Posted on 07/16/2009 4:39:17 PM PDT by techno
As the readers of FR know there is a decided gap between Sarah Palin's favorability numbers among her own party and/or Republicans and Republican Independents and who they would actually cast their vote for as POTUS as multiple polls have shown recently. Here is my take on why this is so:
1)There is a certain segment of Republicans or conservatives who firmly believe that Sarah will be too politically damaged by the MSM to be a viable candidate in 2012 even though many of them like Sarah personally or her policies. This is a legitimate concern that I hope does not play out this way but it must be acknowledged as a concern to party members. Sarah must prove to the party over the course of the next 16 months that she can withstand or bear up to the 24/7 scrutiny of the MSM full court press. Consider the next 12 months as the regular season and the leadup to the 2010 midterms as the playoffs. In professional sports you are measured mostly on how well you perform and execute in the playoffs. The MSM take on Sarah Palin will not matter if Sarah performs well as a battlefield commander
2)There are party members who profess skepticism over Sarah's leadership abilities or skills, especially with regards to her being able to orchestrate huge gains for the GOP in the House and/or Senate in the 2010 midterms ot perhaps take back a house. If Sarah was able to pull this off she would put this objection to rest once and for all
3)Then there are those who see Palin as a disaster for the party, who cannot envision uniting the party after she prevails in the primaries, forgetting that Ronald Reagan was as despised as she is now and that Reagan not only managed to unite the GOP in 1980 but also leveraged this unity as a springboard to a landslide victory
4)Some are not sure that Sarah is not prepared to be POTUS right now, although they know she will be in 2012. I will concede that Sarah Palin is not ready to be POTUS right now because she has been rightly preoccupied with state matters and has not focused her attention exclusively to national issues. By the way who holds down the job is not up for discussion until Nov. 2012. However, I believe this perception will gradually change over the next 2-3 years and the gap will close as Sarah uses her time in the wilderness (without a job) to get her ducks in a row and build up her national resume and credibility by writing op-ed columns, giving speeches, raising a boatload of money for the GOP, and appearing frequently on TV and radio to espouse her conservative points of view
5)Right or wrong Sarah is not perceived by many Republicans to be 'an economic genius' that Romney is presented to be. The gap reflects that these folks recognize Sarah for her charm and charisma but don't think she has 'the right stuff' and is not the right person in 2012 to get the country back on track after Obama gets throguh destroying the American economy. Over the next 2 years, Sarah has to build up her economic creds (speeches, interviews, academics and economists who back her positions) if she wants to assuage thse folks that she is not an economic illiterate or incompetent and convince them she is worthy and qualified to restore the American economy to its previous greatness
6)Some Republicans are concerned that the 'quitting meme' will be used by the Democrats to tear down Sarah's credibility in the general election to create doubt as to Sarah's psychological makeup, her temperament to govern or lead, and imply to especially older voters she is stereotypcially a flighty, whimsical female who doesn't know her own mind and suggest that met with the first great challenge of her presidency would bail out on the American people because she could not bear up to the stress or pressure of the job or a life-and-death decision
7)Some primary voters are concerned about Levi Johnston and wonder what future revelations about Sarah and the Palin family he may unveil down the road to damage Sarah's personal and political reputation. The gap reflects the doubt some people have that Sarah can overcome Levi, the Bristol pregnancy and the tabloidization of the Palin family politically speaking
8)Sarah is 45 and if nominated by the GOP as its standardbearer in 2012 will be 48. Frankly some folks believe that Sarah needs more seasoning, more experience and will not be prepared to be POTUS or enjoy enough gravitas to be taken seriously in 2012. These folks suggest 2016, 2020 or 2024 will be a better road to follow
9)In the evangelical community there is something that is not spoken about openly but nevertheless is real; there is a misogynistic streak among some of its members to which they may openly like Sarah or favor her brand of conservatism they cannot bring themselves to cast a vote for her her because she is a woman; enter Mike Huckabee
10)And there are members of the GOP who subcribe to the notion or practice that Romney is next in line in 2012 (eg Charles Krauthammer). Sarah will have to wait her turn regardless of what she brings to the table
NB: I am a Sarah Palin supporter but I believe that Palin supporters should not bury their head in the sand and expect these considerations and anti-Sarah points of views to vanish magically or because we want them to go away. They are real and must be dealt with. However, I do not think any of them are valid.
dont believe what you read...including most polls.
