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The Super La Nina and the Coming Winter (Things might get real cold.)
Pajamas Media ^ | October 25, 2010 | Art Horn

Posted on 10/25/2010 5:21:39 AM PDT by Kaslin

A super La Nina is developing.

Historically, these strong La Nina events drop the Earth’s average temperature around one degree Fahrenheit, and the drop comes quickly. As a result, some of the same places that had record heat this summer may suffer through record cold this winter.

La Nina is the lesser-known colder sister of El Nino. La Nina chills the waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and in turn cools the entire planet for one to two years or more. This chilling has the potential to bring bone-numbing cold to many parts of the world for this and the following winter. As a result, world energy demand may spike in the next one to two years as much colder weather hits many of the major industrial nations.

This La Nina appears to be special, at least so far. It is well on its way to being the strongest of these events since the super La Nina of 1955-1956. During that powerful La Nina that lasted two years, the global average temperature fell nearly one degree Fahrenheit from 1953 to 1956.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) measures the air pressure difference between Darwin, Australia, and Tahiti. The lower the value of the index, the stronger the El Nino typically is. The higher the SOI index, the stronger the La Nina. The September SOI value of +25.0 was the highest of any September going back to 1917, when it was +29.7. During that super La Nina, the global temperature fell 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit from 1915 to 1917. The +25.0 September SOI reading is also the highest for any month dating back to the +31.6 value in November of 1973.

The most recent La Nina developed in the spring of 2007, and persisted until the early summer of 2008. The global average temperature fell one degree Fahrenheit in that period of time, equal to all of the warming of the last 100 years! If the trend of this rapidly developing, potentially super La Nina continues, an equal or larger temperature drop can be anticipated during the next one to two years. This La Nina is coming on very fast and very strong. Already it is colder than the six coldest La Ninas of the last 60 years when they were at a similar stage of development.

What about the recent heat we’ve all heard about?

For the last year, the world has been dealing with the warming effects of a strong El Nino. The El Nino warms the ocean waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean and in turn heats the atmosphere. Western Russia melted under a record heat wave this summer, after freezing from record cold last winter. Many parts of the southern United States had record heat this summer, but also shivered under record cold last winter. The persistence of the jetstream to blow in patterns that changed very little for long periods of time contributed to these extremes of temperature. This locked in jetstream wind pattern enhances temperature anomalies by restricting the exchange of air flow from one place to another. What would be hot becomes very hot, and what would be cold becomes very cold.

It is common for the jetstream to behave this way when the sun is in the solar minimum, such as it has been for the last three years. We are emerging from the minimum, but the sunspot numbers are continuing to be very low. Some solar experts say this next sunspot maximum may be one of the weakest in 200 years. As a result, the tendency for the jetstream to blow over parts of the Earth with little month-to-month variability may continue this year. That would result in continued extremes of temperature. The difference would be this time cold areas would be even colder due to the oncoming super La Nina and the falling global temperature.

The El Nino of the last year pushed the global temperature right back to where it had been in the beginning of 2007. The result has been no net warming or cooling since then. In fact, there has been no net warming or cooling since around 1999. Interestingly, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen from 369 parts per million to 387 ppm (parts per million) during this time. This amount is 2 percent above the level of 302 ppm in 1910, when 20th century global temperature started to rise. Despite this significant rise in carbon dioxide since 1999, there has been no “global warming” during this period.

Right now the Pacific Ocean is in the beginning of a thirty year cooler spell called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. There is a strong, potentially super La Nina developing. The sun is still quiet with very few sunspots. When these conditions exist, the first two months of the cold season (December and January) tend to be cold from Montana to Iowa to Florida up to the Great Lakes and most of New England. In addition, temperatures tend to be very cold from central and western Canada to Alaska. China could suffer a bitterly cold December and January if historic temperature patterns are consistent with current conditions. Much of central and western Europe are cold in these situations as well.

