Posted on 10/10/2012 3:42:25 PM PDT by Perdogg
I am so appalled by this late shift in method that I will not cite another Gallup poll in a column between now & Election Day.— Jay Cost (@JayCostTWS) October 10, 2012
ping
Meaning???
I assume they’ve “changed their polling method” so as to guarantee that Obama is never less than eight or nine points ahead of Romney.
I am trying to find out.
What did the change this time? Does axelrod have anything to do with it... again?
He says they’ve changed their method to give Obama what appears to be a 3-4 point boost in job approval.
Please provide a link.
Never mind that: Who’s Jay Cost, and why should I care what he thinks?
They have moved to 50-50 landline-cellphone from a 60-40 split.
I think it’s the correct move...more and more of us can only be reached via cellphones - that includes us Obama-despising Republicans!
I closely read Jay Cost’s “Horserace blog” eight years ago.
It was the most accurate of them all. The man is a genius
when it comes to anything having to do with elections. I hope
the Romney campaign seeks his advice.
Bump for later. I'd like to hear what happened.
All will be "undecided voters".
I agree with you. A lot of people are dumping the landlines because of the incessant sales calls in defiance of the Don’t Call Registry. I am on the registry, and I get so many calls I turned on the “Do Not Disturb” feature of my land line, and only use it for outgoing calls and FAXes.
As for surveys, I usually refuse to answer, but sometimes, if I have the time, I lie like a rug. I hate polls.
Apparently he is upset that this is in response to criticism from covnservatives
and we should Google all of their names and find their Facebooks and Twitters and see.
Jay Cost is referencing an article over at HuffPo where it looks like Gallup is changing the racial makeup of its polls to more closely match the 2010 census (more minority voters). Biggest problem is that they’re changing their methodology 4 weeks before the election.
https://twitter.com/JayCostTWS/status/256142152155934720
He’s referring to Gallup changing it’s racial mix, reducing caucasians.
Per the HuffPost article: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-abramowitz/dramatic-change-in-racial_b_1955143.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000008
No, I’m thinking that they’re changing based on criticism from the Left. Gallup is adding more minorities to their samples to more closely match the 2010 census.
They have moved to 50-50 landline-cellphone from a 60-40 split.
+++
I think it’s the correct move...more and more of us can only be reached via cellphones - that includes us Obama-despising Republicans!
++++++++
You may be right but for sure the change will increase the number of young people polled and decrease the number of older folk. That will improve Obama’s numbers.
I too question the motivation.
-PJ
So they added Obama Phones?
Apparently. LOL!
Yup, no one answers unsolicited calls on cells except stereotypical Obama voters.
They should be trying to match race to “likely voters” not census. Who cares what the people who don’t vote think?
I agree. Especially when these “minority” voters are probably non-citizens.
.......here's what will actually happen.......
All will be democrats who claim to be "undecided voters".
Bend over the fix is in....
We got rid of our home phone once everyone in the fam had their own cell phone.
However, I don’t know anyone who answers calls on their cell phone that come up with an unknown no.... especially not my kids. They’ll text the no. back on occasion asking “who is this?”
Thanks Perdogg.......you do good work here and I for one appreciate it!
Then I hope they don't mind being trampled by the caucsians on election day.....
I expect it’s a short-term attempt to keep Obama’s numbers up just until the next debate.
It’ll be a touchy-feely town hall type without any substance where he should do much better.
I've been saying since the day after the debate that the biggest mistake Obozo has made in this campaign was not making sure there were two Presidential debates then the Veep debate.
Now Obozo has to endure two weeks of Romney's momentum before he gets another shot at a side by side comparison......
Albeit with a stacked room full of democrats "claiming to be undecided" and chosen by Gallup who it under threat of litigation by the Attorney General and the Justice department.....
BUT I'm sure it's gonna be fair, don't you?
And Candy Crowley’s network has a multi-million dollar labor judgement appeal before Obama’s NLRB...
So I’m sure it’ll be extra fair!
If Romney somehow does do well, then with all the polling adjustments Obama will lose his “bandwagon effect” which Cost talks about a lot, and plummet to a huge loss.
But ‘fairness’ can prevent that.
Last week, Gallup increased their non-white percentage by about 3.5% to better match the US Census, despite an absence of any evidence that this would match the voting population better than their previous model. According to White House emails released under FOIA, this may have been in response to pressure from the White House to cave in or face retaliation in unrelated court cases.
.
Minorities also have huge convicted felon/ex-con rate/percentages - they cannot vote
Obamaphones do not equal actual possible voters -
But in South Carolina I see the Federal juicial panel has decided to allow mandatory Voter-Photo-ID
- In 2013 -
.
Special Ops Vets will be closely monitoring polling places
- Wear you NRA ballcaps and a blue or black jacket and “linger” and “lurk” outside and inside the polls
.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.