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New poll on Foley's seat - Florida's 16th Congressional District (Dems lead by 7)
Constituent Dynamics ^ | 2 October 2006 | Constituent Dynamics

Posted on 10/02/2006 6:17:03 PM PDT by okstate

http://constituentdynamics.com/mw/2006/pdf/FL16.pdf

http://constituentdynamics.com/mw/2006/pdf/FL16b.pdf

Majority Watch asked the question in two different ways. The first link is a sample of 1001 likely voters who were asked simply if they would vote for Foley, the Republican, or Mahoney, the Democrat. Among likely voters there Mahoney led by 7 points, 50-43. Among certain voters (795), Mahoney led by 10 points, 52-42. This question reflects how the ballot will look.

The second poll was taken of 1003 likely voters. Among them Mahoney led by only 3 points over Foley. Among certain voters (813 total), Mahoney led by one. The question asked in this poll was:

"I would like you to think about the race for Congress. Republican Mark Foley resigned on Friday as the result of a scandal involving a House page. Votes for Foley will count as votes for a new Republican nominee to be determined next week. Knowing this, if the election were today, who would you vote for? Republican Mark Foley? Or Democrat Tim Mahoney?

Interesting results, and impressive that they did two separate polls with such large sample sizes.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: 2006; 2006polls; florida; foley; joenegron; mahoney; majoritywatch; negron; poll; polls
Since the second question is "experimental," the first poll is going to be released as their "official" result.
1 posted on 10/02/2006 6:17:04 PM PDT by okstate
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To: Clintonfatigued; AntiGuv; Torie

Interesting poll on FL-16 in the wake of the Foley scandal. Newcomer Constituent Dynamics is there with the first poll, two of them actually.


2 posted on 10/02/2006 6:18:51 PM PDT by okstate
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To: okstate

This is a very informative pair of polls, and indicates that the race will be competitive.


3 posted on 10/02/2006 6:18:57 PM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: okstate
I am surprised the Republican candidate is that close, especially since they don't know who it is as of the asking of the question. IMO it's a good sign
4 posted on 10/02/2006 6:19:46 PM PDT by gidget7 (Political Correctness is Marxism with a nose job)
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To: okstate

The new GOP candidate in that district is Joe Negron.


5 posted on 10/02/2006 6:20:08 PM PDT by Dane ("Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" Ronald Reagan, 1987)
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To: okstate

Is this a heavily dem district or a republican district?


6 posted on 10/02/2006 6:20:22 PM PDT by FlipWilson
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To: okstate

Well that poll is a tad of good news


7 posted on 10/02/2006 6:21:40 PM PDT by catholicfreeper (Geaux Tigers SEC FOOTBALL ROCKS)
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To: FlipWilson

Republican.


8 posted on 10/02/2006 6:21:44 PM PDT by mathprof
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To: FlipWilson

It's a moderately Republican district, and it will be a banner year for Republicans in the state. The Republican replacement candidate will have a lot going for him.


9 posted on 10/02/2006 6:21:55 PM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: Dane

Yea, these were conducted before that was known.


10 posted on 10/02/2006 6:23:05 PM PDT by okstate
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To: okstate
Votes for Foley will count as votes for a new Republican nominee to be determined next week. Knowing this, if the election were today, who would you vote for? Republican Mark Foley? Or Democrat Tim Mahoney?

I think the wording is selected to bias the poll to the Dim. I would make more sense to ask:

"...who would you vote for? A yet to be named Republican? Or Democrat Tim Mahoney?"

11 posted on 10/02/2006 6:24:29 PM PDT by Onelifetogive (* Sarcasm tag ALWAYS required. For some Freepers, sarcasm can NEVER be obvious enough.)
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To: Onelifetogive
No, not at all. Because on the ballot they'll be checking the box next to Foley's name.

And besides, the GOP candidate (now Negron) performed better in that question than in the official first poll.

12 posted on 10/02/2006 6:26:18 PM PDT by okstate
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To: Dane

Watch for reports that George Allen drops the last n.


13 posted on 10/02/2006 6:26:19 PM PDT by billhilly
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To: okstate

This was taken before or after? It seems kind of soon to have a poll out.


14 posted on 10/02/2006 6:27:06 PM PDT by aft_lizard (born conservative...I chose to be a republican)
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To: aft_lizard

After.


15 posted on 10/02/2006 6:28:06 PM PDT by okstate
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To: Onelifetogive

Tim Mahoney polled 7 points ahead of a can of re-heated creamed spinach...


16 posted on 10/02/2006 6:29:47 PM PDT by Blogatron (- Automated Freeping Device. "Resistance IS useless.")
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To: billhilly

Chris Matthews with lead with Allen dropping the last n on tomorrow's show.


17 posted on 10/02/2006 6:29:47 PM PDT by Shocked2
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To: FlipWilson; samantha

Samantha is a resident of that district. According to her it is heavily Republican and she is confident Negron will be elected over the Dem.

This poll seems to support that. Someone needs to clue in the DBM. All the talking heads have put this in the win column for Dems.


18 posted on 10/02/2006 6:30:54 PM PDT by A.Hun (Common sense is no longer common.)
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To: okstate

If I were a voter in that district it would make me sick to my stomach to pull the lever for "Foley".

No one should mistake how abhorrent a task they are asking voters to commit, even if Foley won't be the one that holds the seat.

Is the seat lost? It really depends on the new candidate and his ability to ease folks over their distaste of Foley. If he can do that, he deserves some credit. Certainly they may not want the Democrat's politics, but neither do they like the idea of on election night being labled the district that voted for a pedophile..if only in name only.

I'm sympathetic to the strain being placed on these voters. It's not right they are in this position.


