Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Vanity - Gallup has changed polling method per Jay Cost on twitter
Twitter | 10.10.12

Posted on 10/10/2012 3:42:25 PM PDT by Perdogg

I am so appalled by this late shift in method that I will not cite another Gallup poll in a column between now & Election Day.— Jay Cost (@JayCostTWS) October 10, 2012



TOPICS: Chit/Chat
KEYWORDS: 2012electionbias; 2012polls; cookedthebooks; dnctalkingpoints; gallup; galluppolls; howtostealanelection; pravdamedia; zogbyism

1 posted on 10/10/2012 3:42:30 PM PDT by Perdogg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: keithbacker; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; ...

ping


2 posted on 10/10/2012 3:44:38 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Meaning???


3 posted on 10/10/2012 3:45:18 PM PDT by pgkdan (A vote for anyone but Romney is a vote for obama. GO MITT!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

I assume they’ve “changed their polling method” so as to guarantee that Obama is never less than eight or nine points ahead of Romney.


4 posted on 10/10/2012 3:45:40 PM PDT by Steely Tom (If the Constitution can be a living document, I guess a corporation can be a person.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: pgkdan

I am trying to find out.


5 posted on 10/10/2012 3:46:25 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

What did the change this time? Does axelrod have anything to do with it... again?


6 posted on 10/10/2012 3:46:36 PM PDT by barmag25
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg
I assume this change in methodology has Mr. Axelrod's approval.
7 posted on 10/10/2012 3:47:31 PM PDT by verum ago (Some people must truly be in love, for only love can be so blind.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

He says they’ve changed their method to give Obama what appears to be a 3-4 point boost in job approval.


8 posted on 10/10/2012 3:48:28 PM PDT by NoobRep
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: NoobRep

Please provide a link.


9 posted on 10/10/2012 3:51:17 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: pgkdan

Never mind that: Who’s Jay Cost, and why should I care what he thinks?


10 posted on 10/10/2012 3:51:59 PM PDT by Cyber Liberty (Obama considers the Third World morally superior to the United States.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: NoobRep
Jay Cost ‏@JayCostTWS What if the alterations basically addressed criticisms offered by one side in a hotly contested political battle? Expand

27m John Podhoretz John Podhoretz ‏@jpodhoretz @JayCostTWS what are you saying? how dare you. Expand

23m Jennifer Rubin Jennifer Rubin ‏@JRubinBlogger @jpodhoretz @JayCostTWS aw, let 'em fry their reputation, besides they'll move in line with everyone else in final week Expand

18m Tampa Tampa ‏@S1CT @JRubinBlogger @jpodhoretz @JayCostTWS Gallup should have published an explanation if that's what they did. Expand

17m John Podhoretz John Podhoretz ‏@jpodhoretz @S1CT @JRubinBlogger @JayCostTWS they have Expand

15m Jay Cost Jay Cost ‏@JayCostTWS @jpodhoretz @S1CT @JRubinBlogger They can write 100k words in defense. The point is: you don't do this 5 weeks before an election. PERIOD Hide conversation


11 posted on 10/10/2012 3:52:02 PM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: NoobRep

They have moved to 50-50 landline-cellphone from a 60-40 split.

I think it’s the correct move...more and more of us can only be reached via cellphones - that includes us Obama-despising Republicans!


12 posted on 10/10/2012 3:52:02 PM PDT by JerseyRepub (I voted for John Kerry before I voted against him!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

https://twitter.com/JayCostTWS


13 posted on 10/10/2012 3:52:48 PM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: pgkdan
Jay Cost ‏@JayCostTWS (Except of course tomorrow when I detail exactly what's happened) Collapse
14 posted on 10/10/2012 3:53:48 PM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

I found it:

https://twitter.com/JayCostTWS


15 posted on 10/10/2012 3:54:24 PM PDT by ConjunctionJunction
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

I closely read Jay Cost’s “Horserace blog” eight years ago.
It was the most accurate of them all. The man is a genius
when it comes to anything having to do with elections. I hope
the Romney campaign seeks his advice.


16 posted on 10/10/2012 3:54:40 PM PDT by odawg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg
I am trying to find out.

Bump for later. I'd like to hear what happened.

17 posted on 10/10/2012 3:54:59 PM PDT by justlurking (The only remedy for a bad guy with a gun is a good WOMAN (Sgt. Kimberly Munley) with a gun)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg
According to the Commission on Presidential Debates, Gallup is selecting the questioners for next weeks Romney/Obama town hall style debate.

All will be "undecided voters".

18 posted on 10/10/2012 3:55:37 PM PDT by Churchillspirit (9/11/2001. NEVER FORGET.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: JerseyRepub

I agree with you. A lot of people are dumping the landlines because of the incessant sales calls in defiance of the Don’t Call Registry. I am on the registry, and I get so many calls I turned on the “Do Not Disturb” feature of my land line, and only use it for outgoing calls and FAXes.

As for surveys, I usually refuse to answer, but sometimes, if I have the time, I lie like a rug. I hate polls.


19 posted on 10/10/2012 3:55:55 PM PDT by Cyber Liberty (Obama considers the Third World morally superior to the United States.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: odawg

Apparently he is upset that this is in response to criticism from covnservatives


20 posted on 10/10/2012 3:58:46 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Churchillspirit

and we should Google all of their names and find their Facebooks and Twitters and see.


