Posted on 09/17/2004 10:48:51 AM PDT by Mike10542
What is the deal. Now to go along with Pew and Harris, according to the guy at wwww.electoral-vote.com, AGR now has Kerry up 48-45 nationally. I realize that Gallup is the most credible out of the four, but still, 3 showing a tie and only one showing Bush up a lot, I'm getting a little worried the race is bacl to a dead heat.
Sorry, but not "bacl" to a dead heat, but "back" to a dead heat.
Who is AGR? What is their track record? I don't believe any of these polls, to be perfectly honest.
Who's AGR? Sounds like an agricultural PAC...
Its a good thing, we do not want to be up big time in these polls, we will get over-confident. On election day we will prevail, by a wide margin. the lefties will try to protray this as a close race...it ain't.
Don't Worry we are solidly in the lead! They are sewing the numbers over the weekend. It just will not work!
Note he has Bush up 307 EVs to Kerry's 211. Doesn't wash.
its called BIAS they are doing that to try and sway undecided voters, by fake polls... trust gallop they have been around forever
Right. They got Kerry leading by 4 and Bush winning the Electoral College by 96.
What about Zogby and Rassmussen? Or Strategic Vision? Haven't heard a thing from them!
Your link takes us to a site that shows Bush with 307 electoral votes, to 211 for Kerry. So where is this Kerry lead you mention?
What is AGR?
I know I'm biased, but I'm leaning toward the two-digit lead camp for Bush. I don't know a single Democrat who hasn't conceded this race. The turnout could end up being pretty weak for the Dems.
ARG - American Research Group.
The ones showing it close are NOT consistent with the state polling being done by a variety of polling organizations. There are either serious flaws with their methodologies or they are flat out manipulating the numbers.
From Polipundit today:
As the election campaigns approach the final month and a half (46 days left), we are seeing the evolutions of each campaign; the Nader campaign apparently headed for its predicted irrelevancy, the Bush campaign settling into its message, and the Kerry campaign reprising musical chairs. The polls are, however, suddenly unable to reach a concensus. Where before they generally agreed about the closeness of the race, or gave one candidate a lead, there is now a range from a one-point lead for Senator Kerry (Harris), to a thirteen-point lead for President Bush (Gallup). It seems to me wise, then, to sort through these releases and see what is making such a difference.
I looked at twelve polls for this review: Rasmussen, Pew, Harris, InvestorBusinessDaily/ChristianScienceMonitor, Democracy Corps, Zogby, Fox/OpinionDynamics, TIME, Newsweek, USAToday/CNN/Gallup, CBS News, and the stand-alone Gallup polls (I'll use abbreviations for the longer polls from here on in) . The first thing which jumped out at me is the details included in each poll. While I pay attention to all the poll results, I have to say, I consider it important for a poll to do more than release a headline without anything to support it. Accordingly, Rasmussen, Harris, IBD, Democracy Corps, Zogby, TIME, and USA/CNN/Gallup may be set apart from the rest, because they do not provide internals. The polls without Internals, on average, favor Bush 49.0-45.0 over Kerry, while the polls with Internals favor Bush 49.6-44.0 over Kerry.
Next, consider the breakdown of respondents. The Rasmussen, IBD, Democracy Corps, Zogby, and Fox polls show only a number for "likely" voters, with no breakdown for total respondents, registered voters, or anything to tell you how they determined a voter was "likely" to make the trip to the polls. The polls which do not show the breakdown of respondents, on average, favor Bush 47.8-45.2 over Kerry, while the polls which DO show the breakdown of respondents favor Bush 50.3-44.1 over Kerry, a VERY significant difference!
None of the polls gave me everything I wanted, but the Pew, Newsweek, and Gallup polls came close. And there is some very interesting data there to be had.
Pew shows Bush and Kerry essentially tied, while Newsweek shows Bush ahead by a nice margin, and Gallup shows Bush blowing Kerry away. The Internal data gives us a look at why each poll differs:
On average, Bush leads Kerry with Men, 51.8-41.0. Pew and Newsweek show 49-43 Bush, while Gallup shows 56-40 Bush, a substantial difference.
On average, Kerry leads Bush with Women, 46.3-45.8. Pew shows 48-43 Kerry, while Gallup shows 49-47 Bush, and Newsweek shows 49-43 Bush, a wide range between the polls.
On average, Kerry leads Bush with non-Whites, 64.7-27.0. Pew shows 70-18 Kerry, while Gallup shows 63-31 Kerry, and Newsweek shows 61-32 Kerry, once again a wide disparity between the polls.
