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South Korea has "Had Enough", Currently Planning Military Attack on the North
Reaganite Republican ^ | December 13, 2010 | Reaganite Republican

Posted on 12/13/2010 7:43:43 AM PST by Reaganite Republican

"...a South Korean government who does not react 
would not be able to survive..."


The United States and South Korean militaries have long had a plan (with multiple revisions over the years) for fighting and winning an all-out war with the Norks: OPLAN 5027. Regrettably, a copy of this was snaked by North Korean hackers last year. Following that debacle, a new strategy is of course in the works.

But these days -despite never-ending belligerence emanating from the DPRK- fear of war on that scale has diminished on the SK/US side: the penniless Stalinist hell of North Korea is on the cusp of a possible leadership crisis, while also painfully aware that they simply cannot win a full-scale continuation of the Korean War. Any serious attack on the South would promptly lead to the demise of the so-called 'hermit kingdom', according to most observers... and the nefarious Kim regime knows it. 

So after taking some serious political heat in the wake of the first attack on a South Korean civilian area since 1953 -Yeonpyeong Island- the conservative administration of Lee Myung-bak in Seoul has lost interest in absorbing unprovoked aggression from Pyongyang... they're drawing a line in the sand as a new hawkish defense chief takes office.

CNS News:
President Lee Myung-bak's government is suffering intense criticism that its response to North Korea's Nov. 23 barrage on a South Korean island was weak, and over the stunning revelation that the South's spy chief dismissed information in August indicating the North might attack the front-line island of Yeonpyeong. 

Lee's nominee, Kim Kwan-jin, told a parliamentary confirmation hearing that further North Korean aggression will result in airstrikes. He said South Korea will use all its combat capabilities to retaliate. 

"In case the enemy attacks our territory and people again, we will thoroughly retaliate to ensure that the enemy cannot provoke again,"...


Yesterday former US Naval intelligence officer Dennis Blair confirmed that Seoul indeed sees no potential benefit in mantaining a failed strategy of appeasement with North Korea... and is preparing to deliver a long-overdue push-back.

Breitbart:
The former chief of US intelligence has warned that South Korea has lost its patience with provocations by North Korea and "will be taking military action." 

Retired admiral Dennis Blair, who was director of national intelligence until May, said he did not think that hostilities would escalate into a larger war with artillery attacks on Seoul because North Korea knows it would lose. 

"So I don't think a war is going to start but I think there is going to be a military confrontation at lower levels rather than simply accepting these, this North Korean aggression, and going and negotiating," he said on CNN's State of the Union. 

Blair said the North had gone beyond its usual pattern of brinkmanship with an artillery barrage on a South Korean island that killed four people November 23, and the sinking in May of a South Korean warship, which killed 46 sailors. 

"So South Korea is beginning to lose patience with the North, which there was a great deal of patience," said Blair, who just returned from South Korea. Asked what that meant, the retired admiral said, "It means they will be taking military action against North Korea." 

His comments came as South Korea was preparing to go ahead with live fire drills off its coasts, but not near the contested maritime border with the North in the Yellow Sea.

And where are Kim Jong-il's traditional supporters -the Chinese- on all this? Shooting themself in the foot, basically-

While WikiLeaks-exposed cables last month indicated Beijing was also frustrated with the Kim regime's unpredictable brinkmanship -and would possibly acquiesce to a Korean unification under SK control- all we've seen in public is a diplomatically-clumsy Chinese leadership acting like nothing has changed at all... an ill-advised and wholly-irresponsible approach that is starting to inflict some serious damage on China's aspirations as a world power...


Robert Haddick writing in Foreign Policy:
Beijing's ham-fisted approach to the North Korean issue is causing other countries in East Asia to rally around the United States in alarm over Chinese intentions, a result exactly contrary to China's long term policy goals in the region. 

With no change in its policy toward North Korea, China should prepare for more diplomatic isolation and a stepped-up security response by the United States and its neighbors. 

