Skip to comments.Whoa! Republicans Haven't Won Yet
Posted on 07/28/2010 3:14:18 AM PDT by Scanian
Let's not uncork the bubbly just yet. John Boehner better not be eyeing curtains for the Speaker's office. While all the signs point to substantial GOP gains in U.S. House and Senate contests this November, the fat lady hasn't sung. Two critical factors will determine if the GOP makes the sort of gains that give it control of the House and, possibly, the Senate. One is turnout. The other is a platform, which is the stuff of a mandate.
Where is the GOP's platform?
House Republicans have yet to announce a platform for the autumn campaign. That's not a good thing, as Fred Barnes, among a few others, has pointed out. It's conceivable that the November congressional elections will be a pure referendum on the majority Democrats. If that occurs, GOP candidates may be the recipients of a big gift: voters casting ballots for anyone but the incumbent, or in the case of open seats, anyone but the Democrat.
If voters are so riled and disgusted with the Democrats, Republicans may need only whistle Dixie and give voters a little two-step. But don't count on it -- not entirely. Covering bases is a very good thing to do in politics, electoral politics included. As campaigns move into crunch time (after Labor Day, but certainly in the October window), a good portion of the voting public will focus more intently on the choices for Congress. These voters may begin asking the question: "Just what do the candidates stand for?" And not just what they stand against.
No doubt, Republicans will make solid gains this November just by not being Democrats. But critical to putting the GOP in the majority may be independent voters who want candidates to articulate a forward-looking agenda. Being the "Party of No" has been an effective and necessary strategy for outgunned Republicans in the 111th Congress. A critical mass of voters, though, may evaluate the GOP on its ideas and ability to lead come January. These voters may prove the difference between a Speaker Boehner and another go at the Wicked Witch of the West, Nancy Pelosi.
Wisconsin Republican Paul Ryan has offered an excellent road map to get America back on track. But word out of Washington is that GOP leaders and strategists are squeamish about embracing it as an election-year platform. There's infighting among Washington Republicans about any road map.
The fear is that Ryan's plan isn't a happy pill. It's a realistic -- one can say mature -- approach to straightening out the mess the nation is in. Following the Ryan plan means that the nation would experience some short-term pain for long term gain. The thinking goes that voters in their heart of hearts really don't want straight talk or tough-minded remedies to the nation's ills.
Remember, though, that many of Washington's GOP leaders are the same ones who led Republicans off the cliff in the first decade of this century. Washington is the land of the insulated, the myopic, the inbred, and the establishment-bound. Voters are in no mood for happy talk or happy pills. Democrat-bashing will go only so far. Sure, most voters are angry at Democrats for economic policies that don't work, for too much government, outrageous spending and debt, and for broken promises about tax hikes (coming this January, compliments of Mr. Obama and his loony lefties). But voters are in a no-nonsense mood, and they're starved for commonsense polices and leadership. Americans were misled in 2008 by Mr. Obama, who posed as a centrist Democrat only to reveal himself as left-winger. Americans don't want to be burned again.
Voters have a right to know what the GOP plans to do if it captures majorities in the House and Senate this November. Mandates aren't just nice; they're critically important. A platform that earns voter buy-in means no surprises when that platform is translated into a legislative agenda. Truth in advertising reduces buyer remorse.
The years 2010 and 2012 are merely opportunities for the GOP to reclaim the loyalties of a majority of Americans. Voters seem willing to throw out the bums and give the GOP another go. For the GOP's own good, and the nation's, Republicans need to lay out an action plan. And come January, assuming at least a House majority, Republicans need to hit the ground running based on the plan they give voters. But that's a topic for another day -- provided the GOP makes the gains.
Will something on the order of Paul Ryan's plan attract or repel voters? Add to the GOP's vote totals or lessen them? Gut instinct is that voters will welcome straight talk and solutions-driven proposals. With the nation facing dire economic problems, with job losses high and mounting, with families to raise and bills to pay, Americans want smart ways out the nation's economic dilemma consistent with less government and more freedom. The electorate is ready to be engaged as adults.
