Posted on 02/10/2016 8:13:23 AM PST by conservativejoy
Since the modern primary system kicked in back in 76, no Republican has won without taking Iowa or New Hampshire. Since Cruz took Iowa and Trump was expected to take New Hampshire, that put Rubio in a difficult position.
However, Rubio's team had an answer for that: 3rd in IA, 2nd in NH and 1st in SC. It hadn't been done that way on the Republican side, but that did seem like a plausible path to the nomination.
Unfortunately, Rubio's 5th place finish in NH means both Jeb and Kasich will stay in and split the establishment vote. It also means Rubio will probably be relegated to 3rd place in SC.
Keep in mind that Trump is in first in almost every state and he has a relatively solid base of support. He can definitely be beaten, but that is unlikely to happen unless the race narrows down to two candidates.
Cruz's win in IA, his deep pockets and his 2nd place national standing means he's definitely in through March.
The establishment lane can't consolidate soon enough to make an impact and even if it does, it's doubtful that any of them could beat Trump 1-on-1 in a rabidly anti-establishment year.
So, either the vote will consolidate around Cruz who can beat Trump 1-on-1 or all these candidates who can't win will bleed support from Cruz and practically guarantee a Trump win.
PS: It is possible that enough delegates might be bled off of Trump and Cruz to throw the race into a brokered convention, but once the GOP gets to that point it's between a rock and a hard place. I'm not a supporter of Donald Trump, but if he has the most delegates, he DESERVES to be the nominee. If the establishment were to rob Trump of the nomination at the convention, the backlash would be so enormous that it would practically guarantee a loss to the Democrats no matter whom the GOP selected as a nominee.
So, if Donald Trump is your guy, vote for him, but if you want someone other than Trump, it seems likely that your only realistic option at this point is Ted Cruz.
What are you, some kind of sTRUMPet?
Trump has plenty of money and power. He doesn’t need the job of POTUS to obtain either of those things.
Ted on the other hand....
... and when he takes his oath as President of the United States, these people will continue to say “.... but Cruz and Rubio are the still the front runners!”
Frankly, if Donald Trump really wanted to make America great again, he’d drop out and throw his support to Ted Cruz.
Frankly, if Ted Cruz really was a principled conservative (TM) he would not be allowing anonymous and money laundered donations to his Washington Cartel managed Super PAC.
The establishment still does not want change
Cruz’s votes cost $18
Trump’s votes cost $40.
BUT, TRUMP WON over 3 times more delegates than Cruz, Jeb and Rubio so his votes were cheaper.
Good point.
I think this death knell for the establishment is a bit early to write.....
Trump and Cruz will most likely combine to roughly 50% of the vote +/- in the south, how that will be broken up will really be a matter of how well Trump does attacking Cruz and how well Cruz handles it. Given the ads released yesterday in SC, I’d put my money on Trump chipping away at Ted... The kids playing with dolls ad isn’t going to sway anyone IMHO, and while Trumps attack ad is rather traditional, I suspect his tact will be more effective.
With that said, don’t count out the establishment, while I agree with the fact, with the establishment vote fractured its impossible for any of them to win, and NH did not move that fracturing any closer to ending... The difference between SC and Super Tuesday is a full week.. IF, and I admit this is a big IF, IF one of these establishment candidates comes out the clear winner, a week is more than enough time to begin to coalesce the establishment voters toward them. Trump and Cruz are going to be busy with each other, because frankly neither of them can win a 3 man race at this point, while the other is still viable. That doesn’t mean that either of them could not win a 2 man head to head race.... just that as long as its a 3 man race, their combined totals of 50-60% of the vote, will lose via plurality to the 3rd candidate.
If the establishment hasn’t picked a main guy before super Tuesday, then it becomes difficult, but not impossible for any establishment player to win, less and less likely by the day, but that doesn’t mean its impossible. If it winds up dropping to a 2 man race, and Trump or Cruz truly do have a ceiling of 35-40% of the vote, the establishment candidate can slowly and methodically win the delegate count... I don’t think that’s going to happen, but this is politics folks.... Rubio just dropped 10 points in 2 days because he shot himself in the head point blank... no one would have predicted that last saturday afternoon.
