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SARAH PALIN'S CERTAIN PATH TO ELECTION IN 2012
http://recovering-liberal.blogspot.com/ ^ | Wednesday, December 9, 2009 | M.Joseph Sheppard

Posted on 12/13/2009 11:28:53 PM PST by meadsjn

SARAH PALIN'S CERTAIN PATH TO ELECTION IN 2012

The McCain/Palin team were faced with almost every possible impediment to victory.Number one,and perhaps the key factor,was a media hugely,in fact obsessively in the can for Obama.Further,rather than as a corollary simply ignoring the GOP team the media embarked on a campaign of vilification perhaps unprecedented in recent electoral history-to the level in fact that any semblance of balance was destroyed.

Secondly,the Republican team were shouldered with the burden of an extremely unpopular President,so unpopular that mechanisms were found to keep both Bush and Cheney from the nominating convention.

Thirdly,and perhaps the final straw,the campaign was hit when the economy succumbed to a massive financial panic with the ensuing need for immediate,massive and unpopular emergency measures which,whatever their validity,pleased no one.

Of course there were things done during the campaign which might have been done better (as is the case with any campaign) e.g. "suspending" the campaign at the height of the financial crisis,McCain's handling of the bailout and of course his staff's handling of Palin's activities.Also,and something I very much agree with Palin about,the campaign was reticent about raising "legitimate questions" about Obama's past and associations.

However,I do not believe these sundry items,if handled differently,would have made enough of a difference to have changed the eventual outcome-a state or two might have been saved at best.

Thus,with a grossly biased media supporting a candidate of unique background with a message of hope and change,a highly unpopular administration,an economic crisis of unprecedented proportions since 1929 and the usual campaign mishaps the fact that McCain/Palin won 22 states with 173 electoral votes of the 270 required to be elected (popular vote totals do not have final bearing on who wins)the GOP team did remarkably well.So well that a solid basis for victory in 2012 has been put in place.

The following two states were lost by under 1%.North Carolina 15 electoral votes lost by 0.4% and Indiana 11 EV 0.9%. Nebraska 1 EV 1.2% (The GOP won Nebraska's four other EV's). At the next level Florida's 27 EV's were lost by 2.5% and Ohio's 20 by 4.0% and at the highest level for this exercise Virginia's 13 EV's by 6.3% and Colorado's 9 EV's by 8.5%.

All these states were won by Bush in 2004 and only lost in 2008 in the most difficult of electoral circumstances which,with Obama no longer the symbol of hope and change, will not be repeated.It would take just a small movement against the sitting party to return most of these states to their historic place in the red column

Read more ...


TOPICS: Government; Politics
KEYWORDS: 2012; election; electoral; mccain; palin; sarahpalin
Some excellent electoral analysis for 2012.
1 posted on 12/13/2009 11:28:53 PM PST by meadsjn
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To: meadsjn

Except that she won’t get elected and we will be stuck with Obama for 4 more years.

The MSM will STILL be in the can for Obama.

Young people don’t read and listen to Jon Stewart, etc.

The Dems will pull a rabbit out of their hat that will guarantee Dem victory in the combined Presidential/Congressional elections.

The Republicans only campaign message is fiscal responsibility, which they weren’t under Bush/Frist/Hastert.

That is why we are screwed in the long run. Even our own leaders betrayed us in the Republican Party,

And Palin will guarantee a victory for Obama. You are the same people who stayed home when McCain ran and you will pick Palin and the moderates will stay home or vote for Obama.


2 posted on 12/13/2009 11:44:25 PM PST by whitedog57
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To: meadsjn

Well, then, that was easy.


3 posted on 12/13/2009 11:45:13 PM PST by period end of story (Give me a firm spot, and I will move the world.)
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To: whitedog57
I think 2010 will tell us allot. If conservatives don't take control of the house obumber will have achieved that change he's been lying about. If we win the house in 2010, well then all bets are off.
4 posted on 12/13/2009 11:53:12 PM PST by JoSixChip (It's better to die on your feet than live on your knees.)
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To: whitedog57

I believe she’ll run, and that she’ll get elected, with or without the support of the RINOs.


5 posted on 12/13/2009 11:53:54 PM PST by meadsjn (Sarah 2012, or sooner)
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To: meadsjn

Me too, Sarah will run, she will win, and RINO’s like Mitt will cry.


6 posted on 12/13/2009 11:55:26 PM PST by HerrBlucher (Jail Al Gore and the Climate Frauds!)
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To: whitedog57

Well, I guess we should all go home, then.


7 posted on 12/13/2009 11:58:19 PM PST by Future Snake Eater ("Get out of the boat and walk on the water with us!”--Sen. Joe Biden)
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To: HerrBlucher
MUST READ: HERE IS THE GAME PLAN IN ACTION ---- TEA/GOP WORKS - ALL STATES MUST FOLLOW NEVADA'S LEAD ON THIS. THEY HAVE PROVEN IT WORKS
8 posted on 12/13/2009 11:59:43 PM PST by meadsjn (Sarah 2012, or sooner)
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To: meadsjn

The electorate in 2012, after having been sold a bill of goods in 2008, will not vote for another hope and change candidate. Cutting taxes, holding back spending, re-tasking and eliminating federal agencies and bureaus, getting the government out of people’s lives will be what they vote for. They will even vote for it in California and New York if someone like Sarah is able to sell it.

Looking at the next election in terms of increasing Republican votes by 3 or 4 percent in a few states will not get the job done. In order to effect the changes needed to reverse the trend to socialism, to achieve a balanced budget, we will need a landslide, not a squeaker. Sarah Palin has started in the places where a few votes will put those states in our camp, but she will need to go head to head in those liberal states where the economy is bad telling them what their elected officials have been doing to them and showing them a path to get back on track. I think she will do that.


9 posted on 12/14/2009 12:19:50 AM PST by excopconservative
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To: meadsjn

I have a feeling Sarah is going to take the “king maker” route. She can be one powerful woman if every conservative is asking for her help. Plus, she could be the ONE PERSON who singlehandly gets rid of all RINO’s.


10 posted on 12/14/2009 12:35:18 AM PST by Terry Mross (Is it racist if it's true?)
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To: excopconservative; Terry Mross
People are just getting started reading her book, and will be lending copies and buying copies for Christmas gifts. I finished one copy this weekend, and have someone waiting to borrow it. We have four other copies that are being read, loaned, or given as gifts.

2010 is very important, from bottom to top.

11 posted on 12/14/2009 12:49:50 AM PST by meadsjn (Sarah 2012, or sooner)
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To: whitedog57
The MSM will STILL be in the can for Obama.”

And how is that “MSM being in the can for Obama” working out for 0bama then?

Rasmussen: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (-19)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2406559/posts

The Dems will pull a rabbit out of their hat that will guarantee Dem victory in the combined Presidential/Congressional elections”

Where was this wonderful “rabbit” in New Jersey and Virginia last month?
Didn't the Dimwits get clobbered but good in both states?

And Palin will guarantee a victory for Obama”

With the current very high level of anti-goverment anger in the country, Sarah Palin is the one candidate that guarantees that 0bozo will lose.

12 posted on 12/14/2009 1:30:51 AM PST by SmokingJoe
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To: meadsjn

What I find interesting here is this may very well happen. Sarah is on the ascendancy, while the opposite is true for 0bama. The libs, their media accomplices and the RINOs have emptied their guns on her, yet here she is, weathering the storm and standing tall. Between what’s been actually true and the stuff the lib-media-RINO complex has manufactured, one would be hard-pressed to find sh*t to throw at her. Meanwhile, her approval numbers rise as she criss-crosses the country with a positive conservative message.

The “experience” line the libs use against her is hollow. She had experience long before Boy Zero gave up “organizing” communities.

If (and this is a BIG IF) enough of the country continues to awaken from its kool-aid - induced stupor and realizes what actually works to move the nation forward and keeps us strong, we could find Sarah Palin giving a victory speech on the night of the first Tuesday of November 2012. Boy Zero’s concession speech will be the only one I will relish hearing. Imagine it: “I have, ... uh .. just ... uh ... called Gov. Palin to ... uh ... congratulate her on her ...uh... great and successful campaign tonight.”


