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THE COMING WAVE (An interview with Mother Abigail - The Conclusion)
FluTrackers ^ | 10-12-10 | Original Work

Posted on 10/13/2010 5:16:24 PM PDT by James Oscar

This is the final chapter in my series of interviews with the enigmatic Mother Abigail.

It has been the most challenging project of my career. It has also been the most rewarding.

I hope that you enjoy the four works and I will briefly recap the first three for those who are just joining us.

TOPICS: Health/Medicine; Science
KEYWORDS: motherabigail; virology
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
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Winds are hard
To recreate
Once cast

1 posted on 10/13/2010 5:16:27 PM PDT by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar


July 6, 2009


(An Interview With Mother Abigail)

I came in from the wilderness, a creature void of form.
"Come in," she said, "I'll give you…”

Bob Dylan


While researching the New Media, I became fascinated with the development of the “Flu Blog”. It seemed to represent – not only the direction – but the form and structure of the changing media in the Internet Age.

My original thesis was to write a series of articles detailing, as thoroughly as possible, the creation of the “Flu Blog” – from inception to mainstream assimilation.

However, as often happens in war and creativity, events overtook the plan.

My derailment occurred in the following manor:

By December of 2006 I had researched, compiled and databased every conceivable factoid relating to the early years of flu blogging. I felt ready to publish my first article and on the second day of 2007 I started writing and soliciting feedback on a website called CurrentEvents.

I was very pleased with the finished product believing that both technically and factually I had established the main point of my thesis – control of the media was being altered forever and that the evolution was being driven from the bottom up.

Here is that article:




Every beginning is a consequence - every beginning ends some thing

(Paul Valery)

In February of 2003 newspapers, cable news and radio were the interface between the American public and breaking news. It had long been such.

No one set out to destroy the relevancy of these institutions.

Like so much change it just happened. Passion and thirst mixed with a witches blend of electronic gadgetry created a new paradigm.

A paradigm where power was snatched from the media elite and taken by the citizenry - and no one has ever looked back.

Until now.

MARCH 2003

The world was on the eve of war. Not the televised war of the First Gulf War, but the first internet war.

Many homes and offices were now wired to the net and the Internet was to become the CB of the 21st century. Far across the immense spectrum of the Internet - discussion nodes filled with speculation and rumor.

A very strange vibe was brewing.

A strange vibe indeed. This was March of 2003 - this was to be the time of change.

It began as little more than a few whispers among the cacophony of war talk. A post on the 13th here, a post on the 14th here.

The earliest and most followed post was placed on the 13th. Within three days, this thread had received a couple of hundred comments, as the severity of the situation became apparent.

It was now the Ides of March, and this story unfolds - for the transformation is about to begin.

In the strangest place.


As the concept of the "Discussion Forum" caught on across the growing Internet, a couple of standard formulas became the norm.

The first was a single poster copying and pasting a news article from the Main Stream Media and then adding comments. This early Blog form still exists today.

The second formula developed largely during the "Clinton Scandals".

Liberals and conservatives separated and started their own discussion forums where they would post an article from the Drudge Report or the New York Times and then proceed to beat it to death with comments.

There were a few science centered Blogs, but they also followed these same two formats. And they were out in the periphery - with few members and very few visitors.

No it was the mega sites where the action was - a huge group of diverse members, lots of visitor traffic and a stable infrastructure.

The elements were now all in place for the perfect storm.


This is the way the world ends Not with a bang, but a whimper

T. S. Eliot

It was the Ides of March, late in the night - on the hottest conservative forum on the Internet - that she appeared.

In an obscure section of that web site she posted a cryptically titled thread, made a comment about Ebola, a comment about God and then posted an advisory about a "worldwide health threat."

In a section that had seen only seven threads in the past seven days, she wove a strange, exotic and haunting thread for two days.

Then on the 17th of March she posted the first of 20 highly technical medical threads:

1. Precognition

2. Hong Kong Health Secretary calls for calm as SARS cases double, (83 up from 42 on Sunday)



5. Killer Virus (SARS) Identified

6. Seven victims of mystery pneumonia stayed on same floor of Hong Kong hotel

7. Guangdong doctor linked to SARS outbreak

8. President of the American Society of Microbiology on SARS - "Everything says it is airborne."


10. CDC increases SARS cases to 22 in U.S.


12. Causative agent of SARS virus isolated from lung tissue - test is reliably identifying cases

13. SARS cases on the rise in Canada, may be spreading even further, 12 people showing symptoms

14. VIETNAM NEW SARS HOT ZONE, U.S. Warns Citizens in Vietnam To leave

15. SARS cases on the rise in Canada, may be spreading even further, 12 people showing symptoms

16. Singapore - 740 people quarantined, 14 new cases on Monday, Hospitals close, SARS spreads

17. 37 In United States May Have SARS

18. SARS epidemic spreads in Taiwan, three other CDC officials have become ill.


20. Killer-flu a 'white terror': Expert, "It is the worst medical disaster I have ever seen.

21. Preliminary Clinical Description of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome

- and over the next eleven days guided both lay and professionals, transformed the web site, crushed the paradigm and changed the way we interface with breaking news forever.

