Skip to comments.ELECTION PREDICTIONS for retread troll ZOT Thread
Posted on 11/02/2012 3:50:04 PM PDT by stroll
Starting with the best available source of trend data and adding a bit of thought and analysis, I come up with the following conclusions.
First, the reasoning:
The Northeast: The Northeast is a solid Democratic Party stronghold, and with the growth of the Northern Virginia suburbs has expanded to include that state in its political orbit.
The South: The South remains mostly Republican. However, Hurricane Sandy exerts a strong political impact here, giving President Obama an opportunity to display his leadership chops while reminding people of Dubya's inept handling of Katrina. This effect isn't great enough to tip the Gulf States, but does point toward a repeat Democratic victory in Florida and (possibly) North Carolina.
The Midwest: Mitt Romney's "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" editorial hurt him badly in the Rust Belt; his ill-considered attempt to weasel his way out of the situation with a fact-check-fail ad compounded the damage. Indiana is an idiosyncratic Red patch in this Blue field, though Mourdoch's shot from the lip just might inflict spillover damage on the rest of the GOP ticket.
The Plains: The Plains states are a solid GOP stronghold. One possible wild card is Missouri, where Akin may have damaged the party brand as well sinking his own candidacy. Nebraska's split electoral system allows Omaha to tilt its district Blue, as in 2008.
The Mountain West: A GOP stronghold, as usual. (Alaska included in this group). The wild card is whether Colorado aligns with this group or with the Southwest (see below).
The Southwest: The growing Hispanic vote, combined with GOP hostilty on the immigration issue, is tilting the Southwest bluer. Arizona is probably still red, but without a native-son advantage such as the party had in 2008 this is less certain.
The Pacific Coast: A Democratic Party stronghold, as usual. (Hawaii included in this group)
The results of this calculation come out as follows:
GOP Best-Case Scenario
GOP Worst-Case Scenario
You’re gone, ratpuke.
The (s)trolls are out in force tonight.
Not what you’re smoking.
Stroll or TROLL?
I'm not familiar with that acronym.
Do the stroll
So you see the BEST-case GOP scenario as being 215 EV for Romney. Well, I really hope you’re very, very wrong. Pretty pessimistic analysis, I must say.
I'm sure the Dummy Underground and DailyKossakKids would be thrilled with your "prognostications," so why not mosey on over there and post this crap?
I see a troll. In since 24 October? Smells like ozone. Viking kitties, anyone?
a newbie troll has joined.
My crystal ball says you’re an idiot.
Are you willing to put money on this?
Mark, I bet he’d welch on the bet.
Well, what's you prediction, then?
It means bye-bye a-hole.
My prediction: 331 - 207 good guys.
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