Turnout is another caveat when it comes to winning elections, especially midterms. There's no such thing as a reliable turnout model. Pollsters always try to project turnout, but they'd admit that, at best, they're doing no more than educated guesswork. There are just too many variables that go into a person's decision to go vote -- or even vote by mail -- to make an accurate determination about turnout, much less break it out by candidate or party.
Right-thinking Americans should be encouraged by polling and trend lines that show the GOP beating the Democrats handily in generic congressional matchups. The nation's right track/wrong track numbers are lopsidedly wrong track, and that should cut heavily against Democrats. But turnout boils down to motivating your target voters to actually cast ballots. That takes organization and the right arguments.
The Democrats concede that they'll lose seats this November. But the magnitude of their losses counts, of course. With Democrats' backs to the wall, they'll do what they do best, and have begun to do already: fear-monger among their hardcore constituencies, namely minorities and liberals. Message: GOP success spells doom for them. Unions and Democratic shills in black and Hispanic communities will be working overtime to whip up a Republican-hating frenzy. Will this effort succeed enough to blunt Republican gains in marginal or competitive districts and states? We'll know on election night.
Meanwhile, what's the GOP counter to get their target voters out? Does the GOP need only stoke the fear and disgust their voters have for Democrats and liberals? That fire is already burning hotly. To rev up turnout, what Republicans need is a road map for America's future, to borrow a phrase. Beyond the GOP's base voters, independents are critical and gettable, but they want to be gotten with smart ideas, determination, and courage. Whether the GOP embraces the Ryan plan itself, some amalgam -- that includes elements of Paul Ryan's tough, smart ideas -- is what's needed. Are Republicans shrewd enough to understand this? It's less than a 50-50 bet right now that they are.
Also, the Democratic party’s vote counting machine must be dismantled. The criminal, illegal and deceased must be purged from the voting lists
If Republicans win a majority in either or both houses there will be a full court press for two years about the mean ole Pubies, how they want granny to die in the street, and want children to die from starmvationb and won't keep throwing money down the rat hole of Social inSecurity.
With out real congressional leadership we would be better off being minority underdogs by a vote or two in both houses.
That will give us two solid years to PI$$ on Obozo's parade and belittle and besmirch every thing the dimmies do. We need to educate the American people and we need to get rid of Michael "Spineless" Steele and replace him with some one that is a true conservative. Steele want to be loved by his fellow Blacks rather than get the Conservative message out.
You’re correct, the Dems are in total-war mode and take no prisoners unless it is to emotionally torture them. People have been pleading with the Republicans to recognize the gravity of what the Dems intend and the seriousness with which they should be confronting them, but nothing ever seems to register in the GOP establishment. No offense to John Boehner, he is a fine and decent man but he is no war chief. He really doesn’t bring any fire in the belly and that is exactly what the American people need right now. They need a leader who firmly subscribes to our foundational principles, who has lived in the real world for at least 40 years, having to scrape by on the rules imposed by the ruling class and who both speaks and writes clearly and sensibly (though not necessarily charitably). He or she must bring that fire. Those who look like they might qualify are all outsiders: Ryan, Bachmann, Blackburn, Jindal, Palin. They carry no weight with the Party leaders. This has generally been the case in the Republican Party for as long as I can remember (and I can remember the 1964 convention, though only on TV). This is our problem: the only leaders we have with any kind of intentions are those out to remake the place to suit themselves and generate maximum personal profit, in power, prestige, authority and, oh yes, a ton of money to play with.
We need a Cincinnatus and we need that person now!
But word out of Washington is that GOP leaders and strategists are squeamish about embracing it as an election-year platform.
The GOP so much potential so little leadership.
Republicans will never win another election until the machinery at the ballot box is repaired. The democrats control the voting process and whether or not absentee ballots are even counted. They can also call on an army of dead voters to boost their numbers and if that doesn’t work there’s always ACORN.
Do not underestimate the socialists, they don’t play fair.
“With out real congressional leadership we would be better off being minority underdogs by a vote or two in both houses.”