The second half of the cold season (February and March) typically experiences some changes in the global temperature patterns in these types of winters. For Europe the changes are not good. Bitter cold and snow dominates from western Russia across all of Europe. In other words, what starts as a cold winter in central and western Europe deepens into a severe winter in February and March across all of Europe. The extreme cold eases in southern China but it deepens in the north and northeastern part of the country. In the United States the cold of December and January in the middle and eastern part of the country reverses to mild weather from Texas to Florida up to the Great Lakes and New England. All of the western U.S. is cold and snowy up to the northern Great Plains. What starts as a mild winter out west turns much colder with large amounts of snow while the east gets a break from the cold.

The current La Nina is coming on stronger than any in decades. The world is demanding more and more energy to fuel growth even in hard economic times. This winter may test the world energy supplier’s ability to provide it. The resulting increase in demand could produce a spike in energy costs. This could bring more hardship to people who are suffering through this long and deep recession. It remains to be seen if this La Nina equals or exceeds the super La Nina of 1955/56. Right now El Nino’s colder sister is on the fast track to generate more temperature extremes and a very cold winter in some parts of the world.


TOPICS: Weather
KEYWORDS: cold; heat; lanina; meterology; predictions; weather; winter

1 posted on 10/25/2010 5:21:41 AM PDT by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

We need to ask Joe Bastardi of Accuweather. His prediction last winter was right on the money for us folks in Michigan.....little snow but lots of cold.


2 posted on 10/25/2010 5:29:40 AM PDT by Hot Tabasco (There's only one cure for Obamarrhea......)
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To: Kaslin

I can handle 35 degrees like I was on a Miami beach in August... But 34 degrees... Ohhh... Well then I guess I better run out and buy a coat right now.


3 posted on 10/25/2010 5:32:25 AM PDT by GreatJoeMcCarthy
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To: Kaslin

It can’t gt cold. We have global warming. Just ask the paragon of honesty and knowledge, Al Gore.


4 posted on 10/25/2010 5:32:52 AM PDT by sport
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To: Kaslin

Good. Maybe this will kill off the poison ivy on my farm.


5 posted on 10/25/2010 5:35:37 AM PDT by Mercat
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To: GreatJoeMcCarthy

LOL!


6 posted on 10/25/2010 5:37:13 AM PDT by cajungirl
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To: Kaslin

Blinding Mountain Snowstorm to Unfold in the West
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/40533/blinding-mountain-snowstorm-to.asp


7 posted on 10/25/2010 5:38:19 AM PDT by listenhillary (A very simple fix to our dilemma - We need to reward the makers instead of the takers)
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To: Hot Tabasco
I count woolly worms that cross the road. Early there were few and they were dark and full of ‘wool’. Then there was about 2 weeks where they were almost all light orange and white, maybe 5-10% were black. Then they were humongous and thick coats. Now they are normal size, but all black.

Translation, Early cold spell, maybe snow. Mild for a while, then big heavy blast, and spring will be late.

I got my degree in weather forecasting along with my mailman driver's license! ;}

8 posted on 10/25/2010 5:43:36 AM PDT by grame (May you know more of the love of God Almighty this day!)
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To: Mercat

Roundup will kill the poison ivy on your farm. I never heard of cold weather having much impact.

The birds will replant it for you though.


9 posted on 10/25/2010 5:44:03 AM PDT by listenhillary (A very simple fix to our dilemma - We need to reward the makers instead of the takers)
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To: Kaslin
I believe the animals more than the forecasters. Lousiest deer hunting season here in Northern Nevada in years. Animals are already hunkered down for Winter. Didn't help that we went from 90 plus days to rain and 40 in two days.
10 posted on 10/25/2010 5:47:59 AM PDT by mad_as_he$$ (Playing by the rules only works if both sides do it!)
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To: Hot Tabasco

Joe Bastardi was on the money about Dallas! He predicted “unusual amounts of snow for Dallas...and a winter in Dallas that would be remembered for snow”

Well we got three snowstorms in Dallas (unusual!) including the infamous Valentines Day Massacare that dumped 14” or more of snow in one day in DFW


11 posted on 10/25/2010 5:52:58 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: Mercat

“Good. Maybe this will kill off the poison ivy on my farm.”

Fat chance, poison ivy and cockroaches are all that’s going to be left at the end of the world.