We shall see how this plays out... my money at this point still says Trump for the win... but time will tell.
As well, Cruz has a great big problem with a lot of us who believe that we need to beef up the constitutional requirements for the office of presidency, which clearly states that the president must be born on American soil of two citizen parents. After Obama, who at least claims to be native born, it should crystal clear to everyone that this clause written into the very constitution itself by our forefathers is very good. Not only do we need to pass legislation mandating this, but also that the candidates must provide ironclad indisputable proof both parents were citizen, and the candidate was born here. In addition, the candidate should provide academic records, health records, and pass a top-level security clearance. Had we a proviso that the candidate must pass a security clearance, we never would have had Mr. Clinton and we would not now have Mrs. Clinton. So, personally, since I think this is very important, I am not going to vote for Cruz (or Rubio) even in the unlikely event either is the nominee, because I want there to be no impediment for a future congress to do something about this, which I think, would be a front and center issue for the GOP if not for Cruz/Rubio/Jindahl. We had better do something about this issue and do it soon, or someday we will have the spectacle of an anchor baby perhaps, from China, Mexico, Somalia, etc., who has no real connection to this country, who may speak little or no English, running for president and being “elected” by all the other grown-up anchor babies and illegals. This is far more likely to happen, if we do away with the electoral college, so that 10-20 biggest cities with lots of illegals and lots of fraud effectively take our country away from us. In my opinion, electing Cruz would be the absolutely worst thing we could do to ourselves. On the other hand, Cruz would make a great supreme court justice, and there is no reason why he could not be.
Rubio is the spoiler for both the governors and Trump/Cruz.
Somebody needs to get word to both Trump and Cruz to call a truce for SC. Rubio alone should be their target.
Rubio must be stopped in SC. If he is then either Trump or Cruz will win.
If Rubio is not stopped soon, America loses.
....This has never been about the country in Donald’s mind. This is about Donald having power directly instead of buying it through Democrat politicians.
Trump does not have the knowledge or the judgment to lead this country.
Trump should be laughed out by now. So he made a lot of money playing his intimidation hand,dealing with the mobs and buying politicians. That makes him presidential material?
The Cruz kiddie ad is perfect. DT is still emotionally 5 years old.
You are right. Unfortunately I do not see Trump attacking anyone other than Cruz.
I suspect Rubio and Bush are not dead yet.
Seems better to keep RINOs splitting the RINO vote.
It always was.
The Nation is not yet so stupid as to actually contemplate another Bush Presidency, Rubio shot himself in the foot with his support for Amenesty, Christie shot himself in the foot with his chummyness with Barack Odumbo, Kasich has no appeal beyond a small circle, Huckabee was dead on Arrival, Fiorina was unable to effectively compete, and Carson hurt himself with statements about Gun control and the Pyramids.
Carson was the only real potential contender for Trump or Cruz. Not only did some of his statements hurt him, he came across as too nice of a guy.
This year people want a mean Bastard because they are angry, and they want their wrath directed at those agencies and people they regard as their tormentors.
Trump is obviously a mean SOB, and Cruz has proven he can be a mean SOB as well by bucking the party establishment and calling Mitch McConnell a liar on the Senate Floor. (He is.)
Trump and Cruz were always the prime movers in these races. Carson was the only candidate that might have beat one or both of them, but it is now too late for him to do so.
What's not to like?
Romney won a bunch of states at 30%-40% of the vote. Trump can do the same, IMO.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012
“Cruz would make a great supreme court justice, and there is no reason why he could not be.”
While he would probably make a good Justice, there’s a congress full of reasons why he won’t be. I can’t see him making it to VP either, although I’d love it. It’d be nice to see all his enemies forced to deal with him.
Bingo. If the establishment really wants to stop Trump, then they would force their candidates out and endorse Cruz. I don’t think they want to stop Trump badly enough to do that though. They’d literally prefer ANYONE to a solid conservative like Cruz.
Do you realize how flat out retarded that makes you sound?
Candidates, by law, are constrained from having ANY control over PACs. So you are actually upset that Ted Cruz is NOT violating federal election laws?!?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.