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Commercial Real Estate Next Big ‘Shoe to Drop’
Bob McCarty Writes ^ | 10-16-09 | Bob McCarty

Posted on 10/16/2009 4:05:26 PM PDT by BobMcCartyWrites

Describing it as a developing story, Fox News Channel’s Bret Baier just reported that President Barack Obama was briefed today about “the next big financial shoe to drop” — commercial real estate. It dovetails perfectly with what I reported nine months ago in a post, Trendwatcher: ‘Crash of ‘09? Will Be Worst Ever", and portends of more radical financial shenanigans — bailouts, stimulus packages, etc. — coming out of Washington, D.C.


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: bailout; economy; realestate; refinancing
Describing it as a developing story, Fox News Channel’s Bret Baier just reported that President Barack Obama was briefed today about “the next big financial shoe to drop” — commercial real estate. It dovetails perfectly with what I reported nine months ago in a post, Trendwatcher: ‘Crash of ‘09? Will Be Worst Ever", and portends of more radical financial shenanigans — bailouts, stimulus packages, etc. — coming out of Washington, D.C.

In that post, I cited the bold predictions made by Gerald Celente, founder of the Trends Research Institute, who tracks all kinds of trends, including the economy. During an appearance on The Glenn Beck Show Feb. 10, Celente made the bold prediction that an upcoming “Crash of 2009? is going to be worse than the Crash of ‘29 — and worse than any crash before.

While seeking more detailed information about Celente, I found a two-part recording of an appearance he made on Los Angeles radio station KFI-AM 640’s John and Ken Show Feb. 6. Below are the highlights — or, in reality, the lowlights — that lie ahead, according to Celente:

* The commercial real estate market will collapse;

* People will be unable to pay their credit cards;

* Crime will increase as people who feel they have nothing left to lose will begin to commit acts of violence;

* People will begin to revolt against taxes; and

* We’re going into a depression, not a recession.

Listen to the entire interview by clicking on these video links: Part One and Part Two.

Buckle up, America! Looks like we’re in for a bumpy ride.

1 posted on 10/16/2009 4:05:27 PM PDT by BobMcCartyWrites
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To: BobMcCartyWrites

Gerald Celente has been a frequent guest on Coast to Coast AM with George Noory, and has been making the commericial real estate crash claim for about three years now. He may be right, but his dire claims aren’t something new.


2 posted on 10/16/2009 4:09:53 PM PDT by SpaceBar
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To: BobMcCartyWrites
We evil "speculators" have known about this for over a year.

Ka-friggin-boom!


Frowning takes 68 muscles.
Smiling takes 6.
Pulling this trigger takes 2.
I'm lazy.

3 posted on 10/16/2009 4:11:17 PM PDT by The Comedian (Evil can only succeed if good men don't point at it and laugh.)
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To: BobMcCartyWrites

As I perused the post I was thinking, “This guy needs to listen to Gerald Celente.” Then I clicked on your video. :)


4 posted on 10/16/2009 4:11:27 PM PDT by RobRoy (The US today: Revelation 18:4)
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To: BobMcCartyWrites

Will this be before or after the second mortgage debacle on over-appraised homes is discussed and addressed?


5 posted on 10/16/2009 4:13:21 PM PDT by Toespi
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To: The Comedian

Yeah, I’ve been getting Seeking alpha alerts for a couple years now. This has already taken longer to come than many expected, but It was the above the fold story in the Seattle times today (about Seattle commercial in particular).

It’s finally unfolding as the doomers said it would. They didn’t time it precisely, but they were not all that far off either. The big question is, will it actually have more impact than the residential RE collapse?


6 posted on 10/16/2009 4:13:42 PM PDT by RobRoy (The US today: Revelation 18:4)
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To: BobMcCartyWrites

Commercial real estate has already been marked down 50% by everyone, before any sales or refinancings even happen. So it is already baked into the pie.


