Posted on 10/30/2012 9:38:02 PM PDT by crusader_against_lumpens
Election Night Results: What needs to happen for Romney to win
Once in a while, I like to get my geek hat on. I have modeled the 2012 election using Excel, and have tried out different scenarios to see what would it take, as far as change in votes from 2008, state by state, to let Romney arrive at 270.
Using the percentages for Zero and McCain from 2008, I've introduced "change-over" in votes from Zero to Romney for 2012. For example, a change-over of X% means zero's 2012 percentage would be %2008 minus X and Romney's would be %2008(McC)+X. To keep it simple, I applied the same change-over to both so, if you can imagine, X% change-over would mean X% previous 0bama voters decided to vote for Romney in 2012.
After adjusting EVs in those states affected by 2010 census (notable examples TX +4, NY -2!), I ran various scenarios with the same change-over value applied to all States across the board. I know it's likely to be somewhat different from state to state but bare with me and let's see what the results are. I also assume Romney wins 1 EV from Maine.
A 5% change-over -- i.e. 2008 NH results were 0bama 54.3, McCain 44.8, we get for 2012: 0bama 49.3, Romney 49.8. Add up all the EVs and Romney wins 286 EVs. With 5% changeover, in addition to 2008 McCain states, Romney also wins CO, FL, IN, IA, NH, NC, OH and VA. Add to McCains totals and with census adjusted EVs we get to 286.
A 6% change-over in votes from 2008 and Romney wins 316 EVs. In addition to those States listed above for 5%, Mittens also nets MN, PA. A 7% change-over: Romney 332 - 0bama 206. Add NV and WI to the total from 6% above.
Now for the nerve-wracking scenario. A 4% change-over results in Romney with 267 EV. A 4.5% (just 0.5% difference) tilts Colorado to Mittens and he wins with 276 EV, despite losing IA and NH.
So, there you have it. The Maginot line is at 4.5% change-over (across the board), meaning we need 9 out of 200 among those who voted for hope&change in 2008 to have a change of heart and pull it for Mitt and we have a winner. Either that or a combination of: 1).change-overs, 2).0bama's voters not showing up and 3).despirited in 2008 conservatives (including Ron Paul write-ins) showing up this time to make up a total of 4.5% "change we can believe in!"
I will be keeping an eye on early state results to see what the change-over is from 2008. If Mitt wins NC by 10% (0bama won it by just 0.4% in 2008), I would feel very good about the rest of the evening.
Relax its going to be a landslide.
9 out of 200? I think we can definitely swing that, no pun intended.
I hope you’re right. I remember back in ‘08, some people believed that the reason McCain was going to win was because of the PUMA’s, lol. (disgruntled Hillary Clinton supporters)
I was pissed when obama won back then.
From your keyboard to Gods screen. Hope reigns eternal.
I'm just hoping that its a Romney landslide...my heart, my brain, my soul can not take another day let alone 4 yrs of the dictator....
It all comes down to turnout IMO.
For the RATs to win, they are going to need to be at least +4 and probably +5 or more to do so.
I have no doubt they will get some big numbers. They always do in a Presidential year. The good news is that after a horrible 2008, we will as well this time.
If we keep their advantage under four points, Romney wins. If we roughly equal their turnout or even exceed it, then Gallup and Dick Morris will be proven correct and Romney will win going away.
I sure hope so... but I’m still darned nervous.
Thanks for that link.
Despite what the media says, it probably won’t take long to tell who the winner is.
Look to NH first (should be one of the first to be called). If Romney wins NH, it’s pretty much over. All he would have to do after that is win either OH or PA and it’s over by 10pm.
If Obama wins NH, PA and OH, it will be a longer night.
Romney 275 (Wins WI, IA, CO, VA, NC, FL, NH)
Obama 263 (Wins OH, MI, PA, NV)
and NE will split it’s 5 EV’s 3 Romney, 2 Obama.
Make a note of it and congratulate me on election night.
You do sound very confident.
I’ve already organized my election night celebration party. Costco pizza and two buck chuck.
Ping
Geeze, well hopefully if the President changes you can upgrade to some better wine. :P
Note that I even gave OHio to the socialist from Chicago.
Point is, OH is not critical this time. The Rats have spent lot of $$ in OH but that leaves their flank open.
What will it take? Us...all of us.
On November 6th, 2012, We the people are going to STAND OBAMA DOWN!
http://www.jeffhead.com/standobamadown.htm
Welcome newbie. I see you joined a few weeks ago. Stirring the pot?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.