Posted on 05/03/2017 12:28:01 AM PDT by RightCenter
Electric cars are coming fast -- and that’s not just the opinion of carmakers anymore. Total SA, one of the world’s biggest oil producers, is now saying EVs may constitute almost a third of new-car sales by the end of the next decade.
The surge in battery powered vehicles will cause demand for oil-based fuels to peak in the 2030s, Total Chief Energy Economist Joel Couse said at Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s conference in New York on Tuesday. EVs will make up 15 percent to 30 percent of new vehicles by 2030, after which fuel “demand will flatten out,” Couse said. “Maybe even decline.”
Couse’s projection for electric cars is the highest yet by a major oil company and exceeds BNEF’s own forecast, said Colin McKerracher, head of advanced transport analysis at Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
“That’s big,” McKerracher said. “That’s by far the most aggressive we’ve seen by any of the majors."
Other oil companies have been trimming their long-term forecasts for oil demand. Royal Dutch Shell Plc Chief Executive Officer Ben van Beurden said in March that oil demand may peak in the late 2020s. It set up a business unit to identify the clean technologies where it could be most profitable.
Electric cars are beginning to compete with gasoline models on both price and performance. The most expensive part of an electric car is the battery, which can make up half the total cost, according to BNEF. The first electric cars to be competitive on price have been in the luxury class, led by Tesla Inc.’s Model S, which is now the best-selling large luxury car in the U.S.
But battery prices are dropping by about 20 percent a year, and automakers have been spending billions to electrify their fleets. Volkswagen AG is targeting 25 percent of its sales to be electric by 2025. Toyota Motor Corp. plans to phase out fossil fuels altogether by 2050.
Electric cars currently make up about 1 percent of global vehicle sales, but traditional carmakers are preparing for transformation. In 2018, Volkswagen plows into electrification with an Audi SUV and the first high-speed U.S. charging network to rival Tesla’s Superchargers. Tata Motors Ltd.’s Jaguar and Volvo Cars both have promising cars on the way too, and by 2020, the avalanche really begins, with Mercedes-Benz, VW, General Motors Co. and others releasing dozens of new models.
“By 2020 there will be over 120 different models of EV across the spectrum,” said Michael Liebreich, founder of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. “These are great cars. They will make the internal combustion equivalent look old fashioned.”
Yup, but few understand.
By and larges, to charge them takes fossil fuels. The left thinks electricity just appears out of nothing.
What I have never seen is an electric car on a used car lot. When that starts happening, we shall see how enamored people are with them. Any battery...and I mean ANY battery...has reduced performance over time. Resale value could be an issue.
I still think a perfectly tuned diesel/electric hybrid would present the best overall mileage, and maintain a significant towing capacity. Like a freight train. Diesel generator runs at its optimum rpm range, providing electricity to motor that provide 100% torque to the wheels at all rpms. No recharging, just fill the tank.
after posting I started to consider APU as found on longhair trucks and class B campers- couple with electric motor- possibilities- but straight EV I do not see it - on long distances
120VAC (standard wiring in a home) will not work. And residential zoning will not allow a high voltage system for a short charge time.
I have a solution here — a removable battery pack. At the “gas station” you pull up and swap out the pre-charged pack in five minutes. The “gas station” will use KVolts to charge the battery packs.
Then there is the issue of the power distribution and production systems. Wholly inadequate and anemic at best for current demand. Incapable of supporting electric cars.
Lastly, the fools are destroying all reasonable sources for power production to support the increase demand — nose to spite their face.
And reduced performance over temp extremes.
I wonder how green its going to be when those batteries all have to be either disposed of or recycled.
You want to talk ecological disaster?
The people running things are demons. Full stop.
Demons hate people, because God created people.
Seems like a good combination. Too bad there aren’t more hybrid diesels. Maybe because of the stigma of diesels smoking and polluting. Diesel engines are heavier but they are more efficient, too.
Excellent point. Maybe they can reclaim them somehow? I wouldn’t that that job, though.
And a battery can mean many things and not necessary the current chemical based solution.
Who knows, but you bring up good points.
Something must’ve been wrong with the Prius you rented. I have a 2006 & 2016 Prius, and both accelerate just fine. As good as my old Taurus and newer mini-Cooper (non turbo). They’re pretty similar to most cars that get reasonable mileage, especially the newer one. I had the older one in LA traffic all the time with no problems.
LOL, unless you normally drive a V8 ;)
I only bought them because I like the gas mileage and got great deals on both. They are bigger than the Corolla too. I think-the older one, because I think they now make Corollas the same size as Camry. If one had to pay close to MSRP, they wouldn’t be worth the cost, even if gas was $3/gallon. When gas hits $4, you ‘might’ see a little cost savings at 100,000 miles. (I have spreadsheets, lol!)
With the electric cars, you’ll never see any cost savings. Those babies are pricey! And electric rates, even here in Tennessee, don’t make it worth it even if gas went to $5/gallon. In places like California, with progressive electric rates and these cars pushing you into those higher brackets, you’ll be paying big. Unless you have an ugly solar plant in your roof. But those only are cost-effective in the SW, so that limits who might benefit financially from an EV.
But the limitations of how far you can drive without recharging don’t make it worthwhile anyway, IMO.
An electric car was driving around in this episode of Perry Mason.
http://www.perrymasontvseries.com/wiki/index.php/EpisodePages/Show149
We have a car which allows us to travel 400+ miles before refueling. The cost equivalent per gallon is about seventy five cents per gallon for her car. I'm about economics, the car was 35,000 new, I got it for 10,500 out the door with 14,200 miles.
(yeah, it ws 3 years old) I really don't care about the enviormental aspects, let the bureaucrats figure it out.
My wife loves her electric car, very practical for her. Her commute to work is two miles, such a short drive is bad for a gasoline powered car. We bought it used, it had 14,100 miles. 3 years old and paid less than 1/3 of the original price. Electric cars resale is horrible.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.