Skip to comments.Modern Survival Tenet Six (SHTF can come in a variety of ways - whatever the case be prepared)
Posted on 08/07/2009 4:30:15 PM PDT by appleseed
Many in the survivalist community like to focus on what I call the Hollywood Disasters. This includes things like a total economic collapse, an unstoppable virus, a biological weapons attack or perhaps a complete shut down of the electrical grid. Now please do not misunderstand me, each of these threats is real and honestly could happen. My question to you is how likely are any of them to occur in the next 30 days, how about the next 10 years? Now answer these questions for yourself
What is more likely to happen tomorrow morning, you lose your job or we all face a complete collapse of the U.S. economy?
Is it more likely that a person living near a large metropolitan area will have to deal with localized riots over a local issue or that a global pandemic will cause the death of 50% of the planets population?
Will a California resident be more likely to be effected by an earthquake or a global nuclear war?
In the next six weeks are we more likely to face a domestic truckers strike that disrupts the food supply or a global climate shift that destroys 50% of the worlds agriculture?
The reality is there is the potential for each of the above and countless other factors to radically effect our lives, yet if you are honest and dont buy into sensationalism answering the above four questions is very easy to do. With that in mind I created what I call the Threat Probability Matrix when I formulated my modern survival philosophy. The rules of the matrix are quite simple, the less people effected by an event the more likely it is to occur to an individual. That statement may seem counterintuitive but it really isnt, just consider the following line
Individual - Localized - Small Region - Large Region - National Global
Now think of one disaster for each of these and ask yourself how likely you are to actually experience this event in the next year or next ten years. You can think of any disaster and then just assign it to one of the six categories and you will quickly see that in most instances the larger the effected area, the lower the probability that it will actually happen. Here are some examples
Individual Job Loss Localized Damage From Strong Storms Small Region City Riots Spreading To The Suburbs Large Region Large Scale Hurricane Damage To A Coastal Region National A Well Organized Terrorist Attack on 25 Major U.S. Cities Global A Rapid Climate Shift Brings On An Ice Age Again I just plugged in some common disaster scenarios; you can plug in any that you can think of, assign them to an area of effected individuals and like clock work as you move from Individual to Global the honest probability of occurrence will decline as the affected area grows.
Why is this so important? Why does it even matter? Simply because if you want to properly prepare for potential disasters there is simply so much to do that it is very easy to become quickly overwhelmed. Due to this many people begin to start preparing but end up falling out simply because they come to the conclusion that, really being ready is just not possible. There is just too much for anyone to do with out spending a fortune, is a common statement.
It doesnt have to be this way, by considering the probably and preparing for the most likely first and proceeding from there plans, preps and actions naturally fall into place as you develop your plan. As you progress through you own disaster preperation plan you will start to realize that by the time you prepare for individual, neighborhood and small regional disasters you are very well along your way to being as prepared as is honestly possible for just about anything.
His Hollywood Disasters thing however, has become more of a reality in the last 6 months than most folks wish to admit. In fact it has become a focus for us who have been inclined to be prepared even during good times.
All 4 scenarios he mentions are a definate possibility in my opinion. Take his question on how likely is the experience probable to happen and I would say to all 4 that is more than likely in the near future.
This Govt. is out of control. Unheard of deficits. They have created more programs to spend money than I never thought possible. Takeover of the auto industry, Govt. subsidizing financial industries, cash for clunkers, a proposed Govt. takeover of a sixth of the economy to socialize healthcare, citizens fed up with this soliciast/Marxist hijacking of our country, polorizing race into a situation where black is always right and white is always wrong (Cambridge - Gates vs. PD), thinking a photo op and drinking some beer will wash away the racial edge they started, HCAN and their commie friends calling to arms defending their communist health care proposal against those of us who oppose it, calling us right wing radical who are nothing more than mothers, elderly, hardworking folks who play by the rules and contribute our share to society, funding these Govt. programs that we totally despise, the so-called Pre--dent calling out his community activist (Brownshirts) to confront those of us who oppose his agenda, gathering by the thousands to oppose the direction our country is headed by communicating to our Representatives and being totally ignored, watching the person others have elected to be the occupant of our White House agree to listen to foreign dictators while our voice is ridiculed and silenced, how many times do I have to hear that our country is sorry for the problems of the world. I'm at the end of my rope folks.
The Govt. talks about those right wing radicals that are disrupting town halls. I fear that they haven't seen nothing yet. Keep bringing on the union and Acorn stormtroopers to confront us with violence and you will see history repeat itself. Maybe that's what they want. If this is the case, our powder is dry, we have had enough.
The Hollywood Disasters is just about hit.
Thanks for posting this. There’s a lot of wisdom in his comments.
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Thanks for the post. I’m a bit of a preparedness ‘professional’ if you will, so I appreciate the other viewpoints.
A few ports could get shut down, and the shelves would start to go empty in stores within a month or so. If the major ports in the US, Mexico, and Canada were to get nuked, we would be totally screwed for a good while.
the fewer the people affected
He has some interesting things to say. I wish he would learn a bit more about English.
I don’t see a lot of people connecting the dots as to how the coming collapse of the dollar as the international reserve currency will affect them. You don’t even have to think about depression & hyperinflation. Look at China, they could not finance this latest binge of defect spending even were they inclined to. So what happens when no trading partner wants dollars? Walk through any modern shopping emporium and look at where all the manufactured goods come from. Now say goodbye to them. I can’t even get my head around what dislocations this causes in the short term. In the long term it may mean a return of American manufacturing but that implies energy consumption and ..., well you get the picture. The only question I have is was this intentional or the result of stupidity?
The first circle is yourself. The second, your immediate family. The third, your like-minded neighbors, then your community, and so on and so on.
Then one assembles the very, very basics; 3 days of water and food, a small amount of cash, stout shoes, and a small pack. After that you start adding more. From three days of water and food you go to a week and add a firearm and more cash.
While doing this you assemble your GOOD (Get Out Of Dodge) plan. In reasonably short order, if you're disciplined about it, you'll find that you have 3 months worth of supplies for you and your family and that your family, trusted friends, and neighbors do to.
Now this is the 20,000 foot view I'll admit. But it's enough to get people started. And it's better to have a plan you've started than no plan at all.
I’m glad you’re a FReeper. Thanks for all the good pings.
“A few ports could get shut down, and the shelves would start to go empty in stores within a month or so.”
A month is highly optimistic. ;) Are you familiar with the “JIT inventory” system? ;)
And in the case of grocery stores, it’s more like a matter of hours. Happens around here *every* time a major winter storm is forcast. Bread, milk, and TP are the first items to go, followed closely by bottled water and then they head for anything in a can, especially soup - and then crackers. ;)
At least China invested in infrastructure - roads, dams, railroads. That infrastructure costs some money to maintain, but that is less than the construction cost. And with their forced labor laws, they’d find a way to maintain everything they’ve built.
Our money has gone into designer vacations, fast food, welfare to train a lot of people to uselessness, and junk from China you can’t even safely burn to keep warm.
I think China, at least, planned their side of the equation.
“A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently and die gallantly.
“Specialization is for insects.”
Robert Heinlein, Time Enough for Love