On Dec. 6, the Washington Post's John Pomfret described Beijing's clumsy approach to South Korea in the wake of the North's hour-long artillery bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island. Four days after the attack, China sent State Councilor Dai Bingguo to Seoul, without an invitation or advanced notice. Upon landing, Dai demanded that South Korean President Lee Myung-bak abandon his schedule for the rest of the day in order to meet with him, which Lee refused to do. 

When the two met the following day, Dai told Lee to "calm down" and then delivered a history lecture on China-South Korean relations. Dai's diplomatic bungling was startling. 

After his departure, Lee and his new defense minister adopted a policy of military retaliation against the North. Lee then sent his foreign minister to a policy coordination meeting with his U.S. and Japanese counterparts. The United States proceeded with large military training exercises with South Korea and Japan. Soon after that, the U.S. and South Korean governments unveiled a completed free-trade agreement. 

China's actions regarding North Korea have done wonders to bring together the United States and its Asian allies...

And although plenty predictable, the official North Korean news agency's somewhat less-than-nuanced take is always good for a few chuckles:

The war confab of the U.S. imperialists and the south Korean warmongers is, in fact, little short of a declaration of an all-out war aimed at the escalated skirmish, declared a spokesman for the National Peace Committee of Korea in a statement released on Saturday. 

He went on to say: The U.S. imperialists and the puppet warmongers held a meeting of the chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of south Korea and the U.S. in Seoul on December 8 at which they discussed a very dangerous war scenario calling on the puppet forces and the U.S. imperialist aggressor forces to mount a military attack on the DPRK under the pretext of "deterring provocation" of someone. 

The U.S. imperialists openly approved the puppet forces′ plan to attack the DPRK by mobilizing all fighters and warships, etc. not bound to the existing "rules and regulations for battles," touting "their right to self-defence." 

They, at the same time, declared they would consider the proposal for supporting the puppet forces with "information about north Korea" and with "F-22 Raptors" advertised by them as the "most sophisticated fighters in the world" in case of a war between the north and the south of Korea.

Looks like one pugnacious pygmy dictator with a funky-looking Elvis 'do may be soon be getting an abject lesson in just how sophisticated the F-22 Raptor actually is: they'll never see it coming until things just start blowing-up.

Chosunilbo   Breitbart   The Guardian  Hannity

More at Reaganite Republican


TOPICS: Government; History; Military/Veterans; Politics
KEYWORDS: airstrikes; china; korea; war

1 posted on 12/13/2010 7:43:48 AM PST by Reaganite Republican
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To: Reaganite Republican

Get some!


2 posted on 12/13/2010 7:44:24 AM PST by dfwgator (Welcome to the Gator Nation Will Muschamp)
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To: Reaganite Republican

Interesting to say the least


3 posted on 12/13/2010 7:52:32 AM PST by therightliveswithus
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To: Reaganite Republican

If at all possible, they’d be well advised to wait until we have different leadership here in the U.S.


4 posted on 12/13/2010 7:52:39 AM PST by ScottinVA (The West needs to act NOW to aggressively treat its metastasizing islaminoma!)
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To: therightliveswithus

IMO credible due to the moderate scale of the plan, just tactical to take out artillery sights and make a statement

The Norks won’t go all out... they’re not as crazy as a lot of people think, that’s all bluster


5 posted on 12/13/2010 7:58:37 AM PST by Reaganite Republican
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To: AmericanInTokyo; TigerLikesRooster

Thoughts?


6 posted on 12/13/2010 7:59:08 AM PST by Free Vulcan (The battle isn't over. Hold their feet to the fire.)
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To: Free Vulcan

The first thing to be done is to wipe out the missile and howitzer brigades just north of the DMZ.


7 posted on 12/13/2010 8:14:35 AM PST by Eric in the Ozarks (Impeachment !)
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To: Reaganite Republican

You know, it seems to me that a handful of Tomahawks could sort this right out.


