Skip to comments.Does the GOP's Demographic Death Spiral End in a Texas Graveyard?
Posted on 05/27/2012 8:10:04 AM PDT by Road Glide
If Democratic voters were rapidly increasing in number and Republican voters rapidly decreasing, it should be pretty big news, shouldnt it?
Not when at issue is a third rail of American social commentary: race.
Recently I wrote a piece on race and voting patterns, using as a lede the story about how white births now account for less than 50 percent of the U.S. total for the first time in history. And while most respondents agreed with my analysis, some reacted predictably: Uncomfortable even hearing about race and/or frightened by what lies ahead, they rationalized away obvious facts.
And here is one: You cannot understand where our nation is headed ideologically without grasping the link between racial identification and voting patterns and demographic changes that will yield Democratic hegemony.
Republicans derive 90 percent of their presidential-election vote from whites. Democrats win the non-white vote by, on average, more than 70 percent.
Here is another what: One of these constituencies is shrinking, and the other is growing rapidly.
So consider the two major parties electoral starting point. Every election now, Republicans have to spot the Democrats Calif. and N.Y. and their combined 84 electoral votes. Adding the votes of reliably Democrat Mass., Hawaii, Vt. and D.C. and we can include Ill. in there now brings the total to 125. And Im being generous: A few more states probably belong in that guaranteed-Dem. column.
Yet it gets worse. If you look at the electoral map, states reliably or likely for Mitt Romney account for only 170 electoral votes while states reliably or likely for Barack Obama account for 243.
Only 270 are needed to win...
(Excerpt) Read more at thenewamerican.com ...
A very touchy subject, but one that must be understood and dealt with. Otherwise, the presidency may in time be "snatched from the hands of Republicans" and become nearly-impossible to regain...
Maybe it would help if the GOP stopped accepting the racial lines that Dems have created and start speaking to people as individuals then the demographic issue would be moot. It is a cycle, the left paints everyone in a little box to make each group feel a victim of the other group so the dems can ride in and save the day.
The right has been playing along, speaking to boxes.
Maybe if we start saying you are not a slave to the labeled box that you have been categorized in but you are a free individual, we can take this off the table.
To bad they can only vote to free themselves of civilization.
Similar fears were expressed when immigrants from Eastern adn Souther Europe came to the U.S. Conservatives adapted and can do so again.
This is exactly what will happen as the years advance. What we as civilized citizens must do is to devise a way to save civilization and allow them to return, alone, to savagery.
What a bunch of tripe. I can not believe you fall for this.
Have you ever heard of the Roe Effect. Did you see the MSMediots make a big deal about it? It does not bode well for the future of the Dims.
Additionally, anyone who believes Obama has 243 reliable EVs is going to have some splaining to do when gets less than 243 EVs in December.
For the gopE, it's all about the "E" and to hell with the "gop", so why vote for more bad management?
Better idea: Fire them and reorganize per the original business model!
I think that none of this is engraved in stone.
Republicans have to make the case to various minority groups, that conservative values are their values too.
Making the case for conservative values will need to happen far beyond this year’s election cycle.
A lot depends on other factors outside of politics though. There’s anecdotal evidence that many areas of America, even some formerly nice suburban areas around major cities, are going ghetto. If increasing numbers of people, regardless of ethnicity, have ghetto values, that will be bad news for traditional values and politically, bad news for Republicans.
Republicans also have to make known that they are really not the party of older whites. That’s a cruel stereotype which liberals like to repeat.
Off the top of my head, I can think of a number of major elected officials who are Republicans and minorities: Susana Martinez, governor of New Mexico, Brian Sandoval, governor of Nevada, Bobby Jindal, governor of Louisiana, Nikki Haley, governor of South Carolina, Alan West, congressman from Floria, Tim Scott, congressman from South Carolina, and Marco Rubio, Senator from Florida.
Republicans stand for a set of principles and values which cut across racial or ethnic lines. All are welcome in the Republican party. That has to be repeated far and wide.