These disparities are puzzling, given the similar methodologies for the polls. One clue might be, that the Newsweek poll was taken September 9-10, the Pew poll was taken September 11-14, and the Gallup poll was taken September 13-15. Even so, another possibility suggests itself to me. Nationwide polls sound to most people, as if they are taken with equal attention to each region of the country, but I wonder now if that is the case. Even though the polls are weighted in all three of these agencies, to match the 2000 demographics (48% male, 52% female, 81% white, 19% non-white, 39% Democrat, 35% Republican, 26% Independent) Differences in region could explain a lot. Everyone knows, for instance, that a Democrat in, say, Alabama, may well be more conservative than a Republican, say, in New York.
So, it is interesting to me that in the East, Pew shows 52-35 for Kerry, while Gallup shows 52-44 for Kerry, a nine-point difference (Newsweek did not release regional demographics or response). In the Midwest, Pew shows 48-43 for Bush, while Gallup shows 51-43 for Bush, a three-point difference. In the South, Pew shows 52-40 for Bush, while Gallup shows 60-37 for Bush, an eleven-point difference. And in the West, Pew shows 51-43 for Kerry, while Gallup shows 49-48 for Bush, a nine-point difference.
The reader will believe as he chooses, of course. All in all, however, there are a few reminders which I would suggest. First, don't cherry-pick. One poll does not mean all the others are wrong, and with 46 days to go, we'll see a lot more polls before the election. Besides, if you pick one you like, how is that automatically better than the one someone else likes? The clear message from the polls, taken in total, shows Bush ahead of Kerry, and the available Internals support that conclusion. Next, consider all the available information. Democracy Corps is a polling group owned and run by people who want Kerry to win, for example. John Zogby has made statements indicating he is a Kerry supporter. Also, the Zogby and Harris polls are taken in both a phone and internet format, so be careful to note the methodology; the interactive polls may be interesting, but they have not been validated yet in even one election yet. On the other hand, Harris and Pew have been around for a long time, relative to most polls, and Gallup (not to be confused with USA Today/CNN/Gallup) has been around since 1935, and they produce deeper detail and demographics than anyone else.
Before I finish, I would like to point out a few other key points from the Internal results:
[] Republicans prefer Bush 92.8-03.8 over Kerry
[] Democrats prefer Kerry 82.6-10.4 over Bush
This means that if Democrats and Republicans vote in equal numbers, Bush has a 51.6-43.2 lead right now
[] The Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll and Pew poll were the only polls to cite Veterans' preferences. Overall, Veterans support Bush 56.0-35.0 right now.
Small wonder Kerry is trying to drive that Guard service issue for all its worth. I can't help but think, however, that this could work against Kerry.
[] In Red States, Bush leads Kerry 53.3-38.3
[] In Blue States, Kerry leads Bush 50.7-36.7
[] In Swing States, Bush leads Kerry 48.7-43.7
That sounds OK for Kerry, even though he's losing overall by these numbers, until you realize that in addition to Florida and Ohio, the "swing" states in these polls include Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Oregon.
[] In these polls, Bush's average Job Approval rating is 51.3%, which traditionally means re-election.
[] Bush's "personal favorability" averages 52.3%, to Kerry's 46.1%.
I'm going to go out on a limb here, and say it looks good for President Bush, not too good for John Kerry.
Ras has Bush up by 4.
They have the 2nd most liberal bias behind Zogby. ARG usually run 3-5 points left of center and Zogby 6-7points left of center.
The guy has us up in the electoral lead, but he mentioned how ARG (American Research Group; a separate group), who is doihg polling of the 50 states, has the national poll 48-45. Usually the electoral vote trails the state, but who knows what the hell the actual national vote is at.
The guy has us up in the electoral lead, but he mentioned how ARG (American Research Group; a separate group), who is doihg polling of the 50 states, has the national poll 48-45. Usually the electoral vote trails the state, but who knows what the hell the actual national vote is at.
Among likely voters. ARG has it 47 to 47
Also, even Rasmussen has Bush up by four! His poll is designed to keep the race close or tilting Deocratic. Have no fear, creepy Kerry is nowhere near.
ARG definitely tilts left. They're probably stacking the poll by weighing more heavily for dems than repubs. I don't think W's up by 14, nor do I believe it's dead even. Zogby's last poll (last week, I think) showed Bush by 4. As little as I think of Zogby's objectivity, I would trust his polling most. He was the closest in the 2000 debacle. Most were showing Bush or Gore up by a few - Zogby had it as dead even on the night before the election. That's my take, for what it's worth.
