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ELECTION PREDICTIONS for retread troll ZOT Thread
Troll Analysis | 11-2-12

Posted on 11/02/2012 3:50:04 PM PDT by stroll

Starting with the best available source of trend data and adding a bit of thought and analysis, I come up with the following conclusions.

First, the reasoning:

The Northeast: The Northeast is a solid Democratic Party stronghold, and with the growth of the Northern Virginia suburbs has expanded to include that state in its political orbit.

The South: The South remains mostly Republican. However, Hurricane Sandy exerts a strong political impact here, giving President Obama an opportunity to display his leadership chops while reminding people of Dubya's inept handling of Katrina. This effect isn't great enough to tip the Gulf States, but does point toward a repeat Democratic victory in Florida and (possibly) North Carolina.

The Midwest: Mitt Romney's "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" editorial hurt him badly in the Rust Belt; his ill-considered attempt to weasel his way out of the situation with a fact-check-fail ad compounded the damage. Indiana is an idiosyncratic Red patch in this Blue field, though Mourdoch's shot from the lip just might inflict spillover damage on the rest of the GOP ticket.

The Plains: The Plains states are a solid GOP stronghold. One possible wild card is Missouri, where Akin may have damaged the party brand as well sinking his own candidacy. Nebraska's split electoral system allows Omaha to tilt its district Blue, as in 2008.

The Mountain West: A GOP stronghold, as usual. (Alaska included in this group). The wild card is whether Colorado aligns with this group or with the Southwest (see below).

The Southwest: The growing Hispanic vote, combined with GOP hostilty on the immigration issue, is tilting the Southwest bluer. Arizona is probably still red, but without a native-son advantage such as the party had in 2008 this is less certain.

The Pacific Coast: A Democratic Party stronghold, as usual. (Hawaii included in this group)

The results of this calculation come out as follows:

GOP Best-Case Scenario

GOP Worst-Case Scenario



TOPICS: Cheese, Moose, Sister; Weird Stuff
KEYWORDS: retread; troll; trolltimer; zot
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What do you see in your crystal ball?
1 posted on 11/02/2012 3:50:07 PM PDT by stroll
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To: stroll

You’re gone, ratpuke.


2 posted on 11/02/2012 3:52:55 PM PDT by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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To: stroll

The (s)trolls are out in force tonight.


3 posted on 11/02/2012 3:53:24 PM PDT by wireman
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To: stroll

IBTZ troll!


4 posted on 11/02/2012 3:53:46 PM PDT by Frapster (There you go again....)
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To: stroll

Not what you’re smoking.


5 posted on 11/02/2012 3:53:52 PM PDT by navymom1
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To: stroll

Stroll or TROLL?


6 posted on 11/02/2012 3:54:15 PM PDT by mvonfr
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To: Frapster
IBTZ

I'm not familiar with that acronym.

7 posted on 11/02/2012 3:54:44 PM PDT by stroll
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To: stroll

Do the stroll


8 posted on 11/02/2012 3:54:48 PM PDT by ecomcon
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To: stroll

So you see the BEST-case GOP scenario as being 215 EV for Romney. Well, I really hope you’re very, very wrong. Pretty pessimistic analysis, I must say.


9 posted on 11/02/2012 3:55:03 PM PDT by JustaCowgirl (Storm the heavens with your prayers for Mitt Romney tonight.)
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To: stroll
Sorry, I don't have a "crystal ball" and I seriously suggest you lay off the Kool Aid or put down the pipe as everything I've heard and read dispute your so called "best-worst-case scenario."

I'm sure the Dummy Underground and DailyKossakKids would be thrilled with your "prognostications," so why not mosey on over there and post this crap?

10 posted on 11/02/2012 3:55:18 PM PDT by neveralib
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To: stroll

I see a troll. In since 24 October? Smells like ozone. Viking kitties, anyone?


11 posted on 11/02/2012 3:55:28 PM PDT by 17th Miss Regt
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To: stroll

a newbie troll has joined.


12 posted on 11/02/2012 3:55:39 PM PDT by freekitty (Give me back my conservative vote; then find me a real conservative to vote for)
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To: stroll

My crystal ball says you’re an idiot.


