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Skip to comments.Hurricane Sandy Will Not Land in the US (10-23-12)
Posted on 10/28/2012 10:04:32 PM PDT by Fractal Trader
Piers Corbyn's Weather prediction
(Excerpt) Read more at twitpic.com ...
The storm rapidly intensified after entering the Gulf, growing from a Category 3 hurricane to a Category 5 hurricane in just nine hours. This rapid growth was due to the storm's movement over the "unusually warm" waters of the Loop Current, which increased wind speeds. On Saturday, August 27, the storm reached Category 3 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, becoming the third major hurricane of the season. An eyewall replacement cycle disrupted the intensification, but caused the storm to nearly double in size. Katrina again rapidly intensified, attaining Category 5 status on the morning of August 28 and reached its peak strength at 1800 UTC that day, with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 902 mbar (26.6 inHg). The pressure measurement made Katrina the fourth most intense Atlantic hurricane on record at the time, only to be surpassed by Hurricanes Rita and Wilma later in the season; it was also the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico at the time. However, this record was later broken by Hurricane Rita.
Hey, I suggested that the storm could hit off the predicted target and these so called “scientists” like the ones who told us that there will be no radiation leaks after the Tsunami tried to claim that I actually said “Obama created the hurricane story and it really does not exist” even though I spent the last day and a half preparing for the storm.
I think you will more more than satisfied with my credentials. Send me a Freepmail with your email addy. Will LOVE to do it.
And yes....do have a real forecast job. Been everywhere from the jungles of Panama...to Germany...to the desert of the Middle East at a FOB. Forecasted for the first SOF C-130 flights in Iraqi Freedom on A-day...lead forecaster for JTF-Olympics at Hill AFB in '02...currently the SWO for a 3 star. Again....freepmail me.
I haven’t argued with anyone about what is happening, I am trying to tell people to calm down. Apparently some just want to run around in circles cawing about it.
It is a storm that is going to do what storms do.
We’ve been here before. It is not the first storm ever.
Nothing we write on this forum is going to affect it one bit. I just refuse to act like it is the biggest deal the world has ever seen.
N.O. wasn't a bathtub when it was established as a city, if you knew anything about history, you'd at least know that...
True, It all gets boiled into the monetary hit.
Think about it. Nobody on this planet could figure that loss.
Bambi to the rescue.
I will. Quit hyping this storm. 607ACS
All I am doing is trying to get people to be calm and rational. They seem to want to believe this is the biggest deal ever (BFD as Biden would say)... evah!!
Apparently we have never had a natural disaster before.
And HOW exactly is that anything different than I said?
$20 billion in damage will cost $220 billion to repair if the feds are running the show.
As if Rove would ever let the Democrats borrow our hurricane machine!
Actually it was the Governor who made the call - because the MTA system that was systematically shut down over a number of hours extends outside the city limits.......
Dude, I write that child molesters should be shot in the face and some of the same freepers accuse me of being in favor of child molesters. Weird.
So far, you're the only one I've seen on the thread with their hair on fire. Freepers are just sitting here talking as they always do, while you're bouncing around the room yelling about all the people freaking out.
Go post at CNN.com or the Weather Channel if you think they're being hysterical.
In 2009...a storm parked itself over Cobb and Douglas counties(Near Six Flags over Georgia) and dropped 24" of rain in 36 hours.
The Chattahoochie river crested at 30' above flood stage. It was 8' over the I-20 bridge at Six flags....which is usually about 20' over normal river level.
The town I live in, Austell, is the spot where 5 major feeder creeks dump into Sweetwater creek before it dumps into the Chatthoochie. Sweetwater...like the hooch...crested at 30 freakin feet above flood stage.
I not only saw it....I was trapped by the water in my neighborhood. I helped evac folks from cutoff neighborhoods in a jonboat. I got ate up by the clouds of fire ants floating through the water while pulling a jonboat with a rope sloshin through flood water.
