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Prove me wrong, John
The GOPNation.com ^ | October 3, 2008 | Natasha Luke

Posted on 10/03/2008 9:26:28 AM PDT by bmweezer

Prove me wrong, John

Despite Sarah Palin's impressive performance last night, for those that didn't know (or maybe don't care), I admited this earlier this morning: I believe that Barack Obama is going to win the election in 32 days. There, I said it. No, that doesn't make me a bad Republican, nor does it make me a bad American, because I'm not saying this because I want it to happen. In fact, I hope that on November 5th I wake up and have a "Dewey Beats Truman" moment. However, I consider myself a well-verse student of election history and as such, history tells us that Obama will win. What has been most disturbing to me, however, has been the speed of the McCain swoon, which lead to my conclusion.

On September 25 - just 8 days ago - most state polls showed Obama leading by no more than 286-252 electoral votes. In the popular vote totals taken that day, Obama lead by just 3 points, 48-45. Since that time, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina, which total 62 electoral votes went to Obama, and the Democrats took nearly a seven point lead in the popular vote. Also, there were steady shifts away from McCain in Nevada, Michigan, and even in Indiana, so much so that the McCain camp pulled out of Michigan.

The financial bailout situation, of course, has not been kind to John McCain, and neither was the first presidential debate. The first elevated George W. Bush to the front of the cameras, which tied McCain again to the unpopular president of the same party. Then, during the debate, Obama did what he had to do: he convinced many that had been unconvinced that he could be president. Hence, the Obama surge, my anxiety, and McCain/Palin playing catchup.

What is amazing is this: if state polls - particularly those in the aforementioned Ohio, Florida and North Carolina - move back towards McCain, the race will be ever-closer to a tie once again and perhaps then all of this talk about an Obama coronation by the main streamers and yes, by me might lessen. Right now, according to RealClearPolitics, Obama leads by +2 in Ohio, +3 in Florida, and just +0.5 in North Carolina. In the next few days, I recommend that GOPers - including myself - watch the numbers from these states very closely. If McCain is going to come back, it will be detected here first.


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 10/03/2008 9:26:28 AM PDT by bmweezer
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To: bmweezer

It does make you foolish. A month is eternity in politics, and by saying such things you only depress the vote of those who may be considering the ticket.

If it was a 20 point lead, it would be one thing, but it is not.


2 posted on 10/03/2008 9:27:47 AM PDT by Red in Blue PA ("I will stand with the Muslims should the political winds shift in an ugly direction" Obama, from Au)
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To: bmweezer

What don’t you just give up? Apparently you already know what is going to happen.


3 posted on 10/03/2008 9:29:27 AM PDT by Cathy
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To: bmweezer

Yawn.

Tell us something that we dont know from reading polls.

Now, if you spent an hour focussed on answering the question:

WHAT WILL AN OBAMA PRESIDENCY REALLY GIVE US?

and

WHY CANT WE GET THE REAL TRUTH ABOUT WHO OBAMA IS TOLD?

then you might have something interesting.

THE ONLY THING WE HAVE TO FEAR IS OBAMA HIMSELF


4 posted on 10/03/2008 9:30:50 AM PDT by WOSG (Change America needs: Dump the Pelosi Democrat Congress!!!)
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To: Red in Blue PA

We don’t need to watch the polls we need to get out there and change the polls. So many conservatives are insular. Talk to your family friends and associates. Phone bank and door know. There is so much more we can do than just watch the polls. No one ever won anything being a cynic.


5 posted on 10/03/2008 9:31:15 AM PDT by Maelstorm (This country was not founded with the battle cry "Give me liberty or give me a government check!")
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To: bmweezer

dippee reasoning... i’d say..


6 posted on 10/03/2008 9:31:58 AM PDT by rusureitflies? (OSAMA BIN LADEN IS DEAD! There, I said it. Prove me wrong.)
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To: bmweezer

I see Luke is “well verse”.

Good for him. I hope his college education helps out.


7 posted on 10/03/2008 9:32:36 AM PDT by rlmorel (Who is Saul Alinsky and why is Barack Obama a disciple of his methods?)
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To: bmweezer
Uh-oh...it's yet another Gloom-and-Doom Drama Queen thread.

OK, here. I'll play along.

McCain is toast! The election is over! This country is dead! We're all doomed! The sky is falling! OMG, OMG, OMG!!

There. Happy? :eyeroll:

8 posted on 10/03/2008 9:33:30 AM PDT by Allegra ( Go Sarah!)
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To: bmweezer

this article is more handwringing based on polls. we aren’t buying this psy ops garbage by these so-called “republicans”.


9 posted on 10/03/2008 9:33:38 AM PDT by kingattax (99 % of liberals give the rest a bad name)
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To: bmweezer

Obama can only win by carrying typically solid GOP states...VA, OH, FL, CO, NV, NC, IN, et.

Though he leads in some of these polls, election day will be a different matter.

To win, he must:

win one of OH or FL
win two of VA/NC/CO/IN
win three of CO/IA/NV/NM

and, he must hang on to PA, WI, NH and MN

So, yes, he is leading in the polls, but his map is a challenge. His only way to win is on offense.

McCain can play defense, and even drop a few states, and still win.


10 posted on 10/03/2008 9:34:23 AM PDT by Retired Greyhound
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To: bmweezer
RCP averages the polls. It doesn's do any polling of its own. If the polls it uses are junk, its averages are junk. Simple as that. The RCP averages used the bogus Q. polls we discussed days ago for OH and FL. The NC results are equally suspicious. If Mason Dixon shows McCain up by 3 in VA, you know he's up in NC. So Natasha shouldn't give up her day job.

Heck there are so many pundits out there today I should put out my own blog and call myself an expert.

