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Intrade: Obama 65%, Romney 35%: how come? splain it to me pls
intrade ^ | october 17, 2012 | intrade

Posted on 10/17/2012 8:44:43 AM PDT by beebuster2000

I dont get it. Intrade saying Obama a prohibitive favorite. not even close. why?


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1 posted on 10/17/2012 8:44:52 AM PDT by beebuster2000
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To: beebuster2000

They had the Fraud up by FIVE TO ONE just a few weeks ago.


2 posted on 10/17/2012 8:46:11 AM PDT by treetopsandroofs (Had FDR been GOP, there would have been no World Wars, just "The Great War" and "Roosevelt's Wars".)
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To: beebuster2000

Investors take cheating into account.


3 posted on 10/17/2012 8:46:56 AM PDT by Ingtar (Everyone complains about the weather, but only Liberals try to legislate it.)
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To: beebuster2000

Intrade is easily manipulated. Keep in mind that intrade was above 75% in favor of obamacare being ruled unconstitutional.....we all know how that worked.


4 posted on 10/17/2012 8:47:11 AM PDT by HerrBlucher (Praise to the Lord the Almighty the King of Creation)
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To: beebuster2000

Setup... a contest with a prearranged outcome... or at least the attempt...


5 posted on 10/17/2012 8:48:11 AM PDT by dps.inspect (rage against the Obama machine...)
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To: beebuster2000

The predictive powers of tea leaves, belly button lint, and Intrade are approximately equal.

In other words, who cares.


6 posted on 10/17/2012 8:48:31 AM PDT by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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To: beebuster2000

They are betting on the ‘spirited’ Obama performance will boost the actual voting from his base.

Save the Left from massive forgery, micky mouse might get caught way too many times.


7 posted on 10/17/2012 8:48:35 AM PDT by Sir Napsalot (Pravda + Useful Idiots = CCCP; JournOList + Useful Idiots = DopeyChangey!)
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To: beebuster2000

I’ve been asking the same thing for the past week or so. Late last week he Obama dropping into the high 50’s and has slowly been moving up since then. I DO NOT GET IT!!??

What information out there are people using to get them to BUY Obama contracts >60??


8 posted on 10/17/2012 8:48:49 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: beebuster2000

Evidently Obama’s fans are fonder of gambling than Romney’s fans. The numbers are based on the customers’ bets, not on what the Intrade people think.


9 posted on 10/17/2012 8:49:11 AM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: beebuster2000

Looks like an opportunity to make a little coin to me...


10 posted on 10/17/2012 8:49:27 AM PDT by BreezyDog (PLAN A: A Peaceful Restoration of the Republic.....PLAN B: A Restoration of the Republic)
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To: beebuster2000

This is a UK based gambling site, not a liquid market. These numbers don’t mean squat, and I’m surprised RCP uses them!


11 posted on 10/17/2012 8:49:26 AM PDT by zencycler
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To: beebuster2000

Romney traded at around 20% on Intrade just two or three weeks ago.

If you didn’t buy then, then don’t complain now.

He briefly went up as high as 41% a few days ago, but has gone down again since last night’s “debate”.

As always, if you think the other investors are wrong, then there’s money to be made.


12 posted on 10/17/2012 8:50:12 AM PDT by epic stache
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To: Cicero

Or, of course, Soros and similar folks may be laying a lot of money on the Bamster, just to manipulate the numbers.


13 posted on 10/17/2012 8:50:39 AM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: beebuster2000

Since InTrade requires that “investors” actually purchase shares and trade them, for real money, no one in the US can participate any longer. So, the odds are driven by people outside the US. Having lived overseas for many years, I don’t believe folks in other countries just don’t understand the subtleties of our politics. They certainly don’t “get” the electoral college and our form of federalism. I know, for instance, that Israelis are convinced that Obama can’t lose.


14 posted on 10/17/2012 8:50:47 AM PDT by ConservativeVoice
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To: beebuster2000

Easy to manipulate Intrade as shown here:

http://datechguyblog.com/2012/09/03/intrade-can-be-moved-by-less-than-a-carrotouple-of-peas/


15 posted on 10/17/2012 8:51:21 AM PDT by CreviceTool ( Obama is standing above the country above - above the world, he is sort of a God = Evan Thomas)
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To: ConservativeVoice

Sorry, I meant to write “I don’t believe folks in other countries understand the subtleties of our politics.” Ignore the double negative.


