Skip to comments.Democrats at DEFCON 1: Is Christine O’Donnell now leading in internals?
Posted on 10/26/2010 3:25:39 PM PDT by truthfreedom
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I bow completely to you.
You are right on every point.
TPTB = “The Powers That Be”...the elite, the establishment, and so on...
Thanks for the clarification.
I’ll point out that no matter the outcome of this COD election, those calling her an awful candidate seem to conveniently overlook one thing.
She’s all we had to get rid of Mike Castle.
We’ve tried so long to get that man out of there and the Delaware GOP were so smug that they never tried to train or groom a replacement. Although for the record COD is one of the nicest people. I know her personally and she’s a good, decent Christian woman, believe what you want.
But if there was out there some kind of former Eagle Scout turned marine commander ready for sainthood candidate in waiting, the Delaware GOP kept running the old fossel Castle over and over.
Since this is America and perish the thought that voters should have a say or anything, we had a right to throw Castle out. O’Donnell WAS the GOP nominee for 2008, a fact that those who call her an awful candidate seem to forget.
So if nothing else, well hey, we got Coons and he’ll probably vote for Cap and Trade. Mike Castle DID vote for Cap and Trade in the House, we know this for a fact. So it’s not much of a stretch to say he’d likely have voted for it in the senate.
If Coons win, well at least we got a Democrat voting like a Democrat and us silly moron voters, that’s exactly how we wanted it.
Or maybe those who think COD is such an awful candidate would have preferred Mike Castle?
Yeah, I’d rather have Coons than Castle.
She is very pretty. Very cute. Very much the sort of girl that every good conservative boy had a crush on in high school. But that's both a blessing and a curse. Her demeanor is just not what one normally associates with candidates for high office. She doesn't come across as a Senator, and that lends itself to ridicule.
That scares the Democrats.
No, it doesn't.
Based on her performances in the debates, she should have rock solid conservative support. They will be voting for her.
As they most likely would have done anyway, but that's not enough to make up the large difference between R and D registration in Delaware. Meaning that the operative question remains: was her debate performance sufficient to reverse her numbers among the independents, from her previous trailing position to the needed large majority? We'll see what newer polls have to say about that, but my bet would be against any large swings among independents.
Where in the first amendment? was huge for conservatives.
As a "gotcha" sort of statement, maybe. However, given again that the conservatives were going to vote for her anyway, how do you suppose that little exchange played among the independents? Was it enough to reverse her polling deficit among them?
Probably not. And the truth is that Coons' response was actually correct -- according to a long series of court decisions, the idea of "separation of church and state" defines the working interpretation of the Establishment Clause, even if the exact words themselves are not.
I agree. Plus, what is the upshot to beating O’Donnell because Barry came in to save the day? What is the media spin on that victory, since they have portrayed COD as a crackpot who is a joke for a candidate?
I knew we shoulda nominated Castle.
I’ve heard over and over and over and over that “a conservative can’t win in this state” or “a conservative can’t win in that state”.
This is certainly a test of that.
If Christine wins, a conservative can win in any state with as many Conservatives as Delaware or more.
If Christine loses, some would argue that a conservative can’t win with as many Conservatives as Delaware or less.
Rhode Island has the same amount of Conservatives as Delaware.
Hawaii has fewer Conservatives than Delaware.
Every other state has MORE CONSERVATIVES than Delaware.
So, if Christine wins, we can run Conservatives in every state and can win in every state except Hawaii.
And that’s what people on the RINO side and the Left know full well.
The left is fully happy being opposed by a party that doesn’t really try to undo any of the terrible things the left has brought us.
The RINOs don’t want to lose their jobs.
Coons is a nasty troll. Short bald trust fund guy. He gets the inventor money, but doesn’t have the inventor gene. He has the “inhereted wealth” gene. The entitlement gene. I’d rather his step dad Robert Gore be Senator. At least Robert Gore did something by inventing Gore-tex. Coons just took that privileged background and is buying himself a political career with it.
If he wasn’t super rich and didn’t have his super rich dad buying his way into these schools, if he had a background like Christines, would he be anywhere near the US Senate?
Of course not. He’s a terrible candidate. Christine is a great candidate. Especially for Delaware.
Yes. If everyone in DE could spend five minutes with each of these candidates, Christine would win 90 to 10. She really is who we all would want representing us. She has made mistakes and learned from them. She is smart but humble. She has character. If she wins, she will be among the finest senators who have ever served.