11 posted on 10/03/2008 9:35:30 AM PDT by Don'tMessWithTexas
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To: bmweezer

More gloom and doom on freerepublic. What’s the point?


12 posted on 10/03/2008 9:35:43 AM PDT by sarasota
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To: Cathy

I don’t believe these polls. I believe that internal polls were worsening for McCain in Michigan. I think the Bailout hurt McCAin and once resolved he will rebound.

Bush lost the 1st debate to Kerry big time as I recall. He came back in number two, and hit him hard. The 527s kicked in too.

I look for McCain to hit hard on the issues and not let Obama slip away this time with his interruptions when the “truth hurts.”

Yes, I look for Obama to do this big time in the town hall meetings. i.e. interrupting McCAin again and again...and saying “John, I will NOT let you paint a false picture of me to the American public....etc”

McCain should counter with, “The truth hurts, doesn’t it Senator? I’m sorry if this offends you, but these are exactly your positions on these issues and this clearly is what you said and how you voted.”


13 posted on 10/03/2008 9:36:08 AM PDT by nikos1121 (Obama-Biden Where's the beef?)
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To: bmweezer

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2094322/posts

GOP Nation needs to watch this video. Defeat Obama Now, Fight McCain Later.


14 posted on 10/03/2008 9:36:08 AM PDT by word_warrior_bob (You can now see my amazing doggie and new puppy on my homepage!! Come say hello to Jake & Sonny)
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To: bmweezer
admited
well-verse
catchup




There, Natasha, I proved you wrong.
15 posted on 10/03/2008 9:37:59 AM PDT by macamadamia (Life is a continuation of war by other means.)
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To: bmweezer

I believe Obama will never win and it’ll be a landslide for McCain/Palin.


16 posted on 10/03/2008 9:38:30 AM PDT by Lucky9teen (Do as I say, not as I panic.)
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To: Allegra

“Uh-oh...it’s yet another Gloom-and-Doom Drama Queen thread.
OK, here. I’ll play along.

McCain is toast! The election is over! This country is dead! We’re all doomed! The sky is falling! OMG, OMG, OMG!!

There. Happy? :eyeroll:”

You’re still my hero.


17 posted on 10/03/2008 9:38:51 AM PDT by Warren_Piece (Smart is easy. Good is hard.)
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To: bmweezer
The author is engaging in the most foolish kind of self-defeatism.

Why it would appear on a "GOPnation" website is beyond me. I certainly wouldn't waste a dime on supporting a "GOP" website that runs such swill.

Let's leave the "defeat the Republicans" talk to the MSM, not our partisan websites.

18 posted on 10/03/2008 9:39:10 AM PDT by snowsislander
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To: sarasota

They perform a valuable service to the left whether they know it or not.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2094322/posts


19 posted on 10/03/2008 9:41:15 AM PDT by word_warrior_bob (You can now see my amazing doggie and new puppy on my homepage!! Come say hello to Jake & Sonny)
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To: kingattax

The OP is a serial hit and run article pimping poster and a member of the GOPNation.

We need doom and gloom articles from a pimper-poster like we need a hole in the head.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2094322/posts


20 posted on 10/03/2008 9:44:00 AM PDT by word_warrior_bob (You can now see my amazing doggie and new puppy on my homepage!! Come say hello to Jake & Sonny)
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To: bmweezer
The GOP needs to get out there and loudly shout FRAUD when it comes to the number taker's with these polls and push fwd strong and with great energy that victory is at hand for the right. Don't let some skewed poll that bounces up and down like a YO YO sucker you into believing they have every household vote counted. No one's called my house except some damn windshield place that keeps wanting to know if I am in need of a new windshield. If I were called for a poll like I was 4 years ago the second I said I was voting for Bush they hung up. By the way I never got another call for a poll. So if you are getting too many calls for polls just say you are voting straight Repub and mysteriously the poll takers stop calling. Wonder if that would work on my local pesty windshield guy? :)
21 posted on 10/03/2008 9:44:16 AM PDT by cosmic_me (Stop picking your nose. People are watching.)
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To: bmweezer

You guys quit running spelling and grammar checks on the posting, even though it is short-sighted.
Remember, in 2004 Kerry was leading until election and then, according to him, OBL put out a video that killed his election.
Also, John McCain has been known to resurrect his candidacy. I also have a vision of a last minute field goal that will put him over the top. I was frustrated when McCain camp announced they were pulling out of Michigan, they could have done it and just shut up about it, publicizing it just gave Obomber a little more ammunition, even though it was obvious that, just like in the last 2 elections, Detroit would swing Democratic.
McCain hasn’t given up. He’s just tired from the Bailout Odyssey and the MSM beating him and Sarah Palin up. He will make a rebound. There’s still that silent majority out there (Ohio, Florida and all of the fly-over states) that will vote for him. John just needs to bone up and pounce on Obomber in the last 2 debates. Can’t play all your marbles too early, the Weasel (O) will just talk everyone down with all his lies.


22 posted on 10/03/2008 9:48:32 AM PDT by steelydan
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To: steelydan

I posted this on GOPNation.com just now.

True Republicans will go down swinging and despite what looks like a Democratic victory, we need to remember that the election isn’t until November 4. So as a true Republican, stop these negative posts and instead do something about it.


23 posted on 10/03/2008 9:57:02 AM PDT by bmweezer (Visit GOPNATION.com)
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To: Warren_Piece

;-)


24 posted on 10/03/2008 10:39:24 AM PDT by Allegra ( Go Sarah!)
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To: bmweezer
Yeah, well that is what Natasha says, but I am more interested in what Boris thinks...


25 posted on 10/03/2008 10:48:51 AM PDT by ejonesie22 (Finally a Conservative on the RNC ticket....)
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