Oh, and there is that strange aspect of her name.

Every literate person on the Web new and understood, not only what it meant, but the endless nuances that lay associated with that name, in this context.

She signed on as Mother Abigail.


Among the hundreds of posters and thousands of viewers on the Mother Abigail threads were; Doctors, Lawyers, Nurses, Pharmacists, Veterinarians and Health Care workers of every stripe.

It became apparent quite early that this was not to be the normal flu talk. This is an early post:

"Doug had an interesting observation in picking a Morbillivirus as a likely agent. Hendra and Nipah are both zoonotic and it might well be a mutant of the Paramyxoviridae family.

Symptoms are right.

"Just because I have had tooooo much coffee, I will mention that both Hendra and Nipah have been given their own genus (Henipavirus).

Henipavirus becomes the fourth genus within the Paramyxovirinae subfamily of the Paramyxoviridae family. The other genera within the subfamily are Rubulavirus, Morbillivirus and Respirovirus."

52 posted on 03/17/2003 10:49:23 PM PST by Mother Abigail"

And so it began.

Why was this different? Because local MD's discovered ProMed, because an army of netizens began searching every corner of our world for information, because citizens of other countries began translating information that would normally be missed - because the whole was larger than the sum of the parts.

One poster who tried to write about Mother Abigail soon after the incident, and was quickly banned, called it SARS Central.

Sounds right to me.

She hijacked a web site, created a forum for the "in depth" discussion of Virology, Taxonomy and Microbiology. But interactive.

And it is that interactivity that opened the flood gates. Now it was possible to monitor breaking news in a far off land, have experts opine on that news, react to their opinions and post information of your own.

NBC Nightly News was never going to be the same.

The "Flu Blog" was born.


Eleven days. From March the 15th to March the 26 she posted, wrote and guided. Then with the same grace and dignity that marked every word she ever wrote - she said goodby.

"It appears I have worked myself out of a job.

Many of you are now posting threads on SARS, and the information seems to be flowing in an accurate and timely manner.

So I will take this opportunity to thank all the posters for their hard work and diligence.

NOTE: I have tried to answer all the e-mails, except of course, the many that asked for personal information. Hope I was of some help

Stay Strong, Come and see me and - bring all your nice friends.......

20 posted on 03/26/2003 8:12:57 PM PST by Mother Abigail"

Some help indeed....

Mother Abigail had become, in the wink of an eye, the focal point for much praise and some derision. Then she was gone.

A year or so later she began posting, from time to time, on various web sites - always modest - never speaking of those days again.

She continues to this day.

2 posted on 10/13/2010 5:17:49 PM PDT by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar



I anticipated a flood of emails either disputing my research or my thesis. Ever confident in my work I eagerly prepared for the debate. For the next few months my yahoo mailbox was smoking – but the questions were not what I had envisioned. In fact, I could not have been more wrong.

The e-mails all asked the same questions and they were all about Mother Abigail. Did I know her? Who did she work for? Had I met her? Basically the same e-mail over and over again.

This pretty much let all the wind out of my sails for quite a while. Because the truth is that I knew nothing of her – had exchange a couple of brief “web-based” e-mails and although I had read every word she had ever written on the subject, my knowledge of the person was ZIP.

The only consistent trait of my personality, as several of my ex-wives will tell you, is that I have no great fidelity to any concept. So I fell back and reviewed my goals.

After a season of Tanqueray and tonic I decided to change my focus.


Via e-mail I asked MA if she would be willing to allow me to interview her and write an article about her. My operating paradigm at that time was that this lady was a seminal pioneer of the New Media and a scientist of serious reputation.

How naïve I was.

In the late summer of 2008 I was invited to visit her at her home on Lake Tahoe. It was a visit that would change my life.


The following is a summary of conversations that occurred from August 2008 until June of 2009. All the words are mine and mine alone. When I asked MA if she would like to edit my work or review it for errors – she declined. Prior to the final draft I asked MA for a quote and she declined but requested that I include her favorite poem which I did.

This first part of the interview is hundreds of posts long and is one of the most detailed scientific discussion of influenza (and a lot of other stuff) that you will ever see.

That being said, I believe it to a very interesting read and a rare insight into an exceptionally unique and gifted person.

Here is the direct URL: (You will need to be registered because this discussion was not on the public forum – but in the scientific discussion area).