13 posted on 12/14/2009 2:50:31 AM PST by ScottinVA (The arrogance of this Congress is staggering. November 2010 can't get here quickly enough.)
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To: whitedog57
The MSM will STILL be in the can for Obama.

Yes, the MSM, which draws dozens and dozens of viewers across the nation, is indeed in the can for 0bama...

..as if that mattered anymore.

14 posted on 12/14/2009 2:54:29 AM PST by ScottinVA (The arrogance of this Congress is staggering. November 2010 can't get here quickly enough.)
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To: meadsjn

Forget Palin for president. It’s a stupid idea.
Palin will rouse supporters and get them out to vote. She is not presidential material.


15 posted on 12/14/2009 4:39:25 AM PST by Leftism is Mentally Deranged
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To: Leftism is Mentally Deranged

Wait, wasn’t that the exact words Hillary Clinton said of Obama..’he’s not Presidential Material’.....


16 posted on 12/14/2009 5:02:27 AM PST by Freddd (CNN is not credible.)
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To: whitedog57

I think I’ll take my chances with Sarah Palin.

If we manage to fail with her at the helm, then you can be certain that conservatism as a viable political philosophy is dead in America.

And the same can be said of winning with the likes of romney, huckabee or their ilk....


17 posted on 12/14/2009 5:49:27 AM PST by Dr.Zoidberg (Warning: Sarcasm/humor is always engaged. Failure to recognize this may lead to misunderstandings.)
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To: meadsjn

A good, carefully thought out piece....there are also a few more things working in Palin’s favor...she should have a fairly easy path to the nomination..because the GOP primaries are all winner take all..Sarah’s support is solid..thus she can win all the delegates in a state with a mere plurality. More important is what will happen to the Dems. I’ve said here for several months that after the Dems take a beating in the 2010 elections..possibly losing control of one or both parts of Congress..look for Hillary to resign as Sec State, and announce that she will challenge Obama for the nomination in 2012...this is her last chance..remember, after the losses in NJ and VA, Bubba was the ONLY Dem, (in a quote that the MSM has ignored) who publicly said the “of course, the results were a reflecton on Obama”


18 posted on 12/14/2009 6:41:46 AM PST by ken5050 (Save the Earth..It's the only planet with chocolate!!!)
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To: ScottinVA

I have watched more video on youtube.com this week (stories I want to see) than I have watched TV in the past month. The TV industry which picks and chooses WHAT you see for “news” and WHEN you see it is going to lose more and more people to online news because of viewer impatience. Not only impatience with no control over the very limited set of what TV executives decide is worthy of their magic ability to transforn into “news”; but also the fact that the cable “news” channels recycle the same stuff over and over every half hour. TV is a medium that must now compete with much better sources for news.


19 posted on 12/14/2009 6:51:47 AM PST by wildandcrazyrussian
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To: Dr.Zoidberg
If we manage to fail with her at the helm, then you can be certain that conservatism as a viable political philosophy is dead in America.

Sarah Palin is not the last conservative in America.

20 posted on 12/14/2009 6:57:02 AM PST by Conservativegreatgrandma (Al Franken--the face of the third-party voters)
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To: Freddd

Please, tell us who you think is presidential material. What are their principles and what they have accomplished?


21 posted on 12/14/2009 8:40:47 AM PST by meadsjn (Sarah 2012, or sooner)
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To: Conservativegreatgrandma
She is the only conservative being mentioned as a potential 2012 candidate.

If you want to put forth your own secret conservative candidate, here and now is a good place and time to break the news.

No RINOs.

22 posted on 12/14/2009 8:45:13 AM PST by meadsjn (Sarah 2012, or sooner)
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To: meadsjn

The point is, it is early. I’ll wait to see who else shows an interest. It’s as simple as that. The hysteria I see here on FR actually is somewhat of a turn off to me. It’s like everyone is thinking with raw emotion instead of a reasonable analysis. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, if I support Palin it will be in spite of what I see here on FR and not because of it. It looks to me like her supporters are like teenage girls at a rock concert.