8 posted on 12/13/2010 8:19:17 AM PST by Oberon (Big Brutha Be Watchin'.)
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To: Reaganite Republican

I hope you’re right, but I’m not so sure.


9 posted on 12/13/2010 8:31:12 AM PST by paladin1_dcs
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To: Oberon

“You know, it seems to me that a handful of Tomahawks could sort this right out.”

I disagree right now North Korea is nearing a fork in the road. Those people are bat $#it crazy from cradle to grave and that has served the NK despots rather well to date but keeping a group of fanatics in line will not be easy if they start to lose an all out war.

If however you martyr Crazy Uncle Kim (or his successor) without walking over the whole country all you do is extend the situation another 100 years no matter how bad things get.

Either roll over NK (it would make the Pacific Campaign of WW2 seem tame) or retaliate to NK aggression with a 1.5* sever strike to the site of the aggression.

Which ever it is we need to follow SK’s lead as it’s their nation on the line and they are a decent group to have on your side...


10 posted on 12/13/2010 8:38:19 AM PST by N3WBI3 (Ah, arrogance and stupidity all in the same package. How efficient of you. -- Londo Mollari)
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To: Eric in the Ozarks

Correct imho, the artillery within range of Seoul -much of which is on rails that rapidly run the gun back into a cave immediately after firing- is THE primary threat of the North Korean Army

The AF and Navy are nothing compared to our side, they’re all a land army. They have a lot of AA and set artillery pieces... like 40-50K I believe. The plan would be to level Seoul the first day and try and force a negotiation


11 posted on 12/13/2010 8:53:05 AM PST by Reaganite Republican
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To: N3WBI3

It sounds like that’s what we are doing, Lee Myung-bak decided to go with a more offensive strategy and offer an more effective deterrent, and the US promised him F-22s already


12 posted on 12/13/2010 8:55:08 AM PST by Reaganite Republican
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To: Reaganite Republican
Implausible bordering on ridiculous. North Korean military power is based on two things: 1) special forces, and 2) massive concentrations of long range artillery.

NK's special forces, the largest such force in the world, are designed for fighting in the rear areas of the Republic of Korea (ROK) disrupting services, resupply, reinforcement, etc. They are a purely offensive force.

That leaves artillery as NK's hub of power and only defense/deterrent against a ROK first strike. Which is why it is prepositioned to cause maximum economic and civilian target damage against the Greater Seoul Metropolitan Area (GSMA). That's also why their ammo stockpiles are not large enough to fight a war; they only want/need enough to annihilate Seoul. I forget the exact numbers but projections are that hundreds of thousands of rounds would land in the GSMA every hour for the first 48 hours of any conflict.

Any kind of attack against NK's artillery assets would be a direct attack on the country's defense and regime's power. There's no way that KJI or his military would allow such an attack. The ROKs would be insane to retaliate unless they were committed to sacrificing their economy and fighting a full scale war.
13 posted on 12/13/2010 9:00:55 AM PST by Domalais
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To: Reaganite Republican
While WikiLeaks-exposed cables last month indicated Beijing was also frustrated with the Kim regime's unpredictable brinkmanship -

Wikileaks didn't tell us anything about China, because only a moron (read State Department) would believe anything China tells them either publically or 'privately'.

14 posted on 12/13/2010 9:01:46 AM PST by Pan_Yan
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To: Pan_Yan

The cable said a Chinese envoy to let the South know they might make a deal...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/29/wikileaks-cables-china-reunified-korea


15 posted on 12/13/2010 9:36:22 AM PST by Reaganite Republican
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To: N3WBI3
Either roll over NK (it would make the Pacific Campaign of WW2 seem tame) or retaliate to NK aggression with a 1.5* sever strike to the site of the aggression.

You are familiar with the Tomahawk cruise missile, right?

A "handful" of these... say, six... would provide your 1.5x retaliation quite nicely I think.