750 houses in my county are still empty...waiting to be adjucated before being destroyed. The folks that owned those houses got a fraction of what they were worth from flood insurance....not counting the hundreds that didn't have flood insurance...because it hasn't ever done this before.
Not counting the 6 folks that died...most trying to cross partially flooded bridges in the dark of the first day. My best friend's son found the body of one lady that had been missing a week.
It was a 1,000 year....epic.. biblical flood. It had flooded before..but nothing like that. But it's just rain...right?
My counties have a population of a few hundred thousand. The storm was maybe twenty miles across.
This storm is hitting an area populated with hundreds of millions of people. Right now...hurricane force winds are being recorded 175 miles from the center...that's 350 miles across. Then there's the two feet of snow it's gonna drop in West Virginia.
But it's only rain...right? This storm is gonna kill god knows how many people...gonna destroy billions in property. This storm makes the ones that you and I experienced look miniscule.
The thing is...even if Sandy was a simulated storm in a meterology class and wasn't in the news....THE MEDIA STILL WOULDN'T COVER BENGHAZI and the freakin dereliction of duty and treason that cost the lives of 4 Americans..two of which are my USN brothers. The sad thing is....for every word of reverance and respect paid to those brave men...there's been a hundred by folks just like you discussing the political ramifications of the event...and whose campaign it's gonna hurt worse.
Can you please point to the post # where someone said "YOU" said this? I know someone mentioned that they had seen others say such things on another thread...but where is the post that said YOU did?
has it gone to state now?
I guess the system will run to Albany some day. heh.
“a storm like Camille or Katrina or Andrew is a whole nother matter
“something like that hit Long Island coast and it would be the catostrophe they all imagine but given the latitudes that is just never likely”
“down here we know how to deal with threats...up there folks rely on the govt”.
You can be sure you won’t find people hanging out on the Jersey Shore after tonight. We take, as Gabz says, these Nor’easters hurricaine hybrids seriously.
Went through a cat 1 partying on the beach. wouldn’t walk out onto the pier just to get pulled into the H2O but that pier and the structure we sat on, which was built in the 1920’s with reinforcements, were gone in one hour during the “perfect storm”, which was not as ominous as this one is looking like.
It’s a surprisingly self reliant population.
And when they see this thing coming - and they can see the surf and the weird behavior of animals, the cloud patterns, etc, they don’t depend so much on technology as you might think - they’ve been through these for many generations and have stories and legends- they get out. they don’t fool around and they go to extended family.
They don’t rely on cat 1-2-3- etc predictions. Those are for gulf & southern coast late summer storms. These storms coma=e in late Oct and they take away the beach.
It did. An unnamed storm in 1938. Went over LI and up into Providence RI. Flooded the heck out of that city. Killed a lot of people.
You don’t hear much about big storms like this in those parts partly - partly- because many structures are built to take it and were built long before electricity (we had five fireplaces in our house- spent two weeks after 1979 ice storm in freezing temps without any power). Ran out of firewood. That’ll never happen again. Neighbors get to know each other and depend on each other. Been living in the South for many years, lack of neighborliness frightens me for disasters.
Wouldn’t dream of not having a fireplace.
Really? Where did I "HYPE" it?
This is what I said:
Winds TS...with gusts to hurricane force on the SW side.
Surge to 11-12' max if it comes in on high tide.
Massive power outages due to size of wind field and leaves on the trees making it easier to bring them down.
Will hit with a WNW heading and a pressure around 945-950.
Will cause 15-20 billion in damage.
Now. Tell me where I am wrong. What SPECIFICALLY is wrong with that forecast?
It doesn’t kill people that have knowledge. Start There.
We could join them.
Might be fun.
“Hurricane Sandusky knocking at your door!”
“NE Coast flooding; minorities and children hardest hit”
“NBC: Worst Storm in History to Hit Rockefeller Center”
“Mayor Bloomberg bans salt in V-8”
“Sales of Generators, canned food brisk”
“Edtorial: US Taxpayers Should Pay for UN Repairs After Storm”
“Obama Helps: 50 million Americans now qualify for temporary disability” -”Evil Romney said No”
“Storm Could Create Blackhole than Ends Life As We Know It, Scientists Say”
“Armed Postal Workers, TSA Patrol Streets After Disaster”
Boy...talking about straining on a gnat and swallowing a camel....talk about splitting hairs.
