Democrats at DEFCON 1: Is Christine O’Donnell now leading in internals?

HillBuzz ^ | 10/26/10 | hillbuzz

[truthfreedom]

I think that’s probably true. I assume that they’re trying to make the most realistic guesses about turnout possible. If they think that Democrats aren’t sticking with their candidate, they know what that’ll mean in Delaware. So they’re doing the turnout math a little differently than the pollsters, and they probably have turnout insights we don’t have.

I will say that polls might not pick up on the fact that Conservative Independents will be voting much much more than Moderate Independents and Liberal Independents.

Conservative Independents are Conservatives who for whatever reason (Republicans too liberal, don’t care much for Mike Castle) didn’t join the Republican Party. Those are the ones who really should be fired up to vote. You don’t see too many Moderate or Liberal Democrats with the same distaste for the Democrat or Republican party as the Conservative indies have for the Republican. You might find a bigger enthusiasm gap between the excited Conservative indies and the apathetic Liberal indies than between the Republicans and the Democrats. And that’s +15 in early voting. +18 equalizes the parties. And the Democrats are seeing a ton of Democrats voting Republican? I’m not counting on that one too much, but I can imagine that it might be there. And Christine definitely could be appealing to any number of Democrat voting blocks. Not all Democrats hate religion. There are a few old Catholic Dems in New Castle county who remember what it was like pre Everson, and they aren’t all wonderfully happy about the dereligionizing of America.

[duckln]

O'Donnell is still to find a way to reverse the numbers in those polls Watch her latest interview, and the tone of the 'callers'. I think she's on her way reversing and building on the Ras no of -11.

http://www.wdel.com/story.php?id=611976676638

[DelaWhere]

>>>how very 3rd grade of you<<<

Well my roommate in college was a pomologist...

Think I didn’t have fun with that...

Referred to him as my fruity roomie...

That doesn’t sit well with a navy vet...

Of course now that we are both septuagenarians, we laugh about things like that.

[wideminded]

Well my roommate in college was a pomologist.

I guess my eyesight isn't so good. I was thinking that there might be some problems if your roommate was a pornologist.

[unseen1]

so a real poll is what? pone done by a liberal like the PPP or gallup polls? Or maybe a real poll is one like say from CBS or NBC/WSJ?

the TEA Party express poll before the primary was the ONLY one that got it right. I’ll take the TPE poll over a “real liberal” poll anyday. The fact that the TCJ poll confirms the TPE poll shows that both polls can be treated as “real” polls.

Futhermore the omission of “real” polls on this race is also a data point. If COd was down double digits the LSM would be putting poll after poll out. Their polls are telling them the race is getting close and hence the absence of any “real” polls.

[unseen1]

the question you should be asking yourself is where are the national polls on this race. No gallup, Rass, or even PPP poll has been released on this race in the last 10 days or so. The omission is the answer to where COD is atm in the race. If COD was double digits behind the polls would be headlined in ever newspaper in the country. the fact that no left leaning pollster has released numbers on this race recently is all the answer you need. the rac eis within the MOE atm IMO and the TPE and TCJ polls confirm this.

[unseen1]

Brown took 3 weeks because McConnell wanted him to take three weeks so that the debt ceiling could be voted on without any GOP votes. Brown got a big office for his playing nice with the leadership on that one. Brown was seated within a day or so after that vote.

[unseen1]

agreed. A Castle defeat was worth it.

And COD wins by 5pts on NOV2

[truthfreedom]

Rasmussen is good.

Listen, everybody here really should know what a real poll looks like.

There are pdf’s with crosstabs and all the rest. Some can be 20 pages long. They’re full of useful information.

In the primary, the tpe polls were good. This most recent one was iffy at best. We didn’t see any numbers at all except 6 points.

I need a lot more detail. The primary polling at least has a name of a polling firm (NSON) attached.

There has to be more there to be taken seriously.

2 people making up the same stuff do not confirm either of the polls.

Hey, if Christine is finding the TCJ “poll” as useful to keep the troops motivated, great. But there’s no evidence that TCJ ever actually took a poll.

I think the TPE did do polling in Sept. I think that they did do polling recently, and someone here did get a call yesterday or today from Utah, where NSON is located. But they did a pretty bad job of putting out a nice friendly reliable appearing webpage with a poll with any numbers on it. But TPE is a reliable brand name with a solid track record.

And I do think that we’re at 6. I personally do not just believe whatever anyone tells me even if it’s something that I already believe. I come up with a theory, and then I test that theory with good data. And I just don’t think that TCJ is good data, although I do agree with the 6.

[unseen1]

While I understand your points I am becoming increasingly convinced that the pollsters including Rasmussen are left leaning. The only time they start to get close to the real votes is a day or two before the election. Then they use their “success” to push the left’s narrative for the next two years. I don't trust any poll ATM.

As far as facts go the fact that Obama and BIden went to DE shows the race is close, the fact that Coons agreed to debate COD several times means the race is close (when races are not close those leading in the polls do not debate often if at all) add into this mix the TCJ poll and the TPE poll both confirming the facts on the ground. finally the absence of any “left leaning” poll results.

this race is a headliner grabber. All pollsters understand that and if the polls where showing a race where Coons was winning big it would be news. Since they have been no polls released for 10 days or so tells anyone that is paying attention the results are not what the LSM wants. Thus omission. then there is the fact that coons went negative on COD this week. Not something you do if you are leading in the polls. It is something you do to stop a candidate's surge.

Add it all up and the race is close. I understand you want cross tabs and likely voter numbers but no poll so far this year has been very good because the pollsters can not get the turnout models correct. TPE has a good track record.

