Posted on 09/10/2010 8:56:33 AM PDT by PugetSoundSoldier
STAMFORD, Conn., September 10, 2010 — The worldwide mobile operating system (OS) market will be dominated by Symbian and Android, as the two OSs will account for 59.8 percent of mobile OS sales by 2014, according to Gartner, Inc.
...
Gartner predicts that by 2014, open-source platforms will continue to dominate more than 60 percent of the market for smartphones. Single-source platforms, such as Apple's iOS and Research In Motion's OS, will increase in unit terms, but their growth rate will be below market average and not enough to sustain share increase. Windows Phone will be relegated to sixth place behind MeeGo in Gartner's worldwide OS ranking by 2014.
(Excerpt) Read more at gartner.com ...
Android ready to leap from number 3 (behind Symbian and RIM) to number 2, in just the next few months.
WOW - that was FAST! :)
Wow, everyone else is flat or declining.
This might be why Apple made the change on the C# running on its OS.
I am baffled at the money that MSFT is throwing into the Win7 moble OS. I think this is a waste of time; they missed the boat, by a long ways.
IMHO, in 3 years the market will settle into
30% iOS, especially if Verizon, T-Mobile and others go with Apple.
30% Android - the Open OS is going to plauge Apple. This will be augmented by developers who create a great game, then export their software to run on Android.
20% Research in Motion (RIM) - the Blackberry is the only accepted Gov’t smartphone, and the inertia that Blackberry has in the Industrial market is going to be tough to break.
This leaves 20% for Symbian, WebOS, Microsoft and other niche’ players.
Yeah, Apple completely backpedaled on their “no interpreters running on iOS!” meme. I thought it was for security? I guess security doesn’t matter when you’re getting steamrolled by that upstart OS called Android.
Look at the link. Gartner predicts a different market shakeout in 3 years.
Symbian 30.2
Android 29.6
Research In Motion 11.7
iOS 14.9
Windows Phone 3.9
Other 9.6
My guess is that Microsoft is eyeing Symbian overseas. Android is also a big player in Asia. In Asia, you really need multi-lingual support, and Windows Phone 7 excels at it (I’ve played with it, inside Microsoft’s Shanghai offices - experience is seamless when configured as Chinese or English or German - the 3 languages I tried).
Symbian also gets the multi-language support right. Android still has a way to go. iOS is pretty poor, in this regard.
I think Gartner is pretty much spot-on. Symbian has a MASSIVE lead right now (40%+ of the market), and that will take a few years to overcome. Android’s been accepted and used by every phone maker save Apple and Nokia (both of whom are losing marketshare to Android).
RIM is dropping, and as Android picks up more and more integration with enterprise solutions, it’ll lose even more (I use my Android tablet and my WinMo phone and my calendar and contacts on both are automatically synchronized between my Outlook app and the Exchange servers and iCal servers of my clients - it just works).
My guess, for 2014:
Android: 35%
Symbian: 30%
Win Phone 7: 12%
iOS: 12%
RIM: 10%
Others: 1%
Symbian and Win Phone 7 will be predominantly on the strength of Asian sales (ultra-slick support for Mandarin, Thai, Hindi, etc - not bad markets when you consider half the world’s population lives in China, India, or the countries between them). Android takes the lead, and iOS becomes a player really only in the US (much like most Apple products - a player in the US only).
Thus, in 2 years; one way or another Apple will be available in both markets (AT&T and Verizon - and T-Mobile, ect). The cost of entry will be high - $199 for the iPhone 5 if histrorical prices remain consistent. IMHO, a great many Verizon users will hop on the Apple platform due to the phone's superiority, but the price will impede a certain number.
However, in year 3, the iPhone 6 will be out - and the $199 price for the iPhone 6 will mean that the iPhone 5 will drop to $99. This lower cost, and the easy availablilty of apps from iTunes (plus whatever other goodies Apple continues to add to the iPhone) will make the iOS more desireable.
Gartner's approximateion of 14.9% seems surprisingly pessimistic - given that the PRESENT marketshare for Apple is 28%
IMHO, the area where Symbian excells is in the basic (dumb) cell phone. You know, where a camera and very basic browsing is about all you get. I think the number of these phones will drop, as LTE combines both voice and data into a seamless data-stream. There will cease to be a 'penalty' for a data-plan and the apps will continue to tempt those new customers to opt for the neat stuff (weather, theater show times, gas prices, where did I park my car?).
I think LTE is going to be a big game-changer. I can't speak to the foreign language support as I only speak English (and even that skill is not as good as it should be). But, you point is well taken.
There is a lot of inertia to overcome with RIM. There are a lot of corporate systems that have been built around RIM for secure emails, messages and phone calls. This is going to take a while to dismantle, and RIM is certainly going to try to grow this segment.
I do think Android will continue to grow - but the problem with Android is the Open Source and loose management of the OS. Apple is 'safe' in that because it's a 'closed garden' viri and malware is screened. Android has already had some malware and ID theft issues. Unless Google tightens the reigns, this insecurity could be their demise. No one wants their credit card numbers stolen by their phone.
Personally, I really do like Android. I think Google really has a winning product - they just need to put some controls on it - which is pretty much anti-Open Source.