Mother Abigail Interview Part #1

3 posted on 10/13/2010 5:18:57 PM PDT by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar


October 19th, 2009

3. How has her previous work held up to peer review


Her work with SARS speaks for itself. Not only did she create a new media device for information exchange, but her guiding help with health care workers during those troubling days is much commented on in the threads cited above.


In 2004 Mother Abigail, whose life work was with hemorrhagic fever, gave the following analysis of Ebola research. Where she pointed the finger at fruit bats as the reservoir species.

Just a quick synopsis of the current state of Ebola research.


Investigations into the outbreaks of Ebola in humans during the late 1990’s pointed to a link with great apes.

The origins of many of these epidemics could be traced to direct human contact with dead chimpanzees or gorillas, either through hunting bush meat or from handling carcasses found in the forest.

The index [first] cases were mainly hunters and transmission occurred by direct person-to-person contact.

We have identified at least 10 separate chains of transmission, each originating from one index case occurring between October 2001 and May 2003.

By analyzing the genetic material of the virus to see whether these outbreaks had resulted from multiple introductions of a single viral strain or separate introductions of several strains of Ebola it was discovered that:

(1) There were at least eight different strains of Ebola involved, showing that for this relatively short period under study the mode of transmission of the disease was more complex than previously imagined.

(2) Because Ebola is a genetically stable virus - unlike say influenza, which mutates rapidly - the fact that many strains are involved suggested that there have been multiple independent introductions of the virus from the reservoir species into apes and humans.

Different strains of Ebola virus may be widespread throughout the forests of central Africa, with simultaneous infection of great apes occurring from unknown natural hosts under particular but unknown environmental conditions.

Ebola outbreaks probably do not occur as a single outbreak spreading throughout the Congo basin as others have proposed but are due to multiple episodic infection of great apes.


The great unknown, of course, is the name of this reservoir species.

We aren’t near to identifying the animal but we have some ideas, in particular fruit bats.

We don’t have much evidence at all, just observations and ideas.

Both apes and fruit bats eat the same kind of food so it is not unreasonable to assume that they may come into close contact with one another at certain times of the year.

Ebola outbreaks in wild animals seem to occur at the beginning of the dry season. But no one has yet shown that it is possible to find Ebola virus in wild bats.

In South Africa a scientist succeeded in infecting fruit bats experimentally and he observed rapid development of the virus.

So although it is technically possible to infect fruits bats with Ebola, there is still no evidence that this is the mystery reservoir species.

Until this animal is found, the sole measure that we can take in predicting and preventing an Ebola outbreak in humans is to watch what is happening to gorillas and chimpanzees in the wild.

I wish there were better news.

57 posted on Monday, April 26, 2004 8:05:52 PM by Mother Abigail;page=51#57


Then in 2007 she names genus and species of the reservoir species.

What concerns me most is that we might begin to see an infection pattern with Ebola that is now well documented in Marburg outbreaks.

1. We know that human infection with Ebola comes about through the intermediary of infected great ape carcasses.

2. The viral transmission to primates occurs in the dry season, a period when food resources become increasingly scarce. The great apes then come into competition with bat species for fruit supplies when foraging and can be infected notably by blood or by placental fluid that escapes when bats give birth. (See my post #57 from 2004)

3. The mode of contamination by Marburg virus appears to be different, however. It does not appear to need any intermediary to be pathogenic for humans, as foreseen from the data on Marburg epidemic outbreaks.

In one outbreak, which raged in the north-east of DRC in 2000, most people infected worked in a goldmine, which turned out to be the refuge for a large colony of Egyptian rousettes. During the second epidemic, in Angola, the first victims were children who had gathered fruit from trees where a large population of this species of fruit bat roosted.

4. R. aegyptiacus - Carries both antibodies and viral RNA fragments - strongly suggesting that this bat species is a non-symptom developing carrier of the Marburg virus - (i.e.) the natural reservoir.


75 posted on 10/09/2007 7:58:39 AM PDT by Mother Abigail

This hypothesis of Mother Abigail was proven true in 2009.

************************************************** *******************
A ProMED-mail post

ProMED-mail is a program of the
International Society for Infectious Diseases

Date: Fri 2 Oct 2009
Source: [edited]

Virus Hunters Find Ebola, Marburg Source in Fruit Bat

Scientists are closing in on the source of Ebola and Marburg
[hemorrhagic fevers], 2 of the world’s most-lethal infectious
diseases. After a 5-year search in the jungles of Africa, an
international team of virus hunters has identified a fruit bat that
may be the natural host for both hemorrhage-causing diseases. Also,
these viruses are more widespread than previously thought, according
to their research, which will be published via an open-access BioMed
Central journal.

The study, based on blood tests on more than 2000 bats in Gabon and
the Republic of Congo, will help scientists solve a mystery that has
confounded them for more than 30 years: which species harbor Ebola
and Marburg [viruses] without getting sick. The answer may explain
how the viruses persist in the environment and point to ways humans
can avoid a disease that causes fatal bleeding and organ failure in
at least half of cases.

