Skip to comments.Intrade: Obama 65%, Romney 35%: how come? splain it to me pls
Posted on 10/17/2012 8:44:43 AM PDT by beebuster2000
I dont get it. Intrade saying Obama a prohibitive favorite. not even close. why?
They may not mean ‘squat’ in terms of predictive accuracy but they sure as hell mean something when it comes to their propaganda effect. I’ve seen Intrade used by the MSM and if to the uniformed ‘voter’ is helps to maintain the inevitability of Obama’s pending win.
I happen to think Intrade's wrong in this case, and that Romney is priced very cheaply (if I had an active Intrade account, I'd buy as much Romney as I could at ~35, and would have bought even more a few weeks back at ~15-20). But, it's important not to conflate the predicted chance of victory with the predicted margin (which Intrade does not address).
The same people that bet on Intrade buy lottery tickets. And they vote Obama.
Intrade is the equivalent of a bar bet -- albeit a few thousand of them bundled together.
Most of those bets were made long ago. The only thing holding them up is pride, i.e. unwilling to concede at this point.
Legally, US residents can't bet at Intrade, at least from within the US. So, most of the people betting there are outside the US, and know nothing about the election than what the media tells them.
Stop worrying about it. It doesn't matter. You can bet on all kinds of things at Intrade, including the weather, earthquakes, and which Supreme Court justice will resign next.
Intrade doesn't predict anything. It's simply a bunch of people gambling on something besides sports or casino games.
I mean, If I bet on Romney with such low numbers (odds?), don't I win more than if I bet on a favorite (and assuming HE wins) ?
Two weeks ago I went to the site with the intent of buying contracts. The registration was a nightmare and included asking me to send a copy of my passport. I’m not doing that and my guess is most good American conservatives share my feelings causing the market to not reflect the true feelings of most in the USA.
Mormons don’t gamble?? So they are betting on the Obama voters EBT/Food Stamp money to be gambled on Obama....LOL
Intrade is open to foreign investors, many of whom are incredibly ignorant about American politics.
I guarantee that most Europeans have no idea who Romney really is, and are pretty ignorant of Obama as well other than he’s black and sucks up to them. And those who do know are political junkies and have their biases.
Leftists like to ridicule Americans as ignorant of the world, but other countries are just as ignorant,except the reality is that they have to know who is President out of the necessity of American influence in the world.
Agree. I’m guessing they need your passport info to confirm you’re not a US citizen. I’d buy a lot of Romney if I could.
If I had to guess, the people currently buying Obama contracts probably view Romney's surge in the polls following the first debate as a temporary bump, rather than a structural change in the race (or, if they think Romney's chances have increased, they think the decrease in the price of Obama contracts has out-paced the decrease in Obama's chances). If that's your view of the race, I could see how Obama contracts would look cheap now, at least relative to where they were before the first debate.
Intrade had repeal of Obamacare at 75% two minutes before the opinion was published.
You nailed it perfectly. Since Americans can’t use Intrade this is about as insightful as Pravda. I don’t understand why anyone pays attention to this; it’s like taking polls of Europeans only.
I have seen this come up each time Intrade comes up and it doesn't make sense to me. It was struck down as unconstitutional. It was changed to a tax and then upheld.
You are correct. A $65 bet on Obama would pay $100 if he wins, a profit of $35, and a percentage gain of 35/65 = 54%. A $35 bet on Romney would pay the same $100 if he wins, a profit of $65, or 65/35 = 185%.
There are key businesses that have money to gain from being pro-Democrat, intrade is one of them. Honestly, I can summarize the following parts of our nation that are biased so bad to the Democrats they practically kiss their $%^
1) Wall Street
2) Any business that received a bailout
3) Majority of Unionized Labor
4) The majority of billionaires and multi-millionaires
That pretty much sums it up.
Isn’t that gambler disenfranchisement?
“Explain it to me”
Because it’s meaningless garbage.
Glad I could help.
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