But, you bring up some very good points with the open language support in emerging markets. How many smartphones will be sold in China and India. IMHO, these cultures are more interested in functionality than status. Apple's main thrust is that their phone is an elegant, functional and status symbol. You can get similar performance off a cheaper alternative phone - and IMHO that's where India and China will focus.
It's going to be intersting; It appears we are within range on Android and RIM; but have exchanged Symbian and iOS.
You bring up logical points but I’d imagine Gartner considered all of those factors. They usually do.
The most likely scenario for iPad sales this year is 4.2 million units," says Gartner analyst Angela McIntyre
Source dated May 5, 2010.
Research firm iSuppli raised its prediction for the number of iPads that Apple will ship this year from 7.1 million to 12.9 million.
Source dated July 20, 2010
300% error in 2 months. At least they didn't predict it would fail monumentally. I expect that this number will be adjusted upward again, as Apple has increased production to 3 million units a month as of Oct 4th. I was one of the lucky pre-orders who received it a day earlier than promised. The polish put into that product cannot be understated. I use it daily, and am amazed by the amount of thought that went into it.
Those numbers are US-only, right? Worldwide, Symbian commands 40% of the Smartphone market. RIM is second at about 25%. Android is about tied with iOS, and is continuing to gain marketshare.
iOS will end up being a player in the US only, probably retaining a domestic number 2 spot to Android.
The Gartner report is about total worldwide sales, and it shows that Symbian IS the dominant Smartphone OS worldwide. Remember, Nokia is a bit-player in the US, but they ship 110 million phones A MONTH; in 10 days, Nokia will ship the same number of phones as ever sold by Apple. They’re a MONSTER overall.
US-centric, yeah Apple will stay a bit higher, in 2nd or 3rd place (behind Android, and maybe behind RIM). Worldwide, though, it will be Symbian and Android battling it out for the lead.
In addition to the iPhone, Nokia faces growing competition in the U.S. from phones that operate on Google's Android software. Nokia has refused to adopt Android for its own devices, preferring to stick with Symbian, which developers have criticized as outdated and clunky. The problem, they say, is that the Symbian has been a more difficult and time consuming platform. Symbian takes 15 months or more to master versus less than six months for Android, according to strategy firm VisionMobile. Developers also say that their applications sales from Nokia's Ovi Store generate less revenue than Apple and Google's application stores.
Above from the WSJ this morning.
I do think Android will continue to grow
Android has already passed iOS in the US, in terms of new sales. iOS is now in 4th place worldwide, and falling (in terms of marketshare) - behind Symbian, RIM, and Android.
- but the problem with Android is the Open Source and loose management of the OS.
That's what allowed Windows to explode and dominate - making the OS and API open for anyone to buy and use and build upon. It's a winning strategy; closed systems lose every time.
Apple is 'safe' in that because it's a 'closed garden' viri and malware is screened.
Really? In just the last few months we've seen multiple security holes (ACE - arbitrary code execution - holes) like the jailbreakme.com one which completely rooted and reloaded the ROM in your iPhone from simply visiting a website, and "malware" like the flashlight app that was really a WIFI router (and was sold in the App Store until users tattled on it - completely violated Apple's App Store rules, and their "screening" didn't catch it at all).
In fact, Apple once again patched a bunch of ACE holes just yesterday. There's a reason that iOS is jailbroken as soon as new versions are released - it's very vulnerable to ACE exploits which is how it's jailbroken.
Android has already had some malware and ID theft issues.
And those would be?
Unless Google tightens the reigns, this insecurity could be their demise. No one wants their credit card numbers stolen by their phone.
How is it worse than iPhone? And in fact, most companies like to have control over their assets and platforms; Apple's attempt to lock-you-in to their own little restricted garden and app tools doesn't help.
Windows owns the desktop/laptop market because it's APIs are public, and control and use of the OS is unrestricted, and versions are supported for more than 3-4 years. Long term support for even 15-20 year old products (I run a few Win95-only apps on Win 7 x64 without a problem) and the open-use nature of the OS wins every time. Create what you want, in the language you want, for distribution as you see fit, without any interference from Microsoft.
Android has the same freedom, and you even get the source code so - if you're an enterprise - you can make changes as desired (like full encryption of everything - including communications - if you want), and support it forever, since you have the source code.
Extensibility and support are critical to the enterprise, and Android excels at that compared to iOS.
Fully agree! Nokia’s insistence on a closed, controlled platform has stifled it’s growth. It has the huge marketshare in spite of its limitations, not because of them.
Nokia is losing share, and unless they get rolling quickly with Meego or Android (and quit their fascination with Symbian), they’re going to fall behind Android.
Knowing several Finns, my guess is that they will not make a serious push at Meego or Android, will continue to focus on Symbian (their “own” OS), and cede top-spot to Android. And probably Samsung will take over as the largest phone maker in the world, at that point (Samsung being the ultimate mercenary in the phone market - they’ll support any OS out there, if they’re allowed to).
Well, it’s not over, Nokia’s got itself a new CEO today, dude from Canada.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703597204575482902836750116.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTTopStories
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