21 posted on 10/10/2012 4:00:22 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Jay Cost is referencing an article over at HuffPo where it looks like Gallup is changing the racial makeup of its polls to more closely match the 2010 census (more minority voters). Biggest problem is that they’re changing their methodology 4 weeks before the election.

https://twitter.com/JayCostTWS/status/256142152155934720


22 posted on 10/10/2012 4:02:21 PM PDT by ConjunctionJunction
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

He’s referring to Gallup changing it’s racial mix, reducing caucasians.
Per the HuffPost article: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-abramowitz/dramatic-change-in-racial_b_1955143.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000008


23 posted on 10/10/2012 4:03:51 PM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: GeronL

No, I’m thinking that they’re changing based on criticism from the Left. Gallup is adding more minorities to their samples to more closely match the 2010 census.


24 posted on 10/10/2012 4:04:33 PM PDT by ConjunctionJunction
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: JerseyRepub

They have moved to 50-50 landline-cellphone from a 60-40 split.
+++
I think it’s the correct move...more and more of us can only be reached via cellphones - that includes us Obama-despising Republicans!

++++++++
You may be right but for sure the change will increase the number of young people polled and decrease the number of older folk. That will improve Obama’s numbers.

I too question the motivation.


25 posted on 10/10/2012 4:07:05 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg
Who gives a darn, get out the vote, act like we are 12 points down. Go, Fight, Win!
26 posted on 10/10/2012 4:10:06 PM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: JerseyRepub
Is that regular cellphones or Obamaphones? ;-)

-PJ

27 posted on 10/10/2012 4:10:23 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( It doesn't I naturally when you're not natural born.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: TornadoAlley3
I wanted people to know because there are ABRs, Eeeyores, and pant-wetters on FR who will post every bit of negative polling news to dispirit us and I wanted people to be aware of this so that they could evaluate any piece of Gallup dung.
28 posted on 10/10/2012 4:13:18 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: ConjunctionJunction

So they added Obama Phones?


29 posted on 10/10/2012 4:13:18 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: GeronL

Apparently. LOL!


30 posted on 10/10/2012 4:15:59 PM PDT by ConjunctionJunction
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: InterceptPoint

Yup, no one answers unsolicited calls on cells except stereotypical Obama voters.


31 posted on 10/10/2012 4:35:52 PM PDT by Cruising For Freedom (Don't be the proof that MSM PsyOps works.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: ConjunctionJunction

They should be trying to match race to “likely voters” not census. Who cares what the people who don’t vote think?


32 posted on 10/10/2012 4:41:37 PM PDT by Little Ray (AGAINST Obama in the General.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: Little Ray

I agree. Especially when these “minority” voters are probably non-citizens.


33 posted on 10/10/2012 4:49:31 PM PDT by ConjunctionJunction
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: Churchillspirit
All will be "undecided voters".

.......here's what will actually happen.......

All will be democrats who claim to be "undecided voters".

Bend over the fix is in....

34 posted on 10/10/2012 5:01:53 PM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: InterceptPoint

We got rid of our home phone once everyone in the fam had their own cell phone.

However, I don’t know anyone who answers calls on their cell phone that come up with an unknown no.... especially not my kids. They’ll text the no. back on occasion asking “who is this?”


35 posted on 10/10/2012 5:02:21 PM PDT by Katya (Homo Nosce Te Ipsum)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Thanks Perdogg.......you do good work here and I for one appreciate it!


36 posted on 10/10/2012 5:04:14 PM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: mrsmith
He’s referring to Gallup changing it’s racial mix, reducing caucasians

Then I hope they don't mind being trampled by the caucsians on election day.....


37 posted on 10/10/2012 5:09:26 PM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: thingumbob

I expect it’s a short-term attempt to keep Obama’s numbers up just until the next debate.
It’ll be a touchy-feely town hall type without any substance where he should do much better.


38 posted on 10/10/2012 5:17:36 PM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]

To: mrsmith
You are correct about the short-term attempt to stop the bleeding.

I've been saying since the day after the debate that the biggest mistake Obozo has made in this campaign was not making sure there were two Presidential debates then the Veep debate.

Now Obozo has to endure two weeks of Romney's momentum before he gets another shot at a side by side comparison......

Albeit with a stacked room full of democrats "claiming to be undecided" and chosen by Gallup who it under threat of litigation by the Attorney General and the Justice department.....

BUT I'm sure it's gonna be fair, don't you?

39 posted on 10/10/2012 5:33:49 PM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: thingumbob

And Candy Crowley’s network has a multi-million dollar labor judgement appeal before Obama’s NLRB...
So I’m sure it’ll be extra fair!

If Romney somehow does do well, then with all the polling adjustments Obama will lose his “bandwagon effect” which Cost talks about a lot, and plummet to a huge loss.

But ‘fairness’ can prevent that.


40 posted on 10/10/2012 5:53:25 PM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 39 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Last week, Gallup increased their non-white percentage by about 3.5% to better match the US Census, despite an absence of any evidence that this would match the voting population better than their previous model. According to White House emails released under FOIA, this may have been in response to pressure from the White House to cave in or face retaliation in unrelated court cases.


41 posted on 10/10/2012 6:37:21 PM PDT by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ConjunctionJunction; holdonnow

.

Minorities also have huge convicted felon/ex-con rate/percentages - they cannot vote

Obamaphones do not equal actual possible voters -

But in South Carolina I see the Federal juicial panel has decided to allow mandatory Voter-Photo-ID

- In 2013 -

.

Special Ops Vets will be closely monitoring polling places

- Wear you NRA ballcaps and a blue or black jacket and “linger” and “lurk” outside and inside the polls

.


42 posted on 10/11/2012 5:27:04 AM PDT by devolve (----- ------- -CHEESEBURGER_CHEESEBURGER_CHEESEBURGER- ----------------------------)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/09/26/the-reality-of-2012-voter-turnout-the-white-voter/


43 posted on 10/11/2012 10:26:00 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson