Skip to comments.Democrats at DEFCON 1: Is Christine O’Donnell now leading in internals?
Posted on 10/26/2010 3:25:39 PM PDT by truthfreedom
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I’d feel better if this came from a page other than Hillbuzz. It gives DEBKA a run for its money when it comes to making stuff up to get hits.
Best TV moment of my life was seeing Judy Woodruff cry when Al Gore finally had to concede to GWB after SCOTUS ruled.
We might be seeing the Bradley Effect here: with O’Donnell being so completely demonized by the MSM, poll respondents are lying to pollsters about their intent to vote for her.
The question being ... why are they piling on O'Donnell and not, say, Rossi or Fiorina?
That's obvious, even if her ardent supporters don't want to see it: it's because O'Donnell is an easy mark and the others are not. She doesn't come across like a Senator -- she's soft; and she seems shallow, hesitant, and very, very young.
Is that fair? No ... but it's real life in the media-dominated political world.
sweet really sweet
If ODonnell wins, I am SO tuning in to Chris Matthews show on election night for the endless weeping and gnashing of teeth.
In 2002 Carville put a bucket on his head whent the GOP gained seats in the midterms
In 2004 Carville slapped an egg on his face when Bush defeated Kerry
wonder what he’ll do if O’Donnell pulls this out??? I’m hoping Seppuku
Bob Hope agrees:
If Coons wins, he won't be up for reelection until 2016. Senators serve six-year terms.
The local talk show guy was going on today about the lack of polls in this race. Come on, all week we’ve been hearing about polls from West Va,Ca, Ill, Rand Paul....even a poll just tonight on Fox for a supreme court judge running somewhere.
I got a theory about why this is so which I’ll share in a minute.
First, let me state that Palin is definitely due to come to Delaware this Sunday. COD just got the endorsement of former Gov. Dupont which is a big deal.
Next, you really need to get to Delaware more. Except I don’t know what to tell you to visit except maybe me.
Another tidbit which means i don’t know what, let me remind y’all that Delaware currently has another big, big race going on...that of Delaware’s ONLY Rep in America’s House, to replace Mike Castle’s old job. So this week Coons and the Democrat running for Castle’s old seat, former loot-gov John Carney, have BOTH refused to participate in any more debates. In fact, Carney didn’t show up for a scheduled debate with his pub opponent, Urquhart. Urquhart is greatly outpublicized by COD but he’s okay with it. I love the guy and hey, there’s no polls on this race either, now that I think of it.
Don’t know what to make of all these refusal to come out in public with the Dems Coons/Carney AND, as an aside, there’s another guy, Pete Schwartzkopf...you might remember his Dad, General in Desert Storm. Well Pete is a Dem, the ONLY Dem in Sussex county and we can’t stand the man. He’s running and let me tell you the Sussex pubs are out beating the hell out of Pete cause he’s a tax and spend Dem of the highest order. and this ain’t Wilmington here in Sussex county Delaware.
Anyway, Schwartzkopf TOO didn’t show up for a scheduled debate recently! Remember, these are not possible or suggested debates, they are debates all scheduled with audiences showing up and boom, the Dems...they ain’t showing up! Now Coons just refusing to go public this week.
What this means I don’t know but throwing it out there.
Now as for polling for either COD and poor ole forgotten Urquhart, just the nicest man...here are the demographics in Delaware. Up north, in the Wilmington area, which is 2.5 hours from my house in this little state just to give you an idea...Wilmington also being kind of an extended suburb of Philadelphia....fully 3/4 of the population leaves in that area. Most of them are Democrat, heavily union, a lot of the welfare class, some blue collar. Few pubs or even Independents.
In Kent and Sussex county, both of these counties have 1/4 of the population, VERY conservative, more conservative than most of your red states....very conservative. I love Sussex county, it’s a bit of heaven on earth.
Now that 3/4 of the population up around Wilmington, they might vote Democrat but they don’t wake up election morn all full of zest and smiles ready to go to the polls and cast their vote.