19 posted on 10/02/2006 6:32:00 PM PDT by Soul Seeker (Kobach: Amnesty is going from an illegal to a legal position, without imposing the original penalty.)
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To: Soul Seeker

I live in the district and in the last several elections I cold never vote for foley, because he is pro-choice. This time I will have no problem voting for Foley because I am well aware I am voting for Negron.


20 posted on 10/02/2006 6:42:21 PM PDT by jmj3jude
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To: okstate

both polls show more repubs than rats
and a spitload of independants.

not sure what the results mean, if anything


21 posted on 10/02/2006 6:45:02 PM PDT by stylin19a ("Klaatu Barada Nikto")
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To: gidget7

Agree, it is a good sign.


22 posted on 10/02/2006 6:58:39 PM PDT by jveritas (Support The Commander in Chief in Times of War)
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To: jmj3jude
Excellent, please ask your friends and family to do the same. We need to fight very hard to keep our majority in the House or the alternative is ultra left wing traitors democrats in charge of the House and in this case you know the rest of the story.
23 posted on 10/02/2006 7:00:45 PM PDT by jveritas (Support The Commander in Chief in Times of War)
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To: Shocked2

What do you mean?


24 posted on 10/02/2006 7:02:28 PM PDT by jveritas (Support The Commander in Chief in Times of War)
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To: okstate
Negron should ask to debate Mahoney and if the democrat refuses the debate because he considers Negron not on the ballot, then Mahoney can kiss any chance to win goodbye, I hope this will happen, and happen soon.
25 posted on 10/02/2006 7:05:14 PM PDT by jveritas (Support The Commander in Chief in Times of War)
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To: jveritas
According to pollipundit, Mahoney use to be a republican and switch recentley. But he has a problem in his background, he use to run an investment firm and lost 750 million dollars of peoples money. I am sure people will remember that.
26 posted on 10/02/2006 7:13:06 PM PDT by jmj3jude
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To: billhilly

--Watch for reports that George Allen drops the last n--

He will be known as "George Alle", then ;-)


27 posted on 10/02/2006 7:26:42 PM PDT by rfp1234 (I've had it up to my keyster with these leaks!!! - - - Ronald Reagan)
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To: rfp1234

Maybe we should require male Republican office seekers to be witnessed having sex with a woman to prove they aren't gay. lol


28 posted on 10/02/2006 7:38:39 PM PDT by Democratshavenobrains
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To: Democratshavenobrains

--Maybe we should require male Republican office seekers to be witnessed having sex with a woman to prove they aren't gay. lol--

Then the Maim Scream Media would just call them sex-crazed exhibitionists, and treat them like Jack Ryan...


29 posted on 10/02/2006 7:48:12 PM PDT by rfp1234 (I've had it up to my keyster with these leaks!!! - - - Ronald Reagan)
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To: okstate

A "poll" for his seat...huh uh uh


30 posted on 10/02/2006 7:49:06 PM PDT by CharentonChina
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To: okstate
New poll on Foley's seat

New pole on Foley's seat? Yeah, he wishes!

31 posted on 10/02/2006 7:51:24 PM PDT by Charles Henrickson (That'll leave a Mark.)
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To: CharentonChina

You were posting while I was typing. . . .


32 posted on 10/02/2006 7:52:21 PM PDT by Charles Henrickson (Beat me to it.)
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To: jmj3jude

I hope the word gets out. The Republicans can't let the Dems get away with waiting until right before election time to play the Foley card.


33 posted on 10/02/2006 8:08:20 PM PDT by Quicksilver
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To: Quicksilver

Will the unexpired term be filled (a) at all? (b) by the same election (as a different race of course)?


34 posted on 10/02/2006 8:32:13 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: okstate

Encouraging - it would be interesting to see new polling data now that there is a named candidate - the seat might not be lost after all......


35 posted on 10/02/2006 8:57:46 PM PDT by Intolerant in NJ
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To: scrabblehack

I'm not familiar with Florida law, but I'd guess that there's not enough time remaining in Foley's term for a special election.


36 posted on 10/02/2006 10:21:54 PM PDT by Quicksilver
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To: okstate

This is remarkable that the Democrat is only ahead by 7 against an unknown candidate. It doesn't sound very good for the Democrat.


37 posted on 10/02/2006 10:25:00 PM PDT by Eva
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To: okstate

This is the best news I've seen yet. A Seven point lead from this is nothing. This was BEFORE people have had a chance to see who Negron is outside of his immediate area. And they also will lie on a poll like this. If we are only down 7 on paper what is the real number?


38 posted on 10/03/2006 6:30:20 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (DON'T BELIEVE PESSIMISM: FEELINGS ARE FOR LOVE SONGS. FACTS ARE FOR PREDICTING WHO WINS IN NOV)
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To: okstate

A smart campaign will find a way to turn this scandal around in favor of the 'Pub candidate. How? Simply contrast the difference between how Republicans deal with their wrongdoers and how the 'Rats deal with theirs. For example, Foley resigned right away and went into rehab. The 'Rats, OTOH, had a scumball like Jim McGreevey in the Governor's chair in NJ for years and while he did resign, afterward he wrote an unapologetic book about his foibles and then went on Oprah to push it. The 'Rats defended Clinton's wrongdoings right into the well of the US Senate, and never apologized for defending a known liar and probable rapist. You had scumbags like Gerry Studds and Barney Frank involved in homosexual affairs, abusing Congressional pages, and allowing homosexual prostitution rings to be run out of their DC home, and nobody ever demanded a thing from those miscreants.


39 posted on 10/03/2006 6:39:55 AM PDT by chimera
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