7 posted on 10/16/2009 4:16:49 PM PDT by proxy_user
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To: RobRoy
I saw my first shrinkwraped condo building in Seattle last month.
8 posted on 10/16/2009 4:18:13 PM PDT by razorback-bert (We used to call them astronomical numbers. Now we should call them economical numbers.)
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To: BobMcCartyWrites

So Bob...given that you can forecast the market so well...you can make a killing selling short. Please give us the details...


9 posted on 10/16/2009 4:19:02 PM PDT by Drango (A liberal's compassion is limited only by the size of someone else's wallet.)
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To: SpaceBar

Yes, Gerald has been making that claim for years, it’s about time everyone else caught up! I believe SAVAGE made the same claim and others did as well, months and months and months ago, this is nothing new for those of us who stay informed!


10 posted on 10/16/2009 4:22:04 PM PDT by rockabyebaby (We are sooooooooooooooooooooo screwed!)
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To: The Comedian

I think I may have finally figured out where I’ve seen you before...”The Village People”?


11 posted on 10/16/2009 4:23:47 PM PDT by bricklayer
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To: BobMcCartyWrites

There are many more, and more timely Celente video’s now.


12 posted on 10/16/2009 4:25:43 PM PDT by RobRoy (The US today: Revelation 18:4)
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To: BobMcCartyWrites

The more they promote this kind of nonsense, the more likely it is to happen.


13 posted on 10/16/2009 4:32:05 PM PDT by Marysecretary (GOD IS STILL IN CONTROL!)
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To: BobMcCartyWrites

Celente’s time table is off. He admits that. Not to detract from his trends analysis and prediction, he is stumped by the fact that the American people are very patient compared to the European farmers and workers who would be in the streets by now. He also points out that many of his predictions are delayed because the government and Wall Street are using very creative financial schemes to delay the inevitable. This is the “wild card” in his analysis. Good news for us, is the delay means we have more time to prepare our family, street and small town for the coming crisis (think Sarah Connors, John Connors, now it is our chance freepers to be the heros of the future). Remember, when Western Rome fell, alot of average Roman foot soldiers who would have died as nobodies became the new feudal lords that protected the locals.


14 posted on 10/16/2009 4:45:28 PM PDT by Fee (Peace, prosperity, jobs and common sense)
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To: Drango

I didn’t predict it, Drango. Celente did. Ask him.


15 posted on 10/16/2009 4:47:38 PM PDT by BobMcCartyWrites (BobMcCarty.com, Bob McCarty Writes)
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To: Marysecretary
"The more they promote this kind of nonsense, the more likely it is to happen."

Your choice of words leads be to question the depth of your understanding of commercial real estate financing.

16 posted on 10/16/2009 4:48:29 PM PDT by An Old Man (Use it up, Wear it out, Make it do, or Do without.)
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To: razorback-bert

“I saw my first shrinkwraped condo building in Seattle last month. “

Are you sure that wasn’t Christo at work?


17 posted on 10/16/2009 4:48:53 PM PDT by Kenny500c
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To: bricklayer
I think I may have finally figured out where I’ve seen you before...”The Village People”?

I understand the "gay" lifestyle leads to a lot of anonymous liaisons, boylayer. But I ain't one of 'em.

Straighten up and fly right.


Frowning takes 68 muscles.
Smiling takes 6.
Pulling this trigger takes 2.
I'm lazy.

18 posted on 10/16/2009 5:07:44 PM PDT by The Comedian (Evil can only succeed if good men don't point at it and laugh.)
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To: Drango

With this forecast, what is the best way to capitalize on this? Which stock/s? Which funds?


19 posted on 10/16/2009 5:44:32 PM PDT by Frohickey
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To: RobRoy
The big question is, will it actually have more impact than the residential RE collapse?


