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PREDICTIONS THREAD! Lock in your predictions for tomorrow! [Vanity]

Posted on 11/05/2012 5:45:49 AM PST by kevkrom

Okay... election day is tomorrow, and it's time for all us to make final predictions on the record... you know, for bragging rights.

This is specifically for the Presidential race, but if you want to lock in overall and/or specific Senate and House races for "bonus points", by all means go ahead!


TOPICS: Chit/Chat
KEYWORDS: obama; predictions; romney
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To: Eye of Unk

Great idea.
I predict a Romney win.All along I was sure BO would take it till the first debate was on.He doesn’t want to win and just going through the motions.


101 posted on 11/05/2012 6:51:53 AM PST by fatima (Free Hugs Today :))
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To: kevkrom

I am going to say about 280 (Colorado will decide that Romney is our next President) and he wins popular vote 49-47 percent.


102 posted on 11/05/2012 6:56:28 AM PST by napscoordinator (GOP Candidate 2020 - "Bloomberg 2020 - We vote for whatever crap the GOP puts in front of us.")
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To: kevkrom
My belief, based on polls + anecdotal evidence:

Romney is surging now in the last 2-3 days before the election.

This surge will not be reflected in most polls because they were done too early to pick it up. Those polls had a short shelf life ... they're already past their stale date.

It's true that Romney lost a couple of points last week due to two things:
- Hurricane Sandy swamping out political the news, and the positive-looking photo op for Obama
- Obama got his "incumbent's last week bump." This came from about 1/3 of the "undecideds" finally telling pollsters they had chosen Obama. The other 2/3 of the undecideds will go for Romney; but those votes won't show up until election day.

Additionally, as we all know, there are intangible factors in Romney's favor that are hard to quantify in polls (e.g. intensity, increased participation by Evangelicals and pockets of Reagan Democrats).

So my prediction for the popular vote: Romney 51.7, Obama 47.

103 posted on 11/05/2012 6:57:38 AM PST by shhrubbery! (NIH!)
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To: Dead Corpse
FR crashes by lunch time.

Cold stone solid prediction. :)

I would add a brief note from deep Red Ohio. I live in Putnam County, which typically votes about 70% Republican - a very conservative area. My office manager decided to vote early, and when she arrived at the Board of Elections this morning, there were people lined up to vote. That has never happened here before. The data says things are close, but my gut tells me Romney is in for a very big night.

104 posted on 11/05/2012 6:58:02 AM PST by TonyInOhio (Remember: THE EXIT POLLS ARE WRONG!)
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To: kevkrom
Here's my prediction:

All Your Base

105 posted on 11/05/2012 6:59:11 AM PST by Bush_Democrat ((xDem now) - Breitbart sent me)
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To: kevkrom

I’m predicting - ROMNEY - 310
OBAMA - 228

Romney takes all the swing states except Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, and Nevada. We pick up one stray electoral vote in Maine. Romney wins the popular vote 51.5%

Romney’s coattails carry McMahon over the line in Connecticut. It has a similar effect for Akin in Missouri, Mourdock in Indiana, and Allen in Virginia.Brown wins in Mass by a hair. Rehburg has a good chance of defeating Tester in Montana, Thompson wins in Wisconsin, we take the senate.

Lose two in the House, but West and Bachmann keep their seats.

I am also predicting mass suicide at MSNBC, and a slight chance of Paul Krugman shitting his pants. We never hear Nate Silver’s name again.


106 posted on 11/05/2012 6:59:34 AM PST by Viennacon
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To: kevkrom

OK...here’s my try at it.

Romney/Ryan wins, 52-46 in the popular vote, and with somewhere north of 300 electoral votes.

The Alphabets are forced to call it by midnight Eastern, although they’ll be VERY reluctant to do so.

For bonus points: Gain 6 seats in the House, 4 in the Senate.