I’m confused. Is there an election going on any time soon in which Mrs. Palin might be a candidate? I don’t see anything on my calendar for the next couple of years, unless she wants to run for Mayor of Stallings this November.
I’m not voting for Mitt Romney.
A very interesting analysis. She has a tough road ahead, tougher than most. But I think she will come out stronger in character than all the other candidates.
I am a big fan of Sarah, and I know that the MSM and the rinos will stop at nothing. I know some will waver, but we must keep our eyes on the prize.
Right on. My attention is focused on making gains in 2010. If Palin can help us with that through fund-raising appearances and such, terrific. 2012 is a long time from now, let’s cross that bridge when we come to it.
For me Palin’s significance is profound. It is not as much her as much the ideological bigotry that has risen up in this nation to create a sense of scandal and shame about being conservative.
The yelping dogs of MSNBC, CNN, academia and elsewhere continue to behave in a uniquely hateful way to intimidate conservatives. It has been building for a long time. Until Conservatives successfully humilate this community on a national scale, the escalation will continue.
I think it is very important to put someone in who has been rejected by the punditry. The public tends to know this.
Regarding #5 I do not believe that Romney is an economic genius but just because I don’t believe it doesn’t mean that the idea has not gained currency among certain segments of the GOP. Remember the topic is to offer an explanation of why there is a gap between the high favourables numbers Sarah currently enjoys and why they do not necessarily translate into votes.
As to #9 I have had many conversations with evangelicals online and they admit to its presence in some circles in the evangelical community. Is it prevalent everywhere? No. But Richard Land of the Baptists felt he needed to come out and say during the 2008 campaign that it was all right for a woman to be in a leadership position as long as her husband (Todd Palin) went along with it. Why do think Land felt compelled to issue this public statement?
And as to Huckabee I was stating the obvious. If evangelicals will not vote Palin they will tend in high numbers to probably support Huckabee. This has been borne out in several polls over the last 6 months.
That would be Democrats, and RINOs who fear being "primaried out".
This 'economic genius' supported TARP, and helped create RomneyCare. The trouble with Romney is not his brains, but the fact that he wants power so much he can taste it, and he will adjust anything else in order to get or retain power.
In my opinion, because he is an idiot.
That is why Palin supporters have to get the word out to misleading facts of Romney’s economic credentials and the truth of Sarah’s economic competence and of her economic blueprint and model based on Reagan conservative principles to restore American to its previous greatness.
Thank you for being a sane Sarah supporter who has not drunk the Koolaid.
Go with your gut and your principles. Enough nuance and analysis.
No more Mitt. No more loser RINOS.
11. Mrs. Palin knows how to talk to her base. Her base is not amused by the current crop of socialists aka, democrats, or RINO types. The base is not only ready for change, but would dearly like to have their country back.
I think most Americans can be made to understand that we don’t need an economic genius for President, we need someone with common sense and character. Once Palin is free to become a prominent public figure, I expect that opinions will start to change.
As it should be! My excellent U.S. Rep is secure, so I'll be working on state-level races for 2010. Arguing over 2012 candidates is seriously unhelpful.
Re: 1. They think that she’s too damaged by the MSM so they let the MSM have their way.
Oh, Puh-LEEZ! What the hell has she been doing all this time?!?! WITHOUT the help of the GOP! Her own damn party sits on their collective butts doing nothing -- or worse, joining the chorus of the enemy -- and then has the audacity to say, hrumph, we must see is she can "handle" the full court press. It is so sick and wrong and bugs me to no end. They could feed and pet on Arlen Specter, that traitorous lout, but give them a real American, a woman who wants the things the GOP platform is supposed to stand for, and she is villified BY HER OWN.
Damn jackasses, all of 'em.
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