Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Rasmussen 11/2 - R48.4, O47.6
Drudge Report/Rasmussen ^ | 11/2/2012 | www.rasmussenreports.com

Posted on 11/02/2012 6:35:25 AM PDT by mrs9x

click here to read article


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-5051-88 last
To: mrs9x

I have seen this coming. There can be no doubt Obambi got a small hurricane bounce.

The only question is whether it will linger until election day or will dissipate again.

History suggests the challenger does better in the final days before the election. If that holds true, then Romney is still in strong position.

If not, well . . . I don’t want to go there just yet.


51 posted on 11/02/2012 7:05:13 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: GoCards

“Not good and getting tired of the We win crowd already!!!”

So, what do you want? An endless stream of “We’re gonna lose”?????


52 posted on 11/02/2012 7:07:30 AM PDT by gbscott1954 (Please come back Sarah!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: ilgipper

There’s another dynamic not reflected. People are fed up. Every day it is a solid barrage of surveys and political robo calls. We have told family and friends we are not answering the phone and how they can reach us around the recorder.

Second, about 1/5 of people have already voted so they are not answering surveys.

I believe all the survey/polls are all flawed.


53 posted on 11/02/2012 7:07:59 AM PDT by Proud2BeRight
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 44 | View Replies]

To: txrangerette; Buckeye McFrog

The discussion of the 47% was dead on, and so is Buckeye McFrog. It was politically damaging but the comment was made to address an attendees question about winning over voters. Romney correctly said there is a baked in percentage of people who like the free stuff, so his message of cutting free stuff is going not going to work with them. Where he mangled the statement politically and in reality is that is it not a straight up correlation. EVERY person with government benefits is not someone who want to be. Every person with above average income is not necessarily against it.

In 2008 surveys (Rasumussen, I believe), when broke down by recipients vs productive people, it was a mirror image. I forget the exact percentage, but of the people that pay taxes, it was either 80/20 or 70/30 support for Republicans, and in the ‘taker’ class, it was the exact opposite. Almost to the percentage.

Romney and Ryan backed off it politically because it was damaging in September. Romney was incorrect to state 100% correlation in his statement, but he was correct in princple.


54 posted on 11/02/2012 7:08:12 AM PDT by ilgipper (Obama supporters are comprised of the uninformed & the ill-informed)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 41 | View Replies]

To: mrs9x

And what’s a safe % that will cover the dems voter fraud?


55 posted on 11/02/2012 7:08:17 AM PDT by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mrs9x

Romney is no Reagan


56 posted on 11/02/2012 7:11:30 AM PDT by chopperjc
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 48 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut; SoftwareEngineer

I hope you are feeling better. I read that Ras was a day behind, is this true?


57 posted on 11/02/2012 7:11:45 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 47 | View Replies]

To: dalebert

“This man has been such a bad president ..how is this race even close?”

Look at it this way. Despite the best efforts of the liberal ‘Political-Entertainment-Media-Academic’ complex, we are still winning. Don’t fret. Also, can you remember any major political race in which the final numbers for the Republican weren’t more than what the polls had predicted?


58 posted on 11/02/2012 7:13:06 AM PDT by pieceofthepuzzle
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Did RAS up it +5 D?


59 posted on 11/02/2012 7:13:10 AM PDT by scbison
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: chopperjc

This actually might be good that things are tightening just before the election - it will not allow people to get complacent and motivate Republicans even more to get out and vote.


60 posted on 11/02/2012 7:14:39 AM PDT by mrs9x
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 56 | View Replies]

To: PMAS

If the mainstream media were covering Sandy, in the same way they covered Katrina, Romney would be surging in New York, NJ, and CT.


61 posted on 11/02/2012 7:20:37 AM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]

To: pieceofthepuzzle
Look at it this way. Despite the best efforts of the liberal ‘Political-Entertainment-Media-Academic’ complex, we are still winning.

Agreed. Just think 4 years ago we'd have died to be in a dead heat with 3 days to go. Instead we were down anywhere from 6-11 points nationally.

While I was hoping for a cascade preference (and it was possible right up until Chris Christie's perplexing actions), I have always maintained that if we have a tie going into election day, we will win based on turnout and motivation. Our country is on the line. Obamacare (forever) is on the line. It is so important.
62 posted on 11/02/2012 7:23:49 AM PDT by nhwingut (If you are concerned, you are not paying attention (or you are a troll). It will be a landslide.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 58 | View Replies]

To: dalebert

2 words:

Leftist media.


63 posted on 11/02/2012 7:26:12 AM PDT by vonkayel
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: chopperjc

obama is no carter... he is much worse.