16 posted on 12/13/2010 9:38:58 AM PST by Oberon (Big Brutha Be Watchin'.)
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To: Domalais

I agree with everything you post here, imho you definitely are very, very well informed on this issue

But the thinking in the South is that the North is not suicidal, and knows it cannot “win” a full scale war.

When they fired at the island last month, the south fired on their positions... it’s not like the South has never hit back.

I don’t know if such an attack is prudent, but the the North is in a weak position politically, the Army doens’t dig this son of his AT all. And I would do everything in my power to at least make the North think Seoul would launch airstrikes... they surely need to establish some deterrent against firing on civilian areas, there’s next to none now


17 posted on 12/13/2010 9:42:37 AM PST by Reaganite Republican
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To: Domalais

BTW, the piece referred to them hitting the artillery that is firing on them... last time it was some coastal position obviously, nothing to do with the vital assets surrounding Seoul


18 posted on 12/13/2010 9:45:15 AM PST by Reaganite Republican
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To: Oberon
You know, it seems to me that a handful of Tomahawks could sort this right out.

Cruise missiles are incredibly vulnerable to antiaircraft defenses. You must suppress the antiaircraft defenses before you send in the Tomahawks.
19 posted on 12/13/2010 9:54:02 AM PST by Cheburashka (Democratic Underground - the Hogwarts of Stupid.)
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To: Reaganite Republican
I have some experience in the region.

NK cannot win a war, we know that and they know that. But the harsh reality is that the North has virtually nothing to lose, and the South has everything to lose. It's like playing chicken when you're driving a new BMW and your opponent is driving an LTD. The economic damage that would be inflicted on Seoul and the ROK would take a generation to repair. The ROKs are too proud of their economy to even think about risking it... just look at how thrilled they were to become a member of the G20. There were ads on the radio and TV for almost a year leading up to the event.

NK’s goal #1 is survival of the regime. Not the country; KJI and the elites. If that's threatened in any way, I really think that all options are on the table for them.

It's all just political posturing from politicians that took some polls and are saying what the people want to hear. I don't believe for a minute that they'd actually pull the trigger.

20 posted on 12/13/2010 11:14:37 AM PST by Domalais
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To: Domalais
Welcome to Free Republic, and to the North Korean threads in particular.

We need more of your type here, weighing in with insight, rather than holding back and lurking.

I trust you have read us for some time?,

Again, welcome.....

21 posted on 12/14/2010 2:08:08 AM PST by AmericanInTokyo (**George W Bush** bears as much responsibility as CARTER, CLINTON and OBAMA over N. Korean nukes)
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To: AmericanInTokyo

Thanks.

I didn’t lurk all that long... six months or so, maybe less.


22 posted on 12/14/2010 8:07:37 AM PST by Domalais
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To: Domalais

Thanks

Like the post says, no southern government can survive just sitting there like last time, and they need to at least provide some small deterrent

THEN get the Chinese on this... it’s certainly in their own interest to put a lid on the Kims, if not remove them- do a deal with the army, whatever

But just absorbing hits has the public up in arms...and it is a democracy


23 posted on 12/15/2010 6:14:31 AM PST by Reaganite Republican
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To: Domalais

BTW, I agree with everything you say except for the Norks have nothing to lose... the Kims have everything lose, and would promptly in any large scale war

I feel they would not scale up a conflict unless forced


24 posted on 12/15/2010 6:16:41 AM PST by Reaganite Republican
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To: Reaganite Republican
As part of this insane policy of re-engaging the former Soviet Union in yet another damned SALT treaty, we should define "disposing" of nukes that are over the quota as "giving them to South Korea" so that they may dispose of them as they see fit.

This should provide liberals with the wet-dream of weakening the security of the US and the globe, while giving the rest of us stuck on this train to hell some level of satisfaction that the nukes might actually be put to good use after all.