“Very eminent scientists have been searching for decades to find the
source,” said John Mackenzie, a Melbourne-based virologist who
assists the World Health Organization in its response to outbreaks.
“Until you know what it is, you can’t piece together the epidemiology
or begin to think about managing the risks to both humans and wildlife.”

Marburg hemorrhagic fever was recognized in 1967, when outbreaks
occurred in laboratories in Marburg and Frankfurt, Germany, and in
the Serbian [Yugoslavian] capital, Belgrade. Cases were traced to
African green monkeys imported for research and polio vaccine
production. Then, 9 years later, a closely related virus was found to
have sparked a deadly outbreak near the Ebola River in the Democratic
Republic of Congo, formerly known as Zaire.

Disease trackers have tested everything from snakes to guinea pigs in
the search for an animal reservoir and have been repeatedly led back
to caves, mines and bats. A 2005 study published in the journal
Nature found evidence of symptomless ebolavirus infection in 3
species of fruit bat in West Africa, indicating that these animals
may be the ones silently harboring the virus. In March [2009],
scientists reported the 1st evidence directly connecting a human
Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreak to the putative fruit bat reservoir.

The study reported this week is the 1st to show that ebolavirus and
marburgvirus are circulating simultaneously in bat populations in one
country. While several human Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks have
occurred in Gabon, no cases of Marburg hemorrhagic fever have been
reported there, the authors said. The presence of marburgvirus in the
West African nation represents a “potential and previously
unrecognized threat to humans,” they said.

“These findings provide much stronger evidence for a reservoir in
bats,” Xavier Pourrut, a virologist at Gabon’s International Center
for Medical Research in Franceville and the study’s lead author, said
in a telephone interview. “The next step is to understand how the
viruses circulate in bat populations over time.” Pourrut and
collaborators from the Special Pathogens Branch of the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta and France’s Institute for
Development Research looked for evidence of previous ebolavirus and
marburgvirus infection in the blood samples of 2147 bats from at
least 9 species. Tests were conducted from 2003 to 2008 in 3 regions
of Gabon and in the Ebola epidemic region of north Congo.

Of all the bats sampled in significant numbers, only specimens of the
cave-roosting Egyptian fruit bat, or _Rousettus aegyptiacus_, were
found to harbor antibodies against both ebolavirus and marburgvirus,
the authors wrote, “suggesting that this species may be a natural
host of both viruses.” The Egyptian rousette, with a doglike face and
ears, is found along the Nile River in Egypt, across Sub-Saharan
Africa, eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. While some groups
may occasionally roost outside in trees, the bats of this species
prefer to inhabit caves, mines and tombs, and feast on fruit trees at
night. These preferences give it a stronger link with the circulation
of ebolavirus and marburgvirus more frequently found in rain forests,
said Pierre Formenty, leader of the emerging and dangerous pathogens
team at the World Health Organization (WHO) in Geneva.

Formenty was among 29 authors of a study published in July [2009]
that showed Marburg virus could be isolated from seemingly healthy
Egyptian fruit bats caught in Uganda’s Kitaka Cave, where miners
infected with the virus in 2007 had worked. While some outbreaks in
humans have been directly linked to contact with bats, more evidence
exists to link cases with infected apes, chimpanzees and other
primates that are often consumed in Central Africa. These animals, in
turn, probably got the virus by eating fruit contaminated with saliva
or other bodily fluids from bats, according to Pourrut.

Once a human is infected, there is no cure for ebolavirus or
marburgvirus infection. After an incubation period of about a week,
victims rapidly develop high fever, diarrhea, vomiting, respiratory
disorders and hemorrhaging. Death can ensue within a few days. About
a quarter of Marburg hemorrhagic fever cases are fatal, whereas case
fatality rates range from 50 to 80 percent with Ebola hemorrhagic
fever in Africa.

Ebolavirus may circulate naturally within at least one other bat
species and spread to members of the Egyptian rousette via contact
with infected saliva left on fruit remnants, Formenty said in an
interview. Also, no link with the Egyptian fruit bat was found with
at least 3 Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks, he said. “We’ve got a
whole lot of clues on the crossword puzzle and we’re just filling the
blanks now,” said Bob Swanepoel, a virologist at South Africa’s
National Institute for Communicable Diseases in Johannesburg, who 1st
sought to unravel the history of Marburg hemorrhagic fever in the
mid-1970s. Scientists will complete the task within a decade, he said.


In the spring of 2009 I asked her the following questions and then reported her answers here in July of 2009.

Q. There are many people worried about the novel H1N1 virus combining with the H5N1 virus. What are your feelings on the issue?