In my own state of Washington: Sadly, Cantwell retains her Senate seat, Sec. of State McKenna turns the governor’s seat red, and in the major referendums & initiatives:

I-1185 (2/3 legislative vote or voter approval for tax/rate hikes)-PASS
I-502 (Legalization of marijuana)-FAIL
I-1240 (Charter Public Schools)-PASS
Ref 74 (Same-sex Marriage)-PASS (Not that I want it to, but based on everything I see and hear, barring a Red Sea-class miracle of Almighty God, this is going to pass. I voted NO.)


107 posted on 11/05/2012 7:01:04 AM PST by hoagy62 ("Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered..."-Thomas Paine. 1776)
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To: kevkrom

Popular Vote 52-47 Romney, 295 Electoral Votes, 51 Republicans in the Senate and a pick up of 8 House seats.


108 posted on 11/05/2012 7:01:09 AM PST by CPT Clay (Follow me on Twitter @Clay N TX)
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To: kevkrom

54%-45% PV (54.3-44.9 to be more specific)
396-142 EV
41 States for Mitt.

+10 House
+5 Senate


109 posted on 11/05/2012 7:04:27 AM PST by princeofdarkness ( Nobama. No more. No way. November 2012.)
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To: Lazamataz
Correcto! Barone is never overly partisan or prone to exaggeration and is probably the most thoroughly researching person in his business today. If he tells you a hen dips snuff, you don't have to look under her wing for the bottle.
110 posted on 11/05/2012 7:09:34 AM PST by X-spurt (It is truly time for ON YOUR FEET or on your knees)
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To: sharkshooting
I have it almost exactly the same 296-242 with Romney picking up one in Maine. I say the popular vote will be 51-47.

It would really be nice to see MN or MI go Rep so Axelrod can shave his moustache.

111 posted on 11/05/2012 7:14:32 AM PST by kabar
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To: kevkrom

54%-45% PV (54.3-44.9 to be more specific)
396-142 EV
41 States for Mitt.

+10 House
+5 Senate


112 posted on 11/05/2012 7:15:28 AM PST by princeofdarkness ( Nobama. No more. No way. November 2012.)
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To: kevkrom

The world will end soon!


113 posted on 11/05/2012 7:18:12 AM PST by US_MilitaryRules (Unnngh! To many PDS people!)
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To: kevkrom

Romney win: 328/210 EV.


114 posted on 11/05/2012 7:21:55 AM PST by Gorilla44
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To: kevkrom
I've been predicting a Romney/Ryan margin of 10% since my August 15th blog, the day after Artur Davis endorsed Romney.

Since that time I have occasionally wavered to as low as 5%, but I will stick with my first specific results prediction made after the 1 st debate of RR-54%, OB-46%.

I affirmed that prediction in my November 3rd blog post:

Romney Landslide: You Read It Here First

Since that post, I have found several who were as bullish as I and said so even earlier than I.

Yeah, it's hubris, but I still have that gut feeling. The only hangup has been this Sandy business, but I am not convinced that it will influence voters significantly.
115 posted on 11/05/2012 7:23:20 AM PST by Sudetenland (Member of the BBB Club - Bye-Bye-Barry!!! President Barack "Down Low" Obama)
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To: kevkrom

Obama will be declared winner by networks (exceptions being Fox and Beck).

In the weeks to follow, massive vote fraud will be exposed.

Winner should be Romney. The big question will be, will Romney cede too soon to Obama?


116 posted on 11/05/2012 7:24:03 AM PST by The Bard (http://www.myfbc.com)
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To: kevkrom

I’m prepared to be tarred and feathered for this but as a scientist for over 15 years, I am going strictly by the data and putting my own desire and bias to the side.

Obama 294
Romney 244

It will be 303 Obama if he picks up Colorado but it’s too close to analyze objectively.

Obama will get popular vote by 1.8%

We will still retain a solid house majority though, so take heart, 2014 is just around the corner to get more. Senate will be 54-46 when you count independents caucusing with Dems.


117 posted on 11/05/2012 7:26:08 AM PST by jackmercer
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To: kevkrom

Assuming no state that went for the GOP in 2008 switches, that at least 60% of the republican voters who voted for “The One” come home, we continue our hold on indies and figuring in my own Bristol on DWTS poll I believe Mitt wins 52% of the popular vote and around 300-310 EV.


