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Infectious disease modeling study casts doubt on impact of Justinianic plague
EurekAlert! ^ | May 1, 2020 | University of Maryland

Posted on 05/04/2020 7:12:49 PM PDT by SunkenCiv

Many have claimed the Justinianic Plague (c. 541-750 CE) killed half of the population of Roman Empire. Now, historical research and mathematical modeling challenge the death rate and severity of this first plague pandemic...

White and Mordechai focused their efforts on the city of Constantinople, capital of the Roman Empire, which had a comparatively well-described outbreak in 542 CE. Some primary sources claim plague killed up to 300,000 people in the city, which had a population of some 500,000 people at the time. Other sources suggest the plague killed half the empire's population. Until recently, many scholars accepted this image of mass death. By comparing bubonic, pneumonic, and combined transmission routes, the authors showed that no single transmission route precisely mimicked the outbreak dynamics described in these primary sources.

(Excerpt) Read more at eurekalert.org ...


TOPICS: History; Science; Travel
KEYWORDS: byzantineempire; epidemics; godsgravesglyphs; justinian; justinianplague; justiniansplague; pandemics; plagues; romanempire; thesniffles


1 posted on 05/04/2020 7:12:49 PM PDT by SunkenCiv
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Justinian's Flea: The First Great Plague and the End of the Roman Empire
Justinian's Flea:
The First Great Plague and the End of the Roman Empire

by William Rosen
Kindle edition
website FAQ


2 posted on 05/04/2020 7:13:23 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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To: StayAt HomeMother; Ernest_at_the_Beach; 1ofmanyfree; 21twelve; 24Karet; 2ndDivisionVet; 31R1O; ...

3 posted on 05/04/2020 7:13:55 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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To: SunkenCiv

Can’t question the models.

As we know from recent and current events, models are never wrong.


4 posted on 05/04/2020 7:16:00 PM PDT by Grimmy (equivocation is but the first step along the road to capitulation)
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To: SunkenCiv

The Romans would have managed it better if only they would have had celebrities sing “Imagine” to the plebeians from their posh villas.


5 posted on 05/04/2020 7:17:53 PM PDT by LouieFisk
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6 posted on 05/04/2020 7:21:18 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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To: SunkenCiv

Chris Murray was the head of the Institutum Enim et Metrics Salutem Volutpat in Rome. His model at the time was very accurate and should not be doubted.


7 posted on 05/04/2020 7:21:44 PM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom
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To: SunkenCiv

Fauci told the Romans to quarantine and it killed the empire.


8 posted on 05/04/2020 7:26:20 PM PDT by nwrep
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Plague of Justinian, sorted:

9 posted on 05/04/2020 7:35:11 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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To: SunkenCiv
Remember what Nobel Prize winning Theoretical Physicist Dick Feynman said:

"It doesn't matter how beautiful your experimental data is, it doesn't matter if you are an eyewitness. If it doesn't agree with the model, it's wrong."

10 posted on 05/04/2020 7:42:10 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
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To: grey_whiskers
Ernest Lawrence, a pure experimentalist... said, "Don't you worry about it -- the theorists will find a way to make them all the same." -- Alvarez by Luis Alvarez (page 184)

11 posted on 05/04/2020 7:48:07 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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To: LouieFisk

LOL


12 posted on 05/04/2020 7:48:39 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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To: SunkenCiv

Question: Are all odd numbers prime?

Biologist: Yes. All odd numbers are prime.
Mathematician: 1 is prime, 3 is prime, 5 is prime, 7 is prime, so yes, by mathematical induction, all odd numbers are prime.
Experimental Physicist: 1 is prime, 3 is prime, 5 is prime, 7 is prime, 9 is not prime, 11 is prime, 13 is prime, so, within experimental error, all odd numbers are prime.
Engineer: 1 is prime, 3 is prime, 5 is prime, 7 is prime, 9 is prime, 11 is prime, 13 is prime, 15 is prime, 17 is prime, 19 is prime, yes, all odd numbers are prime.
Womyn’s Studies Major: Did you just assume its cardinality?


13 posted on 05/04/2020 7:52:38 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
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To: grey_whiskers

:^) Not to quibble, but 9 and 15 are not prime.


14 posted on 05/04/2020 7:57:40 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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To: SunkenCiv

Bump

Great topic


15 posted on 05/04/2020 8:38:21 PM PDT by silverleaf (President Trump: Do not trust China. China is asshoe!)
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To: SunkenCiv

Bump

Great topic


16 posted on 05/04/2020 8:39:44 PM PDT by silverleaf (President Trump: Do not trust China. China is asshoe!)
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To: nwrep

You mean Fauci Gluteus Maximus, the infamous soothsayer from Alexandria?


17 posted on 05/04/2020 10:53:56 PM PDT by SoCal Pubbie
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To: silverleaf
Thanks! My only reservation is their use of "Justinianic" -- sounds like a Disney Channel or Nick at Night version of a plague.

18 posted on 05/05/2020 6:23:38 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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