McCain wins Michigan and I will.
Posted on 07/21/2008 6:35:24 PM PDT by library user
Jonathan Martin gets a new Michigan poll via the Detroit News:
New poll numbers out from the Detroit News have the Michigan race between Obama and McCain very competitive with a chunk of voters still on the sidelines.
Obama is up 43-41, but 12% of voters said they're undecided.
My gut is that if undecideds are that high, John McCain is President. Michigan is a lot of electoral votes and we saw throughout the primaries that Obama never really closed well. The undecideds always broke hard against him.
Obviously, it is far too early to be making statements like this, but this and this New Hampshire poll suggest that McCain is very much in this.
(Excerpt) Read more at thenextright.com ...
I’ve been saying it for a while. This election is quite winnable by McCain.
If McCain wins Michigan, he wins nationally in a landslide.
I think it’s his to lose, in a way. Obama will get more media exposure, but he makes too many gaffes and the more the media fawn on him, the more arrogant he becomes, and the more mainstream non-kool aid drinking Americans will be repelled by him.
Not going to give my final electoral college update until after the convention. But this poll makes sense of what I’m seeing in the states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Remember Obama’s maximum vote is 48%.
If you would like to be added or dropped from the Michigan ping list, please freepmail me.
Anything from Rasmussen on Michigan?
In the past after a primary, we usually see a Rat ahead by 10 or 12 pct points.. Not this election.. It is too early, but I think there are some nervous people at the DNC..
If the Demwit Congress raises the gasoline and diesel taxes, McCain will win Michigan.
Thanks for the ping. With the feds in Michigan investigating Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, maybe the Wayne County ballot stuffers will be frightened in November. Macomb County goes to McCain and Michigan goes to McCain. Hardworking Michiganders are tired of Kwame bringing down Detroit, and ‘rat Michigan Governor Granholm
enabling him. This recession state is not in Barack’s column.
Can Mitt add 2-3 points in Mich?
Nothing recent. The last update was July 14 and had Obama up by eight points.
At the moment, Obama is Las Vegas oddsmakers’ -200 favorite to win with McCain at +150.
Certainly a rock star famous media darling “national unifier” should poll better than 43%.
How reliable is this poll? I agree that Michigan should be a shoe-in for a black Democrat, so this would be very telling. But I’m not sure if the poll can be trusted.
This phony overseas trip isn’t doing Obama any good either. People see how shallow and uninformed he is.
McCain will win unless he blows it. His position on avoiding preciptious withdrawal from Iraq is correct, no matter what the Iraqi government says.
Possible, although it's also possible that he reduces 2-3 points in other states.
Debates on the issues will only hurt him.
His charisma factor peaked in the primaries. Hillary was cleaning his clock in the later primaries but he had jumped off to an insurmountable lead before people saw he was nothing but a vapor.
Ironically, the endless campaign undermines the charismatic empty suit.
He can only shine if he doesn't stand on the stage too long. After this long, the smoke and mirrors lose their effect and he is looking like the same old political horses*** with the make-up running off.
He's already been on stage too long.
He is beyond his "sell-by date."
It is all downhill for Obama.
I have a friend who is a homosexual and a rabid liberal. He told me the other day that Obama scares him.
“It is too early, but I think there are some nervous people at the DNC..”
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I think I could safely guarantee that. I think Obama is going to ride into the convention no better than tied in the poles and slowly dropping. Most people seem to think he has the nomination locked up but he really doesn’t, not like McCain does. The Rats “superdelegates” are not locked in until they actually vote.
It would be nice to see a poll somewhere that had the Messiah actually on the downside of a “statistically tied” result. It almost seems fishy that whenever there is a result within two or three points, it’s never McCain on top.
Michigan hasn’t gone Republican since H.W. And putting Romney on the ticket won’t change that one bit.
I can’t see Michigan going Republican against a black liberal. Polls, crystal balls or ouigi boards notwithstanding. I just can’t see it happening.
So you see McCain winning by default?
Unfortunately, it looks like McCain tops out at 42%, and if you include leaners, 45%. I don’t see how he gets to 50.
“His position on avoiding preciptious withdrawal from Iraq is correct, no matter what the Iraqi government says.”
If it is what the Iraqi government wants, they should get it. And everything that comes with it.
An opinion blog. Not a news source.
I believe we will know who the next President will be immediately after the RAT Convention. If Obama goes up by 20 points, he will coast to victory.
If it is still close at that point, it will mean he has not closed the deal and the Undecideds will break for the safer choice with McCain.
At this point in the race, Dukakis was planning the events for his Inaguration, and would today be our exalted President for Life. Didn’t work out that way. Still too early to say how this one will turn out, but the MSM don’t have that many electoral votes.
I’d say more.
If it (US withdrawal) is what the Iraqi government wants, they should get it. And everything that comes with it.
Why? We conquered Iraq and we oversaw the election that produced this government. If they force US forces out, we will lose our bases there and our ability to use Iraq as a base to exert our influence throughout the Middle East and encourage democracy in the region.
If Maliki and his government seek to obstruct us, we will change the government of Iraq, just as JFK changed Diem’s government in S. Viet Nam.
Before the 2004 race, the MSM claimed to be worth 15 pts to J Effin' Kerry (see Thomas, Evan, editor Newsweek).
They went all out for Kerry, of course...but he still fell short. However, by most analyses, they were indeed worth the claimed 15 pts.
In a straight-up race, the Republican candidate starts with a 50-35 advantage. But, with their support, the MSM can make it a dead heat.