12 posted on 10/25/2010 5:54:13 AM PDT by dangerdoc (see post #6)
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To: Kaslin
good, I have been needing an excuse to wear my new cashmere overcoat :)
13 posted on 10/25/2010 5:54:13 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama = Epic Fail)
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To: Kaslin

NWS forecasting ‘normal’ winter temps.
Slightly warmer in the mid-south, slightly cooler in the north and west.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/poe_index.php?lead=2&var=t


14 posted on 10/25/2010 5:56:21 AM PDT by mrsmith
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To: Kaslin

As a transplanted upstate New Yorker now living in Central Texas, I knew there was a reason I kept all my sub-zero winter gear.


15 posted on 10/25/2010 5:58:46 AM PDT by Le Chien Rouge
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To: dangerdoc
Fat chance, poison ivy and cockroaches are all that’s going to be left at the end of the world.

And privet. Privet laughs at Roundup, fire, being dug up, cut, mowed, you name it. It will outlast everything on the planet......

16 posted on 10/25/2010 6:01:25 AM PDT by Thermalseeker (Stop the insanity - Flush Congress!)
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To: Kaslin

Old Farmers Almanac said a cold winter but not that cold.


17 posted on 10/25/2010 6:03:57 AM PDT by mountainlion (concerned conservative.)
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To: Mercat

Maybe it’ll wipe out the kudzu that keeps inching northward.


18 posted on 10/25/2010 6:06:04 AM PDT by randita (Visit keyhouseraces.com to find GOP House candidates who need your support to knock off a DEM.)
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To: dangerdoc

You forgot Kudzu....


19 posted on 10/25/2010 6:07:19 AM PDT by ErnBatavia (It's not the Obama Administration....it's the "Obama Regime".)
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for later


20 posted on 10/25/2010 6:09:15 AM PDT by Semper911 (When you want to rob Peter to pay Paul, you'll always have the support of Paul.)
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To: listenhillary

Round up is fine for the back yard and we do use it but 8 acres is pretty tough. I spent the last two weekends detangling bind weed, brambles (aka wild rose) and poison ivy which had grown up with a few trash trees under the biggest tree on our property. I scrub down with poison ivy soap and creams and shower and wash my clothes but still get it. I think I need a gas mask and a flame thrower. This area had been sprayed with round up over the past three years.


21 posted on 10/25/2010 6:10:48 AM PDT by Mercat
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To: Kaslin

We had significantly lower temps all year here in the Pacifist Northwest, and everyone is expecting a particularly nasty winter. Between yesterday and today, there will be about 22 inches of new snow in the Cascades, which is pretty early for that much accumulation at any altitude.

I had 3 cords of firewood delivered this year and we’ve already had the stove fired up several times, especially in the mornings last week when it was in the high 30’s at dawn.


22 posted on 10/25/2010 6:13:33 AM PDT by Bean Counter (Self Defence is always appropriate.)
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To: Mercat

A flame thrower sounds good. Make sure you’re upwind.


23 posted on 10/25/2010 6:14:52 AM PDT by listenhillary (A very simple fix to our dilemma - We need to reward the makers instead of the takers)
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To: Kaslin

Yeah, and then in the Summer things will get real hot!

These stories are beyond stupid!

Hey, we might get hit by an asteroid too! Woe is us!


24 posted on 10/25/2010 6:20:02 AM PDT by Artcore
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To: Mercat

If I had eight acres and a herbicide sprayer I would write a satiric message in the grass that could be seen from space :0)


25 posted on 10/25/2010 6:20:43 AM PDT by agere_contra (...what if we won't eat the dog food?)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Check Joe Bastardi on Accuweather.com. His new winter forecast is up there and agrees with this one.

He is the best because he combines long term weather models with historical comparisons.

You are right about last year, he nailed it better than all the rest combined.


26 posted on 10/25/2010 6:23:22 AM PDT by BillM
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To: listenhillary

A situation can always be made better by the use of a flame thrower. They’re like the adult version of the suckers that doctors used to give to kids after getting a shot.


27 posted on 10/25/2010 6:28:57 AM PDT by paladin1_dcs
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To: Bean Counter

Just out of curiosity, how much is a cord of firewood going for in the Pacific NW? I’m in WV and was wondering about the differences in pricing between the two areas, considering both areas are heavily forested and fairly mountainous.


