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VANITY: WHY THE GOP DOESN'T WANT TO WIN (Rush's 'Big Theory' revisited)
10-26-2005 | ovrtaxt

Posted on 10/26/2005 11:48:23 AM PDT by ovrtaxt

The GOP really doesn't want to decisively beat the Democrats. I'll explain.

Do you remember Rush Limbaugh's "BIG THEORY" back in the runup to the 2004 election? Here, refresh your memory, and let's take a look at this idea in light of the GOP's current position.

On "The Big Theory"

Rush Limbaugh, Monday, June 16, 2003. 01:10:00 (transcript)

See, the Rovian plan here, it's what "The Big Theory" is all about. The plan here is not to expand the party by expanding conservative ideas and getting people to understand them and agree with them. The plan is expand the number of Republican voters by going and getting existing Democrats and saying, "Hey, what you want, we've got. Listen to our plan, and we're in power now, and so you can be guaranteed to get what you want since we're in power." So - and Bush has a history of this going all the way back to Governor of Texas. Propose a plan and stubbornly stick with it and stick with it, and if it's opposed then compromise and go with the opponents and then claim credit for the whole thing himself. And that's what he's doing here.

Now, where does this lead? That's the whole question. Where does this lead? And I'll just put a theory out there. And you feel free to nuke it. And it's just a theory. Don't any - I don't want anybody out there assuming that I'm saying this is etched in stone. I'm just thinking out loud and sharing it with you.

This - some people - in some people's worldview this is small stuff. Prescription drugs, Medicare - small stuff - this is the stuff that you don't fight. This gets in your way. This gets you more enemies than friends; there's no way to win this stuff. Seventy-five percent of the American people want a prescription drug plan. Don't fight it; just go along with it and get them. Get them on your side because the big stuff is what you really care about.

What's the big stuff? Well, an example of the big stuff would be Supreme Court nominees, which there may be three sometime relatively soon, certainly within the next five years. And let's say that you really - when you - you're Bush - you want your nominees to be Scalia types, Clarence Thomas types - there's no way you're going to get them now. Not with the current margins. I mean, even though the Republicans run the Senate and run the House. Throw the House out when you talk about judicial nominees 'cause they don't matter. They just don't have the votes. If the Democrats are going to continue this filibuster business, and if you can't figure out a way to beat them on the filibuster, change the Senate rules or whatever, then you have to just get enough Republicans in there to get your votes and be able to have enough votes to sustain a veto of the democrats and basically say, "Screw them."

So you give up the little things like prescription drugs and the biggest spending plan in forty years, that's chump change, you give that up because the stuff that really shapes American life, the judges, the courts - that's what you want. So you go out and get enough people supporting you that when it comes time in 2004, you might get seven or eight more Senate seats on your side, getting you close to sixty Republicans, and at the same token, close to only forty Democrats. Oh, that would be huge. So you do that and you get similar numbers in the House. When you get those kinds of numbers in both chambers you can really do things. Doesn't matter what Tom Daschle is whining about everyday, at that point, because he doesn't have the numbers to stop you.


It's Not Working! by Rush Limbaugh, January 29, 2004 ( website article)

On Thursday, I took two calls on the Bush proposal to increase the National Endowment for the Arts' budget. As part of his continuing strategy to peel off Democrat voters by growing government, Bush wants to force all of us to give the NEA $15 to $20 million in 2004. Where in the Constitution does it say the federal government will fund art? If we like it, we can fund it on our own.

I can only explain what I think is happening. I can't explain why the White House thinks their strategy is working when it's clearly not. Bush 41 didn't have a strategy, as one caller mentioned when comparing the two presidents. Bush 43 does - and I'm sad to say it's taken the shape of outspending Bill Clinton on the domestic side. This immigration bill and the $400 billion ( Now $540b ) Medicare entitlement makes conservative voters feel taken for granted.

The Big Theory, softening people's view of conservatism by making Americans work more for government and less for themselves, isn't working. How can it? If you act like a liberal to get Democrat votes, you can't do something conservative when you win without losing those new voters. Bush requested $15 billion to fight AIDS in Africa and let Ted Kennedy write an education bill that spent more on "the children" than ever, and they still rip him to shreds on those issues. You know, Republicans told us that we needed to give them control of the House, Senate and White House to get something done.