118 posted on 11/05/2012 7:27:03 AM PST by redangus
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To: Gorilla44

Why is anyone surprised?


119 posted on 11/05/2012 7:29:15 AM PST by bgill (Evil doers are in every corner of our government. Have we passed the point of no return?)
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To: kevkrom

I made a mathematical error. I posted EVs in the range of 425-458, but what I meant was 325-358. Sorry. Still Romney with 53%, as stated int he earlier post.


120 posted on 11/05/2012 7:29:23 AM PST by Shery (in APO Land)
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To: Lazamataz

I’m also going with Barone’s prediction, Romney 315, Obama 223 EV.


121 posted on 11/05/2012 7:46:15 AM PST by billys kid ("Bury me on my head for one day this world will be upside down." (Diogenes))
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To: kevkrom

Romney-Ryan 52-45% 332-377 EVs. GOP Senate +8-10 seats House +5-12 seats.


122 posted on 11/05/2012 7:58:50 AM PST by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: kevkrom

If Romney wins PA and OH, I suspect that it will be a full blown ROUTE with Romney winning over 300 EV’s.

House: Rep +6
Senate: Rep +5


123 posted on 11/05/2012 8:00:01 AM PST by ExTxMarine (PRAYER: It's the only HOPE for real CHANGE in America!)
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To: Huskrrrr

The reason that I have been phone-banking, canvassing and holding down the fort in our local Romney office—is that I am so stressed.

I seriously don’t think we will know until election night. I look at all of the polls. I read their methodology and throw out the ridiculous ones. The state polls are the only thing that matters. The national polls mean nothing at this point.

I don’t think we know. It’s too close. I’ve played with the election maps hundreds of times. I wish I could be more certain. A lot of the state polls don’t look so hot for Romney, but the left clearly doesn’t have the enthusiasm that we have. There are too many states that are true toss ups. However, here are some of my guesses:

Romney state wins: CO, VA, FL, NC
Obama state wins: IA, NV, MI, WI, PA, MN
Toss Ups: OH, NH

However, nothing is certain! Any of those states in the Romney column or in the Obama column could flip. I think the lean Obama states are more likely to flip for Romney. Romney’s leads seem solid, and Obama’s seem more fluid.

I know what I want—Romney with a landslide and Obama kicked back to Chi. However, what I want doesn’t matter.

Just vote and take others with you...we’ve got 36 hours until we know for sure.


124 posted on 11/05/2012 8:19:29 AM PST by Suntracker
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To: kevkrom

Bishop Willard will lead in the popular vote, 47.8% to 47.2% with 5% wasted votes.

UN observers will mandate recounts in a dozen or more states. Regiments of pre-positioned Leftist lawyers will descend upon the recount centers in support.

The MSM will provide support in the form of selective reporting, Leftist talking points, targeted media blackouts and manufactured crises.

Cities will burn, or be threatened to be burned, if Odinga is not announced the winner of the popular vote.

No one will know what the outcome of the election is on November 6th, or 7th, or even 17th. The final decision will not take place until after Thanksgiving with the EV’s certified by dubious means.

After numerous recounts, lawsuits, unchallenged nationwide vote fraud, and multiple urban centers ablaze resulting in a modest but unreported body count, Odinga will be reinstalled as Preezy.

With no reelection to reduce his “flexibility”, Odinga will conduct “payback” and “revenge” on all those who opposed him.

The MSM will proclaim that Odinga now has “a clear mandate from the people”, and he will run with the ball doing end runs around Congress and the Constitution without challenge from an opposition party already willingly complicit in the march of Socialism. All down-ticket races are irrelevant.

We shall re-experience Florida 2000, with side helpings of ‘68 Watts, ‘77 New York, ‘92 Los Angeles, and 2005 New Orleans, with a heavy dash of 2011 London.

Oh, and Freerepublic will remain offline.