I know all about NOLA. OF course the French Quarter wasn't established in a bathtub. Duh. But a lot of it was later on once the levies were built...and those...combined with other factors have led to a lot of subsidence of the land. But a good portion of the city...especially the part that flooded...was built under sea level. FACT.
In other matters I noticed the stationary front that was stalled over Western Pennsylvania has now moved to the eastern edge of Pa. and high pressure is building in the upper Midwest, is there any chance this might lock this thing up till it either winds down or meanders off to the east?
I never said the storm isn’t happening or that its not going to dump a lot of rain.
It runs outside the city limits - Boominidiot can not shut it down by himself. It includes the LIRR and also goes up to Westchester County.........and it always has
I had no idea the weather office knew the value of business on the coast. It is an extra-trop hurricane and should be expected. If you get damaged by it then you should be insured for it. If you are not insured for it, don't hit me with the bill. Rain can come fast and hard. Stay Home and watch TV Land. Postpone your family outing to the beach.
I know...And that's all anyone has done here is impart knowledge...try to forewarn people...so they can take appropriate measures.
I know better than to drive over a bridge that has less than a foot of water going over it at 20 knots in a 2,200 pound car. A lady that just dropped her kids off at the babysitter...headed to work at 5 am....crossing an old country bridge in the dark...doesn't.
Like Nelson and i have said..even if this storm didn't exist...the media still would refuse to cover Benghazi....which has been in the news since September...when Sandra was still a puff off the African coast.
For every Sandra thread here at FR....there have been a hundred Benghazi threads. No lack of coverage here. If CNN ain't covering it...go bitch at them. I've done my part to educate the hundreds of people in my circle about Benghazi....to the point they are sick of hearing it. Have you done anything...other than dispute actual facts about the storm here on FR...to rectify the situation?
This system is going within 30 miles of where it is currently forecast to go. I've not seen such good model agreement 24 hours out in a while. There is essentially no spread.
What will be of interest tomorrow is wave action interacting with the high tides. Lots of big waves out there. What I will also be watching...since it is such a rare event...is how the surge coming down long island sound interacts with the surge coming N-Ward thru lower bay. that convergence will be interesting to watch.
“A 12’ surge at Kings Pt and 11’ at Battery Park will cause a LOT of damage...much more than 12’ in MS.”
Look at the surge maps more carefully. The probability is very low for >10’ surge anywhere. That number is the worst-case scenario, not the most likely scenario. It is much more likely that the actual surge in most spots affected by surge will be in the 1’ to 3’ range, which is a hassle for physical damage to homes and businesses, but not what one would consider life threatening.
I have a friend in Port Washington right on the bay who will most likely get water in his first floor, which totally sucks. But when Irene went through last year, the prediction then was for 8’ surge and yet he got 0 feet of flooding. The water didn’t even get onto his lawn. So the models can be totally wrong if you are looking at the worst case only, like you are.
More lives will likely be lost in the days after the storm further to the north due to flash flooding.
Cue “The X-Files” Theme, if you are right then you are right...not until then....
Here it is:
“Great New England Hurricane of 1938, nicknamed the Long Island Express. It was a category 3 hurricane that flooded the Big Apple.”
Elders tell stories of things like this. We expect them, and are warned about them - not by Jim Cantore, bless him - by grandparents who went through this stuff and telll us not to rely on technology so much, nature is powerful.
Spoke w a Connecticut-(ian?) today. Loaded, big suburban house, lots of new cars, says, “yes we have a generator. It’s supposed to work. . . we’ll see. Have enough food to feed Texas”
Me: “Do you have firewood?”
She: “Well, yes, but that’ll mean we have no running water and we did that last year for that snowstorm. . . That’s a bad memory”
THey live in this stuff a lot more than folks think.