In the past Delaware has had reliable Mike Castle of RINO fame. So the beleaguered Kent and Sussex countians went and voted for Castle just so whatever nut case the Dems might have come up with doesn’t win. It was no mind if the 3/4 up north bothered to vote because the Dems were quite happy with Castle and they figured let the more reliable and probably not hung-over voters of Kent and Sussex vote him in.
THIS year they’ve got to get out those Philly surround voters and I do think they’ve taken polls and I suspect the polls are over the place.
I think the welfare Wilmington voters probably tell the pollsters that hell yeah they’ll vote for Coons, sho nuff. So right there you’ve got 75% of the sample...well maybe 60% to get logical...all saying they’ll vote for Coons, hell yeah.
Then they poll the Kent/Sussex voters and maybe right there you get 95% saying they’re going for COD. Do the math on it and I’m thinking you got maybe Coons up by 20-25 points.
BUT...WHAT’S WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE!
If you’re a Freeper you probably figgered it out. The Coons voters are quite likely to sleep in come election day so what the pollsters are hearing ain’t likely close to the outcome.
Bearing in mind, thanks for indulging me for my length, that I’m sure that a check of voting outcomes in the past likely revealed the turnout of voters to be something like 35% of the welfare folks with the rest being the Indies/pubs from downstate.
I am, understand here, pulling numbers outta the air but I’m working on my finely hones political hunch from what I learned in Delaware.
So much, so very, very much, depends on who comes out to vote this upcoming Tuesday. I know the turnout will affect races across the fruited plains but seriously, it is a drop dead huge point here in Delaware.
I’ll end with the thought that more than anything that this is why Obamer came to Delaware last week. I’m thinking they’ve got the unions working on picking up the wilmington voters, supply them with a pack of cigs, bus them to the polls...that kind of thing.
In short, but why should I be short now?...I think the COD/Coons race will be a squeaker/nail-biter.
So you supply a link to a poll of registered voter types in Delaware....NOT A THING ABOUT WHO YOU GONNA VOTE FOR...and suggest this is a poll of the candidates?
Your dislike of COD is evident on the threads you post.
My analysis of the Delaware demographs allegedly working against COD upthread is way better than yours.
But then, I live here.
No. This election is to fill out the remainder of Biden's unexpired term, to which he was elected (over O'Donnell, in a landslide) in 2008.
An appointee filled the seat until the next general election, this year ... leaving 4 more years in the term.
So this seat is next up for election in 2014.
If COD is elected - the entire left wing will commit mass suicide.
>>>I will happily concede (along with every political strategist in the game) to have having been completely and utterly wrong.<<<
Yeah, yeah - heard that before the primary too...
Rove, Castle, etc. really did, didn’t they.....
COD got two points less iin the 2008 election than John McCain got over Obamer. Which was something like 37%....but it wasn’t a “landslide” against COD, since the pub nominee for prez came in about the same.
But don’t let me stop your demented mission against Christine O’Donnell with the facts or anything.
I sure am rooting for her and would kill to see a decent poll within the last week. It is quite odd how nobody seems to want to poll the people of Delaware, but until they do we are really just hoping for the best in the face of a near double digit deficit with one week to go. But, Scott Brown happens! Or something like that.
Well, I certainly hope it makes more sense than your comment to me.
But hey -- I'm just doing math on the numbers available, and I provided links to the ones I used. I even said the numbers were somewhat old, but that they showed the difficulties O'Donnell has to overcome among independents.
That's just math applied to reality. If you're going to argue about my post, why not tell me where my math is wrong, rather than piling on your hopes and dreams about Democrats sleeping in and such?
Your dislike of COD is evident on the threads you post.
It's not a matter of "dislike," but rather that I think she's an awful candidate. That's a big reason why I don't think she'll be able to turn around her poor numbers among independents -- among whom she needs to win a huge majority in order to win the election.
It is true that Ds outnumber Rs 47-29
Christine doesn’t have to win huge with indys.
She just needs to have a turnout advantage.
Early voting is showing a +15 average turnout advantage.
If that +15 takes place in Delaware - and that’s the average -
that makes it 40-37 D’s over R’s. If Christine wins indies 60-40 - very possible, because conservative indies are more likely to vote than moderate or liberal indies, she wins.