One final fact. Palin is coming in on OCt 31. She would not do that if the polls showed COD down by double digits. A close race is enough for Palin to take risks. She will not take a risk like this on a race with COD down by double digits. It just isn't done in politics.

[truthfreedom]

TCJ IS NOT ACTUALLY DOING POLLS. THEY ARE JUST MAKING THINGS UP.

If they actually called 1000 people, costing many many dollars, don’t you think they’d type up all the many results in a neat looking pdf?

Nope. They would provide exactly what you’d see if you were just making it up. Right.

TCJ IS LYING. THEY’RE SAYING THEY’RE DOING POLLS BUT AREN’T DOING POLLS. THEY’RE JUST MAKING UP NUMBERS THAT SOUND GOOD.

If you remove TCJ from your analysis, it sounds ok.

I think we’re about 6, but I won’t allow a fake poll to cloud my judgment. And I don’t want anyone else trying to cloud my judgment either.

“And you have to add in the fact that 2 different people were making up the same thing. The 2 fake polls verified themselves”

I think Christine wins and I’ve thought that Christine was going to win since May. But not based on fake polls.

She’s a superstar, and Coons is a troll, and Christine wins even in the state with the 2nd fewest number of Conservatives.

[tarheelswamprat]

For grins, I suggest you research the word a little more. You will find that it may not mean what most here automatically assume it to mean at first glance. There’s a clever, obscure and slippery ambiguity to it which renders it perfectly suited to certain types of online sophistry.

[unseen1]

TCJ is not making things up. they are conducting polling: From their website: Now before we start disputing claims, I’d like to answer many of the burning questions of TCJ Research’s most beloved skeptics: How are the polls conducted: Each TCJ Research poll is conducted via automated phone call. Our question structure is similar to that of the other pollsters. Our pollster starts by asking “Press 1 if you are a registered voter, Press 2 if you are not”. Those who are registered are then asked: “What party, if any, are you affiliated with: Republican, Democrat, Other, or None?”. As for candidates we ask: “If the race were held tomorrow, who would you vote for: the Republican (Insert Name) or the Democrat (Insert Name)?”. They also ask what ideology the voter aligns with: Liberal, Conservative, Moderate. We don’t release the crosstabs simply because we don’t have access to them; that’s part of our deal with our polling firm, which we’ll talk more about shortly. http://theconservativejournal.wordpress.com/ more from the website: Who conducts your polling: This question has to be the most complicated. I have a friend who runs a marketing firm and agreed to do our polls on the grounds that it could be done quietly. Not for nefarious reasons, though, as some have suggested. He has to think of this from a business perspective and he doesn’t want clients to get the wrong idea because he is polling for a conservative site, in addition to the fact that elections are hard to predict and he doesn’t want inaccuracies to make clients wary of his services. He does marketing research, which is much more stable than political polling. It’s his first foray in this and we’ve made that clear from day 1. As I’ve said numerous times, we post the highlights we’re given in follow-up analysis. For those who don’t feel the need to cry foul, or those who need just a little bit more convincing, allow me to toot our own horn for a minute to win you over. Our Ohio Governor’s race poll that was taken on 10/16 showed a 3-point race between Republican John Kasich and Democrat Ted Strickland. At the time, the 3 most recent previous polls showed Kasich up a much larger 10, 8, and 6 points. We saw our polls being dismissed right and left because they deviated strongly from the “norm”. The following set of polls showed a result shockingly similar to ours, all with movement toward to Strickland. When we released our poll for Barney Frank’s House race against Republican Sean Bielat, we had zero points for comparison. There had been, at the time, no independent polling of this race. Our poll showed an 11-point lead in Frank’s favor. Reaction to this poll was similar to the poll above, in that most said our “conservative bias” prevented an accurate study. Three days later, an independent pollster released a result that was shockingly similar; Frank was up 12 over Bielat. And finally, our Christine O’Donnell polls were the first to point to a surge in her favor following her debate against Democrat Chris Coons. While our poll still gave Coons a strong lead, it showed O’Donnell down only 10, much less than the 19-20 point deficit previous polls had reported. Following our poll, numerous other polls reported the gap closing to 11 and 12 point margins. Again, the chances of our “made-up” polls showing trends in 3 cases is an eerie coincidence, especially considering the relatively low number of polls we’ve released. Also, our polls have been featured on Fox News throughout October. Say what you want about Fox News stance on the issues, but it’s questionable to say that they’d post a poll that was, as some have called us, “bogus”.

[DelaWhere]

Yeah, I know, but it wouldn’t have been as punny...

[stylin_geek]

That’s another good line of reasoning.

The race has to be closer than polls are showing.

I can’t think of another plausible explanation for President Obama to campaign in DE.

[r9etb]

He’s a troll. Christine is a star.

OK, Coons is a troll. And Ms. O'Donnell is a very nice girl who is in over her head.

[mrsmith]

Thanks, I’d assumed they weren’t real polls myself.
From the methodology stated they are better than I’d thought.

[truthfreedom]

Yeah, definitely.

A paragraph of excuses is a good reason to believe that a completely unknown blog will all of a sudden be able to do more polls than PPP or Rasmussen.

TCJ RESEARCH POLLS ARE COMPLETELY MADE UP.

[truthfreedom]

Christine is a superstar.

And that’s why she’s going to win.

And of course, Republicans = motivated, Democrats = not motivated.

[truthfreedom]

TCJ IS COMPLETELY FICTIONAL STUFF.

TCJ’S FICTIONAL POLLS MIGHT MAKE YOU HAPPY, BUT THEY’RE STILL FICTIONAL.

And paragraphs are your friends.