Okay, that should be enough to get us back on the mental track that existed in the pre-2004 election period. This was Rush's explanation of the macro-political landscape, the grand master plan of the GOP at a strategic, nationwide level. That was then, but this is now:

It's the second term of Bush's presidency, he cannot be reelected, and we have indeed seen one successful and favorable SCOTUS appointment. By contrast, the Harriet Miers event has revealed the limit that conservatives are willing to endure, and the ugly reality is staring us in the face. Open borders, No Child Left Behind, astronomical spending, prescription drug entitlements, the NEA budget (remember?), billions for Africa, 200 billion for New Orleans, a really sorry excuse for a Presidential Tax Reform Commission, and of course the fiasco that was the 911 Commission has built up a logjam of resentment, and now the logs are breaking loose. (And that's just a partial list.)

So here is my own "Big Theory":

In light of all that has happened, I can only surmise that the GOP really doesn't want to destroy the Democrats. This theory of peeling off the Reagan Democrats by becoming more 'Democratish' themselves might work in an election year, but it's past that time now. We held our noses because we absolutely didn't want to see Kerry win. Now that he's gone, where's the conservatism that we all expected to surface? It's now the second term. This is the time to boldly advance conservatism and put these socialist in the grave forever- but no. It seems that the GOP has gone out of it's way to prop us these creeps.

Why would they do that, you ask? The GOP knows that once the Dems are no longer a threat, an internal war will immediately ensue on the right. As surely as the Dems would be history, so would the GOP as we know it. The two party system encounters a strange phenomenon when it events evolve to this point. Every election year, principled voters complain because they are forced to compromise in the general election. Sure, they get to cast a pure vote in the primary, but eventually most hardcore conservatives are reduced to voting against the radical socialism and suicidal foreign policy of the DNC by voting for the 'compassionate' big government socialism and strong defense of the GOP. So to the degree that Democrats are reduced to a relatively small group of irrelevant activists, conservatives would be more likely to consider other options, because small government isn't the goal of the GOP, winning elections is.

The logical way for the political strategists to respond to this circumstance is plain. Maintain the Democrats as a threat. This keeps conservatives on the plantation, because pragmatism dictates that as bad as government growth is, it's not nearly as destructive as Kerry or Algore undermining the military, the security of the country AND growing the government.

This logic explains why there were no investigations of Clinton-era crimes, even the negligence that led to 911. The one event that really hasn't exploded yet is Able Danger. This scandal has the potential to destroy many careers in DC, in both parties and among active and retired military. The media is running scared, because they can't predict who will get hurt. Certainly very powerful people in the Clinton circle, and perhaps many officers still serving today. We may even see the Able Danger trail of blood lead to Bush Administration personnel. As events stand today, the Pentagon has placed gag orders on active duty officers who know the truth, and many of us are rightfully outraged. In the case of Lt. Col. Shaffer, even the destruction of a patriotic soldier's career isn't out of bounds- all to protect the powerful.

So that's my theory. To summarize, the GOP wants to keep a relatively strong DNC around as a threat. Not strong enough to win, ideally, but strong enough to scare conservatives. This arrangement solidifies and secures their position, and even if they miscalculate and lose an election or two, they can always come back to run again and probably win. But the complete marginalization of the Democrats spells an end to the GOP as well. If conservatives felt that they had nothing to lose, they would bolt the GOP for greener pastures to the right, and perhaps form a conservative party strong enough to challenge the GOP.

The two parties need each other to keep playing the game, because they are part of the same paradigm.

More along these lines: Rush Limbaugh: Washington Elite Protect Their Power (Able Danger)

TOPICS: Government; History; Politics; Society
KEYWORDS: bigtheory; gop; gwb2004; rush
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To: ovrtaxt

The gun grabbers need scary gun violence stories to promote their agenda.

The NRA needs gun grabbers to pose at least the appearance of a threat in order to raise money.