125 posted on 11/05/2012 8:27:16 AM PST by Old Sarge (We are officially over the precipice, we just havent struck the ground yet...)
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To: kevkrom

Romney 301

Ohio doesn’t matter. Minnesota puts him over 270 before Ohio finishes the count.

52-47


126 posted on 11/05/2012 8:46:19 AM PST by Hessian (Time flies like an arrow, fruit flies like a banana.)
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To: kevkrom

I predict a rout...

Romney/Ryan win popular vote 53%-46%
ECV 322 (could go as much as 359) for Romney/Ryan
Senate +9 for GOP, giving GOP 56 seats
House +4 for GOP, giving GOP 246 seats

We will know enough of this by 10 pm est to feel good about breaking out the good stuff on which we have already been sipping, and the armies of DIM lawyers waiting to challenge and demand recounts will have gone home to drown in their sorrows. A rout!


127 posted on 11/05/2012 8:46:34 AM PST by GGpaX4DumpedTea (I am a Tea Party descendant...steeped in the Constitutional Republic given to us by the Founders.)
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To: kevkrom

Romney 301

Ohio doesn’t matter. Minnesota puts him over 270 before Ohio finishes the count.

52-47


128 posted on 11/05/2012 8:46:45 AM PST by Hessian (Time flies like an arrow, fruit flies like a banana.)
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To: kevkrom

Romney 301

Ohio doesn’t matter. Minnesota puts him over 270 before Ohio finishes the count.

52-47


129 posted on 11/05/2012 8:46:59 AM PST by Hessian (Time flies like an arrow, fruit flies like a banana.)
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To: kevkrom

My predictions -

We will have victory tomorrow. It will be an early night, landslide for Romney (over 300 electoral votes). Not predicting Romney’s percentage but I think Obama will get 43% of the vote. Low turnout overall, black turnout historically low. We will take the senate and pick up some more house seats as well. The new bubble which I have dubbed - The Poll Bubble - will burst. There will be more talk about how wrong the polls were and why than the election itself. Dems will say Romney will have no mandate because turnout was low. I predict Obama will get only 3 to 5 states. Michigan will go red this year. Plus there will be some northeast state surprises - going red. Watch the exit polling, that’s where people will vent. Wednesday starts the next 4 years or hard work. We will win tomorrow because God is merciful and we have suffered enough and shown Him that we are deserving to keep our republic. Obama will be brought up on charges of treason eventually,specifically due to Libya, if we can get rid of McConnell and Boehner as leaders. Moochelle will be happy in Hawaii. MSNBC’s conga line of freaks will be taken away by men in white suits. We are planning a super bowl type buffet and will be celebrating.


130 posted on 11/05/2012 9:25:45 AM PST by MomwithHope (Buy and read Ameritopia by Mark Levin!)
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To: All

Afternoon ping!


131 posted on 11/05/2012 11:34:43 AM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
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To: kevkrom
"Lock In"   ? ?

LOL .. been tryin' to tell y'all for months :


                                                                   300 +

             

132 posted on 11/05/2012 12:06:13 PM PST by tomkat ( PAlabama '12 = RR = 300 +)
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To: kevkrom

315 EV’s for Romney (NC FL VA CO OH PA WI IA NH)


133 posted on 11/05/2012 12:06:34 PM PST by profit_guy
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To: jackmercer
We'll make you a nice crow sandwich for lunch on Wednesday !

Fries with that ?

134 posted on 11/05/2012 12:11:00 PM PST by tomkat ( PAlabama '12 = RR = 300 +)
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To: Suntracker

Good advice, thanks!


135 posted on 11/05/2012 1:19:33 PM PST by Huskrrrr
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To: Suntracker

Good advice, thanks!


136 posted on 11/05/2012 1:19:56 PM PST by Huskrrrr
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To: tomkat

“We’ll make you a nice crow sandwich for lunch on Wednesday !

Fries with that ?”

In all honesty, I’m glad you were at least charitable with your reply. I was expecting the normal “get out of here liberal troll” that I often get even though I have been a conservative for 25 years and a member here for 8 years.

