Back From Kiev in 2014, Mike Pompeo Said: Putin Wants to 'Control Ukraine'

For Russians, Ukraine and Belarus (BiałoRussia) are, in their Russian minds, "part of us" -- Western Ukrainians and Belarussians disagree

All three nations are from the same parent - Kievan Rus, which was destroyed by the Mongols in the 13th century.

Muscowy arose as really a successor to the Mongols - defeating them with their own tactics and then absorbing them. The Grand Dukes of Muscowy took on both the trappings of Caesar (as the "Third Rome") and of the Great Khan.

Bialorus was early on conquered by the Lithuanians, but as the Lits were small in number, the Belarussians with their dialect and their Kievan Rus style of localised governments dominated and defined the culture until the 1600s. In 1400 Belarussia-Lithuania joined with Poland in the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth. After 1600 the Belarussians and Lithuanians increasingly got Polonized (as polish language and culture had developed far far ahead by that time). After the partitions of Poland, Belarus fell under Russia and its nascent culture was strangled. Then it was shot under the Soviets. Today most speak Russian BUT they do not feel Russian (just like the Irish or the Scottish do not feel English) - and their culture is surprisingly resilient. They will not easily succumb to Russian rule

The Ukrainians are the remnants of Kievan Rus, but really they are of people re-populating the land after the ravages of the Mongols and then the Turkic Tatars. As recently as the early 1900s their identity was "we are from here", not particularly "Ukrainian". And then under the Soviets intense Russification happened.

Today I would say that the Donbas region would go to Russia by choice. Adn the Western Ukrainian region is scary in their xenophobia.

I believe that ~~Putin~~ Russia would:

deeply want the Donbas region
Want the rest of the Black sea coast
NOT want Moldova - with its Romanian majority it is more a headache, but perhaps Transdniestra.
NOT want Belarus - better to keep a buffer against the Poles and as long as the Belarussians don't join the EU or NATO, its fine
Not want the Baltics - too much trouble
wait for NATO to kick out Turkey and then grab the Dardanelles

I believe that Putin already has what he wanted in the Ukraine:

A state that is not part of the EU or NATO
A state in chaos and no threat to him
No "shining example" of a non-mafia East Slavic state to inspire Russians
Crimea and Sevastopol
Potentially the Donbas region

He won in the Ukraine -- look at how Sakaashvili was exiled recently

With the Middle East, Putin's game is multi-fold:

play to the public at home that Russia is a great power and can decide things with its power -- and this has proven TRUE. the Russians changed the entire scenario in the Syria region
Ensure that one of his allies stays in power
Show the rest of the world and to Russia's allies that "if you do good by Russia, Russia stands by you. in contrast don't trust the Amerikanie - they will dump you tomorrow" -- very effective
Kill Sunnijihadis -- these are a threat to Russia as well with its large Sunni Tartar groups -- note that the Tatars are pro-Russia and actively despise Wahabbis. Ditto for the Russian hinterland in Central Asia -- Tajikistan et al all fight with Wahabbiism
Play all sides:
- russia is a friend of Assad
- it allies with Iran
- it supports the Kurds
- It has a tacit agreement with the Turks
- It is a friend of Israel - remember that the Russians moved their embassy to Jerusalem in April 2017, well before the USA. Putin and Netanyahu have a good relationship as well
- And now even feelers to MBS in Riyadh
Russia's ultimate goal remains what it has been since 1453 - conquering Constaninople -- remember that even avowedly anti-Christian Tukachewsky wanted to conquer Constantinople -- it is so ingrained in Russian psyche that it can't be removed

If we were to measure things by the short term, then yes Russia’s plans are working.

But in the LONG term. No. Russia’s gambles will unravel and prove to be misfires and miscalculations.

Even in the present for example, I would give Ukraine more credit overall. NOT to Poroshenko or his government of course...I mean the people at large.

There is a palpable spiritual resistance from the people which has definitely come across and been felt by Russians. I am not referring to the Donbass-extremists on one end or hyper-nationalists on the other...but the majority of Ukrainians who fall in between.

Something irreversible has been awakened in Ukraine but it won’t reflect politically just yet...not overnight.

And Russian people in turn are suppressing/denying guilt over their complictiness in igniting conflict with Ukraine. The denial can only go for so long...

I also think the West is more resilient and its leaders have a new spring in their step: from Trump to May to Macron. This is good.

And its good that Trump declared Jerusalem to be Israel’s capital. Jerusalem is the center and Constantinople falls into place from there. Spiritual geo-politics 101.

I don't agree with your evaluation that the Russian gambles in the Ukraine are unravelling. Rather it seems to be going very well for them -- Poroshenko is proving corrupt as well (not as bad as his predecessor but not good enough to make any real change) -- look at his exiling of Sakaashvilli

About the resistance from Ukrainians -- I wouldn't call it spiritual -- there is resistance yes, and they feel alienated from Russia

BUT this is mostly in the Western part and they are also following tactics that not only alienate the eastern Ukrainians but also worry and scare Poland, Hungary and Romania, net-net they are antagonizing everyone (just like the UPA in WWII)

What has been awakened in Ukraine are Banderistas, not a healthy nationalism and not a move to clean up their country.

The Russian people are HAPPY about their moves in eastern Ukraine -- they see it as holding off western encroachments

to Trump, May and Macron:

Trump isn't bothered with the Ukraine. Quite rightly he looks to see if the US gets anything out of it and the answer is no, so he doesn't care
May is a flop at home with no ability to project power across the English channel, leave alone to Russia
Macron is ok, but focused on events at home and West Africa and the EU. No great move against Russia.
The West is content enough to let Russia do what it likes as long as it leave the EU lands alone. Poland doesn't like that and neither does the Baltics, as we have little to no strategic depth and have little faith in the West to protect us

Hi Cronos!

Mainland Ukrainians - especially those of the Orthodox variety and inclined towards Russia’s orbit - understand how to distinguish between “real Russia” and the Putin State. Especially post-Crimea.

The current regime in Russia is more “Bolshevik” in nature than “Russian.” — so until Russia can forge a State fully de-coupled from its Bolshevik roots and Stalinist legacy: the Russia-inclined Ukrainians remain steadfast in their resistance and separation.

And perhaps this is the journey of realization the West is on as well as the true nature of the Putin State continues to unravel. If one truly loves historic Russia, then one must reject Putinism. Many Russians still haven’t gotten the memo. Hence the spiritual schizophrenia: attempting to reconcile the external trappings of Orthodoxy with their Soviet sympathies and passions.

Blessings! :)

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.