What starts in Day 5-9 is typical. But it could start in day 2. It could start in day 10. It does not always take the same number of days to reach the day 12 column.
Posted on 10/02/2014 6:01:16 AM PDT by BenLurkin
The health officials said 80 people may have come into contact with Duncan, NBC reported. Earlier, they had put the figure at up to 18, including five children.
State officials delivered the order on Wednesday night to the family of the patient, who has been identified as Thomas Eric Duncan of Liberia. Family members must stay home until Oct. 19 and not have any visitors without approval, officials said.
"We have tried and true protocols to protect the public and stop the spread of this disease," said Dr. David Lakey, Texas health commissioner. "This order gives us the ability to monitor the situation in the most meticulous way."
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
And the info comes from overseas sources.
Well, they lived in an apartment building.
If the sheets and clothing he’d been ‘soiling’ during his illness got washed in the community laundry room...it could technically be everyone in the complex.
You know how when you’re loading big stuff like sheets and towels into a washer they’ll scrape the sides and stuff as you put them in? Imagine they were covered in ebola laden puke and you were the next person to grab that washer handle to load your laundry...
12 to 18, plus the 80 is more than 80.
In a clarification of earlier reports, Dallas County Health and Human Services spokeswoman Erikka Neroes says the Ebola contact investigation has grown ‘to more than 80’ people, which includes the 12 to 18 people who 1st came into contact with the infected man, as well as others they in turn had contact with; she was unable to specify how those initial people came in contact with the larger group - @AP
From BreakingNews.com
more than 80 including the 12 to 18
I posted: 80 plus the 12 to 18
Tell me why you think those mean different things?
By the way, the source of these numbers appear to be the interview by Zach Thompson with Dallas County Health and Human Services spoke with News 8 on Thursday.
First hand, instead of our 3rd hand reports of the report:
“We want to clarify. People may have had contact with this individual, we need to interview them. Close contacts are only those individuals we need to do medical monitoring or taking their temperature. So that number is a small number. The contact number now is up to 80 people. [That] does not mean that they are showing any symptoms, but that’s the number of people that has come in contact with the patient,” Thompson said on News 8 Daybreak.
“We are working from a list of about 100 potential or possible contacts and will soon have an official contact tracing number that will be lower. Out of an abundance of caution, we’re starting with this very wide net, including people who have had even brief encounters with the patient or the patient’s home. The number will drop as we focus in on those whose contact may represent a potential risk of infection,” said Carrie Williams with the Texas Department of State Health Services.
Family members of Duncan have been ordered to stay home or they’ll face criminal charges.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/10/01/texas-ebola-patient/16525649/
Article on the Drudge states vomiting start at day 10. If he was admitted to the hospital on 9/28 with heavy duty vomiting wouldn’t that put the onset around the 18th? It would not be unreasonable to believe he was in contact with many more than 18 and probably more than 80 people in that 10 day timeframe.
It is not that exact for everyone.
Symptoms may appear anywhere from 2 to 21 days after exposure to Ebola, but the average is 8 to 10 days.
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/symptoms/index.html
was just trying to make a simple point that obviously has been lost here.
1. News reports are saying that the number that has been exposed is 80 people, or like in your quoted article up to 80.
2. The new reports are now saying over 80.
Its a subtle difference, and it may be nothing. That’s all I was pointing out...
Wasn’t attacking your article, was just pointing out it seems that they are changing the story slightly.
I understand symptoms can appear 2 - 21 days after exposure. Maybe I misread this chart, I thought this is a chart of how the disease progresses. Am I wrong??
I read the chart at your link as typical progression of symptoms. But the heading above that says the 2-21 days.
If you are vomiting and the other descriptions of day ten, those are the symptoms. It may not start for 21 days, it might start after only 2.
I get it. Example with the flu Day 1 Headache backache Day 2 Fever Nausea So if day 10 of contracting the ebola virus (not the 2 -21 day incubation period) is vomiting, he was taken from the building by ambulance vomiting on 9/28, that would mean onset of the disease is much earlier than 9/26 as officials would have us believe. I cant imagine how many people he was in contact with....and then how many people they were in contact with. Not 18 and much more than 80.
You’re looking for a predictable date for onset of symptoms and therefore contagion in order to estimate potential exposure. That’s understandable. But, onset of symptoms varies from one to the next.
“The number of “contact traces” for a man diagnosed with Ebola earlier this week in Dallas has risen to 100, officials say, as they add secondary contacts to a list of people being monitored for symptoms of the deadly virus.
Earlier today, Erikka Neros, a spokeswoman for the Dallas County Health and Human Services department, said the number of “contact traces” stood at about 80 because the 12 to 18 people known to have been directly exposed to the patient then had contact with others.
Hours later, a spokeswoman with the Texas Department of State Health Services said officials were “working from a list of about 100 potential or possible contacts.”
No, it is not a rigid timeline. His progression of illness fits within the guideline range.
Four days before he flew to Dallas to visit family members, cargo driver Thomas Eric Duncan helped his landlords take their 19-year-old daughter, Marthalene Williams, to a clinic that was so crowded with Ebola patients that it turned her away, The New York Times reported. The family, which had tried and failed to get an ambulance, took the convulsing woman back home, where she died hours later. “He was holding her by the legs,” a neighbor told the newspaper.
Williams’ brother, who was also in the taxi, started getting symptoms a week ago and quickly died, the family told the Times. Three other women from the same area also got sick at the same time. By then, Duncan was already gone from Liberia.
After quitting his job on Sept. 4, Duncan left Monrovia on a Sept. 19 flight and arrived in the U.S. the next day. He started showing symptoms Sept. 24 and went to a Dallas hospital for treatment Sept. 26. He was sent home, only to be brought back by ambulance on Sept. 28 and diagnosed with the deadly virus.
“But, onset of symptoms varies from one to the next” Everyone keeps mentioning onset. I know it’s 2 -21 days for the incubation period. That’s not what I’m talking about.....disease progression. Vomiting is around day 10...so that gives you a rough idea of onset. See chart “progression of illness if left untreated”.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/10/01/texas-ebola-patient/16525649/
What starts in Day 5-9 is typical. But it could start in day 2. It could start in day 10. It does not always take the same number of days to reach the day 12 column.
Day 5 symptoms may not appear until day 21.
Everyone is hungup on the incubation period and not how the disease progresses. Ignor the 2 -21 day incubation period and concentrate on the disease progression chart. Vomiting starts around day 10. That would mean not only was he in contact with many more people then 18, 80 or whatever, he may have been well aware of his illness before he reached the country. He knew he was in close contact with it. And if you count back 10 days from the onset of vomiting you would have somewhere around September 18th. Am I the only one who sees this??
That is including the incubation period. That is a typical after becoming infected. It is not day ten after incubation.
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