16 posted on 10/17/2012 8:52:02 AM PDT by ConservativeVoice
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To: beebuster2000

What percentage of the Obama warchest do you estimate it would take to push the Intrade price on his winning up, say 20 points? Not very much.

I’m guessing the Intrade price is now ‘Rat propaganda, which suggests it’s time to buy Romney on Intrade if you’re into such speculation with your money.


17 posted on 10/17/2012 8:52:08 AM PDT by The_Reader_David (And when they behead your own people in the wars which are to come, then you will know...)
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To: beebuster2000

Don’t know, don’t care.

I’m busy knocking on doors and trying to get the vote out.


18 posted on 10/17/2012 8:52:12 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: beebuster2000

Intrade had also the Patriots beating the NY Giants in the Super Bowl - both times.


19 posted on 10/17/2012 8:52:12 AM PDT by PMAS (All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing)
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To: beebuster2000

Obama is such a weak candidate that the Dems and foreign supporters there pulling out all stops to get him elected, including manipulation of the polls and Intrade.

I also include the possibility that somebody is pumping and dumping.


20 posted on 10/17/2012 8:52:45 AM PDT by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults.)
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To: zencycler

They may not mean ‘squat’ in terms of predictive accuracy but they sure as hell mean something when it comes to their propaganda effect. I’ve seen Intrade used by the MSM and if to the uniformed ‘voter’ is helps to maintain the inevitability of Obama’s pending win.


21 posted on 10/17/2012 8:53:17 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: beebuster2000
Intrade just a reflection of the “conventional wisdom” of the liberal media. Which is, “Yeah this race is going to be closer than we thought, but Obama will still pull it out in the end.” I think the premise is based more on wishful thinking than logic, considering undecideds break for the challenger.
22 posted on 10/17/2012 8:53:18 AM PDT by apillar
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To: beebuster2000
Intrade's odds have nothing to do with, and don't purport to predict, how close the end result will be. In other words, if 65% of the people on Intrade (or, rather, 65% of the money traded on Intrade) were to believe that Obama will win the election by a margin of 50.1% to 49.9%, then the Intrade margin would be 65-35, not 50.1-49.9.

I happen to think Intrade's wrong in this case, and that Romney is priced very cheaply (if I had an active Intrade account, I'd buy as much Romney as I could at ~35, and would have bought even more a few weeks back at ~15-20). But, it's important not to conflate the predicted chance of victory with the predicted margin (which Intrade does not address).

23 posted on 10/17/2012 8:53:43 AM PDT by Conscience of a Conservative
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To: beebuster2000

The same people that bet on Intrade buy lottery tickets. And they vote Obama.


24 posted on 10/17/2012 8:54:58 AM PDT by albie ("Work as if you were to live a hundred years. Pray as if you were to die tomorrow." Benjamin Frankli)
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To: beebuster2000
Yet another concern troll.

Intrade is the equivalent of a bar bet -- albeit a few thousand of them bundled together.

Most of those bets were made long ago. The only thing holding them up is pride, i.e. unwilling to concede at this point.

Legally, US residents can't bet at Intrade, at least from within the US. So, most of the people betting there are outside the US, and know nothing about the election than what the media tells them.

Stop worrying about it. It doesn't matter. You can bet on all kinds of things at Intrade, including the weather, earthquakes, and which Supreme Court justice will resign next.

Intrade doesn't predict anything. It's simply a bunch of people gambling on something besides sports or casino games.

25 posted on 10/17/2012 8:55:15 AM PDT by justlurking (The only remedy for a bad guy with a gun is a good WOMAN (Sgt. Kimberly Munley) with a gun)
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To: beebuster2000
I don't know gambling, but isn't a bet FOR Romney a BIG winner (when he wins) ?

I mean, If I bet on Romney with such low numbers (odds?), don't I win more than if I bet on a favorite (and assuming HE wins) ?

26 posted on 10/17/2012 8:55:15 AM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true)
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To: ConservativeVoice

Two weeks ago I went to the site with the intent of buying contracts. The registration was a nightmare and included asking me to send a copy of my passport. I’m not doing that and my guess is most good American conservatives share my feelings causing the market to not reflect the true feelings of most in the USA.