I would be more than pleased to see her in the U.S. Senate come November 3rd...I think she is a fine candidate.
Well let me say that you did a fine job of illustrating how Coons would be a big nothing burger were it not for his wealth. Wealth Christine did not have.
But she’s an attractive female and just doesn’t present as a senator and that leaves her open to ridicule.
This is how the elite Blue Blood Ruling Class sees things.
Christine O’Donnell is just the nicest, most pleasant person, she believes in her faith, she’s been well liked since 2005 here in Delaware. It’s not the woman fell out of the sky. She was also Delaware’s GOP nominee for senator in 2008...my how we forget that fact.
It’s not that Christine is such an awful candidate...it’s that she’s not rich, didn’t go to Harvard, is an attractive female.....
WE SHOULDA NOMINATED CASTLE....WHAT FOOLS WE ARE!
I think to call her someone prime for ridicule....it’s just such a mean thing to say. Yeah I’ll allow that the liberals probably consider COD someone to mock. They HATE Christians and God knows a nice attractive woman is the stuff to throw darts at.
But to not see that a midget burger bald nothing sandwich Marxist like Coons would be an awful candidate too if he had no money to buy friends in high places, to send him overseas to come back and hate America, ...well I guess to some folks it’s really all about wealth and privelage, not who you really are.
Well okay, the liberals will say it because the liberals are filled with hate. But to see someone supposed to be on our side call this really nice person an awful candidate, it really hurts. I consider Christine almost like a daughter.
I tell you, if you had time to spend with Christine you’d be proud to have her run for senator. Well Castle lovers, Karl Rove....those kind of entrenched, they disparage her.
The Ruling Class is not happy with Christine.
The consensus -- although no more than speculation at this point -- is that Castle would have defeated Coons, having already won numerous statewide elections as a Republican over the past three decades, despite the large preponderance of Democrats in the state.
Being ahead of O'Donnell doesn't mean that Coons has suddenly become a good candidate; rather, it suggthat he's simply more electable than O'Donnell, if only because of the large disparity of D vs. R voters.
If Christine loses, some would argue that a conservative cant win with as many Conservatives as Delaware or less.
Some might argue that; I wouldn't. Had more time and effort been put into finding a more credible conservative candidate for Delaware, I would be willing to bet that person would have a fair shot at beating Coons.
If he wasnt super rich and didnt have his super rich dad buying his way into these schools, if he had a background like Christines, would he be anywhere near the US Senate?
Spoken like a true orbitologist -
That is someone who runs in circles chasing their own tails - right?
One week from right now we will be seeing how wrong you were.
Sour grapes what?
I’m just saying that his own personal qualities make him a bad candidate. Bad candidates can get far with a lot of money, and a resume built on top of working for his dad’s company for 8 years. It’s not his style, his zazz, his good looks, charm or anything. Christine has all of those things, but not the traditional resume.
Right about the conservative in Delaware. If she lost, and I think she’ll win, the counter argument in favor of a conservative in Delaware is something about her personal qualities.
The main point there is though, that only Hawaii has fewer Conservatives.
If they want to use Christine as an example of what happens when you nominate a Conservative, we can say 100% truthfully, that every other state you want to apply the “Christine lesson” to has even more Conservatives than Delaware. But X state has more Conservatives, one would say.
Christine will have extremely high turnout among Conservatives. We talk about Republican turnout, but Conservative turnout for Christine will be over 60%. The same number of Conservatives and Republicans in DE - 29% - but they’re not the same people. And plenty of non ideological moderates, Republicans, Independents, and Democrats will vote for Christine for any number of reasons.
Some moderates will hold their nose and vote for Christine because they don’t want to continue the Obama agenda.
Coons is not as personally popular as Manchin in WV. It’s not a case where Coons will outperform Obama like Manchin is appearing to do in WV.
The last poll on your list is October 14.
I remember the Hillary types from two years ago. They were mad. They were angry...on and on.
O'Donnell is tea party while Rossi and Fiorina are not. Obviously the libs would rather pile on tea party type candidates.
You don't see that.
A key thing to note about this race is that the media holds a set of beliefs that the average American does not believe.
