Skip to comments.Democrats at DEFCON 1: Is Christine O’Donnell now leading in internals?
Posted on 10/26/2010 3:25:39 PM PDT by truthfreedom
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I think that’s probably true. I assume that they’re trying to make the most realistic guesses about turnout possible. If they think that Democrats aren’t sticking with their candidate, they know what that’ll mean in Delaware. So they’re doing the turnout math a little differently than the pollsters, and they probably have turnout insights we don’t have.
I will say that polls might not pick up on the fact that Conservative Independents will be voting much much more than Moderate Independents and Liberal Independents.
Conservative Independents are Conservatives who for whatever reason (Republicans too liberal, don’t care much for Mike Castle) didn’t join the Republican Party. Those are the ones who really should be fired up to vote. You don’t see too many Moderate or Liberal Democrats with the same distaste for the Democrat or Republican party as the Conservative indies have for the Republican. You might find a bigger enthusiasm gap between the excited Conservative indies and the apathetic Liberal indies than between the Republicans and the Democrats. And that’s +15 in early voting. +18 equalizes the parties. And the Democrats are seeing a ton of Democrats voting Republican? I’m not counting on that one too much, but I can imagine that it might be there. And Christine definitely could be appealing to any number of Democrat voting blocks. Not all Democrats hate religion. There are a few old Catholic Dems in New Castle county who remember what it was like pre Everson, and they aren’t all wonderfully happy about the dereligionizing of America.
>>>how very 3rd grade of you<<<
Well my roommate in college was a pomologist...
Think I didn’t have fun with that...
Referred to him as my fruity roomie...
That doesn’t sit well with a navy vet...
Of course now that we are both septuagenarians, we laugh about things like that.
I guess my eyesight isn't so good. I was thinking that there might be some problems if your roommate was a pornologist.
so a real poll is what? pone done by a liberal like the PPP or gallup polls? Or maybe a real poll is one like say from CBS or NBC/WSJ?
the TEA Party express poll before the primary was the ONLY one that got it right. I’ll take the TPE poll over a “real liberal” poll anyday. The fact that the TCJ poll confirms the TPE poll shows that both polls can be treated as “real” polls.
Futhermore the omission of “real” polls on this race is also a data point. If COd was down double digits the LSM would be putting poll after poll out. Their polls are telling them the race is getting close and hence the absence of any “real” polls.
the question you should be asking yourself is where are the national polls on this race. No gallup, Rass, or even PPP poll has been released on this race in the last 10 days or so. The omission is the answer to where COD is atm in the race. If COD was double digits behind the polls would be headlined in ever newspaper in the country. the fact that no left leaning pollster has released numbers on this race recently is all the answer you need. the rac eis within the MOE atm IMO and the TPE and TCJ polls confirm this.
Brown took 3 weeks because McConnell wanted him to take three weeks so that the debt ceiling could be voted on without any GOP votes. Brown got a big office for his playing nice with the leadership on that one. Brown was seated within a day or so after that vote.
agreed. A Castle defeat was worth it.
And COD wins by 5pts on NOV2
Rasmussen is good.
Listen, everybody here really should know what a real poll looks like.
There are pdf’s with crosstabs and all the rest. Some can be 20 pages long. They’re full of useful information.
In the primary, the tpe polls were good. This most recent one was iffy at best. We didn’t see any numbers at all except 6 points.
I need a lot more detail. The primary polling at least has a name of a polling firm (NSON) attached.
There has to be more there to be taken seriously.
2 people making up the same stuff do not confirm either of the polls.
Hey, if Christine is finding the TCJ “poll” as useful to keep the troops motivated, great. But there’s no evidence that TCJ ever actually took a poll.
I think the TPE did do polling in Sept. I think that they did do polling recently, and someone here did get a call yesterday or today from Utah, where NSON is located. But they did a pretty bad job of putting out a nice friendly reliable appearing webpage with a poll with any numbers on it. But TPE is a reliable brand name with a solid track record.
And I do think that we’re at 6. I personally do not just believe whatever anyone tells me even if it’s something that I already believe. I come up with a theory, and then I test that theory with good data. And I just don’t think that TCJ is good data, although I do agree with the 6.
As far as facts go the fact that Obama and BIden went to DE shows the race is close, the fact that Coons agreed to debate COD several times means the race is close (when races are not close those leading in the polls do not debate often if at all) add into this mix the TCJ poll and the TPE poll both confirming the facts on the ground. finally the absence of any “left leaning” poll results.
this race is a headliner grabber. All pollsters understand that and if the polls where showing a race where Coons was winning big it would be news. Since they have been no polls released for 10 days or so tells anyone that is paying attention the results are not what the LSM wants. Thus omission. then there is the fact that coons went negative on COD this week. Not something you do if you are leading in the polls. It is something you do to stop a candidate's surge.
Add it all up and the race is close. I understand you want cross tabs and likely voter numbers but no poll so far this year has been very good because the pollsters can not get the turnout models correct. TPE has a good track record.
One final fact. Palin is coming in on OCt 31. She would not do that if the polls showed COD down by double digits. A close race is enough for Palin to take risks. She will not take a risk like this on a race with COD down by double digits. It just isn't done in politics.
TCJ IS NOT ACTUALLY DOING POLLS. THEY ARE JUST MAKING THINGS UP.
If they actually called 1000 people, costing many many dollars, don’t you think they’d type up all the many results in a neat looking pdf?
Nope. They would provide exactly what you’d see if you were just making it up. Right.
TCJ IS LYING. THEY’RE SAYING THEY’RE DOING POLLS BUT AREN’T DOING POLLS. THEY’RE JUST MAKING UP NUMBERS THAT SOUND GOOD.
If you remove TCJ from your analysis, it sounds ok.
I think we’re about 6, but I won’t allow a fake poll to cloud my judgment. And I don’t want anyone else trying to cloud my judgment either.
“And you have to add in the fact that 2 different people were making up the same thing. The 2 fake polls verified themselves”
I think Christine wins and I’ve thought that Christine was going to win since May. But not based on fake polls.
She’s a superstar, and Coons is a troll, and Christine wins even in the state with the 2nd fewest number of Conservatives.
For grins, I suggest you research the word a little more. You will find that it may not mean what most here automatically assume it to mean at first glance. There’s a clever, obscure and slippery ambiguity to it which renders it perfectly suited to certain types of online sophistry.
Yeah, I know, but it wouldn’t have been as punny...
That’s another good line of reasoning.
The race has to be closer than polls are showing.
I can’t think of another plausible explanation for President Obama to campaign in DE.
OK, Coons is a troll. And Ms. O'Donnell is a very nice girl who is in over her head.
Thanks, I’d assumed they weren’t real polls myself.
From the methodology stated they are better than I’d thought.
A paragraph of excuses is a good reason to believe that a completely unknown blog will all of a sudden be able to do more polls than PPP or Rasmussen.
TCJ RESEARCH POLLS ARE COMPLETELY MADE UP.
Christine is a superstar.
And that’s why she’s going to win.
And of course, Republicans = motivated, Democrats = not motivated.
TCJ IS COMPLETELY FICTIONAL STUFF.
TCJ’S FICTIONAL POLLS MIGHT MAKE YOU HAPPY, BUT THEY’RE STILL FICTIONAL.
And paragraphs are your friends.
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