Not going to happen. Way too many (not all) blacks and Hispanics want their handouts and the Dems will always offer it to them, regardless if they actually get it or not.
It frustrates me that Reagan, Bush I and II did nothing to stop illegal immigration. Call me pessimistic about the GOP's chances in the future if demography is destiny. Did the GOP back then underestimate the numbers of illegals that would come? I know that the GOP gets support from big business and big business loves cheap labor, but I find it hard to believe that not doing anything to stop illegal immigration would benefit the GOP if demographic trends continue.
I guess they really wanted to not offend Hispanics as they tried to win their vote. How has that worked so far...? Yeah...that's what I thought.
Meanwhile, we have people on this website proclaiming that the majority of this country is conservative and that the future belongs to the GOP, if only we’d run more people like Christine O’Donnell and Sharron Angle, as long as the GOP establishment supports them. I think the reality is that the Federal government has imported enough legal immigrants and instituted enough entitlements and race preference programs that the Democratic party has a virtual lock on the presidency and an increasing hold on the Federal legislature. To salt the wound, it was Nixon who actually instituted Hispanic preferences, thereby slicing off a huge chunk of what might have become white voters, and created an Asian category that covered Indians instead of automatically considering them white. Instead of assimilation, the GOP has been engaged in the politics of balkanization, which plays to Democratic strengths. At this stage, the GOP really needs to get its act together and start to paint the Democrats as the black party, much as the Democrats try to paint the GOP as the white party.
I agree. And the labels will eventually implode upon themselves because there is a race group, a sex group, an issues group, a religious group, etc. and at some point one will find themselves in two groups which are at cross purposes and the “house divided” will kick in. People who find that their own job will be eliminated due to lawsuits, think twice and pay attention.
The Roe Effect isn't as strong as the War on Poverty effect (free food, housing and medical care for able-bodied pre-retirement indigent individuals). Roe merely gave intelligent women who were otherwise conscientious the ability to abort their babies on demand, thereby depriving us of the higher IQ and moderate Democrats. The War on Poverty effect gave us an explosion of new babies by the low IQ indigent (e.g. Octomom) for whom popping out babies is how they make a living. Bottom line is that welfare is giving us a more liberal and stupid (as in naturally unable to learn) population that used to be offset somewhat by unwanted babies from the smarter elements of society. If abortion had been legal when Steve Jobs was conceived by his two grad student parents, he would have been aborted. Bottom line is that both Roe and the War on Poverty have been a disaster for conservatives, Roe because it has deprived this country of an uncountable number of highly-productive people like Jobs.
Additionally, anyone who believes Obama has 243 reliable EVs is going to have some splaining to do when gets less than 243 EVs in December.
The current electorate was born at least 18 years ago, back when white births were the majority of all live births in the country. Thanks to birthright citizenship, 18 years from now, Democrats will have a lock on the presidency. And in a decade, it wouldn't surprise me if Texas became reliably Democratic. John Derbyshire was right. We are doomed...
Just like all the early 20th century Italian and other Roman Catholic immigration meant the death of the GOP as we all know Italians will vote Dim for ever.
You probably also agree with Al Gore that a 1 degree temperature this year implies that average temperatures will be 20 degrees higher in 20 years, right? Well I have news for you straight line extrapolation does not work well for predicting the future.
The GOP needs to attract more Hispanics. This is why either Marco Rubio or Susanna Martinez should be VP.
The difference is - in those days schools and society taught people how to be American. Today, the schools and other institutions are dominated by leftists who teach everyone that the USA is evil.
And it took a long time before ethnic groups voted Republican. A few years ago I read that it was only in the last election that a majority of Finn descended people voted Republican. They had moved here a century ago.
Similar fears were expressed when immigrants from Eastern and Southern Europe came to the U.S. Conservatives adapted and can do so again.
Why is it assumed that as the so called “White” majority is erased that these new citizens who went through the legal hurdles of naturalization and are working hard to raise families, live moral lives and achieve the American dream are so anxious to back a party that wants to erase the very dreams and beliefs that they hold dear?