They’re trying to sell the leftist idea, the elite ideas, the anti religion, the pro gay, etc etc. And Christine is the first person to go directly against almost everything they believe. It’s a direct attack on them and everything they stand for. Good vs Evil. And they saw that and made everything about her. They don’t understand that they aren’t popular with the person right in the middle. And that’s where all this is coming from.
We’re looking at a huge tsunami, right? It looks that way.
And what has been a large part of the media strategy to keep
that tsunamie small? Attack Christine. How’s that going media? How your Democrats doing in the early voting?
The desire of the media to attack Christianity is stronger than their ability to understand that attacking Christianity will lose them votes. That fact, that the media, time and time again, will attack Christianity and Christians even if it’s going to hurt them, was known to many here, by me and others, way before the primary. Did the media point out anything about what the Republicans would actually do if they were elected that swing voters might care about? Nope.
Just that Christine agrees with Clarence Thomas on the Establishment Clause. More people than the media thinks agree with Christine on that. And, it’s not an issue.
But the media just can’t help themselves. Christine has stayed on message. Coons is rubber stamp for Obama. The media is talking about irrelevancies, because it’s their sacred cow being attacked. And all over the place Republicans are strolling easily to victory.
We gave the Democrats their message “attack Christine, here, look. You think it’ll work for you, and we know it won’t. Win Win.” Lovely beautiful Christine with a normal background without wealth, attack her, and be brutal about it. Average people will not respond well to that. The media does not understand average people, does not like average people, and doesn’t realize that average people would be sickened by the attacks on Christine.
And I doubt he saw the crosstabs on that one. Rasmussen keeps the details of their polls available only to Platinum members.
I know. It's the latest available. The problem for O'Donnell is still to find a way to reverse the numbers in those polls. She needs a large majority of independents in order to win. Do you dispute that?
Thank you very much for your most informative post! Oh my goodness, I learned a lot! Ahem, those democrats are cowards! No shows for “scheduled” debates!!! I guess they watched Christine slaughter the little man, Coons...LOL.
I am still picking up my jaw off the floor after learning from you that young Pete “Schwartzkopf” is a democrat! Good grief.
Very exciting that SARAH PALIN will be in Delaware for Christine.
Your calculations sound GOOD to me. I also figured it’ll have to be the union vote and the black vote to elect Coons, but unless the demonic democrats “get out the vote” like you said, ...well... I’m looking for *shock and awe* and I’m not changing my mind.
Wow.... how very 3rd grade of you. Happily, my job satisfaction is based on actual accomplishments, and does not depend on your opinion.
One week from right now we will be seeing how wrong you were.
I'd be happy to be wrong -- one more seat in the Senate, after all. But I've learned, both professionally and otherwise, to not let my wishes and hopes get in the way of present reality.
>>Did you ever see a movie with zombies that walk around with dead expression on their faces and have no idea what they are doing? That is your typical Democrat!
OK, we have to throw this on the thread.
Bob Hope on Zombies and Democrats
Harping on Coons' advantages with regard to schools and such ... that's sour grapes. Sure, his family's money helped him out -- my family helped me out, too (though we were far from rich). But it was up to him to take advantage of the opportunities, and he has: Coons was very successful in school, and in his professional life.
Yes, his views are noxious, and as a candidate he would not fare very well against a stronger opponent -- one who could stand up to Coons' experience and background on more equal terms.
One "Christine lesson" is that it's vital to start early, and find and promote the best candidate(s) possible. Somebody (maybe on this thread, I can't recall) said that Ms. O'Donnell was the only one available to oppose Castle .... well, that's exactly the point. Finding a good candidate takes organization ... which is the next "Christine lesson." The Tea Party movement needs to get serious about organizing if it wants to start fielding serious candidates.
And plenty of non ideological moderates, Republicans, Independents, and Democrats will vote for Christine for any number of reasons.
But the available polls are showing those folks to be in the minority, and she cannot win in that case. She needs a significant majority of the independent vote, and polls to date show she hasn't got them. Maybe that will have changed by now ... but I'm guessing it won't have.
I would bet a good majority of independent Delawareans don't like Cap and Trade, Obamacare, amnesty, a trillion dollar stimulus, bailouts and bearded Marxism.
Do you dispute that?
I’m not sure that’s what sour grapes is. Maybe some other word or phrase. Usu sour grapes has something to do with one person getting a specific thing and another person not. It would be sour grapes for the son of the woman that Robert Gore was dating before Chris Coons mom to complain that Chris Coons got the advantages and he didn’t.