Since CBS has been caught forging documents then one has to assume that some pollsters make up numbers. Nothing sacred anymore.
I mean who do you think pays these pollsters?? Why would a pollster continue to get work if they don't show the polls that help the buyer out??
John
Never heard of ARG. My cousin Bob says Bush will win by 23. Gallup stakes its reputation on its polls. ARG has no reputation, but would like to make one by getting loads of press for a Presstitute-Correct poll.
The past 2 days rassmussen has bush up by 4+ points. That is the largetst lead by any candidate for 2 consecutive days. The trick is to maintain a decent lead for more than 3 days due to its rolling factor.
Fake polls will now bombard us till the end of the election stating that Kerry is either tied or ahead, ignore them, go to the polls and vote for Bush, the media has been discredited, soon polls will travel down the same road.
Sorry, I wrote a confusing post. The website the link takes you to is different from the poll. That is just one he used on the site that shows Kerry ahead. He mentions it in his dialogue on the page.
You can throw Harris out. They have a history of overpolling Democrats. Pew swings somewhat left too. So does AGR. I looked at their site. It's 47-47 among likely voters. I think this is all about bucking up the Democrat base, including donors. Look at how the Kerry campaign is acting, certainly not like it's a close race, more like panic. I don't know what will happen in November but right now both camps would acknowledge that Bush is ahead.
sniff, sniff, Do I smell a troll?
OK Freepers I think we need an OZONE alert here. And do I see some Viking Kitties in Mike10542's future?
ARG is a joke. They use the Zogby method, only with cheaper Sauce.
Dude, WTF are you babbling about? The 48-45 ARG poll was taken 8/30 to 9/1.
Did you know PEW did 2 waves of polling within a 7 day period? Bush led by double digits in their 1st 'wave'
The Pew Center conducted two waves of polling over a seven-day period between September 8 and Tuesday.
In the first wave, Bush had a double-digit lead, but by the final wave of polling, the race had become a dead heat, indicating that the president's momentum had eroded.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/17/presidential.polls/
National polls lead, state polls follow, but I'm still skeptical of these national numbers.
bookmark and thanks for th polipundit info
Listen folks, I'm not spinning here. I said watch Gallup RVs after the convention. When Gallup showed a quick bounce, I said, "Yes, but look at the RVs... this is close." Now everyone's looking at these screwball polls by a bunch of nobody's and my advoce is still the same: Watch the Gallup RVs.
troll
I'm skeptical of Bush being up 11 points earlier and 14 points now. However, pretty much every state poll for the last month has shown Bush gaining and Kerry fading. If Bush is losing his bounce, it isn't showing up in the state polls.
very good read.
I think Kerry's friends are trying to save his candidacy.
Pew is now counting hanging chads.
Scroll down a little bit on the page. By the way, the 307/211 is derived by taking the most recent state polls and using a excel spreadsheet to calculate the Electoral college vote. The guy did a pretty good job too.
Turnout is going to be a key factor, and Kerry hasn't done anything to jazz up his base. Nobody knows what his Iraq policy is. He just goes through the motions when addressing minority groups and union workers.
A lot of Democrats will vote for Kerry, but I don't see any of them voting 2 or 3 times. I don't see Kerry getting much support from Dead, Non-Existent and Illegal voters, which are traditionally a very strong Democrat constituency.
Nobody's going to take a bullet for Kerry. Nobody's going to go to jail so that Teresa Heinz can be the first lady.
These polls are dem pipe dreams. Let's let the poor fools dream on. Poor Bast*rds
"The turn-out could end up being pretty weak for the Dems."
And even weaker for the Republicans because we became overconfident.
Practise saying, "President Kerry," over and over. "President Kerry and First Lady Theresa Heinz Kerry host first White House state dinner honoring Jacques Chirac for his dedication to Peace in Middle East."
Think of the young Marine in Wendy's with Kerry jabbing his long, Mandarin finger into the young Marine's chest. Think of this Marine waking up in Iraq on Nov 3rd and learning that his fate is in the hands of Commander in Chief John F. Kerry.
"Slicing off ears, chopping off heads, cutting off limbs, burning villages."
Think of Michael Moore's "freedom fighters" in Fallujah and Najarf waiting to learn who will command this young Marine. Waiting, waiting.
President Kerry, President Kerry, President Kerry. Keep saying it so that nothing else will be more compelling for you to do on November 2nd than showing up at the only poll that matters. b.
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