I tend to agree. Enough votes to stop a lot of egregious Dhimmi legislation but minority status so that any effort by Obama to blame the Republicans for everything will ring rather hollow.
A bonus will be that there might be enough votes to dump Pelosi and Reid from their leadership positions.
Recent polls suggest that your scenario is exactly what will come to pass: maybe a 30 seat pickup in the House and 5-6 in the Senate.
Such a result will give the GOP its best chance to win back the WH in 2012.
Yep, Spot On. It is TIME.
If anyone is counting on John Boner to present anything remotely conservative they are delusional.
If Boner gets to be Speaker, Obama will be REELECTED in 2012.
Say HELL NO!
To these spineless encephalopods!
That's been my prediction as well. I think estimates of a 50-60 seat takeover are overblown.
I think they are going to roll out their 2010 version of “Contract With America” with a new name around Labor Day.
What was the Democrats platform in 2008, other than blame Bush?
To many progressives in the party leadership. If the republican party is to represent the small government conservative base, the party must be purged.
IMHO, the Dems made it clear to the youth and minority constituency that they would happily loot the system for their benefit. That is what "Hope and Change" meant in bald terms. The Media, no less Fox than any other, studiously looked the other way and pretended that the suggestion was the Dems intended to fix things in some kind of constructive way. We knew then and most everybody else has now been forcibly informed that they meant to fix things like Tony Soprano fixed rackets in fictional New Jersey (or, okay, Jon Corzine fixed them in the real place).
The "blame Bush" thing was a red herring, which is why it is not working now (not that it's that much further along: ordinary folk don't think in linear terms, it's always 'now' to them).
That is the ulimate goal.
Thanks for playing and nice try American Thinker.
Paul Ryan is never afraid to go up against Chris Matthews and expose him as the spitting, drooling moron he is every time he appears.
Boehner, Boehner, hmmm, I have heard that name before but never actually seen the guy. Wasn’t he on the back of a milk carton with “have you seen me?” written under it?
The first two I have no problems with the latter, my congressman, John Boehner is useless.
Vote Republican - They Suck Less.
It will take a little more than cockiness and depending on past mid-term results to get the necessary seats this year.
Every election cycle the Dems raise more money and recruit assorted ghetto skanks to go around passing it out where it will do the most good(”walking around money”), more union punks and ACORN types to push, shove, bus, or drag apathetic voters to the polls, and amazing expertise at winning with every type of hanky-panky and downright fraud imaginable.
How can anybody think it will be a snap to displace a machine like that? A machine whose members regard government and politics the way we regard the air we breathe? Most of us have other priorities like family, work, business, or faith. But not the fanatics of the left. So many of them act like they must win for their lives to have any meaning.
Fighting an automatic weapon with a handgun wouldn’t be much harder.
They don’t have a platform, they have a machine.
Half of their voters wouldn’t know an issue if one bit them on the ass.
How is Boehner “useless”?
How? Because if it ain’t close, they can’t cheat. Part of the Democrat’s playbook is to constantly repeat that Republicans can’t win because the ‘Rat juggernaut is just too enormous. Just like the the USSR did right up to the day it collapsed (with help from the NYT).
He supposed to be a leader. He has not had an original idea since he joined congress. He’s inarticulate on top of that. Right now he’s hiding in a tanning booth hoping that he’ll be leader in January, that his plan.
On the other hand you have Paul Ryan stepping up to the plate at every chance he gets to articulate a plan to get us on a solid economic footing.
I didn’t say they’d win just by cheating, I said cheating was a part of their strategy. Mostly they count on a well-practiced ground game while the GOP largely depends on their people getting off their duffs and voting independently.
Organization is far more likely to succeed than an amorphous collection of allegedly outraged citizens.
The GOP has enough motivation to win maybe 30-35 House seats and 5-6 in the Senate. To go beyond that, they’ll need organizational tactics that they’ve never developed.
That’s not so bad, however. Falling short of congressional majorities will deny Obama a serious reason to whine about the GOP holding up all his crap socialistic legislation but it will likely result in Reid and Pelosi being voted out of their leadership positions.
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