Would the Republicans feel any sense of urgency if hillary! couldn't run? Doesn't the national party need the spectre of hillary! or worse running for office in order to raise money?

It's hard to convince anyone that there is an opponent if that opponent is dead or invisible.

You make some sense.

21 posted on 10/27/2005 1:00:26 PM PDT by Eagle Eye (There ought to be a law against excess legislation.)
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To: coladirienzi

1992 didn't smell right at all. The media threw the usual gauntlet around Bush and refused to allow a single positive word to be said about him or Quayle all year. That wasn't surprising, though their success was. They cooked a small recession that was already showing rebound into a horrible depression of immense suffering. The press outright cooked the figures and lied. Then a week after the election, AP reports "Bush was right. Economy was turning around. But too late."

"Newsweek" put Clinton on the cover in a soft blue sweater that spring, with portrait drawings of him being sworn in as president for a lead article.

Perot magically appears on Larry King. He later bails because he is too strong and doesn't really want to win. The press suddenly produces polls during the Dem convention showing Clinton with thirty point leads. They are bogus.

Bush never fights. There is never a rallying cry. Then Lawrence Walsh indicts Weinberger on the Friday before the election to blunt the last puny Bush surge. The indictments are quickly dismissed, but not before they cover the last weekend election cycle.

I never thought we would lose. I was amazed to see that Arkansas hillbilly mobster and his feminazi kook wife heading for the White House. Perot knew what he was doing. He was from Texarkana. Problem was, so did Bush Senior. The white male base of the Republican party divides between Bush and Perot. Socially liberal and libertarians, plus many veterans, gravitate to the "Little General." Only the Christians and mainstreet Republicans remain, not enough at all.

I still think GHWB threw that election to his pal Billyjeff. He still plays golf and raises money with the Gomer Pyle figure that beat him. And they are rumored to have done a lot more than that.

22 posted on 10/28/2005 5:03:48 PM PDT by Luke21
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To: ovrtaxt

I agree with it. Look at 'pubs that are pi**ed off at conservatives all the time. What is it they say again?? Say it with me.. DAMN YOU, YOU JUST WANT KERRY / HILLARY (insert democrat name here). A scare tactic they've been using on conservatives now when anyone questions where the GOP is going, questioning the policies of the administraion, or tired of being ignored.

Well, it's not going to work in '06. The betrayals of the GOP to the conservative base have gone unanswered long enough. Fine, if they don't need us, want us.. fine. If the "Rockerfeller Republicans" could work up the bravery to fight the left as much as they fight the conservatives, then perhaps we could get this party back on track.

As for me.. they better deliver something good soon. The amnesty plan will absolutely kill the GOP. So they better think long and hard about their next move.

23 posted on 10/28/2005 5:20:34 PM PDT by JesseJane (Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country. (More than a typing exercise))
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To: JesseJane; Luke21

I have seen sparks of life from conservatives lately. I think Miers was critical moment for us.

Thankfully, it wasn't prematurely wasted on a relatively unimportant issue. SC nominees are the entire reason I didn't leave the GOP to go farther right in 96 or 2000.

24 posted on 10/28/2005 6:30:41 PM PDT by ovrtaxt (You nonconformists are all the same.)
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To: ovrtaxt

For many, Miers was the tipping point. I'd reached it a while back. But I'm glad to see it, and hope this opportunity isn't squandered. Otherwise, the GOP will be toast.

25 posted on 10/28/2005 6:41:15 PM PDT by JesseJane (Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country. (More than a typing exercise))
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To: ovrtaxt

I think it will get Hillary elected..

26 posted on 10/28/2005 8:37:39 PM PDT by hosepipe (CAUTION: This propaganda is laced with hyperbole..)
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To: ovrtaxt
It's certain that the Democratic Party consistently nominates people who should never be president. John Kerry, Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter . . .

As long as the Democrats are the opposition and a real threat to win election, conservatives have to oppose them. Leaving us to support people who are not truly conservative but are actually the lesser evil.