MA. The HPAI A(H5N1) virus is an avian disease - panzootic in poultry and wild birds - and while there have been over 250 human deaths in the last six years from H5N1 infection there is very limited human-to-human transmission of the virus.

But it is worrisome considering it’s:

1. High lethality
2. Worldwide host reservoir
3. And propensity for mutation

We know, for instance, that in Indonesia the virus may be adapting to pigs.

The H5N1 virus isolated from pigs is less harmful to mice than the H5N1 isolated from chickens.

This means that the virus growing in pigs might well be adapting to a new host - which, in turn, suggest that it might eventually adapt to humans as well.

Pigs are seen as a possible intermediate host that can help in that adaptation because the epithelial cells in pigs’ trachea can be infected by both avian and human flu. Where, in the event of co-infection, viral reassortment might occur.

It seems prudent to be concerned.

However, the normal seasonal flu kills over 30,000 per year which is a quantum leap in risk.

As to the novel H1N1 virus now spreading like wildfire around the globe - the issue is different. The new H1N1 virus is more deadly than common seasonal influenza because of its ability to infect cells deep in the lungs where it can cause scarring and pneumonia.

Also it is more virulent. At least in animal models that is, what we see in the human population is a rather low (0.2%) lethality. Time will tell what the final verdict on virulence is.

We know for certain that it does not have the mitochondrial killing prowess of the 1918 flu virus. However it seems to have spread in six weeks as much as the seasonal flu spreads in six months. It is hot.

As to your question of the two mixing and somehow acquiring the lethality of H5N1 and infectiousness of H1N1 - it is of course possible.

Antigenic shift between avian influenza and human influenza is not something unheard of. The “Asian” flu pandemic of 1957 and the “Hong Kong” flu pandemic of 1968 both introduced novel strains.

The H2 that appeared in 1957 and the H3 that appeared in 1968 came from influenza viruses circulating in birds.

So when we consider that the human population has absolutely no immunity against any H5 viruses the red flags go very high indeed.

Will H5N1 reassort with H1N1 or with H3N2, or will it “drift” into another host like pigs and then move to other mammals?

It has failed over the last few years to combine with H3N2 and has yet to find a non-avian host.

When novel H1N1 becomes ubiquitous, as it certainly appears headed, will the increased opportunity for antigenic shift finally create a specific case of reassortment or viral shift that confers a phenotypic change?

I don’t know. No one does, but we can use our experience and make educated calculations as to the possibilities. I would rate the chance of H1 acquiring a polybasic cleavage site at nil, but the odds of H1 picking up lethal genes or polymorphisms at >5%.


This second interview is shorter and a bit less technical the URL is here:

4 posted on 10/13/2010 5:19:47 PM PDT by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar

JANUARY 25, 2010

Anyway, the snow has let up and there is blue sky lighting up a winter wonderland little town. I spent a very long time visiting with Mother Abigail yesterday and, as I promised, here is a summary of my notes.

When I arrived at MA’s home it was lightly snowing and her home could have been out of a movie set, just beautiful and very cozy. MA seemed glad to see me - which put me a bit at ease. My nerves sometimes get a little edgy when I have to interview her. MA is both sweet and accommodating but there is something about her bearing that makes me think of a visit to the principal’s office.

While I made myself comfortable in her den, MA made us tea with cinnamon sticks. The fire was warm and the view out to her backyard was enough to make me feel a bit domestic. Sometimes I wonder what it would be like to not have lived the “cowboy” lifestyle - but the feeling always passes when I get on the road.

When MA arrived with the tea set I noticed that her hands are getting a lot worse. She has arthritis in both hands and often her friends help her with things that she cannot do - like open bottle caps.

The fingers next to her thumbs seem to be quite a bit dislocated now with a lot of swelling. It concerned me so I asked about her health.

Q: MA your hands look a bit worse are they bothering you?

MA: They look a lot worse than they feel. It is the dexterity that is such a pill, I have had to get a variety of gadgets to help with activities that once I could easily do with my hands.

Q: Are you on meds?

MA: Oh of course, I now have a monthly infusion and I give myself a shot once a week as well. Not to mention all the pills that I use for maintenance.

Q: How do you manage in such a big house alone?

MA: James I have a housekeeper who has been on my staff for twenty years and is an angel for me. Also, with my family living in Reno, I am never without help when I need it.

Q: MA I did’nt, in any way, want to pry into your private life - I was just concerned.

MA: Of course child, I knew that.

Q: MA do you have a cell phone for emergencies?

MA: Well I carry a Blackberry for odds and ends and I never leave home without it in my purse.

Q: Good, I thought you must.

Q: When I write my next piece, should I leave out this discussion about your arthritis?

MA: (Laughing) No James I have very little vanity left at this late stage of the game. You continue to write everything as truthfully as you can.

Q: Thank you.

