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Democrats at DEFCON 1: Is Christine O’Donnell now leading in internals?
HillBuzz ^ | 10/26/10 | hillbuzz

Posted on 10/26/2010 3:25:39 PM PDT by truthfreedom

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To: unseen1

TCJ IS NOT ACTUALLY DOING POLLS. THEY ARE JUST MAKING THINGS UP.

If they actually called 1000 people, costing many many dollars, don’t you think they’d type up all the many results in a neat looking pdf?

Nope. They would provide exactly what you’d see if you were just making it up. Right.

TCJ IS LYING. THEY’RE SAYING THEY’RE DOING POLLS BUT AREN’T DOING POLLS. THEY’RE JUST MAKING UP NUMBERS THAT SOUND GOOD.

If you remove TCJ from your analysis, it sounds ok.

I think we’re about 6, but I won’t allow a fake poll to cloud my judgment. And I don’t want anyone else trying to cloud my judgment either.

“And you have to add in the fact that 2 different people were making up the same thing. The 2 fake polls verified themselves”

I think Christine wins and I’ve thought that Christine was going to win since May. But not based on fake polls.

She’s a superstar, and Coons is a troll, and Christine wins even in the state with the 2nd fewest number of Conservatives.


151 posted on 10/27/2010 12:57:45 AM PDT by truthfreedom
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To: The Citizen Soldier; DelaWhere

For grins, I suggest you research the word a little more. You will find that it may not mean what most here automatically assume it to mean at first glance. There’s a clever, obscure and slippery ambiguity to it which renders it perfectly suited to certain types of online sophistry.


152 posted on 10/27/2010 4:38:36 AM PDT by tarheelswamprat
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To: truthfreedom
TCJ is not making things up. they are conducting polling: From their website: Now before we start disputing claims, I’d like to answer many of the burning questions of TCJ Research’s most beloved skeptics: How are the polls conducted: Each TCJ Research poll is conducted via automated phone call. Our question structure is similar to that of the other pollsters. Our pollster starts by asking “Press 1 if you are a registered voter, Press 2 if you are not”. Those who are registered are then asked: “What party, if any, are you affiliated with: Republican, Democrat, Other, or None?”. As for candidates we ask: “If the race were held tomorrow, who would you vote for: the Republican (Insert Name) or the Democrat (Insert Name)?”. They also ask what ideology the voter aligns with: Liberal, Conservative, Moderate. We don’t release the crosstabs simply because we don’t have access to them; that’s part of our deal with our polling firm, which we’ll talk more about shortly. http://theconservativejournal.wordpress.com/ more from the website: Who conducts your polling: This question has to be the most complicated. I have a friend who runs a marketing firm and agreed to do our polls on the grounds that it could be done quietly. Not for nefarious reasons, though, as some have suggested. He has to think of this from a business perspective and he doesn’t want clients to get the wrong idea because he is polling for a conservative site, in addition to the fact that elections are hard to predict and he doesn’t want inaccuracies to make clients wary of his services. He does marketing research, which is much more stable than political polling. It’s his first foray in this and we’ve made that clear from day 1. As I’ve said numerous times, we post the highlights we’re given in follow-up analysis. For those who don’t feel the need to cry foul, or those who need just a little bit more convincing, allow me to toot our own horn for a minute to win you over. Our Ohio Governor’s race poll that was taken on 10/16 showed a 3-point race between Republican John Kasich and Democrat Ted Strickland. At the time, the 3 most recent previous polls showed Kasich up a much larger 10, 8, and 6 points. We saw our polls being dismissed right and left because they deviated strongly from the “norm”. The following set of polls showed a result shockingly similar to ours, all with movement toward to Strickland. When we released our poll for Barney Frank’s House race against Republican Sean Bielat, we had zero points for comparison. There had been, at the time, no independent polling of this race. Our poll showed an 11-point lead in Frank’s favor. Reaction to this poll was similar to the poll above, in that most said our “conservative bias” prevented an accurate study. Three days later, an independent pollster released a result that was shockingly similar; Frank was up 12 over Bielat. And finally, our Christine O’Donnell polls were the first to point to a surge in her favor following her debate against Democrat Chris Coons. While our poll still gave Coons a strong lead, it showed O’Donnell down only 10, much less than the 19-20 point deficit previous polls had reported. Following our poll, numerous other polls reported the gap closing to 11 and 12 point margins. Again, the chances of our “made-up” polls showing trends in 3 cases is an eerie coincidence, especially considering the relatively low number of polls we’ve released. Also, our polls have been featured on Fox News throughout October. Say what you want about Fox News stance on the issues, but it’s questionable to say that they’d post a poll that was, as some have called us, “bogus”.
153 posted on 10/27/2010 5:39:04 AM PDT by unseen1
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To: tarheelswamprat