That is rough. I witnessed levels of water not seen in decades. It never really made news. Lots of destruction downstream.
This storm along the coast should be an advisory at best. People have been so dumbed down that they will cringe at the thought of thunder.
Why should it be pulled if Peter Corbyn got it right oftentimes or all the time?
Oh, by about 12 miles inland from the coast and folks at risk who happen to be living -20' or so below a +12' surge compared with a predicted surge of 11' (at high tide) at Battery Park which sits on the harbor surrounded by higher terrain.
I’m speachless. It’s almost as if you are trying to be obtuse. Do a little reading on the moon and tides.
As I said...I currently work for a 3 star. My job is DSCA. FEMA gives us mission assignments and we do it. Part of the job is doing the EIWG...environmental impacts working group. Part of this group is the USACE. The government has modeling that produces such numbers and the USACE does a lot of work in that area pre-storm to let decision makers at ALL levels (local, state and fed) know what to expect: $ wise and "need" wise so they can pre-position assets if possible...and have others ready to roll afterwards.
When Katrina rolled through...I was the forecaster who modeled the surge for the USACE element at my command. Our G-2 took my surge and wind maps...gave them to USACE...and they plugged them into their formula. The did not count levies breaching in that initial makeup...but initial damage was estimated to be roughly 30 Billion. Then the levies breached and that went up A LOT.
The one thing i can promise ya is.....When the power is out....LOL... it will be blamed on the winds...
Watch the deal...Wont be enough wind to match a winter snowstorm...BUT!..with the power out....NOW WE HAVE A CRISIS
No one on this thread has mentioned the catastrophe coming when all them EBT cards won't work because there is no power, and if 10 days go by and that the case .... there's gonna be a storm surge alright! :>)
Alright! Mayor Bloomberg shut down NYC transit 8 hours ago. What is your economic running total so far? ? ?
I picture my 80+ year old uncle who was a lifeguard at the Jersey shore 60 years ago and has lived there before and since and whose father lived there long before (was the mayor of their town), who knows the birds in the yard and the geese that fly over every day twice a day and who fishes in the ocean, checking his surroundings, the wind, the size and quality of the surf, and he is getting himself and my aunt the heck out of there in the car of the first son to come down and get them.
He might check the forecast from White Plains, but they could check with him. He could tell them there’s something coming this way.
First...as I said in a post...if the timing is off by 6 hours...surge will be 8-9' max. But certainly not 1-3'. The battery ALREADY has 2' of surge....with a max high tide of 7 1/2' a couple of hours ago. This, of course, includes surge+MHHW.
Most likely scenario is this: TIDAL DEPARTURES...BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TONIGHT DURING HIGH TIDE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES...3 TO 4.5 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES MONDAY MORNING...AND POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 11 FT ABOVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE RELEGATED TO NEW YORK HARBOR...WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS...AND PECONIC BAY.
I think we may have been hyped. I went to weather.com and pulled up the five day forecast for DC. NY, Boston, Binghamton,NY and York,Pa.
In none of the forecasts was there any suggestion of flooding or rains over 1 inch, or of winds over 40 miles per hour. One would think if the world were coming to an end due to weather, it would show up somewhere in the local forecast.
Oh crap!! I hadn't thought of that.
This really could be the worst "natural" disaster ever! I hope the Federal government is up to the task of trucking or flying in enough Colt 45, ObamaPhones and condoms to keep the masses from revolting.
//sarcasm (or is it?)
I'm beginning to wonder, like a lot of others, if you even know what you're talking about or just regurgitating the hyperbole the media is putting out.
No doubt this storm is historic for the N.E., and especially for the mariners braving the Atlantic. Let's just keep our senses about us shall we, instead of panicking beyond all reason.
Understand Democrats. NEVER let a crisis go to waste. Spend more of the peoples hard earned dollars. Make them feel guilty for every thing we do here.
Actually, it was Governor Cuomo who did that and it was a gradual shut down an has only been down 90 minutes.
The economic total on that alone is going to be massive.
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