27 posted on 10/29/2005 11:34:04 AM PDT by conservatism_IS_compassion (The idea around which liberalism coheres is that NOTHING actually matters but PR.)
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To: ovrtaxt


Are the Republicans THIS STUPID?

28 posted on 10/29/2005 12:28:27 PM PDT by nmh
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To: ovrtaxt
I would say it was a good one if it wasn't for the concept of "destroying the Democrat party". Democrats are the "Death to Republicans" party right now, it seems. Maybe Democrats are facing a net decline nationwide (anyone got any numbers supporting this besides the usual party defections?), but they still hold offices everywhere, not just NE and the left coast. The way a party dies is through a permanent schism or a loss of elected party members. How can Republicans induce that sort of thing in the Democrat party, and would Conservatives like any plan of action like that? Bush's plan was to kill Democrat national domestic policy by taking away health care and education, making conservatives justifiably nervous by never vetoing a bill. He's tried to take away the Democrat's great white hope and the GOP's old nightmare: Hispanic voters, making conservatives nervous again as he moves from party building tactics to pro-immigration legislation. On trade, he's done what every successful president has done over the last ten-fifteen years: follow the political winds and don't worry about the unions, much less count on their support. He's eclipsed any serious, distinct foreign policy stands on the part of the Dems aside from the question of withdrawing from Iraq sooner rather than later. He's come up with token gestures to make social conservatives happy and weaken national Democrats without really changing much of anything, as "cultural decline" is something that government can only contribute to in the first place. He's tried to strengthen GOP connections to the Washington bureaucracy with his various defense & WoT projects.

These are all very pragmatic goals designed to erode traditional Democrat support. It's worked rather well in some cases, but if he goes too far, he'll alienate conservatives who are patient enough to wait for their president to throw them some crumbs every now and then. Time is not on the Democrats side if the GOP can hope to keep their momentum going past '06, but that's not a certainty, especially since Bush really has been alienating conservatives lately in response to events. Bush can't control the weather, and the middle ground he's been taking (with the exception of the WoT) has only helped to make the future more uncertain. In the long run, Democrats can make a comeback as they have several times before. Opportunism has kept the Democrats alive for decades.

Until the GOP figures out how to deliver fundamental changes in the federal government (spending reductions, real tax reform, ending entitlements, bringing about real spending cuts, paring down the government, and empowering the conservatives in congress), it's going to be Democrats versus Republicans versus independents on the national level. Republicans (or conservatives) shouldn't continue to assume that it takes an ever larger majority in Congress to bring about these sorts of changes. On the state and local level, conservative activists need to continue to pull the GOP to the right, make them deliver on their promises, and undermine the Democrats everywhere.
29 posted on 10/29/2005 1:47:02 PM PDT by dr_who_2
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To: jan in Colorado


30 posted on 06/03/2006 7:52:01 AM PDT by Gondring (If a "Conservative" now wants to "conserve" our Constitution away, then I must be a Preservative!)
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To: ovrtaxt; Just A Nobody
For months I have been asking myself WHY is the President doing what he is doing? None of it makes sense to me!

You make some great points and observations. Thanks for posting your thoughts.

31 posted on 06/03/2006 8:44:01 AM PDT by jan in Colorado (Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum (If you wish for peace, prepare for war.))
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To: jan in Colorado

You're welcome. It's awfully cynical to suspect this, but it sure makes sense.

Of course, things are now shaping up, with the election approaching, to confirm what I've thought all along.

32 posted on 06/03/2006 8:46:29 AM PDT by ovrtaxt (My donation to the GOP went here instead:
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To: jan in Colorado; ovrtaxt
Thanks for the ping to this outstanding post.

Marking for later when I have time.

33 posted on 06/03/2006 12:08:25 PM PDT by Just A Nobody (NEVER AGAIN..Support our Troops! I *LOVE* my attitude problem. Beware the Enemedia!)
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To: JesseJane

JJ! Good to "see" you! Hope all is well and you are settled. ;*)

34 posted on 06/03/2006 12:09:24 PM PDT by Just A Nobody (NEVER AGAIN..Support our Troops! I *LOVE* my attitude problem. Beware the Enemedia!)
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