The real average
Posted on 11/04/2015 2:43:52 PM PST by conservativejoy
Lot of fanfare about this among the politerati on Twitter (politertwitterati?), who’ve waited four months for hard evidence that Trumpmanias begun to cool. One national poll showing Carson ahead of Trump can be dismissed as a fluke; two showing Carson ahead are interesting, but not quite convincing. An average of four polls showing Carson in the lead, though, is officially fodder for 'trend!' storylines.
What a long, strange trip its been.
Youve got at least three reasons to shrug at that if you’re a Trump fan. One: Carsons not going to be the nominee. He might win Iowa but even that seems hard to believe given what a smart, tight ship Ted Cruzs campaign is running. It could be that Trump has reached his ceiling of support but thats enough to win some of the early states if his competition divides the rest of the electorate among themselves evenly enough.
Two: Matt Bevins shocking landslide last night after trailing in the polls for months gives you a reason (maybe not a compelling reason, but a reason) to think that polls are chronically underestimating outsider candidates like him and Trump. None other than the head of the DGA credited 'Trumpmania' with Bevins surprising win. It may be that both in Kentucky and nationally, theres a critical mass of right leaning 'silent majority' voters whom pollsters don’t expect to turn out on election night but then do, rendering all the polls of 'likely voters' meaningless. The question is, if the extent of Trump’s support is being underestimated, might the extent of Carson’s support be underestimated too?
Three: When push comes to shove, the national polls dont matter. Theyre interesting as a barometer of Republican sentiment generally, but only the state polls mean anything as predictors of individual caucuses and primaries. And Trumps lead in New Hampshire, his strongest early state, is steady as she goes.
Or is it?
The survey of 400 likely [NH] GOP primary voters, conducted Thursday through Sunday, puts Trump at the top with 18 percent support. Carson is on his heels at 16 percent , within the poll’s 4.9 percent margin of error.
Florida Sen. Rubios support more than quintupled, from 2 percent to 11 percent, while New Jersey Gov. Christies support rose from 2 percent to 8 percent. Both candidates are also seeing big jumps in their favorability ratings.
'Underneath there has been some movement,' Koczela said. 'Both Marco Rubio and Chris Christie were perceived as doing well in the debate and have seen their numbers climb substantially from where they were in September.'
'There’s considerable potential now for Rubio to start to clinch the deal,' Scala said, adding that the poll shows Rubio getting high marks from both traditional and tea party-type conservatives.
Rubios favorable rating in the poll jumped 10 points since September to 56 percent. Chris Christies favorable rating jumped 12 points to 51 percent. Trump: Down three points, now sitting on an even 42/42 split. Thats a bad number for his big state. When Republicans were asked who they thought won the debate last week, Rubio also won that handily 27 percent versus 20 percent for Cruz and 13 percent for Christie. Trump finished with just seven percent, tied with Carly Fiorina. But Trump fans dont have to sweat this poll too much either. For one thing, this data bodes well for him:
New Hampshirites are trending towards revolution. Rubio, for all his gifts, is every inch a Bush/McCain politician. He’s not the guy youd bet on when the electorates in 'burn it all down' mode. Beyond that, though, theres good reason to think this polls an outlier. Eighteen percent is the lowest level of support detected for Trump in New Hampshire in three months. The latest Monmouth poll, which was taken over the same post-debate period as this one (and was also a poll of likely voters), had him comfortably ahead of Carson by 10 points at 26 percent. Other recent (but pre-debate) polls have had him at 28 and even 38 percent. And the last WBUR poll in September also had him a bit lower than most other polls did at the time, suggesting some persistent difference in their methodology. Until we see a dent to his polling average in NH, which has him 14 points ahead of the field, its probably best to treat this as noise.
I looked at them with interest, but trust - no. the only poll that counts will be the primaries.
This thread is hilarious.
Trump is leading in the polls: “GO TRUMP!! ON TO THE PRESIDENCY!! HE’S WINNING, JUST LOOK AT THE POLLS!!”
Trump falls behind (or into a tie): “FAKE POLLS!!!!”
These Trumpettes are too much!
If Tea Party Conservatives are liking Rubio, they are not paying attention. This is surprising as I think of Tea Party folks as being informed.
This is why many do not believe a lot of these polls.
>>adding that the poll shows Rubio getting high marks from both traditional and tea party-type conservatives
I assume that “traditional” means the Cheap Labor Express types, but where did they find tea party-type conservatives who want Rubio?
These polls are on the heels of a debate that had some pretty cool zingers from Carson and Rubio ... even Christie ... which makes me think the poll is measuring sensationalism and not the meat of a message per se’
And perhaps the polls will be wrong after all. Anyways, good luck to Trump from a Cruz supporter.
I’m not buying the bogus and skewed polls.
polls have been all over the place imho. when the field gets thinned out more then the polls may make more sense. however, with the agnst towards non-eGOP canidates i just cant trust them yet.
i favor Cruz as well, see trump as an ‘ice breaker’ forcing conservative issues outside the belt way news cycle. would have no problem pulling the lever (woops - old age alert) for trump.
I don't see the mutual exclusivity.
/johnny
I wouldn’t count Rubio out just yet. Trump is making fun of his sweating and needing water. Rubio is going to come out at the debate and say it is a medical condition and a disability. Trump will have to stop making fun of him. Now his finances are a whole other story. Trump is going to get the nomination for sure.
I don't see anyone supporting Carson on FR!
I see a great deal of support for Trump.
We also know that every day there is a new threat to Trump from someone and then they disappear.
I would vote for either one. The others, probably not.
Carson really does look sleepy,doesn’t he?
I don’t talk like Trump can’t be up in the polls. I think Trump was up in the polls, and is now in a rough tie in the polls.
My point is that all of the Trump supporters could not stop posting poll result after poll result whenever a poll came out showing Trump on top. Now, all of a sudden, when Trump is no longer the clear leader in the polls, the polls are suddenly “FAKE!!!!”
Just remember FreeRepublic is not a representative sample of America. McCain and Romney had essentially zero supporters here.
I agree with what you are saying, but please watch your tone as some Trump supporters might think you are trolling.
We get it.We really do,can you think of something else to post?
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