LLS


64 posted on 11/02/2012 7:28:29 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 56 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Thanks... Feeling better. Although a little queasy with horse race now. :)

I have not heard about Ras being one day behind. I know his system has been off a bit due to storm (editorial/publishing times, etc).

I am anxiously awaiting Gallup. Fingers crossed!


65 posted on 11/02/2012 7:30:02 AM PDT by nhwingut (If you are concerned, you are not paying attention (or you are a troll). It will be a landslide.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 57 | View Replies]

To: mrs9x

This is something of a myth: Reagan was down in one poll’s sampling by a large margin, while other polls at the time clearly showed what was going to happen that night.


66 posted on 11/02/2012 7:31:05 AM PDT by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 48 | View Replies]

To: mrs9x
You know, some of you people are absolutely pathetic. “Oh no...Obama has closed the gap...we’re in trouble...our country is finished...yada, yada, yada”

The Leftists must laugh their collective A$$es of at some of you folks. Do yourself a favor and look at anymore polls until after the election. I don’t think your fragile self esteem can handle it! Oh, and while you’re at it, why don’t you grow a set of balls. They come in handy when one wants to act like a real man.

Freaking sad!

67 posted on 11/02/2012 7:35:35 AM PDT by Artcore
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Private_Sector_Does_It_Better

You nailed it. The polls are all over the place because nobody knows which turnout model to use.

If you assume that Obama will have the same turnout that he had in 2008, then he’s ahead (CBS, Reuters, NY Times, etc.. assume that). If you assume that we are back to the historical turnout model for presidential elections, then Obama is behind by 4-5 points.

And if we assume the the turnout model will be the same as in 2010 then we’ll have a Romney landslide.


68 posted on 11/02/2012 7:37:19 AM PDT by BarnacleCenturion
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 40 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg
Romney gets republicans 88-9, democrats 11-86, and independents 47-44.

According to these numbers, and by my calculations, Romney gets 51.2% of the vote.

69 posted on 11/02/2012 7:37:51 AM PDT by Conservative_Jedi (Give me Liberty or give me Death!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Utmost Certainty

Reagan only got 50.7% of the vote in 1980.

Romney will do better than that, just wait.


70 posted on 11/02/2012 7:41:00 AM PDT by BarnacleCenturion
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 66 | View Replies]

To: mrs9x

Ok this really sucks. So now Obama wins reelection because of a storm that hits the east coast. Great.


71 posted on 11/02/2012 7:42:32 AM PDT by erod (I'm a Chicagoan till Chicago ends...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Artcore

It is sad... and it shows how easily Americans are manipulated. When one goes into a fight... any kind of fight... if one goes into that fight thinking that they will lose... they will lose. If they are confident that they can or will win... their odds increase in a huge way. I would rather go into battle with my mind right and committed to the win. I will do just that... and I feel compassion for those so beaten down that they can be demoralized so easily. Mitt will either win or lose... and worry according to JESUS will not add one second to your life... so go forth with confidence and determination.

LLS


72 posted on 11/02/2012 7:48:24 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 67 | View Replies]

To: mrs9x

Hi... Where did you come up with those numbers (to the decimal point)? Just curious, because my math is not able to replicate.


73 posted on 11/02/2012 7:52:28 AM PDT by nhwingut (Get out & Vote as if your life was on the line. Because it is.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: BarnacleCenturion
And if we assume the the turnout model will be the same as in 2010 then we’ll have a Romney landslide.

My gut tells me that turnout will be greater on our side than it was in 2010. People have told me that you cannot apply midterm dynamics pertaining to turnout to a presidential race. That can work both ways, however.....

74 posted on 11/02/2012 7:58:12 AM PDT by wolf24
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 68 | View Replies]

To: Conservative_Jedi

>>>Romney gets republicans 88-9, democrats 11-86, and independents 47-44.<<<


>>>According to these numbers, and by my calculations, Romney gets 51.2% of the vote.<<<

Using what D/R/I?


75 posted on 11/02/2012 8:01:57 AM PDT by Principled (This is anot a leader who gets things done. This is a leader who explains why he didn't)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 69 | View Replies]

To: PermaRag
Not only that, all we've heard here for the last month is "the pollsters have reputations to protect.......when it gets to the last week, they'll take their thumb off the scales"

Can't have it both ways. Either this poll is sound, or Rasmussen doesn't give a s--t about his reputation for accuracy. Which is it I wonder.....

76 posted on 11/02/2012 8:03:42 AM PDT by Eric Pode of Croydon
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 49 | View Replies]

To: Principled
>>>Romney gets republicans 88-9, democrats 11-86, and independents 47-44.<<<

>>>According to these numbers, and by my calculations, Romney gets 51.2% of the vote.<<<

Using what D/R/I?