13 posted on 11/02/2012 3:55:50 PM PDT by beandog (All Aboard the Choo Choo Train to Crazy Town)
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To: stroll

IBZT


14 posted on 11/02/2012 3:56:09 PM PDT by MNDude (OWS Movement RIP)
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To: stroll

Are you willing to put money on this?


15 posted on 11/02/2012 3:56:26 PM PDT by Mark (Don't argue with my posts. I typed while under sniper fire.)
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To: Mark

Mark, I bet he’d welch on the bet.


16 posted on 11/02/2012 3:57:52 PM PDT by navymom1
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To: beandog
My crystal ball says you’re an idiot.

Well, what's you prediction, then?

17 posted on 11/02/2012 3:58:09 PM PDT by stroll
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To: stroll
I'm not familiar with that acronym.

It means bye-bye a-hole.

18 posted on 11/02/2012 3:58:31 PM PDT by wireman
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To: stroll
Why is Chris Mathew's prediction labeled a “FReeper Analysis”?
19 posted on 11/02/2012 3:58:41 PM PDT by HapaxLegamenon
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To: stroll
So, how do you like it here on Free Republic after your first week?

My prediction: 331 - 207 good guys.

20 posted on 11/02/2012 3:59:20 PM PDT by RPTMS
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To: stroll

IBTZ
I’m not familiar with that acronym.

Of course you’re not.
You’re not from around here are you?


21 posted on 11/02/2012 3:59:20 PM PDT by tet68 ( " We would not die in that man's company, that fears his fellowship to die with us...." Henry V.)
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To: stroll
My crystal ball says your boss will be shaving off his mustache next Wednesday.
22 posted on 11/02/2012 3:59:25 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: stroll

Rot in hades liberal troll.


23 posted on 11/02/2012 4:00:06 PM PDT by ohioman
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To: stroll

Stroll, Oct 24, 2012. Welcome aboard new guy. Troll.


24 posted on 11/02/2012 4:00:27 PM PDT by Pit1 (I'm so sick of O-nut-Head. All demoRats can go to hel. Now.)
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To: stroll

If I were Jim Robinson... I WOULD FLUSH YOU LIKE A TURD... YOU TURD TROLL!

LLS


25 posted on 11/02/2012 4:01:02 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
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To: stroll

WORST CASE GOP SCENARIO:

Keep the House comfortably

Pick up one Senate seat

Obama gets 272 electoral votes, while losing the popular vote (R 50, O 48)

BEST GOP CASE:

No real losses in the House

Pick up four Senate seats

Romney wins more than 325 electoral votes, wins popular vote 53-47


26 posted on 11/02/2012 4:01:08 PM PDT by IslandLad
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To: stroll

You seem to have a crystal ball to look at the future. Do you have one showing or telling of unique methods that are being used in the “GOTV” efforts? If so could you share some of them with us?


27 posted on 11/02/2012 4:02:37 PM PDT by deport
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To: stroll
Goodbye moron.

Photobucket

28 posted on 11/02/2012 4:02:37 PM PDT by IYellAtMyTV (Je t'aime, faire du bruit comme le cochon.)
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To: stroll

I think I’ll go with Newt Gingrich and Michael Barone, both who believe Romney will win.

I can’t imagine why you’d be posting something like this unless you are trolling. You just decided to pull something out of your behind and post it. Maybe you’re just bored tonight and want to stir up trouble.


29 posted on 11/02/2012 4:03:28 PM PDT by beandog (All Aboard the Choo Choo Train to Crazy Town)
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To: stroll

Chris Matthews, is that you? Bye stroll the troll. You will be crying like a little wuss on election day.


30 posted on 11/02/2012 4:03:28 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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To: stroll
"The South: The South remains mostly Republican. However, Hurricane Sandy exerts a strong political impact here, giving President Obama an opportunity to display his leadership chops while reminding people of Dubya's inept handling of Katrina. This effect isn't great enough to tip the Gulf States, but does point toward a repeat Democratic victory in Florida and (possibly) North Carolina."

There is not ONE state of the former Confederacy or whom sent troops to fight in the Confederate States Army (save for Maryland) that will go for Mr. Obama this cycle. Take that to the bank.