Q: I have read a lot over the winter and would like to ask a few questions about H1N1 and HIV, would you mind?

MA: I hoped that you would.

Q: Wolfgang Wodarg, head of health at the Council of Europe, has charged that the pandemic of H1N1 was overstated in order to allow the pharmaceutical companies to cash in. He has also called for an inquiry into the pandemic - claiming it is “one of the great medicine scandals of the century”

India has asked the World Health Organization to explain reports that the pandemic status given to swine flu was a “false” one.

Poland, the only country to reject the H1N1 vaccine, stated that “We will not take part because it’s not honest and it’s not safe for the patient.” This was from Prime Minister Donald Tusk who now stands by his decision.
What is your opinion of the validity of these claims?

Do you think that the situation was overstated on purpose, or that financial motive was a factor in the elevation of this new virus to such an emergency level?

MA: James I am not sure if you remember but in June Dr. Chan was under withering criticism to quicken the pace of the authorities in responding to this crisis.

On June 11th, 2009 she raised the alert level to “6” - our highest level. At that time many people were saying that we were dragging our feet and losing all credibility.

In particular, I remember Dr. Michael Osterholm, who is the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, saying that we had abandoned science and were failing to declare a level “6” because of political motives.

It was a mixed bag. But looking back at the first months of the outbreak I am forced to ask what were our choices? If we failed to respond in a robust and unified manor then not only our moral credibility but our future decisions were in grave peril. The phrase “better safe than sorry” comes to mind.

I would rather have a huge stockpile of vaccine that we did not use than to have a true medical emergency without sufficient supplies to treat the public.

We are not Gods - there are no hard and fast rules about predicting the outcome of new pathogens. We try to be as proactive as possible (when given time) but much of medicine is reactive - and in truth we often are wrong in our decisions.

But to impute the motives of these fine people is scurrilous. I have spent a long lifetime in the company of people who are forced to make decisions about health on a very large scale - and our public health professionals are, by and large, ethical and caring individuals.

Q: But MA from the start you stated that this was probably a moderate outbreak.

MA: Yes, and so did many others. But we are not carrying the heavy responsibility for the vast complexities that must be mobilized to meet a pending pandemic.

When the buck stops on your desk, you do not have the luxury of taking the middle ground. When there is even a potential for disaster, the CDC and WHO must always prepare for the “worst case” scenario. It is their duty.

Q: What about your reservations on mass vaccination and the use of neuraminidase inhibitors?

MA: That is a different issue. I am strongly opposed to the use of neuraminidase inhibitors on any individual who has a disorder of the immune system (HIV, Rheumatoid arthritis etc.) We do not have enough information on the contraindications of this reaction to safely prescribe this regimen.

As to mass vaccination - when you have new vaccines it is wise to be cautious. The more controlled and disciplined we can be in their administration, the more confident we can be in their safety and efficacy.

This was the only time I was to visit MA prior to her developing pneumonia and getting very sick.

Winter came and went, MA got well and although she did not open the Tahoe “cabin” this summer, her health is good and I am anxious to complete this work.

The Third Interview can be found here:

5 posted on 10/13/2010 5:27:33 PM PDT by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar

October 13, 2010

Carson City, Nevada


It is a beautiful fall evening with still a taste of summer in the air. I am back at the Hotel after a wonderful day with MA.

I have a date on Saturday with Baby Cakes and life, at this moment, seems a bit too good to be true.

Nevada - how I hurried to abandon this place in the winter and how truly magical it seems this afternoon. There is nothing like small town America.

After interviewing MA for several hours and missing lunch I am in the mood for Tanqueray and steak. You can say what you will about casinos, but they dish out perfect steaks and cocktails like it was chips and salsa. And God bless them for that.

So I will simply post the introduction to this final piece (which of course is not written yet) and this little bit of a preamble – and mosey on down to my favorite watering hole.

When I return we will start this bit of denouement with the hope of proving all my ex-wives and the many e-mailers wrong – I can finish something.


6 posted on 10/13/2010 5:29:38 PM PDT by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar


7 posted on 10/13/2010 5:56:50 PM PDT by Pelham (Islam, the mortal enemy of the free world)
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To: Pelham

So what is the coming wave? Is he currently writing about it?

8 posted on 10/13/2010 6:09:44 PM PDT by MissH
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To: MissH

This appears to be a series of interviews with someone who studied hemorrhagic fevers- fun stuff like Ebola and Marburg virus. If you read the book The Hot Zone you’ll be familiar with these nightmare viruses.

She also makes some interesting comments regarding the recent avian and swine flu outbreaks. The CDC and WHO have been accused of hyping the threat of H1N1. This Mother Abigail points out that they have to plan for the worst. If the virus proves to be mild then people are out a few bucks for a vaccine. But if it proves to be a dangerous flu and no one has manufactured enough vaccine then you could have a situation like 1918.

