Skip to comments.New poll on Foley's seat - Florida's 16th Congressional District (Dems lead by 7)
Posted on 10/02/2006 6:17:03 PM PDT by okstate
Majority Watch asked the question in two different ways. The first link is a sample of 1001 likely voters who were asked simply if they would vote for Foley, the Republican, or Mahoney, the Democrat. Among likely voters there Mahoney led by 7 points, 50-43. Among certain voters (795), Mahoney led by 10 points, 52-42. This question reflects how the ballot will look.
The second poll was taken of 1003 likely voters. Among them Mahoney led by only 3 points over Foley. Among certain voters (813 total), Mahoney led by one. The question asked in this poll was:
"I would like you to think about the race for Congress. Republican Mark Foley resigned on Friday as the result of a scandal involving a House page. Votes for Foley will count as votes for a new Republican nominee to be determined next week. Knowing this, if the election were today, who would you vote for? Republican Mark Foley? Or Democrat Tim Mahoney?
Interesting results, and impressive that they did two separate polls with such large sample sizes.
Interesting poll on FL-16 in the wake of the Foley scandal. Newcomer Constituent Dynamics is there with the first poll, two of them actually.
This is a very informative pair of polls, and indicates that the race will be competitive.
The new GOP candidate in that district is Joe Negron.
Is this a heavily dem district or a republican district?
Well that poll is a tad of good news
It's a moderately Republican district, and it will be a banner year for Republicans in the state. The Republican replacement candidate will have a lot going for him.
Yea, these were conducted before that was known.
I think the wording is selected to bias the poll to the Dim. I would make more sense to ask:
"...who would you vote for? A yet to be named Republican? Or Democrat Tim Mahoney?"
And besides, the GOP candidate (now Negron) performed better in that question than in the official first poll.
Watch for reports that George Allen drops the last n.
This was taken before or after? It seems kind of soon to have a poll out.
Tim Mahoney polled 7 points ahead of a can of re-heated creamed spinach...
Chris Matthews with lead with Allen dropping the last n on tomorrow's show.
Samantha is a resident of that district. According to her it is heavily Republican and she is confident Negron will be elected over the Dem.
This poll seems to support that. Someone needs to clue in the DBM. All the talking heads have put this in the win column for Dems.
If I were a voter in that district it would make me sick to my stomach to pull the lever for "Foley".
No one should mistake how abhorrent a task they are asking voters to commit, even if Foley won't be the one that holds the seat.
Is the seat lost? It really depends on the new candidate and his ability to ease folks over their distaste of Foley. If he can do that, he deserves some credit. Certainly they may not want the Democrat's politics, but neither do they like the idea of on election night being labled the district that voted for a pedophile..if only in name only.
I'm sympathetic to the strain being placed on these voters. It's not right they are in this position.
I live in the district and in the last several elections I cold never vote for foley, because he is pro-choice. This time I will have no problem voting for Foley because I am well aware I am voting for Negron.
both polls show more repubs than rats
and a spitload of independants.
not sure what the results mean, if anything
Agree, it is a good sign.
What do you mean?
--Watch for reports that George Allen drops the last n--
He will be known as "George Alle", then ;-)
Maybe we should require male Republican office seekers to be witnessed having sex with a woman to prove they aren't gay. lol
--Maybe we should require male Republican office seekers to be witnessed having sex with a woman to prove they aren't gay. lol--
Then the Maim Scream Media would just call them sex-crazed exhibitionists, and treat them like Jack Ryan...
A "poll" for his seat...huh uh uh
New pole on Foley's seat? Yeah, he wishes!
You were posting while I was typing. . . .
I hope the word gets out. The Republicans can't let the Dems get away with waiting until right before election time to play the Foley card.
Will the unexpired term be filled (a) at all? (b) by the same election (as a different race of course)?
Encouraging - it would be interesting to see new polling data now that there is a named candidate - the seat might not be lost after all......
I'm not familiar with Florida law, but I'd guess that there's not enough time remaining in Foley's term for a special election.
This is remarkable that the Democrat is only ahead by 7 against an unknown candidate. It doesn't sound very good for the Democrat.
This is the best news I've seen yet. A Seven point lead from this is nothing. This was BEFORE people have had a chance to see who Negron is outside of his immediate area. And they also will lie on a poll like this. If we are only down 7 on paper what is the real number?
A smart campaign will find a way to turn this scandal around in favor of the 'Pub candidate. How? Simply contrast the difference between how Republicans deal with their wrongdoers and how the 'Rats deal with theirs. For example, Foley resigned right away and went into rehab. The 'Rats, OTOH, had a scumball like Jim McGreevey in the Governor's chair in NJ for years and while he did resign, afterward he wrote an unapologetic book about his foibles and then went on Oprah to push it. The 'Rats defended Clinton's wrongdoings right into the well of the US Senate, and never apologized for defending a known liar and probable rapist. You had scumbags like Gerry Studds and Barney Frank involved in homosexual affairs, abusing Congressional pages, and allowing homosexual prostitution rings to be run out of their DC home, and nobody ever demanded a thing from those miscreants.
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