20 posted on 10/16/2009 5:46:07 PM PDT by The Comedian (Evil can only succeed if good men don't point at it and laugh.)
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To: Frohickey

Beats me....I don’t believe the doom and gloom. But if you did, call a broker and tell him you want to sell “short” on of the commercial real estate stocks. I think RWR is a fund that represents (reflects?) the REIT industry.

Then you have to market time and guess on a time period. Good luck with that.


21 posted on 10/16/2009 5:53:16 PM PDT by Drango (A liberal's compassion is limited only by the size of someone else's wallet.)
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To: Kenny500c

It was just plain vanilla wrap, no colors.

It took me a few seconds to realize just what I was looking at.


22 posted on 10/16/2009 7:13:18 PM PDT by razorback-bert (We used to call them astronomical numbers. Now we should call them economical numbers.)
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To: The Comedian

Easy fella...easy. We’ve got to keep a sense of humour in times like these.


23 posted on 10/16/2009 7:23:04 PM PDT by bricklayer
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To: An Old Man

I’m talking about people’s words. You can curse or bless a situation spiritually by the way you speak about it. You can bless or curse a person in the same way. This is a spiritual matter. The more you talk negatively about something, the more it’s apt to happen. I believe God can turn things around so I try not to look at my circumstances in a negative light.


24 posted on 10/16/2009 8:01:55 PM PDT by Marysecretary (GOD IS STILL IN CONTROL!)
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To: BobMcCartyWrites

Yep, Obama is just holding it off until after the congressional elections..........


25 posted on 10/16/2009 8:31:41 PM PDT by Freddd (CNN is not credible.)
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To: Marysecretary

I compare the world of the last year (and the US specifically) to Berlin of 1945. Life goes on, but there is unease. The unease gets worse. People eventually are building barricades of fences, furniture, and chunks of demolished buildings against the soviets they know are coming.

Then one day you start hearing guns in the distance. They get louder. After a few days, your own German troops start filtering in, many or most wounded. The guns get louder.

Then one day, you look down the street and see a Soviet tank turn the corner, stop, fire, and take out the building right next to you.

We are in the “the guns are getting louder” phase, but make no mistake, the “tank coming around the corner” day is coming. And as Celente said, it will almost certainly be before Christmas, or shortly after.

Have you noticed you don’t hear about California’s woes any more? It did NOT get better and is only getting worse, faster. But nothing but crickets from the MSM.

We are living in interesting times.


26 posted on 10/17/2009 4:56:16 AM PDT by RobRoy (The US today: Revelation 18:4)
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To: Drango

Unfortunately, short selling requires more precise timing. You could be absolutely correct, but off by a very short time period, and lose your shirt.


27 posted on 10/17/2009 4:59:06 AM PDT by RobRoy (The US today: Revelation 18:4)
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To: BobMcCartyWrites

I swear I am seeing ghost towns appear overnight because of the empty shuttered buildings that are growing more common.

Another stage of the destruction of America appears to be proceeding according to Obamas plans.

My breaking point may happen when my income is taken away from me to pay for socialized health care.


28 posted on 10/17/2009 5:11:40 AM PDT by Eye of Unk ("If there must be trouble, let it be in my day, that my child may have peace." T. Paine)
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To: razorback-bert

Strange indeed.

Seems to me like it would trap moisture inside and lead to mold growth.


29 posted on 10/17/2009 8:53:15 AM PDT by Kenny500c
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To: RobRoy

Yes, we are. It’s the best of times and the worst of times. As all of this goes on in the physical, however, God will work in the spiritual and those who put their faith and trust in Him will have a peace that passes all understanding. I believe people will call upon the Lord in all this turmoil and be saved. I won’t say it doesn’t scare me somewhat because it does. I don’t like change. I fear for my children and their families, but as my tagline says, “God is still in control.” I pray for America more and more. Love, M


30 posted on 10/17/2009 8:23:35 PM PDT by Marysecretary (GOD IS STILL IN CONTROL!)
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