Skip to comments.The Super La Nina and the Coming Winter (Things might get real cold.)
Posted on 10/25/2010 5:21:39 AM PDT by Kaslin
A super La Nina is developing.
Historically, these strong La Nina events drop the Earths average temperature around one degree Fahrenheit, and the drop comes quickly. As a result, some of the same places that had record heat this summer may suffer through record cold this winter.
La Nina is the lesser-known colder sister of El Nino. La Nina chills the waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and in turn cools the entire planet for one to two years or more. This chilling has the potential to bring bone-numbing cold to many parts of the world for this and the following winter. As a result, world energy demand may spike in the next one to two years as much colder weather hits many of the major industrial nations.
This La Nina appears to be special, at least so far. It is well on its way to being the strongest of these events since the super La Nina of 1955-1956. During that powerful La Nina that lasted two years, the global average temperature fell nearly one degree Fahrenheit from 1953 to 1956.
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) measures the air pressure difference between Darwin, Australia, and Tahiti. The lower the value of the index, the stronger the El Nino typically is. The higher the SOI index, the stronger the La Nina. The September SOI value of +25.0 was the highest of any September going back to 1917, when it was +29.7. During that super La Nina, the global temperature fell 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit from 1915 to 1917. The +25.0 September SOI reading is also the highest for any month dating back to the +31.6 value in November of 1973.
The most recent La Nina developed in the spring of 2007, and persisted until the early summer of 2008. The global average temperature fell one degree Fahrenheit in that period of time, equal to all of the warming of the last 100 years! If the trend of this rapidly developing, potentially super La Nina continues, an equal or larger temperature drop can be anticipated during the next one to two years. This La Nina is coming on very fast and very strong. Already it is colder than the six coldest La Ninas of the last 60 years when they were at a similar stage of development.
What about the recent heat weve all heard about?
For the last year, the world has been dealing with the warming effects of a strong El Nino. The El Nino warms the ocean waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean and in turn heats the atmosphere. Western Russia melted under a record heat wave this summer, after freezing from record cold last winter. Many parts of the southern United States had record heat this summer, but also shivered under record cold last winter. The persistence of the jetstream to blow in patterns that changed very little for long periods of time contributed to these extremes of temperature. This locked in jetstream wind pattern enhances temperature anomalies by restricting the exchange of air flow from one place to another. What would be hot becomes very hot, and what would be cold becomes very cold.
It is common for the jetstream to behave this way when the sun is in the solar minimum, such as it has been for the last three years. We are emerging from the minimum, but the sunspot numbers are continuing to be very low. Some solar experts say this next sunspot maximum may be one of the weakest in 200 years. As a result, the tendency for the jetstream to blow over parts of the Earth with little month-to-month variability may continue this year. That would result in continued extremes of temperature. The difference would be this time cold areas would be even colder due to the oncoming super La Nina and the falling global temperature.
The El Nino of the last year pushed the global temperature right back to where it had been in the beginning of 2007. The result has been no net warming or cooling since then. In fact, there has been no net warming or cooling since around 1999. Interestingly, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen from 369 parts per million to 387 ppm (parts per million) during this time. This amount is 2 percent above the level of 302 ppm in 1910, when 20th century global temperature started to rise. Despite this significant rise in carbon dioxide since 1999, there has been no global warming during this period.
Right now the Pacific Ocean is in the beginning of a thirty year cooler spell called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. There is a strong, potentially super La Nina developing. The sun is still quiet with very few sunspots. When these conditions exist, the first two months of the cold season (December and January) tend to be cold from Montana to Iowa to Florida up to the Great Lakes and most of New England. In addition, temperatures tend to be very cold from central and western Canada to Alaska. China could suffer a bitterly cold December and January if historic temperature patterns are consistent with current conditions. Much of central and western Europe are cold in these situations as well.
The second half of the cold season (February and March) typically experiences some changes in the global temperature patterns in these types of winters. For Europe the changes are not good. Bitter cold and snow dominates from western Russia across all of Europe. In other words, what starts as a cold winter in central and western Europe deepens into a severe winter in February and March across all of Europe. The extreme cold eases in southern China but it deepens in the north and northeastern part of the country. In the United States the cold of December and January in the middle and eastern part of the country reverses to mild weather from Texas to Florida up to the Great Lakes and New England. All of the western U.S. is cold and snowy up to the northern Great Plains. What starts as a mild winter out west turns much colder with large amounts of snow while the east gets a break from the cold.
The current La Nina is coming on stronger than any in decades. The world is demanding more and more energy to fuel growth even in hard economic times. This winter may test the world energy suppliers ability to provide it. The resulting increase in demand could produce a spike in energy costs. This could bring more hardship to people who are suffering through this long and deep recession. It remains to be seen if this La Nina equals or exceeds the super La Nina of 1955/56. Right now El Ninos colder sister is on the fast track to generate more temperature extremes and a very cold winter in some parts of the world.
We need to ask Joe Bastardi of Accuweather. His prediction last winter was right on the money for us folks in Michigan.....little snow but lots of cold.
I can handle 35 degrees like I was on a Miami beach in August... But 34 degrees... Ohhh... Well then I guess I better run out and buy a coat right now.
It can’t gt cold. We have global warming. Just ask the paragon of honesty and knowledge, Al Gore.
Good. Maybe this will kill off the poison ivy on my farm.
Blinding Mountain Snowstorm to Unfold in the West
Translation, Early cold spell, maybe snow. Mild for a while, then big heavy blast, and spring will be late.
I got my degree in weather forecasting along with my mailman driver's license! ;}
Roundup will kill the poison ivy on your farm. I never heard of cold weather having much impact.
The birds will replant it for you though.
Joe Bastardi was on the money about Dallas! He predicted “unusual amounts of snow for Dallas...and a winter in Dallas that would be remembered for snow”
Well we got three snowstorms in Dallas (unusual!) including the infamous Valentines Day Massacare that dumped 14” or more of snow in one day in DFW
“Good. Maybe this will kill off the poison ivy on my farm.”
Fat chance, poison ivy and cockroaches are all that’s going to be left at the end of the world.
NWS forecasting ‘normal’ winter temps.
Slightly warmer in the mid-south, slightly cooler in the north and west.
As a transplanted upstate New Yorker now living in Central Texas, I knew there was a reason I kept all my sub-zero winter gear.
And privet. Privet laughs at Roundup, fire, being dug up, cut, mowed, you name it. It will outlast everything on the planet......
Old Farmers Almanac said a cold winter but not that cold.
Maybe it’ll wipe out the kudzu that keeps inching northward.
You forgot Kudzu....
Round up is fine for the back yard and we do use it but 8 acres is pretty tough. I spent the last two weekends detangling bind weed, brambles (aka wild rose) and poison ivy which had grown up with a few trash trees under the biggest tree on our property. I scrub down with poison ivy soap and creams and shower and wash my clothes but still get it. I think I need a gas mask and a flame thrower. This area had been sprayed with round up over the past three years.
We had significantly lower temps all year here in the Pacifist Northwest, and everyone is expecting a particularly nasty winter. Between yesterday and today, there will be about 22 inches of new snow in the Cascades, which is pretty early for that much accumulation at any altitude.
I had 3 cords of firewood delivered this year and we’ve already had the stove fired up several times, especially in the mornings last week when it was in the high 30’s at dawn.
A flame thrower sounds good. Make sure you’re upwind.
Yeah, and then in the Summer things will get real hot!
These stories are beyond stupid!
Hey, we might get hit by an asteroid too! Woe is us!
If I had eight acres and a herbicide sprayer I would write a satiric message in the grass that could be seen from space :0)
Check Joe Bastardi on Accuweather.com. His new winter forecast is up there and agrees with this one.
He is the best because he combines long term weather models with historical comparisons.
You are right about last year, he nailed it better than all the rest combined.
A situation can always be made better by the use of a flame thrower. They’re like the adult version of the suckers that doctors used to give to kids after getting a shot.
Just out of curiosity, how much is a cord of firewood going for in the Pacific NW? I’m in WV and was wondering about the differences in pricing between the two areas, considering both areas are heavily forested and fairly mountainous.
Round up is not effective on poison ivy. Go down to your county extension office, they will assist you with the proper sprays.
I use an axe to cut poison ivy vines out of trees. I found vines 3 inches in diameter. I use a mower on the rest. If you can mow it, it will eventually disappear.
Roundup will kill the poison ivy on your farm.
One chem. better than Round-up, ask for 2-4-D, kills broad leaf but not grass..... Tractor Supply.
We need to ask Joe Bastardi of Accuweather.
Reminds me of a quote from WWII...
“He’s a bastard...but he’s OUR bastard!”
(I can’t recall the exact basis of the quote; I think it may have
been Churchill commenting on Stalin.)
I paid $185 per cord of maple, spruce and alder; split, seasoned, and delivered. That’s been a pretty stable price for about four years now from the guy I deal with. I pay him in cash, and that keeps the price down too. I usually end up re-splitting some of the bigger pieces so they fit our stove, but I get excellent value for the money.
My heat pump simply will not keep the house as warm as the stove does when the temperature really drops. I use our split forced air system to circulate the heat between the front and back of the house, and turn the heat pump off at the breaker. If I regulate the stove properly, the front room stays at 73 degrees while the back stays at 70 regardless of how cold it gets outside.
I prefer Ortho brush B gone. Read the label of the bottle.
Buy the product that has the highest percentage of the active ingredient.
I’ll take the bone-chilling cold if it will shut up the “climate change” freak for a year or two.
Umm, wow. Talk about a difference. Year before last, I paid $115 a cord for Red Oak, White Oak, Hickory and Poplar. Granted, it was probably about 35-40% Poplar, but it was seasoned, split and delivered as well. I also paid in cash, but only bought two cords worth because of a lack of suitable space at the time.
I completely agree with you and understand about the heatpump. I rent now and have one in addition to a buck stove and I’m dreading this winter’s heating bills because of it. I hope the stove helps keep the gas bills down.
The “He’s a so and so, but he’s our so and so” line goes back to the 19th Century.
“If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favorable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.”
Fat chance. AGWT, recently rebranded as "Climate Change", is remarkably robust with respect to data. All observations confirm it at the 100% confidence level. And no force on earth can shut up a "climate change" freak.
Come to Nebraska, please! We’re overrun with the dang things!
Yay! That’ll drive all the hippies and Californicators out of my neck of the woods... 30-40 below ain’t good for much, but it IS good for that.
Is it on the paid side, because I can’t find anything except an old interview.
At my work, we’re particularly wary of the upcoming winter season. I work at a company that takes people to and from the Seattle airport. Two years ago, just before Christmas, we had an unexpected major snowfall. It was bad enough that we had major trouble getting up into the hilly areas around Bellevue, Redmond, and the east side, not to mention downtown Seattle. (Someone once said “Seattle must be a city of destiny. Why else would they build one at a 45-degree angle?”)
We had to cut back our service to just the scheduled stops we could get to, as well as designated areas that didn’t normally have scheduled stops. It turned our business on it’s ear for about three days, and produced some of the nastiest, most mean and profane phone calls I’ve ever had the displeasure to receive. Seattleites are normally passive-aggressive, but if you mess with their travel plans, they become gutter-crawlin’, venom-spittin’ MEAN. I mean, you should’ve heard some of the threats we received. Some of my fellow agents left work in tears from the abuse they were getting.
We created a new ‘snow-plan’ after that, and it’s posted on our website, so if anyone has any questions what is going to happen should we encounter those conditions again, they have no excuses like “nobody told me”. And, if the weather-guessers predictions hold true, we’re going to be using that snow plan this winter. I am NOT looking forward to this.
spraying with Roundup—
Instead read the label for products that are for woody brush-different product. I use it on trash trees, spraying the leaves, waiting a couple of weeks til dead- it takes out roots and all. Then I clip it near the ground and that is that. This kind of product is labeled for poison ivy.
I also sometimes cut a small trash tree, immediately (before the small trunk can seal over) brush it with full strength brush killer- wear heavy rubber gloves when you do this-that will kill down to the root also.
Actually, it’s been going on now (colder temps) for more than a year.
I always save my monthly electric bills from Puget Power.
Each month, it shows average temperature for the month, and the average temp for the same month last year.
I believe every month this year was colder than the same month last year, and every month last year was cooler than the same month in 2008.
I’ll have to dig them out and maybe do some stats...
I sure wish Clark Public Utilities would do that for us, but they would probably raise rates another 5% to pay for it.
I made a spreadsheet just to see what I had. It gave me 45 months of continuous data. Because I don’t have the stuff from 2006, I only got 37 months of Delta (this months temp versus same month last year).
Am I seeing global warming?
Well, not really. 37 months of delta added up to a total delta of -18 degrees F. So it would average out for three years to be, each month, about 1/2 degree cooler than the same month last year.
Spring 2008 (Apr, May, Jun) was quite a bit warmer than 2007 with a total delta for the 3 months of 14, or about 4.6 degrees per day. Spring of 2009 came back and probably ended up averaging out by being cooler than 2008, with a delta of -14 for the 3 months.
Winter 2008 and winter 2009 was about 2 degrees cooler than previous years. But winter 2010 really warmed up with a delta over 2009 of 15, or about 5 degrees F per day. After that, it cooled alot, with the delta for the next 5 months being -15, or 3 degrees per day for spring/early summer 2010.
The only thing that gave us any kind of summer at all was Sept, which was up a whopping 8 degrees per day over Sep of 2009.
So besides from a warm winter, probably because of El Nino, and a warm Sept., this year was cooler than usual.
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