Great analysis and I don’t doubt a word of it. But I’m wondering what you think about my hypothesis in the original article - will the voters of West Virginia go against their traditional Democratic loyalties this time around because a vote for Machin is a vote for one more Senator that will support the Obama agenda?
NO Shelly did not take advantage of the “LBJ” loophole and will NOT run. She may NEVER run depending on WHO else does. She would need to run against a VERY liberal “new” Dem to beat them.
Raese cannot get more than 35%. Period. Ever. No matter HOW much “McCain spin he puts on it. He is known by the right wing in the GOP and a total rich cat by the poor Dems.
ZERO Cross over for him.
Now... someone ELSE could take advantage of the “effect” sweeping the nation. But know it is NOT Sweeping WV.
Manchin will LIE and be BELIEVED. Let that go.
Without 1 million PLUS in Mail all Negative and a relentless grassroots effort, no one can beat him.
But, politics is like football. The 10-6 Giants CAN beat the 19-0 Patriots.
And it IS possible to BEAT “Status Quo Joe”. But it is not John Raese. Rumors had it a State Senator Clark Barnes might run, but it looks like he knew he couldn’t raise money.
So that leaves only one other half serious guy and he has issues to overcome. Mac Warner.
Warners can raise money, but they don’t HAVE money. And they have connections but burned bridges from the primary for Governor a few years back.
If he could beat Raese in a Primary and NOT alienate the GOP moderates... he COULD in theory tie Manchin to Obama and get that 11% swing vote in a low turnout year and win.
But it is a Giants vs Patriots one in a thousand long long shot.
The real problem is the State Party. RINOS. Pro Aborts. Sodomites. And they HATE Warner’s clan more than they hate Dems. I dunno HOW you get past that with a Primary and only 4 weeks to do it.
Yeah, about that level.
God comes down and stops the bullets.
Anything less, and we get LIBERAL JOE for dot ever!!