28 posted on 10/25/2010 6:31:01 AM PDT by paladin1_dcs
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To: Mercat

Round up is not effective on poison ivy. Go down to your county extension office, they will assist you with the proper sprays.

I use an axe to cut poison ivy vines out of trees. I found vines 3 inches in diameter. I use a mower on the rest. If you can mow it, it will eventually disappear.


29 posted on 10/25/2010 6:38:08 AM PDT by dangerdoc (see post #6)
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To: listenhillary

Roundup will kill the poison ivy on your farm.

One chem. better than Round-up, ask for 2-4-D, kills broad leaf but not grass..... Tractor Supply.


30 posted on 10/25/2010 6:38:48 AM PDT by buck61
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To: Hot Tabasco


We need to ask Joe Bastardi of Accuweather.

Reminds me of a quote from WWII...
“He’s a bastard...but he’s OUR bastard!”

(I can’t recall the exact basis of the quote; I think it may have
been Churchill commenting on Stalin.)


31 posted on 10/25/2010 6:40:24 AM PDT by VOA
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To: Mercat

32 posted on 10/25/2010 6:41:49 AM PDT by Married with Children
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To: paladin1_dcs

I paid $185 per cord of maple, spruce and alder; split, seasoned, and delivered. That’s been a pretty stable price for about four years now from the guy I deal with. I pay him in cash, and that keeps the price down too. I usually end up re-splitting some of the bigger pieces so they fit our stove, but I get excellent value for the money.

My heat pump simply will not keep the house as warm as the stove does when the temperature really drops. I use our split forced air system to circulate the heat between the front and back of the house, and turn the heat pump off at the breaker. If I regulate the stove properly, the front room stays at 73 degrees while the back stays at 70 regardless of how cold it gets outside.


33 posted on 10/25/2010 6:42:44 AM PDT by Bean Counter (Self Defence is always appropriate.)
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To: Married with Children

I prefer Ortho brush B gone. Read the label of the bottle.
Buy the product that has the highest percentage of the active ingredient.


34 posted on 10/25/2010 6:49:13 AM PDT by woodbutcher1963
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To: Kaslin

I’ll take the bone-chilling cold if it will shut up the “climate change” freak for a year or two.


35 posted on 10/25/2010 6:49:45 AM PDT by PGR88
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To: Bean Counter

Umm, wow. Talk about a difference. Year before last, I paid $115 a cord for Red Oak, White Oak, Hickory and Poplar. Granted, it was probably about 35-40% Poplar, but it was seasoned, split and delivered as well. I also paid in cash, but only bought two cords worth because of a lack of suitable space at the time.

I completely agree with you and understand about the heatpump. I rent now and have one in addition to a buck stove and I’m dreading this winter’s heating bills because of it. I hope the stove helps keep the gas bills down.


36 posted on 10/25/2010 6:50:59 AM PDT by paladin1_dcs
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To: VOA

The “He’s a so and so, but he’s our so and so” line goes back to the 19th Century.

http://message.snopes.com/showthread.php?t=8204


37 posted on 10/25/2010 6:58:53 AM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets (If not Boston, then Texas. Go Rangers!)
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To: VOA
I think the incident you are thinking of, is when Churchill, a staunch anticommunist and anti-totalitarian, was asked, after the German invasion of Russia, if he could get along with Stalin:

“If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favorable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.”

38 posted on 10/25/2010 7:02:22 AM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets (If not Boston, then Texas. Go Rangers!)
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To: PGR88
I’ll take the bone-chilling cold if it will shut up the “climate change” freak for a year or two.

Fat chance. AGWT, recently rebranded as "Climate Change", is remarkably robust with respect to data. All observations confirm it at the 100% confidence level. And no force on earth can shut up a "climate change" freak.

39 posted on 10/25/2010 7:06:08 AM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets (If not Boston, then Texas. Go Rangers!)
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To: mad_as_he$$

Come to Nebraska, please! We’re overrun with the dang things!


40 posted on 10/25/2010 7:06:38 AM PDT by greatplains
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To: Kaslin

Yay! That’ll drive all the hippies and Californicators out of my neck of the woods... 30-40 below ain’t good for much, but it IS good for that.