It really isn’t too tricky. Just take a look for the word “tsunami” in posts from today.
But don’t get me wrong. If Democrats in Delaware are excited about voting to continue Obama’s policies, Christine won’t win.
All the evidence nationally is for a wave election, and if it is, Christine wins, and fairly handily.
You do know that in Kentucky, for example, it’s 56 Dem and 37 Rep. Most of the country has more Dems than Republicans.
Rand Paul, the Republican, is up by 13.
You hate her.
No sin. But you post a link to some kind of analysis of types of voters in Delaware and state that the polls say COD will get these votes ...
You think she’s an awful candidate?
And you sure go to great lengths to point every little “bad” thing out.
Well, I’d rather have a BS ancedote that sounds reasonable than a BS “poll” that doesn’t. I don’t know if this is BS or not. I do remember back in 2008 that many of the projections from the Hillary camp didn’t really pan out all that well.
But this article “sounds good to me”
Check out the R9... poster. Gets on every thread about COD putting her down.
Thinks she’s an “awful” candidate and doesn’t hesitate to point out every flaw and post some misleading facts.
Why would someone on a “conservative” forum do this?
What I’d say about polls right now is that we haven’t had a real poll in quite some time.
The last one was 10/14 - it was Rasmussen, and it had Christine at -11. Rasmussen charges for crosstabs and they have some weird system of charging every month so I didn’t want to spend $20 and forget to cancel, just to look at one set of crosstabs.
I suspect that Rasmussen did talk to more Rs than the others, but did they talk to the whole 37% of Rs?
She has come across very reasonable in the debates, not at all a crazy idiot, and I expect that she’ll win, provided we have a similar turnout advantage that we’re seeing in other states.
It’s possible there was a Bradley effect in those old polls with the wide margins.
I'll loan him my tanto!
She’s very pretty. She would be a very young very pretty very prolife female.
That scares the Democrats.
Do you remember that she was the star of the Values Voter convention back in September?
She’s a star. Rossi and Fiorina are not stars.
People know who she is. And a lot more of them than you think do like her.
Based on her performances in the debates, she should have rock solid conservative support. They will be voting for her. Earlier polls pre debate, had less than full conservative support. Conservatives will be voting, and they will be voting for Christine. “Where in the first amendment?” was huge for conservatives.
Nope, not in this case. This is a short term, the seat that Biden won. 2014.
>>>She’s not going to get the dismal Democrat turnout she needs. <<<
Gee, the large number of Dems that are going door-to-door, calling and putting out mailers for Christine must not have gotten your message...
Unlike Fishtalk who is about 45 minutes South of me, I am near the center of the State... Democrats around here have practically zip as far as interest in Coons...
Talked to a friend the other day who delivers to many businesses in New Castle County - according to him, as he talks to the mostly union people he delivers to, when he asks “Well, I suppose you are going to be supporting Coons...” According to him, not one has said they were - overwhelmingly (according to him) they say “Hell no - I won’t vote for that SOB”.
The Wilmington Daily Democrat even ran an article that the unions were having trouble getting GOTV workers - there is ‘no fire in the belly.’
So, make of it what you will. I can sure see the light though...
She can do it!
You are feeling the buzz in Sussex. Are you saying that there’s a huge Christine buzz in Sussex based on what you’re experiencing?
Would, statewide, 60% Republican turnout and 37% Democrat turnout be a reasonable possibility? Higher you think, lower you think? Any thoughts there?
>>>I didnt think Delaware had early voting..<<<
You are right - we don’t...
The “hopes and dreams” happen to be supported all across the country.
The average is +15 early voting. In Delaware, +18 gets the Republican vote and the Democrat vote equal.
Yeah, I thought this was a Conservative site.
You’re thinking the same way as I am.
At this point. I don't want to see RAS or anybody else polling here. The situation is perfect for Christine right now. Her supporters are amped up and believe she is gaining on Coons the way she did against Castle. The Dems here think it's in the bank for them. If this situation prevails, she will turn out an army & Coons will not & she has got a GOOD chance of winning. A big poll showing her very close or very far behind will upset this dynamic.
I saw the article about the unions and the GOTV.