27 posted on 10/17/2012 8:55:20 AM PDT by crosslink (Moderates should play in the middle of a busy street)
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To: beebuster2000

Mormons don’t gamble?? So they are betting on the Obama voters EBT/Food Stamp money to be gambled on Obama....LOL


28 posted on 10/17/2012 8:55:26 AM PDT by jakerobins
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To: beebuster2000

Intrade is open to foreign investors, many of whom are incredibly ignorant about American politics.

I guarantee that most Europeans have no idea who Romney really is, and are pretty ignorant of Obama as well other than he’s black and sucks up to them. And those who do know are political junkies and have their biases.

Leftists like to ridicule Americans as ignorant of the world, but other countries are just as ignorant,except the reality is that they have to know who is President out of the necessity of American influence in the world.


29 posted on 10/17/2012 8:56:40 AM PDT by Shadow44
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To: crosslink

Agree. I’m guessing they need your passport info to confirm you’re not a US citizen. I’d buy a lot of Romney if I could.


30 posted on 10/17/2012 8:57:55 AM PDT by ConservativeVoice
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To: beebuster2000
InTrade can be moved by less than a carrot
31 posted on 10/17/2012 8:58:56 AM PDT by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: tatown
What information out there are people using to get them to BUY Obama contracts >60??

If I had to guess, the people currently buying Obama contracts probably view Romney's surge in the polls following the first debate as a temporary bump, rather than a structural change in the race (or, if they think Romney's chances have increased, they think the decrease in the price of Obama contracts has out-paced the decrease in Obama's chances). If that's your view of the race, I could see how Obama contracts would look cheap now, at least relative to where they were before the first debate.

32 posted on 10/17/2012 8:59:23 AM PDT by Conscience of a Conservative
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To: beebuster2000

Intrade had repeal of Obamacare at 75% two minutes before the opinion was published.


33 posted on 10/17/2012 9:05:11 AM PDT by KevinB (We'll stop treating Obama like a dog when he stops treating us like a fire hydrant - Fred Grandy)
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To: ConservativeVoice

You nailed it perfectly. Since Americans can’t use Intrade this is about as insightful as Pravda. I don’t understand why anyone pays attention to this; it’s like taking polls of Europeans only.


34 posted on 10/17/2012 9:07:23 AM PDT by LRoggy (Peter's Son's Business)
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To: HerrBlucher
Intrade is easily manipulated. Keep in mind that intrade was above 75% in favor of obamacare being ruled unconstitutional.....we all know how that worked

I have seen this come up each time Intrade comes up and it doesn't make sense to me. It was struck down as unconstitutional. It was changed to a tax and then upheld.

35 posted on 10/17/2012 9:10:02 AM PDT by justice14 ("stand up defend or lay down and die")
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To: knarf
I don't know gambling, but isn't a bet FOR Romney a BIG winner (when he wins) ? I mean, If I bet on Romney with such low numbers (odds?), don't I win more than if I bet on a favorite (and assuming HE wins) ?

You are correct. A $65 bet on Obama would pay $100 if he wins, a profit of $35, and a percentage gain of 35/65 = 54%. A $35 bet on Romney would pay the same $100 if he wins, a profit of $65, or 65/35 = 185%.

36 posted on 10/17/2012 9:10:02 AM PDT by TruthShallSetYouFree (Benghazi murders due to spontaneous riot over a video. Or terrorism. Depends on the day.)
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To: beebuster2000

There are key businesses that have money to gain from being pro-Democrat, intrade is one of them. Honestly, I can summarize the following parts of our nation that are biased so bad to the Democrats they practically kiss their $%^

1) Wall Street
2) Any business that received a bailout
3) Majority of Unionized Labor
4) The majority of billionaires and multi-millionaires

That pretty much sums it up.


37 posted on 10/17/2012 9:10:32 AM PDT by Morpheus2009
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To: LRoggy

Passport needed?

Isn’t that gambler disenfranchisement?


38 posted on 10/17/2012 9:10:40 AM PDT by Professional
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To: beebuster2000
InTrade can be moved by less than a carrot

Freakonomics: Manipulation in Political Prediction Markets

39 posted on 10/17/2012 9:12:01 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the psychopath.)
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To: beebuster2000

“Explain it to me”

Because it’s meaningless garbage.