Using total votes for Romney (88+11+47) / total votes (88+9+11+86+47+44). That equals 146/285.

77 posted on 11/02/2012 8:11:13 AM PDT by Conservative_Jedi (Give me Liberty or give me Death!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 75 | View Replies]

To: chopperjc

“Romney is no Reagan”

Yep. And that is part of the reason Romney probably going to lose. People can sniff out a phoney. In 80, many people did not like Reagan or parts of his philosophy, but they knew where he stood and respected that.

If the 0bama campaign had stayed on the ‘flip with Mitt’ approach and Barry had not choomed before the first debate, I doubt the race would be this close.

Before anyone calls me a dem troll, please review all of the anti-Romney posts that were here during the primaries. If we are honest, I doubt Romney would be in the top 10 people we would really want to see as president.


78 posted on 11/02/2012 8:12:07 AM PDT by Lou Budvis (I'm voting AB0/RYAN)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 56 | View Replies]

To: Eric Pode of Croydon

Who said this poll isn’t legit? It’s clear that Romney has lost momentum from the storm.

And this storm may go down as the most important storm in the history of our nation in how it impacted the state of our country forever - for generations not even born.

With that said, the poll is a snap shot in time (i.e. Obozo walking around with his bomber jacket that’s two sizes too big for his feminine shoulders).

I think by Monday, the race gets back to a Romney lead (2-3), as the unemployment number settles in ($6 trillion and 4 years later, the UE is worse). Furthermore, Libya is dipping out, and the NY/NJ corridor is starting to get livid with the Feds.


79 posted on 11/02/2012 8:16:00 AM PDT by nhwingut (Get out & Vote as if your life was on the line. Because it is.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 76 | View Replies]

To: Conservative_Jedi

oh I see - the numbers that were added [88, 11, and 47] were percentages though. Looking at it like that, there would be 15 votes missing [3 from his R, 3 from his D, and 9 from his I.]

So assuming the missing 15 are split evenly, RR would still get more 153.5 to 146.5.

But I don’t think the D/R/I is even so I think the original percentages can be used to make more precise a prediction.

Using 35/36/29 the numbers give 52-48. I’d take that.


80 posted on 11/02/2012 9:12:42 AM PDT by Principled (This is anot a leader who gets things done. This is a leader who explains why he didn't)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 77 | View Replies]

To: CatOwner
To: CatOwner

I don’t know what to say to people like you. You turn your back on historical turnout, you turn your back on the truth. Are you saying Kerry didn’t make Ohio “ground-zero”? Are you saying Romney isn’t making Ohio “ground-zero”? **shakes head**

8 posted on 10/27/2012 10:24:06 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA, NH = 285EV)

81 posted on 11/02/2012 9:13:23 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA, NH = 285EV)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: ScottinVA
"Well, so much for the theory the “undecideds break for the challenger.” C’mon America... really??????"

Do you seriously believe the Undecideds grew back to 4%? I said it a couple of weeks ago when Scott moved his projection estimate that he would end up putting too much slack in his model. And it's come home to haunt him.

82 posted on 11/02/2012 9:19:53 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA, NH = 285EV)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: mrs9x

I think we need a few more Republican pollsters to VERIFY the national numbers.

I can’t trust RAS anymore, this guy is setting this up to support the media meme of the moment.

Split decision - Obama wins electoral college - Romney wins popular vote is what I hear from the big media.


83 posted on 11/02/2012 9:20:11 AM PDT by o2bfree (All us minorities got us an Obamaphone!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: StAnDeliver
"Are you saying Kerry didn’t make Ohio “ground-zero”? Are you saying Romney isn’t making Ohio “ground-zero”? **shakes head**"

I am not sure what point you are trying to make. Kerry made Ohio "ground zero" and lost the election. Are you saying that's what is going to happen with Romney?

84 posted on 11/02/2012 9:28:11 AM PDT by CatOwner
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 81 | View Replies]

To: mrs9x

IOW: We’ll see Tuesday.


85 posted on 11/02/2012 9:37:24 AM PDT by Mike Darancette (Obama didn't fix it!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Mike Darancette

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit drinking.


86 posted on 11/02/2012 9:39:14 AM PDT by dfwgator
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 85 | View Replies]

To: dfwgator; LS; SoftwareEngineer; tatown

Newest PPP national has Obama up 1, 49-48. Sample moved up to D+6 (was D+4). Romney up w/ indies AND crossover voters.


87 posted on 11/02/2012 10:50:02 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 86 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg; nhwingut

PPP is actually 48/48. Any idea how much Romney is winning Indy’s by? If it is really a D+6 it has to be double digits among Indy’s.


88 posted on 11/02/2012 10:58:25 AM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 87 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-5051-88 last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson