Democrats at DEFCON 1: Is Christine O’Donnell now leading in internals?

HillBuzz ^ | 10/26/10 | hillbuzz

[truthfreedom]

...

But, Democrats are ferociously attacking CoD as hard as they attacked Scott Brown in Massachusetts. If she is so far behind, what is the point in beating up on this woman?

This is anecdotal, but I think I know why they are doing this…jusr like with Hottie McAwesome there are internals showing O’Donnell ahead.

Today I talked to a friend ftom Team Hillary who is a big Dem fundraiser. He told me that for the last week or so the DNC has been at DEFCON 1 leaning HARD on the rainmakers because they are terrified of a CoD win in Delaware.

The problem is some internal poll that apparently shows that a high percentage of Democrats early voting are voting straight ticket Republican instead…they are Democrats voting against Democrats.

...

[r9etb]

The last poll on your list is October 14.

I know. It's the latest available. The problem for O'Donnell is still to find a way to reverse the numbers in those polls. She needs a large majority of independents in order to win. Do you dispute that?

[onyx]

Dearest fishtalk,

Thank you very much for your most informative post! Oh my goodness, I learned a lot! Ahem, those democrats are cowards! No shows for “scheduled” debates!!! I guess they watched Christine slaughter the little man, Coons...LOL.

I am still picking up my jaw off the floor after learning from you that young Pete “Schwartzkopf” is a democrat! Good grief.

Very exciting that SARAH PALIN will be in Delaware for Christine.

Your calculations sound GOOD to me. I also figured it’ll have to be the union vote and the black vote to elect Coons, but unless the demonic democrats “get out the vote” like you said, ...well... I’m looking for *shock and awe* and I’m not changing my mind.

((((fishtalk))))

[r9etb]

Spoken like a true orbitologist - That is someone who runs in circles chasing their own tails - right?

Wow.... how very 3rd grade of you. Happily, my job satisfaction is based on actual accomplishments, and does not depend on your opinion.

One week from right now we will be seeing how wrong you were.

I'd be happy to be wrong -- one more seat in the Senate, after all. But I've learned, both professionally and otherwise, to not let my wishes and hopes get in the way of present reality.

[FreedomPoster]

>>Did you ever see a movie with zombies that walk around with dead expression on their faces and have no idea what they are doing? That is your typical Democrat!

OK, we have to throw this on the thread.

Bob Hope on Zombies and Democrats
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4a6YdNmK77k

[r9etb]

Sour grapes what?

Harping on Coons' advantages with regard to schools and such ... that's sour grapes. Sure, his family's money helped him out -- my family helped me out, too (though we were far from rich). But it was up to him to take advantage of the opportunities, and he has: Coons was very successful in school, and in his professional life.

Yes, his views are noxious, and as a candidate he would not fare very well against a stronger opponent -- one who could stand up to Coons' experience and background on more equal terms.

One "Christine lesson" is that it's vital to start early, and find and promote the best candidate(s) possible. Somebody (maybe on this thread, I can't recall) said that Ms. O'Donnell was the only one available to oppose Castle .... well, that's exactly the point. Finding a good candidate takes organization ... which is the next "Christine lesson." The Tea Party movement needs to get serious about organizing if it wants to start fielding serious candidates.

And plenty of non ideological moderates, Republicans, Independents, and Democrats will vote for Christine for any number of reasons.

But the available polls are showing those folks to be in the minority, and she cannot win in that case. She needs a significant majority of the independent vote, and polls to date show she hasn't got them. Maybe that will have changed by now ... but I'm guessing it won't have.

[FreeReign]

She needs a large majority of independents in order to win. Do you dispute that?

I would bet a good majority of independent Delawareans don't like Cap and Trade, Obamacare, amnesty, a trillion dollar stimulus, bailouts and bearded Marxism.

Do you dispute that?

[truthfreedom]

I’m not sure that’s what sour grapes is. Maybe some other word or phrase. Usu sour grapes has something to do with one person getting a specific thing and another person not. It would be sour grapes for the son of the woman that Robert Gore was dating before Chris Coons mom to complain that Chris Coons got the advantages and he didn’t.

I’m saying that he lacks the personal qualities that Christine has. Likeability.

[r9etb]

I take your refusal to answer my straightforward question, as agreement on the assertion that Ms. O'Donnell needs a large majority of independent voters in order to win.

I would bet a good majority of independent Delawareans don't like Cap and Trade, Obamacare, amnesty, a trillion dollar stimulus, bailouts and bearded Marxism. Do you dispute that?

I'm sure a lot of folks don't like those -- which (according to the polls, anyway) is apparently not enough to make them support Ms. O'Donnell.

[truthfreedom]

She needs

1) Strong Republican turnout advantage. Similar to what’s happening all over the country. +15 is the average nationally, and that’ll do. +18 would bring the parties to parity. It could be better, much better even.

2) Some small advantage among independents. You might not see that in polls. Conservative independents will turnout better than Liberal or Moderate independent. So, it could look like 50/50 in the polls with independents, but if the Conservative turnout is strong and the Liberal turnout is weak, she wins handily with independents.

[mrsmith]

"Come... must... vote... for... unhappy... little... bald... man!"

Being such a small state I'm expecting more of an impact in Delaware simply from O'Donnell's pleasantness than would be the case in a more populous state.

[r9etb]

I’m saying that he lacks the personal qualities that Christine has. Likeability.

True ... but whether it's sour grapes or some other perjorative, you were nevertheless harping on Coons' past advantages, as if those alone somehow made him worse than Christine O'Donnell -- you even made it sound like you thought it gives him an unfair advantage in this campaign.

Well, a good education is an advantage. But it's rather amazing that you should denigrate such a thing.

[The Citizen Soldier]

Spoken like a true orbitologist - That is someone who runs in circles chasing their own tails

Orbitologist - My vote for Word of the Day.

Applies to many posters I have read today here on FR.

[LKC32]

Interesting info. Look forward to find out more.

[truthfreedom]

All you need to do to imagine a Christine victory, to ease your worried mind, is look at the Rasmussen -11 and assume that Christine will make up that 11 points with turnout.

You might've seen the crosstabs on that Rasmussen. I haven't.

But you have to assume that Conservatives will most certainly vote for Christine and they will vote.

This is a midterm election. Typically low turnout in a midterm election. Check how many people voted in 2006 and 2008. Way more in 2008. Well Christine will draw Conservatives like Obama drew Liberals.

You seem to think that the Tea Party is bad at picking candidates. There are 6 clearly Tea Party candidates. O'Donnell, Paul, Miller, Angle, Lee, Buck. There's a very good chance we win all 6. Maybe, maybe not.

You seem to think that the GOP is better at picking candidates. Well, Delaware has fewer Conservatives than any state except Hawaii. Hawaii is 28, Delaware is 29. All the other states have more Conservatives than Delaware. She is Conservative in the state with the fewest conservatives (cept HI). She's down by 11 in the most recent poll. Others think the race is closer. All the GOP candidates in states with MORE CONSERVATIVES should be doing better, right?

Let's take a look at these candidates - picked not by the Tea Party, but the GOP Establishment.

Here's the State, the Candidate, and how much they're down by in the latest poll.

vermont - len britton -30
new york - jay townsend -28
new york - joe dioguardi -18
maryland - eric wargotz -17
oregon - jim huffman -16
hawaii - cam cavasso -13

Why aren't they doing better than Christine? Every state (cept HI) has more Conservatives than Delaware, so, that's more potential votes from Conservatives to the Republican. And they're more "moderate" which is what the GOP says the people want. Why aren't they doing better? Because Christine is a great candidate and they're nowhere near as good a candidate. There are no stars there, not even close.

Let's take a look at some pix.

I've got Cam from Hawaii, Jay from New York, and James Quall from the Tim and Eric show. Can you tell which is which?



Get my point there at all? The GOP does not know how to pick candidates. They look like they were hand picked by Ken Mehlman and Larry Craig.

[truthfreedom]

If your going to argue with this guy, mention that she won’t need too many indies. Conservative indies will be voting for Christine. Conservative indies are tea party. People for whom the Republican Party is too liberal. They will say they favor Christine and they most certainly will be voting for her. Polls of Indies are meaningless. Moderate indies and Liberal indies might say they’re voting for Coons or Christine, but they won’t be voting in anywhere near the numbers, percentage wise, of the Conservative Indies. Conservative Indies will be there, and will be there very very strong for Christine, and the other indies won’t be. That won’t show up in polls. Because all the indies will say they’re 10s, but the conservative indies really will be voting very very strong for christine. Conservative indies might be Christines strongest block. If they liked Mike Castle, they’d be Republicans.

That’s a factor that many are missing. All over the country there are sizeable numbers of Conservatives who don’t like the Republican Party because they think it’s too liberal, and they don’t join the Republicans Party because of that.

[william clark]

[FreeReign]

I would bet a good majority of independent Delawareans don't like Cap and Trade, Obamacare, amnesty, a trillion dollar stimulus, bailouts and bearded Marxism. Do you dispute that?

I take your refusal to answer my straightforward question, as agreement on the assertion that Ms. O'Donnell needs a large majority of independent voters in order to win.

I'm sure a lot of folks don't like those -- which (according to the polls, anyway) is apparently not enough to make them support Ms. O'Donnell.

It's in the final three weeks of a campaign, when the candidates debate, when the candidates buy add time, and when the independent voters determine who they will vote for.

I believe a good majority of independents in Deleware will turn out and vote for the candidate who doesn't support the big government punch list of items that I mentioned above.

Scott Brown was said to be down 10 or 15 points in the final weeks of his race. Massachusettes has a huge number of independents.

Apparently they turned to Brwon in the final week.

[truthfreedom]

No, I’m not saying any of that.

I’m saying hes a troll, a short bald man who is quite obnoxious.

That makes him a bad candidate.

Why are you quoting my statement and responding to something else I said.

He’s a troll. Christine is a star.

That’s what I’m saying. I’m not talking about that other stuff that I used to explain the situation we’re in.

[FreeReign]

Delawareans who don’t like Cap and Trade, Obamacare, amnesty, trillion dollar spending, bailouts and bearded Marxism will turn out in large numbers.

[MinuteGal]

CO'D may be "leading in internals"???

Be still, my beating heart!

Man, are we gonna party on FR next Tuesday night, or are we!

Woo hoo!

(...slapping my own cheek for being unproperly over-confident.....LOL)

Leni