for the lesson....
Well.....this thing is moving west as I predicted. :( It just might end up in Louisiana after all.
Here's why it's moving west in the 3/5-day track:
The SHIPS model (white) is pulling it out over the central Gulf, but as I've said numerous times before, the GFS (Red in this model) is historically the MOST accurate predictor and has not changed at all over the last 24 hours. When GFS AND GFDL (Blue in this model) are in close agreement, there's general consensus as to modeling.
Saturday will be the big day for predictions.
OK......Saturday I’ll be back to give you kudo’s or grief. LOL
This is a longer term model used by all programs. Notice there's a purple line streaking out into the Gulf that's roughly on the same path as the SHIPS model (white line) in the last picture? Even in the long term models, they're predicting a shift to the north and to the east. It's really a matter of time. There are several factors in the upper atmosphere that will push this north and east and away from the central/western Gulf.
I'd bet the farm that LA is free and clear from this.
I’ll take that bet. Where is this farm :)
Been sick since Friday. I’m still not gonna concede until this thing makes landfall. The fact that the GFS puts it into LA doesn’t bode well for my prediction, but it bodes very well for the folks in the midwest suffering from drought.
Hope you are feeling better....
....so anxious to see my new farm...
Jeez....you’re not even going to congratulate or acknowledge me?
There’s still a chance... I think it’s gonna reverse course and come right back to Tampa!
/sarcasm
I don’t think there’s a need for congratulations. I’m sorry that NOLA got hit again. Hope all is well there.
You’re right...not a congratulatory event. But .....I’m very happy I won a farm....
Oh yeah... about that farm...
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