Glad I could help.


40 posted on 10/17/2012 9:12:38 AM PDT by Jim Noble (Diseases desperate grown are by desperate appliance relieved or not at all.)
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To: LRoggy

Americans cannot legally use it. I’ve noticed that it more or less tracks Nate Silvers’ prediction percentages.

Bottom line is who cares.. They had Kerry at 90% on Election Day 2004.


41 posted on 10/17/2012 9:14:18 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: beebuster2000

What is “a prohibitive favorite”?


42 posted on 10/17/2012 9:15:03 AM PDT by count-your-change (You don't have to be brilliant, not being stupid is enough.)
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To: justice14
I have seen this come up each time Intrade comes up and it doesn't make sense to me. It was struck down as unconstitutional. It was changed to a tax and then upheld.

It was not struck down as unconstitutional. It was upheld as constitutional. The Court said congress did not have authority under the commerce clause to force people to buy insurance, but did have the power under the taxing clause to impose a penalty upon them for failure to do so.

Anyway, the purpose of my post was not to argue the merits of the Obamacare decision, but to illustrate as others have said that Intrade is not a good indicator of outcomes.

43 posted on 10/17/2012 9:18:51 AM PDT by KevinB (We'll stop treating Obama like a dog when he stops treating us like a fire hydrant - Fred Grandy)
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To: justice14

Your picking nits.


44 posted on 10/17/2012 9:20:33 AM PDT by HerrBlucher (Praise to the Lord the Almighty the King of Creation)
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To: beebuster2000

A Lefty is delusional and dumped a lot of cash into a bet.

If I put a billion dollars on the Jacksonville Jaguars to win the Super Bowl, they will be the odds on favorite in Vegas. Its that simple. Its all about money in the pot, that’s it.


45 posted on 10/17/2012 9:21:00 AM PDT by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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To: beebuster2000
Five Thirty-Eight: Intrade numbers follow that guy's model. That guy is also a big-time NYT left-winger who uses biased polls to make Obama look good. Obviously, the editorial board at the NYT will not let him publish any model that shows Obama losing.

But people still think he knows something. He basically correctly predicted Obama would win in 2008, in the easiest Presidential race to handicap since 1984, and somehow people think this makes him a genius.

But his model went UP on the same day that the Gallup poll showed Romney breaking 50% for the first time. A little secret sauce.

46 posted on 10/17/2012 9:25:47 AM PDT by Thane_Banquo (Support hate crime laws: Because some victims are more equal than others.)
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To: beebuster2000
the big fix is in across the board

any consortium that can juice the Fed printing presses, rig an entire stock and energy market, at least try to tap the SPR to keep gas under $4 a gallon for another month, ask the Europeans to postpone a crash until after November, secretly conspire to open our borders by executive order, seize our wealth, cut MEDICARE by $700 BILLOON dollars an blame it on Paul Ryan, promise to pay off defense employers to break laws about layoff notices, and plan to unilaterally nuclear disarm the USA... all to further obamas chances of reelection....can rig an outfit like intrade

remember, for a fraud election to look plausible, it has to look like obama was going to win

47 posted on 10/17/2012 9:27:23 AM PDT by silverleaf (Age Takes a Toll: Please Have Exact Change)
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To: beebuster2000

This is a bookie operation

The stats go where the money it

It is easy to change this and people stupid enough to vote for Obama are also stupid enough to bet money on Intrade.

I think you could make a bundle this time


48 posted on 10/17/2012 9:28:03 AM PDT by Mr. K ("The only thing the World would hate more than the USA in charge is the USA NOT in charge")
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To: Cicero

ya think?


49 posted on 10/17/2012 9:28:22 AM PDT by silverleaf (Age Takes a Toll: Please Have Exact Change)
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To: beebuster2000

Intrade is garbage illegal offshore betting pool used by
Foreigners and crooks .
It is illegal in the US.
It is Not legally bound to any rules and thus a
Shady Scam run out of Ireland to avoid
Any laws !

Do not even bother to look at it !
It means nothing !


50 posted on 10/17/2012 9:29:04 AM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
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