25 posted on 12/15/2010 6:21:49 AM PST by The Theophilus
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To: Domalais; Reaganite Republican; AmericanInTokyo; TigerLikesRooster; maquiladora

Domalais - no offense intended, but I believe you (and many others) greatly over-estimate the numbers and effect of the DPRK’s long range artillery.

I am not exactly sure how far north you would draw the boundary of the GSMA, but for arguments sake, the numbers below are based upon how much artillery the DPRK can bring to bear on downtown Seoul (financial/highrise district).

Contrary to popular belief, not all of the DPRK’s approx 10,000 artillery tubes positioned north of the DMZ have the range to reach downtown Seoul. In fact, the estimates I have seen are more like only 250-500 artillery pieces (and the higher #s only come into play if you include their 240mm MLRS systems).

The only DPRK arty with range to hit dt Seoul from behind the DMZ are the M-1985/M-1991 240mm MLRS systems and the M-1978/M-1989 170mm howitzer.

The DPRK is estimated to have only 200 of these 240mm MLRS systems and 200 170mm howitzers down by the DMZ. That’s not to make light of the situation because a signifcant amount of shells could still be layed down on Seoul, but a few hundred artillery tubes firing on downtown Seoul is ALOT different than 10,000 tubes.

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?162240-Bluffer-s-Guide-North-Korea-strikes!-%282009%29

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/m-1985-mrl.htm

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-14/fighter-jets-to-buzz-seoul-as-south-korea-simulates-attack.html

Also, the ROK military has recently expressed confidence that in all likelihood it would be able to detect if the DPRK was preparing to launch its long range arty on Seoul and would be able to pre-emptively knock out a number of those tubes. Not to mention whatever surviving long range batteries are going to be priority for counter-battery fire.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2637356/posts

I believe the real threat to Seoul are the DPRK’s SRBMs (SCUDs and FROGs). I suppose the other big threat would be if the DPRK staged an invasion and advanced 10-20 miles on the western side of the DMZ they could wheel forward some of those other 10,000 shorter range arty tubes.


26 posted on 12/15/2010 7:07:39 AM PST by jhpigott
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To: Free Vulcan
Another N. Korean military provocation like the one they did on Yeonpyeong will invite air strikes by SK (and probably US.) Otherwise, as the article says, current gov would be dead.

On the other hand, next provocation may be of different kind. High on the list of likely scenario is the infiltration by their special force inside S. Korea and carry out some serious sabotage operation. With no artillery sites or missile base to hit, the retaliation may not be directly reciprocal: NK could knock out some strategic target(not necessarily military,) and SK may have to retaliate by knocking out some NK's military installation, which is not a source of attack.

27 posted on 12/15/2010 7:34:19 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster (The way to crush the bourgeois is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation)
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To: jhpigott
For the next confrontation, they could hit(blow up) a strategic target inside SK with special force. SK could retaliate by hitting some military target in NK, and then NK could fire their long-range rockets or artillery, which can reach close to Seoul. They will wait and see how public opinion will shift in SK: getting even more outraged or starting to get spooked.

It is worth monitoring pro-North leftwing elements in SK. When things heat up on military front, they will also create political or social chaos in SK. In commie playbook, two go in tandem. So level of their activity can serve as another indicator. If they suddenly create political turmoil on several fronts simultaneously, it will tell you that things are getting ominous. This will be matched by non-stop belligerent rhetoric from North.

28 posted on 12/15/2010 7:44:54 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster (The way to crush the bourgeois is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation)
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To: jhpigott

Unfortunately, this is a subject that I cannot discuss in detail.

Just consider that the direct effects of artillery would be only a small part of the effects on Seoul. A city that size deprived of power, water, and food would be a disaster management nightmare.