I’m saying that he lacks the personal qualities that Christine has. Likeability.
I would bet a good majority of independent Delawareans don't like Cap and Trade, Obamacare, amnesty, a trillion dollar stimulus, bailouts and bearded Marxism. Do you dispute that?
I'm sure a lot of folks don't like those -- which (according to the polls, anyway) is apparently not enough to make them support Ms. O'Donnell.
1) Strong Republican turnout advantage. Similar to what’s happening all over the country. +15 is the average nationally, and that’ll do. +18 would bring the parties to parity. It could be better, much better even.
2) Some small advantage among independents. You might not see that in polls. Conservative independents will turnout better than Liberal or Moderate independent. So, it could look like 50/50 in the polls with independents, but if the Conservative turnout is strong and the Liberal turnout is weak, she wins handily with independents.
Being such a small state I'm expecting more of an impact in Delaware simply from O'Donnell's pleasantness than would be the case in a more populous state.
True ... but whether it's sour grapes or some other perjorative, you were nevertheless harping on Coons' past advantages, as if those alone somehow made him worse than Christine O'Donnell -- you even made it sound like you thought it gives him an unfair advantage in this campaign.
Well, a good education is an advantage. But it's rather amazing that you should denigrate such a thing.
Orbitologist - My vote for Word of the Day.
Applies to many posters I have read today here on FR.
Interesting info. Look forward to find out more.
If your going to argue with this guy, mention that she won’t need too many indies. Conservative indies will be voting for Christine. Conservative indies are tea party. People for whom the Republican Party is too liberal. They will say they favor Christine and they most certainly will be voting for her. Polls of Indies are meaningless. Moderate indies and Liberal indies might say they’re voting for Coons or Christine, but they won’t be voting in anywhere near the numbers, percentage wise, of the Conservative Indies. Conservative Indies will be there, and will be there very very strong for Christine, and the other indies won’t be. That won’t show up in polls. Because all the indies will say they’re 10s, but the conservative indies really will be voting very very strong for christine. Conservative indies might be Christines strongest block. If they liked Mike Castle, they’d be Republicans.
That’s a factor that many are missing. All over the country there are sizeable numbers of Conservatives who don’t like the Republican Party because they think it’s too liberal, and they don’t join the Republicans Party because of that.
I take your refusal to answer my straightforward question, as agreement on the assertion that Ms. O'Donnell needs a large majority of independent voters in order to win.
I'm sure a lot of folks don't like those -- which (according to the polls, anyway) is apparently not enough to make them support Ms. O'Donnell.
It's in the final three weeks of a campaign, when the candidates debate, when the candidates buy add time, and when the independent voters determine who they will vote for.
I believe a good majority of independents in Deleware will turn out and vote for the candidate who doesn't support the big government punch list of items that I mentioned above.
Scott Brown was said to be down 10 or 15 points in the final weeks of his race. Massachusettes has a huge number of independents.
Apparently they turned to Brwon in the final week.
No, I’m not saying any of that.
I’m saying hes a troll, a short bald man who is quite obnoxious.
That makes him a bad candidate.
Why are you quoting my statement and responding to something else I said.
He’s a troll. Christine is a star.
That’s what I’m saying. I’m not talking about that other stuff that I used to explain the situation we’re in.
Delawareans who don’t like Cap and Trade, Obamacare, amnesty, trillion dollar spending, bailouts and bearded Marxism will turn out in large numbers.
Be still, my beating heart!
Man, are we gonna party on FR next Tuesday night, or are we!
(...slapping my own cheek for being unproperly over-confident.....LOL)
I think that’s probably true. I assume that they’re trying to make the most realistic guesses about turnout possible. If they think that Democrats aren’t sticking with their candidate, they know what that’ll mean in Delaware. So they’re doing the turnout math a little differently than the pollsters, and they probably have turnout insights we don’t have.
I will say that polls might not pick up on the fact that Conservative Independents will be voting much much more than Moderate Independents and Liberal Independents.
