Posted on 04/01/2016 10:00:49 AM PDT by PJ-Comix
He's really just under a one.
1. Not wanted even in a brokered convention.
I’d say a 7. Cruz has been working the delegate game and the delegates are NOT GOPe by default. Delegates are people like us who are involved in local politics. Many of them hate the GOPe too.
So many of the delegates are probably scared of a Trump nomination so in comparison they like Cruz. In a way Trump has actually made Cruz favorable to many who didn’t like him before. Kind of like how Hillary makes Joe Biden look good.
There will not be a brokered convention, but there will likely by a contested one.
-10! Trump will cut a deal with the Rube for his delegates support and the Rube will be the VP and the bone tossed to the GOPE traitors for their support in the general. I support Cruz but see no way he can win the nomination and he will not be chosen in a brokered convention, the GOPE pond scum will not allow it.
I’m with you—1.
Zero. Didn’t you get the memo?
Thank you, finally someone gets it that the delegates are not the same as GOPe.
1, and that’s being generous.
Whenever you have 2 factions vying for leadership and neither faction has enough power to claim it outright, the end game is nearly always a compromised leader who was not even in the running.
The fact so many Cruz backers think if it gets to a contested convention their guy wins shows just how completely naive or willfully ignorant they are to human nature and political history.
Seriously deluded. Cruz managed to swipe a few delegates here and there. Big deal. The RNC controls many of the Trump delegates, some of the Cruz delegates, and all of the Kasich and Rubio delegates. They have been working overtime on selection of delegates in states where the party chooses, or where they can sneak them in. They will have way more than Cruz could ever muster on a second ballot. Put down the Kool-Aid.
I would say minus 10
They are getting ready for Paul Ryan
Yes, they all really are that dim. Cruz included.
You are right that in the event Cruz somehow became the nominee even though far behind Trump in delegates, Cruz would lose the election in a landslide of epic proportions. I disagree that the same would befall Trump. Cruz voters, in places like Texas and Oklahoma would end up voting for Trump. Trump would grow the map in other states hard hit by globalism. He doesn’t need Cruz, and at this point, I wouldn’t want him.
Florida and Ohio are kind of outliers due to the anti-trump movement backing kasich and Rubio in those states.
Trump came out 1-1 with +33 delegates. Trump failed to get a majority in Florida and lost badly in Ohio.
Trump can’t get over 50%. That’s why he will lose. He might break that streak in his home state of he doesn’t step on his Johnson again between now and then.
That is why I think Cruz can win only on the third ballot.
100 delegates between SC and TN. The TN delegates would see Ted gaining votes on the second ballot and only support Ted on the third ballot.
8
If Trump gets a majority on the first ballot, it’s all over.
After the first ballot, it comes down to individual state rules and to who the individual delegates are. That is a very tricky question, one I assume Cruz and the establishment are studying more than you could possibly imagine. Delegates are bound for varying numbers of ballots, so change may be very slow, which will look to some like a deadlock.
Some delegates will be loyal to Cruz/Trump out of inherent loyalty. Others are bound to those two but hate their candidate - but they get a trip to the convention and a chance to be a part of history, so they don’t care how they have to vote. A whole lost are just party hacks, there to represent their state party and move up in the national party. Others are just along for the ride, and they can be influenced by anyone who explains why ____ (fill in the blank) is the right thing for the party and for America.
I don’t know what the distribution of those groups is, but that distribution and who gets to the open-minded delegates (yes, there really are a lot of delegates who do not have a fixed opinion on the Trump/Cruz/Jeb/Kasich/Romney question) is what will decide a contested convention.
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