You are correct that the SRBMs are potentially a greater threat than conventional long range artillery. This is partially because of the wide variety of WMD payloads that could be delivered. How much destruction Seoul would receive depends on how those SRBMs are allocated between military targets and civilian targets. Traditional military planning would assume that most of those would be used against ROK and US military targets which are beyond the range of NK artillery. That assumes that NK actually thinks they can win a conventional war. I would be more inclined to assume that NK would inflict as much damage against civilian targets as possible to force an agreement that would ensure that survival of KJI and his regime.


29 posted on 12/15/2010 8:39:04 AM PST by Domalais
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To: Reaganite Republican

I think China would shelter KJI if he could in any way spin that ROKUS aggression forced him to do whatever he did.


30 posted on 12/15/2010 8:44:43 AM PST by Domalais
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To: Domalais

Perfectly understand not being able to discuss this as I am sure it involves plenty of classified information not available open source.

I guess my point was that it is not a foregone conclusion that Seoul would look like Dresden after a NORK attack. 200-400 tubes even if only firing for a couple hours would make a mess of Seoul and knock out alot of civilian infrastructure to bring the city to its knees, but it could recover. But if 10,000 tubes were firing issues like power grid failure, water and food supply interruptions would be moot becuase there wouldn’t be any buildings standing nor many inhabitants left alive to complain.

Granted, the Dresden option does come into play if the NORKs can make a push south of the DMZ or if Kim can manage to strap a crude nuke on an A2 . . .

+1 on the inclination that Kim would focus his targeting on civies


31 posted on 12/15/2010 9:05:25 AM PST by jhpigott
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To: TigerLikesRooster

What strikes me as ominous is the tone of Gates, Mullen, Blair and Sharp.

Almost in chorus, these guys are all saying things are going to get dicey on the peninsula


32 posted on 12/15/2010 9:19:55 AM PST by jhpigott
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To: jhpigott

I think nukes are less likely than simple dirty bombs.

It’s expected that NK would make it south of the DMZ.


33 posted on 12/15/2010 11:40:14 AM PST by Domalais
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To: jhpigott

Thanks for an extremely enlightening post- much obliged, sir

Only thing I would add is tough to take out the ones they do have within range, my understanding is many of the artillery pieces are on tracks and pull right back into a mountainside cave once fired and their position betrayed.

Could a pre-emptive strike on these positions with, say, cruise missiles throw cold water on the Norks’ plans, tho...?


34 posted on 12/15/2010 2:37:41 PM PST by Reaganite Republican
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To: Domalais

IMHO Norks huge army might bog down in the face of US/SK air superiority, I don’t think they would get far into the south as they cannot control the airspace south of the DMZ

And the US has already pledged F-22s


35 posted on 12/15/2010 2:40:22 PM PST by Reaganite Republican
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To: The Theophilus

Right on, Theo

This SALT “deal” must have The Gipper turning in his grave at 10,000rpm

Utterly appaling


36 posted on 12/15/2010 2:47:14 PM PST by Reaganite Republican
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To: Reaganite Republican

They probably won’t react at all to any ‘provocation’ by the South. It’s not their modus operandi. In all the past Nork aggression, they always wait until they can strike without any significant retaliation.

The Chonan sinking was a classic example. Was it a torpedo, or a leftover sea-mine from the Korean war? At the time, no one really knew, so the South waited until they knew... months later.

Far too late to react.

Which doesn’t mean that the Norks won’t remember this and then stage more aggression a few months from now.


37 posted on 12/16/2010 1:11:56 AM PST by gogogodzilla (Live free or die!)
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To: N3WBI3

Considering the mountainous terrain of North Korea, small tactical nukes used near ground level would work wonders, as the radiation would be contained on all sides by the mountain ranges.


38 posted on 12/16/2010 1:14:46 AM PST by gogogodzilla (Live free or die!)
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To: AdmSmith; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; bigheadfred; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; Delacon; ...

Thanks jhpigott. From earlier in the month.


39 posted on 12/28/2010 6:45:43 PM PST by SunkenCiv (The 2nd Amendment follows right behind the 1st because some people are hard of hearing.)
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