41 posted on 10/25/2010 7:13:29 AM PDT by roamer_1 (Globalism is just Socialism in a business suit)
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To: BillM

Is it on the paid side, because I can’t find anything except an old interview.


42 posted on 10/25/2010 7:18:09 AM PDT by Excellence (Buy Progresso, take off the label, write "not halal," mail to Campbell's soup company.)
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To: Excellence
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/40461/winter_forecast_battle_zone_fr_1.asp
43 posted on 10/25/2010 7:39:02 AM PDT by BillM
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To: Kaslin

At my work, we’re particularly wary of the upcoming winter season. I work at a company that takes people to and from the Seattle airport. Two years ago, just before Christmas, we had an unexpected major snowfall. It was bad enough that we had major trouble getting up into the hilly areas around Bellevue, Redmond, and the east side, not to mention downtown Seattle. (Someone once said “Seattle must be a city of destiny. Why else would they build one at a 45-degree angle?”)

We had to cut back our service to just the scheduled stops we could get to, as well as designated areas that didn’t normally have scheduled stops. It turned our business on it’s ear for about three days, and produced some of the nastiest, most mean and profane phone calls I’ve ever had the displeasure to receive. Seattleites are normally passive-aggressive, but if you mess with their travel plans, they become gutter-crawlin’, venom-spittin’ MEAN. I mean, you should’ve heard some of the threats we received. Some of my fellow agents left work in tears from the abuse they were getting.

We created a new ‘snow-plan’ after that, and it’s posted on our website, so if anyone has any questions what is going to happen should we encounter those conditions again, they have no excuses like “nobody told me”. And, if the weather-guessers predictions hold true, we’re going to be using that snow plan this winter. I am NOT looking forward to this.


44 posted on 10/25/2010 7:40:52 AM PDT by hoagy62 (.)
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To: Mercat

spraying with Roundup—

Instead read the label for products that are for woody brush-different product. I use it on trash trees, spraying the leaves, waiting a couple of weeks til dead- it takes out roots and all. Then I clip it near the ground and that is that. This kind of product is labeled for poison ivy.

I also sometimes cut a small trash tree, immediately (before the small trunk can seal over) brush it with full strength brush killer- wear heavy rubber gloves when you do this-that will kill down to the root also.


45 posted on 10/25/2010 10:13:29 AM PDT by handmade
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To: Bean Counter

Actually, it’s been going on now (colder temps) for more than a year.

I always save my monthly electric bills from Puget Power.

Each month, it shows average temperature for the month, and the average temp for the same month last year.

I believe every month this year was colder than the same month last year, and every month last year was cooler than the same month in 2008.

I’ll have to dig them out and maybe do some stats...


46 posted on 10/25/2010 10:23:34 AM PDT by djf (OK, so you got milk. Got Tula???)
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To: djf

I sure wish Clark Public Utilities would do that for us, but they would probably raise rates another 5% to pay for it.


47 posted on 10/25/2010 1:07:40 PM PDT by Bean Counter (Self Defence is always appropriate.)
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To: Bean Counter

I made a spreadsheet just to see what I had. It gave me 45 months of continuous data. Because I don’t have the stuff from 2006, I only got 37 months of Delta (this months temp versus same month last year).

Am I seeing global warming?

Well, not really. 37 months of delta added up to a total delta of -18 degrees F. So it would average out for three years to be, each month, about 1/2 degree cooler than the same month last year.

Highlights:
Spring 2008 (Apr, May, Jun) was quite a bit warmer than 2007 with a total delta for the 3 months of 14, or about 4.6 degrees per day. Spring of 2009 came back and probably ended up averaging out by being cooler than 2008, with a delta of -14 for the 3 months.
Winter 2008 and winter 2009 was about 2 degrees cooler than previous years. But winter 2010 really warmed up with a delta over 2009 of 15, or about 5 degrees F per day. After that, it cooled alot, with the delta for the next 5 months being -15, or 3 degrees per day for spring/early summer 2010.
The only thing that gave us any kind of summer at all was Sept, which was up a whopping 8 degrees per day over Sep of 2009.

So besides from a warm winter, probably because of El Nino, and a warm Sept., this year was cooler than usual.


48 posted on 10/26/2010 6:01:36 AM PDT by djf (OK, so you got milk. Got Tula???)
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