Yeah, I know, but it wouldn’t have been as punny...


154 posted on 10/27/2010 6:12:21 AM PDT by DelaWhere (Better to be prepared one year early than one day late!)
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To: Carling

That’s another good line of reasoning.

The race has to be closer than polls are showing.

I can’t think of another plausible explanation for President Obama to campaign in DE.


155 posted on 10/27/2010 7:37:14 AM PDT by stylin_geek (Never underestimate the power of government to distort markets)
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To: truthfreedom
He’s a troll. Christine is a star.

OK, Coons is a troll. And Ms. O'Donnell is a very nice girl who is in over her head.

156 posted on 10/27/2010 7:42:21 AM PDT by r9etb
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To: unseen1

Thanks, I’d assumed they weren’t real polls myself.
From the methodology stated they are better than I’d thought.


157 posted on 10/27/2010 9:58:54 AM PDT by mrsmith
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To: mrsmith

Yeah, definitely.

A paragraph of excuses is a good reason to believe that a completely unknown blog will all of a sudden be able to do more polls than PPP or Rasmussen.

TCJ RESEARCH POLLS ARE COMPLETELY MADE UP.


158 posted on 10/27/2010 10:20:30 AM PDT by truthfreedom
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To: r9etb

Christine is a superstar.

And that’s why she’s going to win.

And of course, Republicans = motivated, Democrats = not motivated.


159 posted on 10/27/2010 10:27:46 AM PDT by truthfreedom
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To: unseen1

TCJ IS COMPLETELY FICTIONAL STUFF.

TCJ’S FICTIONAL POLLS MIGHT MAKE YOU HAPPY, BUT THEY’RE STILL FICTIONAL.

And paragraphs are your friends.


160 posted on 10/27/2010 10:29:06 AM PDT by truthfreedom
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To: mrsmith

NOPE, THEY’RE STILL MADE UP.

YOU CAN MAKE UP A METHODOLOGY.

THERE’S NO SUBSTITUTE FOR DATA.


161 posted on 10/27/2010 10:31:31 AM PDT by truthfreedom
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To: mrsmith

Np. I am tired of people praising polls like Gallup and PPP who are liberals as “real” polls and then when a conservative pollster comes around people say its not a “real poll” the mainstream media trys to downplay the conservative pollsters. Rassmusean is a good example and he is more center right than right of center. Conservatives need to blare Conservative polls and conservative pollsters not cut out their legs IMO


162 posted on 10/27/2010 10:31:46 AM PDT by unseen1
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To: unseen1; truthfreedom

The TCJ polls are practically FREE as described.
A fellow who already has the dialing program uses it when unoccupied.

Polls that use voter registration lists instead of random dialing are much better, but they cost big money.

I give the TCJ polls a large MOE though.

Interestingly, after a week of no outside group expenditures on this race, the big daddy stopgap Dem PAC “Commonsense Ten” reported spending $45,000 on a Coons mailer yesterday. Not a lot of dough but it indicates some problem for Coons.


163 posted on 10/27/2010 10:48:13 AM PDT by mrsmith
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To: mrsmith

Well I agree the MOE is probably bigger than other polls. It does pick up trends very well.


164 posted on 10/27/2010 11:27:22 AM PDT by unseen1
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To: mrsmith

No doubt that Coons is floundering.


165 posted on 10/27/2010 1:46:46 PM PDT by truthfreedom
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