9 posted on 10/13/2010 6:34:22 PM PDT by Pelham (Islam, the mortal enemy of the free world)
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To: James Oscar
Carson City

October 14, 2010

There are a couple of housekeeping issues that need to be noted first.

1. where I first posted the “Birth of the Flu Blog” article has gone belly up. This is very common on these niche sites - especially science sites.

Which raises the question about the rapidly disappearing history of the Internet. If I had not written about Mother Abigail and the transformation of new media - would all that history now be lost. Many of the Web Sites that were involved in the early process of development are now lost forever.

Perhaps that is the way it will be, seminal people and seminal events will just fade away like used electrons without every being documented and credited. A disposable history if you will.

But that is a larger topic and gratefully we have a full record of all the work that MA did. As long as Free Republic remains on line that is...

2. Again all the words that appear on this thread are mine and mine alone. Mother Abigail has refused to edit or comment on any of my work thus far.

I have struggled to be as accurate as possible in my reporting of her views and thoughts. It is my hope that I have achieved that goal.


10 posted on 10/14/2010 10:13:24 AM PDT by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar
October 13, 2010

Carson City, Nevada

I arrived at the Reno Airport this morning and drove to Carson with a bit of nervousness in my stomach.

This was to be my first Interview with MA since the winter when she got sick. I have spoken to her several times and corresponded but this will be the first time I have seen her since that morning at the Hospital.

When very old people are very ill there is glimpse of something that I would choose not to see again. I spoke to MA about how thin that line appears between the living and the dead.

Because I abandoned Texas (for my own good) and have separated myself from a very dysfunctional family - I have been spared the harsher side of later life.

My sister is actually very angry with me for “leaving her with the problems” - and she is probably fully justified. But sometimes self-survival is stronger than any bond.

But back to MA in the Hospital - it will be a joy to see her back in the rigid form that so dominates every environment she attends.

The other thing gnawing at my gut is my young lady friend. As any sane person knows, older men should not date young beautiful women.

Last year was mixed with some very strange feelings in the relationship department. We were involved, we withdrew from that involvement and then we seemed, over time, to renegotiate our relationship.

All of which means that when I go visit "baby cakes" (please excuse my obvious non PC nicknames) I have absolutely no idea where we stand. And that is both exciting and worrying.

11 posted on 10/14/2010 10:38:49 AM PDT by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar
October 13, 2010

Carson City, Nevada

After checking into the Hotel I drove over to Baby Cakes house and visited with that charming woman.

She is a supervisor for the State and comes home for lunch every day at exactly the same time, so it is nice to have a bit of reliability in my otherwise disorderly life.

She is just as beautiful and poised as I remembered and seems in high spirits. We are going to go to Reno on Saturday and visit some old haunts.

This trip seems to be off to a wonderful start. But the real destination is MA’s house at 3:00 PM for a bit of tea and conversation.

That bunch of twisted up insides is still yet to be soothed.


12 posted on 10/14/2010 10:48:54 AM PDT by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar
October 13, 2010

Carson City, Nevada

It was nice to drive up to MA’s house again, the leaves are just starting to turn and this old historic neighborhood is something out of a movie set. It is the perfect home for Mother Abigail.

Her housekeeper was there to let me in and lead me to the library. It is still a wonderful and comfortable venue to sit in the afternoon and talk about the world. And when you discuss the world with MA you need to make certain you had a good breakfast, studied hard and listen closely.

MA came in looking very well and none the worse for wear, and that is a great relief to me.

MA: James it is good to see you again.

J: And equally good to see you MA. Are you feeling well?

MA: Fit as a fiddle.

J: That's excellent. The last time I saw you was in the hospital and as we discussed on the phone - it was a bit scary.

MA: A bit frightening for me as well. Would you like tea or a cocktail?

J: No MA I'm good.

MA: It is still too warm for a fire but one of the mornings soon it will be winter. I miss not going to the lake this summer but my Cardiologist reccomended I relax this year.

J: The cabin will still be there next year.

J: The first thing I would like to say is congratulations on uncovering the host of the Ebola Virus. Your post from April of 2004 is, I believe, the earliest identification of Rousettus aegyptiacus that I have found. You were not doing field work then, how did you arrive at that conclusion?

MA: Well, you are way to generous with your praise James there were others, I assure you, who were looking at this species as a host reservoir as well. As to how - it just seemed the right fit for all the epidemiological clues that were available. Dr.Pourrut and his team have been working on this problem since 2003 and their work will probably stand as the definitive study unless we get further data.

J: Perhaps they should have written about it sooner then. For as the facts stand (and I am always open to correction) your post about fruit bats as the natural reservoir predates their publication by five full years.;page=51

And in 2007 you stated:

“R. aegyptiacus - Carries both antibodies and viral RNA fragments - strongly suggesting that this bat species is the natural reservoir.”