On that basis, you might conclude that the MSM has about 80 electoral votes. And you can safely assume they'll cast them for the Democrat candidate.
Good point, and I think that you are right. Nothing else could explain how this country could vote in such large numbers for lunatics the like of George McGovern, Eugene McCarthy, Jimmy Carter, Al Gore, and John Kerry.
The MSM have abandoned all pretense of responsible reportage in favor of partisan propaganda. How will it play among the American public?
I agree.We didnt lose those service people and spend all that money for some political slipknot like malaki to just say: We want you to leave now.Aint happening.
That's funny and so true. Yes, Obama peak numbers are way behind him.
We need to remember, though, that granholm had a 43% approval before the “06 election and then won with 57% of the vote.
The rats in Detroit will manufacture whatever number of votes needed to give nobama the win. And Detroit never reports its votes until after the rest of the state. Plus our chicken RINO state attorney general will never send poll watchers into Detroit or Lansing, let alone prosecute voter fraud.
And...many thousands of conservative productive citizens have fled the socialist/welfare state of Michigan. Michigan is No. 1 in renting U-Hauls and hiring moving companies to leave the state. These potential republican voters are being replaced by welfare bums, state workers, workman’s comp con-men and others who depend on the state to exist.
This is not the same Michigan that elected Engler. McCain should not waste his time and money here, but should instead go after a midwesstern state like Wisconsin.
Throw in the bradley factor and when have a 5 point McCain lead.
First there is a reaction from these voters to Barry's and the cRats energy policy. Current gasoline prices not only make it hard t for the middle class to function day to day, they virtually guarantee the obliteration of the automobile industry. That is plenty obvious to to even blue collar stiffs in the industrial belt down through Ohio and Western Pennsylvania. Their jobs and communities are threatened. The cRars have been forced to chose between the environmentalists and the working class and they have come down on the side of The Hot Air Cult. This gives a huge advantage to McCain as the economic slowdown will be perceived as a consequence of energy price strangulation.
But there is another factor at work with this class of voters. White middle class voters have watched Detroit in recent years descend into third world chaos. Kwame Kilpatric’s pimp act and Monica Conyers gangster government routine may give pause to even white union households as they contemplate Barry and his entourage of black nationalists taking such a blight to the level of national government. The racial anger they see in Detroit government is not unlike the Chicago inner city politics that spawned Obama. And Monica Conyers' anger, while cruder than Michelle Obama’s, is not of a different kind.
There is another aspect to the dysfunctional Detroit government/black anger story. It is harder to gage because it is under reported in the press for political correctness purposes. Images like these:
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=7a8_1212781669
of black gangs attacking individual whites in Detroit's suburbs are going to do little to convince middle class whites that they need to support anything resembling black grievance politics.
These effects should be apparent from Wisconsin down through Michigan and Ohio and into Western Pennsylvania. If it is even close right now in Michigan, Barry is in big trouble. This suggests he will lose Ohio and may have to fight hard for Pennsylvania. If he loses Michigan, that's game.
I don't either, but, recall that this is the age of the "plurality presidency." You don't need a true majority of more than 50.
I'm starting to depress myself again...
Good points sergeantdave. Grantheft (”and in 5 years your gonna be blown away”) was a Hillary girl. The undecideds will break huge for McCain, given the conditions Detroit and the state IMO. It will be interesting.
“We conquered Iraq”
Oh really? I thought we “liberated” them?
“If they force US forces out, we will lose our bases there and our ability to use Iraq as a base to exert our influence throughout the Middle East and encourage democracy in the region.”
IT IS THEIR COUNTRY.
“If Maliki and his government seek to obstruct us, we will change the government of Iraq, just as JFK changed Diem’s government in S. Viet Nam.”
Hmmm, Vietnam? Haven’t the pro-war folks been spending years trying to show the anti’s how this is NOT like Vietnam?
Although Rush used a lot of words in this monologue, he is basically saying the same thing he said about Cunningham playing QB in Philly...
The media has a vested interest in a black man being put into this position.
The people that can't see it need to have their eyes checked.
Michigan voters banned affirmative action and queer marriage/unions by wide margins.
Michigan's CCW laws are equal to those of Texas.
It's not the liberal state that everyone thinks it is.
I'm still with you, though, Sarge...McCain doesn't win the mitten in November.
That's the problem right there--white union households will never see BHO for what he really is. Never. He is looked upon as the Messiah who will save the auto industry in MI. That's how the union bosses are selling him, and believe me, it is working.
Lansing is the stronghold of unions in the state, more so than any other city. It's a GM town. It's home to the state government, and nearly all state employees are union. In addition to MSU in neighboring East Lansing, we are home to several colleges--LCC, Davenport, Cooley Law, et al--MEA stranglehold. Heck, the MEAs HQ is here.
BHO is wildly popular in this town. It doesn't matter if a voter is white, middle class, blue (or white) collar. It doesn't matter if the voter is Catholic. If they are union and they live in Lansing, they will vote BHO. Detroit would be easier to turn, I'm not kidding.
McCain wins Michigan and I will.
The 'Pubs should look at the 2000 map, and focus on holding everything that we had then. That means make a major, major effort in OH and VA and CO. Those are very wobbly at this point. McCain needs to find a better message than this globalist losing-your-job-to-cheap-foreign-labor-is-good-for-you he's been pushing in OH. It's like trying to sell a duck on l'orange. Sheer political suicide in a state as hard-hit as OH. If the 'Pubs want to try to flip any state, try for PA. The unions are strong there, too, but no as much as in MI.
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