Excellent anecdotal evidence from you in the Kent / Dover area.
If we hold on to as many Republicans as Coons holds on to Democrats, as a percentage, we have the turnout advantage seen in the early voting, and win independents by a bit (due probably to a turnout advantage among Conservative Independents), we win.
I was in Dewey Beach a couple weeks ago, and I didn’t really get much of a feel for how voters were. Didn’t really leave the beach area / Rt 1 / the shopping centers area at all.
Hmmmm, good questions.
First, Sussex county created Christine O’Donnell. back in 2005 we were meeting in pizza parlors to hear her speak such was our disgust with the Delaware GOP.
She’ll carry Sussex AND Kent, but that was never an issue.
Your question about a possible 60% versus 37% turnout is more germane to this AND the Urquhart race.
Yes, I think your percentages are very possible and in fact, I’m willing to bet, given the Castle thing for so many years, that this is probably normal turnout rates in Delaware.
THIS year though, I dunno. Delaware’s got a large union population. I suspect there’s big moves afoot to get out that lackluster Wilmington vote,which did turn out quite handily for Obamer in 2008., btw.
So the question is, can the Acorn/union groups get the Dems to the polls? Recalling that these folks are not nearly as enamored over that ugly Marxist midget Coons as they were for Obamer...and rightfully so. I’D take Obamer over Coons is how bad it is.
I still say this race will be close, much closer than anyone suspects.
Your analysis I believe is right on the money about the potential disruptive effect of a legitimate poll.
I do WANT a poll though. But more than that I want what’s best for Christine.
Although I think the TCJ polls aren’t real, I think the results are the closest. And I understand that in some ways these TCJ polls are good because it gives Christines emails some motivating numbers.
What if TPTB are worried that polls might show Christine closing the gap? That might provide her with momentum; and TPTB wouldn’t like that...no, not one bit.
60% Republican turnout / 37% Democrat turnout means that the same number of Republicans and Democrats are voting.
Right. But the thinking is that the momentum is building without polls, and is growing at just the right speed. see outofstyle on this one.
I agree with you - hope the pollsters stay away...
But, they are working on it... Got a call today without anyone on the other end - checked out the number and it is a robo-polling outfit from Utah.
They have an agenda to push during lame duck. Coons would be on board ,O’Donnell will help stop it.
Outofstyle...good post...makes perfect sense.
Always the eternal optimist.
I'd pay to watch.
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
Well, I think she’s charming, refreshing and shares my viewpoints.
But what do I know?
That is probably the Tea Party Express.
They use NSON Research. NSON Research is based out of Salt Lake City.
That’s great news because it causes me to think that what we heard from TPE on Sunday is accurate. They did a pretty bad job of giving details of that poll released Sunday. But they did, and NSON did, a good job in September.
Not at all.
I do, however, find it interesting that so many supposedly rational, supposedly conservative, people are ready to shout "hate" at the first hint of a contrary opinion. That used to be a hallmark of the emotional left -- still is, for that matter.
But you post a link to some kind of analysis of types of voters in Delaware and state that the polls say COD will get these votes ...
Oh, for crying out loud. It's a link to the internals of a particular poll, given as a reference to support what I was talking about. If you can't even work up the objectivity to recognize the honest use of references....
You think shes an awful candidate?
I do. Especially for Delaware.
She should say “I’m COD - Cash on Delivery” No more spending on account!
I’m not sure what TPTB is.
You could be right.
I suspect that the polls show several scenarios based on voter turnout. I don’t for one minute think that the campaigns at least don’t have polls.
I think the Delaware polls are showing anywhere from a win for Coons by twenty points to a win for COD by six.
All depending on turnout.
Of course all results depend on turnout you could argue. I still say that here in Delaware there’s a certain total uncertainty to the turnout because due to the Castle RINO thing there was never a concern with getting the big northern vote out.
But hey, it’s just speculation on my part, nothing more.
Still, a fact that can’t be denied, there are no polls be quoted for Delaware since a Rasmussen one some couple weeks ago.
I see someone on this thread got some help. Never fight your own battles when you can gang up...that’s the ticket.
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