That is pretty definitive...

MA: It was my firm belief that the overlapping of the primates and fruit bats during the late season had to be the common transmission point.

J: Bravo to you - it was early an early and correct diagnosis.

13 posted on 10/15/2010 1:20:30 PM PDT by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar
October 15, 2010

Sierraville, California

I have made my way to the Sierraville hot springs this afternoon for a little R & R. I have to be back in Carson tomorrow at 9:00 Am to pick up BC.

For those of you new to my writing style - I find that writing these threads is best done in a “flow of consciousness” manner.

I prefer not to get too structured or formal, so from time to time I will interject my current surroundings with my story. For those that this drives crazy - sorry.

Which brings me to the Sierra Nevada Mountains and one of the best hot springs in the world.

It is early afternoon and I have been waiting for housekeeping to clean my room and let me unpack. So far no luck. There was only one room left at the Globe hotel and there were none at the lodge.

So I will try to post a bit more tonight during supper, but it is really a lovely place.


14 posted on 10/15/2010 4:14:14 PM PDT by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar
October 13, 2010

Carson City, Nevada

J: MA I know that you don't like to talk about the SARS threads, but I have so many emails since I wrote the original article several years ago that I feel obligated to try and relay a few of those questions to you. Would you mind?

MA: Oh, I suppose not James.

J: Mostly people want to know about your original post “Precognition” where you originally alerted the Internet about the unexplained pneumonia cases in China.

Why did you choose to use Free Republic as the vehicle to post that thread?

MA: Well James it is not as complicated as it may seem. I do not have a computer and use WebTv on my TV to read the Internet. And Free Republic is one of the few sites that is workable on WebTv. Most of the others have too much junk and are really not compatible.

J: And you chose to post on SARS because?

MA: Fear son. It is hard to imagine how little we knew and how exponentially this threat grew in the first few days. I doubt anyone realizes just how mobilized and cooperative the scientific community was during that first week. I felt everyone needed to know what was transpiring in real time. And for an epidemiologist this was one very bad bug with a ticket to ride right into our West Coast.

J: Interesting. Were you really frightened?

MA: Very much so.

J: MA thank you for that, I must have had a hundred people looking for that answer.

MA: James, would you like a drink now? I have a bottle of Tangueray handy.

15 posted on 10/15/2010 7:16:45 PM PDT by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar

October 13, 2010
Carson City, Nevada

J: There is one more question that seems to be a constant among your fans, and that is what do you mean by precognition?

Do you mean like seeing the future?

MA: Yes

J: Why would you choose to title a thread on microbiology “Precognition”?

MA: James do you believe that thread is about microbiology?

J: Mostly

MA: It is not.

16 posted on 10/31/2010 5:26:22 PM PDT by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar

October 13, 2010

As we sat in MA’s library and stared out at the beautiful cottonwood trees lining the street, I pondered her response. It was a very odd thread - mixed with religion, science and pop culture - but it had no theme that I had ever discovered.

J: Ok, well what is the thread really about then?

MA: James why don’t you study it a bit and give me an answer on our next visit. How does that sound?

J: Fine by me MA.

17 posted on 10/31/2010 5:39:30 PM PDT by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar
November 14, 2010
Millbrae, Ca.

I apologize for the long delay between my last post and today, but real life has intruded once again.

Kate (Baby Cakes) and I are debating the imperfections in our pitcher of Bloody Marys. The beautiful pupu platter of chips and fresh California fruit looks like Georgia after Gen. Sherman's brief visit - and the sun seems extraordinarily hot for November.

Yesterday afternoon the gray sky in Carson City became too much for even desert loving Kate. So we fled like fugitives to the West Coast.

And free from the insidious influence of Happy Meals - we sit by the pool at my favorite resort.

Since my return to Carson City, Kate and I have reestablished our relationship - it appears that lack of contact enhances our respect for one another.

So while my dedication to this project may seem lacking, this Autumn has been filled with personal happiness.

18 posted on 11/20/2010 1:21:29 AM PST by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar
November 15, 2010
Highway 80 East of Sacramento

We left the Coast early to avoid the morning traffic and are now within sight of the foothills.

A perfect weekend ended last night over lamb chops and creme brulee.

We are such an odd pair. But it is our uniqueness that forms the basis for the joy we find in one another.

19 posted on 11/20/2010 1:30:35 AM PST by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar

November 20, 2010
Carson City

The previous two posts were written longhand over the weekend and I am posting them now to catch up on my thoughts.

It is early morning and there is no snow yet, just a light rain. I am unable to go back to sleep so I will use the time to continue with my reporting on MA and my conversations with her.

20 posted on 11/20/2010 1:35:31 AM PST by James Oscar
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