23 posted on 12/14/2009 9:06:02 AM PST by Conservativegreatgrandma (Al Franken--the face of the third-party voters)
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To: Conservativegreatgrandma

While you’re waiting, why don’t you buy or borrow a copy of “Going Rogue”, and read it? You’ll learn exactly who Sarah is, what her guiding principles are, how they were formed and implemented, and what her vision is for a government that follows the Constitution as the founders intended.


24 posted on 12/14/2009 9:42:56 AM PST by meadsjn (Sarah 2012, or sooner)
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To: meadsjn

Nothing is certain in elections.


25 posted on 12/14/2009 9:44:13 AM PST by Non-Sequitur
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To: meadsjn

I would if I thought there was anything new to learn but I don’t think there is the likelihood there is anything new. I think I do understand her and she’s on my possibility list but that’s it for now. I need to wait to see who else runs. Then I’ll decide.


26 posted on 12/14/2009 9:45:05 AM PST by Conservativegreatgrandma (Al Franken--the face of the third-party voters)
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To: Non-Sequitur
Nothing is certain in elections.

Or as we Catholics say, "Go in as a Pope, come out as a Cardinal."

27 posted on 12/14/2009 9:45:25 AM PST by dfwgator
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To: meadsjn

Sarah’s a hero,
0bama’s a zero!


28 posted on 12/14/2009 10:35:06 AM PST by gimme1ibertee ("In a time of universal deceit,telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act"-George Orwell)
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To: whitedog57

Well, I can see why with people like you on our team. The election is 3 years away and you have already conceded defeat and handed us another 4 years of the Marxist.
Please just get the hell out of the way and let the real Americans go about returning America to it’s former greatness.
In addition, if you find any more pessimistic quitters of your ilk please encourage them to jump overboard too and help us get rid the dead weight.
With all due respect of course ;-)
*sheesh* Who needs enemies and commies with R’s like this?


29 posted on 12/14/2009 10:42:31 AM PST by JerseyDvl (Dedicated Palinista who is suffering from an extreme case of Baracknaphobia. Severe reaction to BS!)
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To: meadsjn

Despite what Obama, Harry and Nancy do, the sheer grit and determination of the American people will cause the economy to get better in three years. Obama will take credit for it and the race will be close.

If the POTUS election was in 2010, Sarah would easily win. But 2012 is a long way off.

I want her to win, but she should focus on issues that will still show Obama’s weaknesses over the next three years.


30 posted on 12/14/2009 10:47:20 AM PST by Andy from Chapel Hill
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To: Conservativegreatgrandma

Last, no. But she is currently the only conservative with better than no chance of winning.

The fauxservatives currently hiding behind an (R) badge aren’t worth taking a well deserved crap on as far as their chances go.

If Sarah runs, we prosper, if she doesn’t run the odds are in favor of 4 more years of islamomarxist dominion.


31 posted on 12/14/2009 3:47:24 PM PST by Dr.Zoidberg (Warning: Sarcasm/humor is always engaged. Failure to recognize this may lead to misunderstandings.)
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To: whitedog57
Except that she won’t get elected and we will be stuck with Obama for 4 more years.
The Dems will pull a rabbit out of their hat that will guarantee Dem victory in the combined Presidential/Congressional elections.
The Republicans only campaign message is fiscal responsibility, which they weren’t under Bush/Frist/Hastert.
That is why we are screwed in the long run. Even our own leaders betrayed us in the Republican Party,
And Palin will guarantee a victory for Obama. You are the same people who stayed home when McCain ran and you will pick Palin and the moderates will stay home or vote for Obama.

On the contrary my friend. Sarah is the only one with the 3 legs necessary to secure the base (Fiscal Conservatism, Social Conservatism, and Strong National Defense/Foreign Policy). Plus she has appeal that will enable her to broaden the base. These thousands of people who waited all night in cold temperatures to see her for 5 seconds will no doubt canvas for her.

The moderates already have buyers remorse. Ever poll indicates this. Once they take a second look at Palin, she will win in a landslide.

Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur!

32 posted on 12/14/2009 3:57:10 PM PST by HapaxLegamenon
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