31 posted on 11/02/2012 4:04:44 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: stroll

Now look Chris, I mean “Stroll,” I’m gonna get a thrill up my leg on election night when they carry you off in a straitjacket.


32 posted on 11/02/2012 4:05:19 PM PDT by Freestate316 (Know what you believe and why you believe it.)
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To: stroll

Obama could win, but unless there is massive voter fraud, the margin should be a lot closer.


33 posted on 11/02/2012 4:05:36 PM PDT by fatnotlazy
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To: stroll

Nate Silver? Is that you?


34 posted on 11/02/2012 4:07:37 PM PDT by JPG (Make it happen)
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To: stroll

crystal ball? Don’t need a crystal ball to see that you are an idiot in need of professional help

A huge load of crap was spewed via this statement

“The South remains mostly Republican. However, Hurricane Sandy exerts a strong political impact here, giving President Obama an opportunity to display his leadership chops while reminding people of Dubya’s inept handling of Katrina. This effect isn’t great enough to tip the Gulf States, but does point toward a repeat Democratic victory in Florida and (possibly) North Carolina. “


35 posted on 11/02/2012 4:08:39 PM PDT by plain talk
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To: darkwing104; TheOldLady; 50mm
Stroll the Troll gets the Zot!
36 posted on 11/02/2012 4:10:52 PM PDT by Las Vegas Ron (Medicine is the keystone in the arch of socialism)
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To: stroll
Stroll, Obama is going to lose Illinois. You see we here in Illinois may be dumb, but we ain't stupid. There is an old saying here in Chicago, "Burn me once, shame on you. Burn me twice, shame on me."
37 posted on 11/02/2012 4:11:03 PM PDT by Chgogal (Obama helped murder US Navy SEALs.)
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To: stroll
Since you have not crystal balls, nor any sort of balls for that matter....

GOP worst case

GOP best case


38 posted on 11/02/2012 4:11:33 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: stroll

I predict that by 12 AM ET liberals all across this country will have to make the decision to either commit suicide or do the unthinkable: take a shower and get a damn job.


39 posted on 11/02/2012 4:12:39 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo (Support hate crime laws: Because some victims are more equal than others.)
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To: IYellAtMyTV

Oh goodie we get to Zot a troll.

I see Obama golfing in Hawaii for the next four years. buh bye


40 posted on 11/02/2012 4:12:43 PM PDT by Gasshog
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To: stroll
"What do you see in your crystal ball?'

this for you:

Photobucket

41 posted on 11/02/2012 4:15:07 PM PDT by dynachrome ("Our forefathers didn't bury their guns. They buried those that tried to take them.")
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To: stroll

Darn; missed all the fun.


42 posted on 11/02/2012 4:16:31 PM PDT by carriage_hill ("0bummer's a towering figure" - even a Garden Gnome casts a long shadow at sunset.)
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To: stroll

Michigan is going red, so is PA. Ohio cannot tell its butt from its navel, so they will probably go Obama.


43 posted on 11/02/2012 4:16:40 PM PDT by madison10 (I love it when a plan comes together ~~God)
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

I say, leave the thread up.


44 posted on 11/02/2012 4:17:14 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: dynachrome

cute! I thought there would be a lot more kitty pics.


45 posted on 11/02/2012 4:18:13 PM PDT by libbylu
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To: stroll

Nate is that you?


46 posted on 11/02/2012 4:18:28 PM PDT by barmag25
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To: All

That’s some truly hard-hitting analysis—”pretty much the entire country is strong Democrat or has the potential to be swayed by Obama appearing to be a president for an hour after a hurricane.”

Good stuff, I’m sure your MSNBC paycheck is in the mail.


47 posted on 11/02/2012 4:18:40 PM PDT by Future Snake Eater (CrossFit.com)
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To: stroll

I see a ZOT. Never been IBZT.


48 posted on 11/02/2012 4:20:07 PM PDT by machogirl (First they came for my tagline)
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To: Thane_Banquo
By 1am, they'll be 'opening veins', en masse. LOL.
49 posted on 11/02/2012 4:20:44 PM PDT by carriage_hill ("0bummer's a towering figure" - even a Garden Gnome casts a long shadow at sunset.)
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To: Mears

bfl


50 posted on 11/02/2012 4:23:12 PM PDT by Mears
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