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To: truthfreedom
Polls aside, I think she wins.

I don't, if only because the demographics are badly against her.

Democrats outnumber Republicans in Delaware by 47-29%.

O'Donnell needs to make up that margin by winning hugely among independents, maybe coupled with utterly dismal turnout by Democrats and Coons-leaning independents.

Unfortunately for her, polls have been showing her trailing among independents by about the same as she's trailing in the overall results.

Some polls have her doing poorly even among Republicans (e.g., this one has her only getting 64% of Republicans, whereas Coons gets 19% Republican and 81% Democrat support....)

She’s had the opportunity to come across as not a crazy idiot in the debates, and she did even way way better than that. She even beat Coons (Yale Law) at Constitutional Law.

Arguable... but mainly irrelevant, given her demographic disadvantages. She's not going to get the dismal Democrat turnout she needs.

50 posted on 10/26/2010 4:21:38 PM PDT by r9etb
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To: r9etb

So you supply a link to a poll of registered voter types in Delaware....NOT A THING ABOUT WHO YOU GONNA VOTE FOR...and suggest this is a poll of the candidates?

Your dislike of COD is evident on the threads you post.

My analysis of the Delaware demographs allegedly working against COD upthread is way better than yours.

But then, I live here.


61 posted on 10/26/2010 4:43:34 PM PDT by Fishtalk
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To: r9etb

It is true that Ds outnumber Rs 47-29

Christine doesn’t have to win huge with indys.

She just needs to have a turnout advantage.

Early voting is showing a +15 average turnout advantage.

If that +15 takes place in Delaware - and that’s the average -
that makes it 40-37 D’s over R’s. If Christine wins indies 60-40 - very possible, because conservative indies are more likely to vote than moderate or liberal indies, she wins.

It really isn’t too tricky. Just take a look for the word “tsunami” in posts from today.

But don’t get me wrong. If Democrats in Delaware are excited about voting to continue Obama’s policies, Christine won’t win.

All the evidence nationally is for a wave election, and if it is, Christine wins, and fairly handily.

You do know that in Kentucky, for example, it’s 56 Dem and 37 Rep. Most of the country has more Dems than Republicans.
Rand Paul, the Republican, is up by 13.


68 posted on 10/26/2010 4:55:33 PM PDT by truthfreedom
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To: r9etb

>>>She’s not going to get the dismal Democrat turnout she needs. <<<

Gee, the large number of Dems that are going door-to-door, calling and putting out mailers for Christine must not have gotten your message...

Unlike Fishtalk who is about 45 minutes South of me, I am near the center of the State... Democrats around here have practically zip as far as interest in Coons...

Talked to a friend the other day who delivers to many businesses in New Castle County - according to him, as he talks to the mostly union people he delivers to, when he asks “Well, I suppose you are going to be supporting Coons...” According to him, not one has said they were - overwhelmingly (according to him) they say “Hell no - I won’t vote for that SOB”.

The Wilmington Daily Democrat even ran an article that the unions were having trouble getting GOTV workers - there is ‘no fire in the belly.’

So, make of it what you will. I can sure see the light though...


76 posted on 10/26/2010 5:20:02 PM PDT by DelaWhere (Better to be prepared one year early than one day late!)
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To: r9etb
Unfortunately for her, polls have been showing her trailing among independents by about the same as she's trailing in the overall results.

The last poll on your list is October 14.

116 posted on 10/26/2010 7:57:41 PM PDT by FreeReign
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