Conservative Independents are Conservatives who for whatever reason (Republicans too liberal, don’t care much for Mike Castle) didn’t join the Republican Party. Those are the ones who really should be fired up to vote. You don’t see too many Moderate or Liberal Democrats with the same distaste for the Democrat or Republican party as the Conservative indies have for the Republican. You might find a bigger enthusiasm gap between the excited Conservative indies and the apathetic Liberal indies than between the Republicans and the Democrats. And that’s +15 in early voting. +18 equalizes the parties. And the Democrats are seeing a ton of Democrats voting Republican? I’m not counting on that one too much, but I can imagine that it might be there. And Christine definitely could be appealing to any number of Democrat voting blocks. Not all Democrats hate religion. There are a few old Catholic Dems in New Castle county who remember what it was like pre Everson, and they aren’t all wonderfully happy about the dereligionizing of America.
>>>how very 3rd grade of you<<<
Well my roommate in college was a pomologist...
Think I didn’t have fun with that...
Referred to him as my fruity roomie...
That doesn’t sit well with a navy vet...
Of course now that we are both septuagenarians, we laugh about things like that.
I guess my eyesight isn't so good. I was thinking that there might be some problems if your roommate was a pornologist.
so a real poll is what? pone done by a liberal like the PPP or gallup polls? Or maybe a real poll is one like say from CBS or NBC/WSJ?
the TEA Party express poll before the primary was the ONLY one that got it right. I’ll take the TPE poll over a “real liberal” poll anyday. The fact that the TCJ poll confirms the TPE poll shows that both polls can be treated as “real” polls.
Futhermore the omission of “real” polls on this race is also a data point. If COd was down double digits the LSM would be putting poll after poll out. Their polls are telling them the race is getting close and hence the absence of any “real” polls.
the question you should be asking yourself is where are the national polls on this race. No gallup, Rass, or even PPP poll has been released on this race in the last 10 days or so. The omission is the answer to where COD is atm in the race. If COD was double digits behind the polls would be headlined in ever newspaper in the country. the fact that no left leaning pollster has released numbers on this race recently is all the answer you need. the rac eis within the MOE atm IMO and the TPE and TCJ polls confirm this.
Brown took 3 weeks because McConnell wanted him to take three weeks so that the debt ceiling could be voted on without any GOP votes. Brown got a big office for his playing nice with the leadership on that one. Brown was seated within a day or so after that vote.
agreed. A Castle defeat was worth it.
And COD wins by 5pts on NOV2
Rasmussen is good.
Listen, everybody here really should know what a real poll looks like.
There are pdf’s with crosstabs and all the rest. Some can be 20 pages long. They’re full of useful information.
In the primary, the tpe polls were good. This most recent one was iffy at best. We didn’t see any numbers at all except 6 points.
I need a lot more detail. The primary polling at least has a name of a polling firm (NSON) attached.
There has to be more there to be taken seriously.
2 people making up the same stuff do not confirm either of the polls.
Hey, if Christine is finding the TCJ “poll” as useful to keep the troops motivated, great. But there’s no evidence that TCJ ever actually took a poll.
I think the TPE did do polling in Sept. I think that they did do polling recently, and someone here did get a call yesterday or today from Utah, where NSON is located. But they did a pretty bad job of putting out a nice friendly reliable appearing webpage with a poll with any numbers on it. But TPE is a reliable brand name with a solid track record.
And I do think that we’re at 6. I personally do not just believe whatever anyone tells me even if it’s something that I already believe. I come up with a theory, and then I test that theory with good data. And I just don’t think that TCJ is good data, although I do agree with the 6.
As far as facts go the fact that Obama and BIden went to DE shows the race is close, the fact that Coons agreed to debate COD several times means the race is close (when races are not close those leading in the polls do not debate often if at all) add into this mix the TCJ poll and the TPE poll both confirming the facts on the ground. finally the absence of any “left leaning” poll results.
this race is a headliner grabber. All pollsters understand that and if the polls where showing a race where Coons was winning big it would be news. Since they have been no polls released for 10 days or so tells anyone that is paying attention the results are not what the LSM wants. Thus omission. then there is the fact that coons went negative on COD this week. Not something you do if you are leading in the polls. It is something you do to stop a candidate's surge.
Add it all up and the race is close. I understand you want cross tabs and likely voter numbers but no poll so far this year has been very good because the pollsters can not get the turnout models correct. TPE has a good track record.
One final fact. Palin is coming in on OCt 31. She would not do that if the polls showed COD down by double digits. A close race is enough for Palin to take risks. She will not take a risk like this on a race with COD down by double digits. It just isn't done in politics.
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