If the GOP is really the party of only “WASPS” then it diserves that fate. A vowel on the end of a surname does not mean a Liberal vote.
Dream on. Immigration is having an enormous impact on electoral politics. For example, California will never vote GOP again and its 55 strong congressional delegation will become more Dem. NV, Colorado, NM, and AZ are or will turn purple and then blue. Here are some facts, not speculation about what is happening:
Here in VA, a state turning purple, immigration is playing a significant role. This year, Fairfax County, the largest in the state with over a million people, will have its Presidential ballot in both English and Spanish, a first. 28% of the county is foreign born.
November Election or November Revolution. There will be either or, nothing in between.
The U.S. adds one international migrant (net) every 36 seconds. Immigrants account for one in 8 U.S. residents, the highest level in more than 90 years. In 1970 it was one in 21; in 1980 it was one in 16; and in 1990 it was one in 13. In a decade, it will be one in 7, the highest it has been in our history. And by 2050, one in 5 residents of the U.S. will be foreign-born.
Currently, 1.6 million legal and illegal immigrants settle in the country each year; 350,000 immigrants leave each year, resulting in a net immigration of 1.25 million. Since 1970, the U.S. population has increased from 203 million to 310 million, i.e., over 100 million. In the next 40 years, the population will increase by an additional 130 million to 440 million. Three-quarters of the increase in our population since 1970 and the projected increase will be the result of immigration. The U.S., the worlds third most populous nation, has the highest annual rate of population growth of any developed country in the world, i.e., 0.963% (2011 estimate,) principally due to immigration.
The nations immigrant population (legal and illegal) reached 40 million in 2010, the highest number in our history. The U.S. immigrant population has doubled since 1990, nearly tripled since 1980, and quadrupled since 1970, when it stood at 9.7 million. Of the 40 million immigrants in the country in 2010, 13.9 million arrived in 2000 or later making it the highest decade of immigration in American history, even though there was a net loss of jobs during the decade. Growth in the immigrant population has primarily been driven by high levels of legal immigration. Roughly three-fourths of immigrants in the country are here legally. With nearly 12 million immigrants, Mexico was by far the top immigrant-sending country, accounting for 29 percent of all immigrants and 29 percent of growth in the immigrant population from 2000 to 2010.
87 percent of the 1.2 million legal immigrants entering annually are minorities as defined by the U.S. Government and almost all of the illegal aliens are minorities. By 2019 half of the children 18 and under in the U.S. will be classified as minorities and by 2042, half of the residents of this country will be minorities. Generally, immigrants and minorities vote predominantly for the Democrat Party. Hence, Democrats view immigration as a never-ending source of voters that will make them the permanent majority party.
Since the 1965 Immigration Act, our pro-population growth immigration policies have fueled major demographic changes in a very short period of time. In 1970, non-Hispanic whites comprised 89 percent of the population; today they are 66 percent; and by 2042, they will be 50 percent. The Democrats, under the banner of multiculturalism and diversity, have forged a political coalition that depends on individuals coalescing around racial and ethnic identities rather than the issues. The continuing and increasing flow of minority immigrants, mostly poor and uneducated, provides a natural constituency for the Democrats, which see them as their principal source of political power.
Thank you GW Bush for flooding my nation with millions upon millions of Democrat voting Hispanic illegals, there kids, an legal immigrants from every non-white nation on earth.
Baby Bush could not have done a better job depriving the growth of the Republican voter base if he tried, and to top it off, he vastly grew the Democrat party base. If I was a conspiracy nut, I would say he did it on purpose.
No, GW was just a new world order globalist hellbent on maximizing financial gain for his handlers and hid buddies.
I thought this was about dead people voting for RATS.
The Catholic vote has only gone republican about five times in our history.
Catholic immigration has always been an importation of the permanent left, and it is what we are still discussing now, as conservatives.
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