I will admit I am not a die hard Tea Party conservative but I am right of center nonetheless and often agree with some moderate conservative writers that are blasphemous here. I also will forever admire the writings and policies of my heroes including Teddy Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, George HW Bush. I think our party needs realism, pragmatism, objective and painful embracing of facts and data.

This is why it is painful to see people like Drudge fool people into false hope like Baghdad Bob from a rooftop as the city was encircled by American tanks. Rasmussen and Gallup are running very risky likely voter screens that killed them in 2010. Look it up at RCP, they did the worst of all pollsters, off by 5 to 10 percentage points!

These are what the data tell us:

We will maintain a very SOLID majority in the house. To me, nothing else matters. There will be no disaster policies because of that fact. The conservatives will be writing the budgets and that’s that. We will be fine as a nation because of this.

The Senate could have been ours if we ran more pragmatic candidates in three or four races but as it stands, we will see a 54-46 or 53-47 split in favor of dems.

Here’s where the data are overwhelming but people are swallowing Baghdad Drudge:

Obama has PA, WI, MI, OH and NV. The data are overwhelming on this point. Those states are checkmate. One or two polls showing Romney up or tied vs 10 others that show him down 2 to 4 in each state just don’t pass social science muster. Science has taught me that cherry picking data points RARELY works.

I’m sticking with my previous and painful call:

Obama 294 (303 if he pulls off CO but data too muddy there)
Romney 244

Popular Vote: Obama by 1.8%

The polls are now baked in for 2012 and what could be done has been done. They ate it in 2000 and 2004, it’s time for us to eat it and take it like men. There will be another day to fight!

Lets get ready for a 2/3 Republican super majority in 2014 congressional elections!


137 posted on 11/05/2012 1:25:28 PM PST by jackmercer
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To: jackmercer
Au contraire, Jack

Rasmussen Party Id: Republicans +5.8 (All Time Record)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 11/05/2012 | Scott Rasmussen



We'll keep that sammy on the hot plate for ya              ;-)

138 posted on 11/05/2012 1:35:41 PM PST by tomkat ( PAlabama '12 = RR = 300 +)
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To: Raycpa

“Romney 51.5, Obama 47.5, other 1%.”

Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner. That’s my projection as well.


139 posted on 11/05/2012 1:39:42 PM PST by diamond6 (Hulu has "The Hope and the Change" for free: http://www.hulu.com/#!watch/409925)
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To: kevkrom
Obama wins Presidency, taking Ohio, Penn, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada. Romney keeps Virginia and Florida.

Democrats gain 1 Senate seat. The House stays GOP, with may 3 to 5 seats lost to the Dummies.

140 posted on 11/05/2012 1:41:03 PM PST by Sam Gamgee (May God have mercy upon my enemies, because I won't. - Patton)
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To: Raycpa

Romney 51.5%
ZERO 47.5%
Other 1.0%

Romney 314
ZERO 224

FL, NC, VA, OH, PA, MI, WI, NH, and CO all in the win column.

IA and NV in the loss column.

+ 5 GOP Senate seats.

Fox will call it at 12:01 EST, only an hour after the first results are announced. Pennsylvania will be the surprise state to put Romney over the top.

At which time, my wife and I will take the champagne off the ice and eat some pie. :-)


141 posted on 11/05/2012 1:46:58 PM PST by diamond6 (Hulu has "The Hope and the Change" for free: http://www.hulu.com/#!watch/409925)
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To: kevkrom
EV- Romney- 266 Obama-272

PV- Romney- 48.9% Obama- 48.2%

Senate R-50 D-50

House R-236 D-199

Massive dim fraud allows punk POTUS to steal Ohio.

Hope like hell I am wrong, but these bastards are not to be trusted.

142 posted on 11/05/2012 1:54:47 PM PST by catfish1957 (My dream for hope and change is to see the punk POTUS in prison for treason)
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To: kevkrom

I predict win or lose that I will have a hangover wednesday morning.


143 posted on 11/05/2012 2:54:40 PM PST by linn37 (Newt supporter here.)
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To: jackmercer

And Barones opinion? Is that just wishful thinking on his part?


