Skip to comments.Infectious disease modeling study casts doubt on impact of Justinianic plague
Posted on 05/04/2020 7:12:49 PM PDT by SunkenCiv
Many have claimed the Justinianic Plague (c. 541-750 CE) killed half of the population of Roman Empire. Now, historical research and mathematical modeling challenge the death rate and severity of this first plague pandemic...
White and Mordechai focused their efforts on the city of Constantinople, capital of the Roman Empire, which had a comparatively well-described outbreak in 542 CE. Some primary sources claim plague killed up to 300,000 people in the city, which had a population of some 500,000 people at the time. Other sources suggest the plague killed half the empire's population. Until recently, many scholars accepted this image of mass death. By comparing bubonic, pneumonic, and combined transmission routes, the authors showed that no single transmission route precisely mimicked the outbreak dynamics described in these primary sources.
(Excerpt) Read more at eurekalert.org ...
Can’t question the models.
As we know from recent and current events, models are never wrong.
The Romans would have managed it better if only they would have had celebrities sing “Imagine” to the plebeians from their posh villas.
Chris Murray was the head of the Institutum Enim et Metrics Salutem Volutpat in Rome. His model at the time was very accurate and should not be doubted.
Fauci told the Romans to quarantine and it killed the empire.
Plague of Justinian, sorted:
"It doesn't matter how beautiful your experimental data is, it doesn't matter if you are an eyewitness. If it doesn't agree with the model, it's wrong."
Ernest Lawrence, a pure experimentalist... said, "Don't you worry about it -- the theorists will find a way to make them all the same." -- Alvarez by Luis Alvarez (page 184)
Question: Are all odd numbers prime?
Biologist: Yes. All odd numbers are prime.
Mathematician: 1 is prime, 3 is prime, 5 is prime, 7 is prime, so yes, by mathematical induction, all odd numbers are prime.
Experimental Physicist: 1 is prime, 3 is prime, 5 is prime, 7 is prime, 9 is not prime, 11 is prime, 13 is prime, so, within experimental error, all odd numbers are prime.
Engineer: 1 is prime, 3 is prime, 5 is prime, 7 is prime, 9 is prime, 11 is prime, 13 is prime, 15 is prime, 17 is prime, 19 is prime, yes, all odd numbers are prime.
Womyn’s Studies Major: Did you just assume its cardinality?
:^) Not to quibble, but 9 and 15 are not prime.
You mean Fauci Gluteus Maximus, the infamous soothsayer from Alexandria?
Thanks! My only reservation is their use of "Justinianic" -- sounds like a Disney Channel or Nick at Night version of a plague.
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