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Election Update: National Polls Show The Race Tightening — But State Polls Don’t (How is that?)
Five Thirty Eight.com ^ | August 21, 2016 | Nate Silver

Posted on 08/21/2016 4:10:43 PM PDT by cba123

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To: cba123

It’s also easy to skew the results when your sample is D+6 - D+12 in places like Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia—the 2016 version of Zogby’s secret sauce. Try to convince as many GOP/conservative voters as possible that Trump has already lost and discourage them from showing up at the polls in November.


21 posted on 08/21/2016 5:15:09 PM PDT by ExNewsExSpook
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To: dsc

“No, he didn’t. None of the things .... have actually caused damage”

Anything you say. The polls that show him losing Florida are the same polls that showed him winning 6-8 weeks ago.


22 posted on 08/21/2016 5:22:36 PM PDT by MaxistheBest
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To: pb929

A lib friend bet me a small sum that Hillary would win by at least 7% of the popular vote.

This was a few weeks ago when everything looked perfect for her, and the NYT editorial board was congratulating itself for the sophomoric Hindenburg analogy to describe Trump’s campaign.


23 posted on 08/21/2016 5:25:43 PM PDT by oblomov (We have passed the point where "law," properly speaking, has any further application. - C. Thomas)
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To: txrefugee

Exactly. I think they know that Trump is going to win big in the popular vote. They plan to cheat the hag into the WH by fraud in the swing states and an electoral vote win.

I would not buy that for a second, but the truth is, Even if it was a cheat win for the hag, will anyone do anything about it?


24 posted on 08/21/2016 5:30:05 PM PDT by dforest
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To: cba123

State polls are done less often so they tend to trail behind the trends. In a couple weeks some more state polls will start coming out and I think you will be very happy !!


25 posted on 08/21/2016 5:30:19 PM PDT by IVAXMAN
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To: cba123

I can’t believe that Ohio would actually vote for Hillary Clinton but she has spent a fortune on negative advertising in this state. It is near cosntant and I’m sure it has been effective. Trump has been having rallies but I think he needs to start hitting her hard with some negative ads of his own.


26 posted on 08/21/2016 5:46:57 PM PDT by RC one
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To: MaxistheBest

What I’m saying is, Zero won by 74,000 votes. That’s a flip of 38,000. People have posted GOP registration INCREASES of more than than in just four counties alone. So even if Trump “only” wins 90% of the new Republicans, and EVEN if turnout is at 2012 levels for Cankles (it won’t be) Trump would still win FL easily.


27 posted on 08/21/2016 5:50:23 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: drypowder

so get ready for a vote fraud massacre against Trump.

A no justice no peace situation if Ive ever heard of one.


28 posted on 08/21/2016 7:10:41 PM PDT by TalBlack (Evil doesn't have a day job....)
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To: MaxistheBest

“The polls that show him losing Florida are the same polls that showed him winning 6-8 weeks ago.”

Almost every poll is crooked. Their accuracy is contingent not upon voters’ opinions, but on what the demonrats need to say.


29 posted on 08/21/2016 8:13:53 PM PDT by dsc (Any attempt to move a government to the left is a crime against humanity.)
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To: newfreep

Maryland just spent a ton of money on extra election equipment because they’re expecting a record turnout.

Think all the ‘billies are coming down from the hills to vote Clinton?


30 posted on 08/21/2016 10:56:19 PM PDT by Salamander (I ride by night, and I travel in fear, that in this darkness, I will disappear...)
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To: cba123

State polls often done by newspapers or colleges, both typically lieberal.


31 posted on 08/21/2016 11:26:44 PM PDT by stocksthatgoup (Don't argue with a Liberal. Ask him simple questions and listen to him stutterThe media fix is in)
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To: dforest

A popular vote - electoral college inversion is far more likely to favor Trump, with him winning swing states narrowly while Clinton wins California by 40 points and only loses Texas and Arizona by 5 or 7 points due the Mexican American vote.


32 posted on 08/22/2016 12:01:42 AM PDT by only1percent ( who)
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