144 posted on 11/05/2012 3:00:20 PM PST by linn37 (Newt supporter here.)
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To: kevkrom

My conservative estimate is Romney 52% - Obama 47%.

Electoral College: Romney - 285 Obama - 253.

http://www.270towin.com/

Again, being very conservative (and not going with my gut) I am throwing the EC votes of PA, MI, NE and WI to Obama with Romney getting Ohio.

Gutwise, I think Romney will get WI and NE and close in PA. I thing MI has too many inbred Democrat union morons to overcome. That gives R 300 - O 238. Throw in PA and MI and it’s R 336 - O 202.


145 posted on 11/05/2012 3:16:14 PM PST by Fledermaus (Democrats are dangerous and evil. Republicans are just useful idiots.)
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To: Sam Gamgee

Wow. What a pessimist.


146 posted on 11/05/2012 3:35:58 PM PST by diamond6 (Hulu has "The Hope and the Change" for free: http://www.hulu.com/#!watch/409925)
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To: jackmercer

Every radio show (not the big conservatives but the neutral ones like john and ken) and mainstream TV (not fox) says Obama will win and they go over the numbers and sound as definitive as freepers who say Romney will win.

I honestly don’t know who will win and I don’t trust the positive freepers because last time here everyone was sure McCain could pull it out. I felt deceived by the happy happy skittles poopers here.

I go over the maps and numbers and I frankly can’t be sure which states’ polls are more accurate, what turnout will be where, what cheating might get past, or anything.

I just don’t know. But praying and hoping for a clear Romney win!


147 posted on 11/05/2012 4:05:14 PM PST by Yaelle
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To: Yaelle

You’ve got to go beyond the polls and look what’s inside them. It’s like the statistical information that you get for a baseball player. You see a certain player has a .300 batting average, but that really doesn’t tell you much about what kind of player he really is until you look at the other statistical information.

Here are some numbers to consider:

Rasmussen just came out with a poll that 5.8% more of the voters self identify as Republicans than Rats.

Just about every poll, including most of the left leaning ones are saying that Romney is getting 8% more independents than Obama.

In almost every national poll, ZERO is not getting 50% of the vote, and the undecideds will break for Romney. It is usually a rule of thumb that undecideds will probably break about 67% for the challenger. Those that are undecided are not really for ZERO.

The ballots requested for absentee and early voting are approximately 263,000 better for the Republicans than 2008. That is a huge sign of voter apathy for ZERO and voter enthusiasm for Romney.

Virtually ALL of the polls that have ZERO ahead or tied have unsustainable/unrealistic turnout projections for Rats, most showing the same or better projections than 2008. That’s just not going to happen. People are just not excited about ZERO. When you account for this, it becomes clear that the true numbers are not that close at all.

Dick Morris, Newt Gingrich, and Michael Barone all say what I’m saying above and all of them are projecting a 6% popular vote victory and 320 EVs. When you look at all of the above factors, what they are saying makes a lot more sense than the crap we’re being fed by the MSM.


148 posted on 11/05/2012 4:28:03 PM PST by diamond6 (Hulu has "The Hope and the Change" for free: http://www.hulu.com/#!watch/409925)
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To: diamond6

The 263,000 is for Ohio.


149 posted on 11/05/2012 5:56:38 PM PST by diamond6 (Hulu has "The Hope and the Change" for free: http://www.hulu.com/#!watch/409925)
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To: linn37

“And Barones opinion? Is that just wishful thinking on his part?”

That article Barone wrote wasn’t wishful thinking, it was punditry to sell more page views...fun and entertaining no doubt, but nonsense. Though I REALLY wish that anecdotal punditry translated to measurable, social science data, it doesn’t. The worst part is that even some of his anecdotes weren’t based on reality.

When I don’t see historical precedents COMBINED with numbers and data in an article about the election, I don’t take it as a data point, I take it as entertainment. Anyone that looks at that article as anything beyond that, just bought snake oil.


150 posted on 11/05/2012 6:07:43 PM PST by jackmercer
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