Skip to comments.Delaware Exit Polls: Castle Would Have Lost 2010 US Senate race
Posted on 12/27/2010 2:57:58 PM PST by Moseley
Mike Castle would have lost the US Senate race in Delaware to Democrat Chris Coons, according to surprising exit polls by CNN in Delaware on election day, November 2, 2010. Contradicting theories advanced by Delaware Republican insiders, voters in Delaware on November 2 would have elected Democrat Chris Coons regardless of whether the Republican nominee were Mike Castle or Christine ODonnell. The analysis places the focus on calls for systemic reforms of the Republican Party of Delaware.
According to CNN: despite pre-election polls that showed longtime Republican Rep. Mike Castle handily beating Coons in a hypothetical match-up, the voters who turned out today said they would still probably have sent Coons to Washington over Castle, backing him 44-43 percent.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/11/02/exit-polls-the-surprise-in-delaware/#more-132853 Exit Polls: the surprise in Delaware, by CNNs Rebecca Sinderbrand, Novmeber 2, 2010.
Exit polls for Fox News also found that Christine ODonnell won the votes of Independents by 49% to 46%. (The graphic shows these percentages reversed 46% to 49% compared to the anchor's report.)
Meanwhile, only 82% of Republicans voted for Christine ODonnell.
It is undeniable that Republicans failing to unify behind the Republican nominee ODonnell cost the Republican Party the US Senate seat. An amazing 18% of Republicans rejected their partys nominee and voted for the Democrat Chris Coons. Republicans voting against their partys nominee cost the US Senate seat from Delaware for the GOP.
CNNs analysis further explained: the exit polls lay out the political and demographic roadblocks facing any Tea Party favorite here. Nearly half the state's voters describe themselves as moderate. Nearly another 1 in 4 call themselves liberal. This is Biden country: 58 percent of Delaware voters say they approve of President Obama's job performance. And 36 percent say they strongly oppose the Tea Party.
“This is Biden country”
I pity the state of Delaware. To many buffoons in the state and not enough Conservatives. A prescription for failure.
Thanks to Karl “Porky Pig” Rove!!!
One thing is certain, when your own arty won’t back you it is doubtful you will win.
Christine O’Donnell was shot in the back the night after the primary’s.
FNC is anything but conservative. It's a combination of RINOs and neocons with a good sprinkling of liberals thrown in for good measure.
Well, you don’t have to remind me to never set foot in that little shithole state.
BOR wouldn’t be bad if he would ask the guest a question, and then allow the guest to complete the answer.
BOR has this compulsion to interrupt the guest after the guest says 3 or 4 words of the first sentence. Then you get BOR and the guest talking on top of one another. And his sometime host, Laura Ingraham is just as bad, if not worse.
At least Greta usually allows the guest to answer the question, in full.
Why? They know what they're doing (er, getting!)! Pity ourselves when we have to subsidize them.
I always refer to Hannity as “Dunce Boy”, man that guy is a brick short of a full load.
You hear that, Karl, you worthless establishment troll.
People in DE don’t know that though. They truly believe that success rests with government “action” to “solve”
“problems,” and there’s nothing we can do to reverse that misguided “thinking.”
Mostly too DE is a “handing chad” congressional district dropping out of Philadelphia. Too bad the old Penn family cut it separate from PA
Based on the way those simple mice vote, I'm glad it's separated. I wonder if they'd take Philadelphia?
The good news is that DE only has 3 electoral votes. The bad news is they have 2 senators like every other state.
Which is another way of saying that Republican party did not unite behind the Republican nominee.
Conservatives are always expected to support the party nominee if it is a moderate. Moderates always betray the party if they don’t get their way. This has been going on for 40 years, since when Christine was 1 years old.
Republican moderates ran moderate GOP Congressman John Anderson as a third-party candidate against Ronald Reagan in 1980 to try to sabotage and defeat Ronald Reagan’s campaign for President.
Republican moderates ran moderate Republican MARSHALL COLEMAN in the 1994 US Senate race to destroy Oliver North’s campaign for US Senate. Coleman pulled away enough Republican votes to help elect CHUCK ROBB to the US Senate.
This states the problem: Conservatives have for years been hood-winked into supporting moderate Republican nominees, while moderates sabotage and destroy any conservative who wins the nomination.
If the moderates had not run a third-party candidate, Oliver North would have been elected:
Virginia United States Senate election, 1994
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Chuck Robb 938,376 45.6 %
Republican Oliver North 882,213 42.9 %
Independent Marshall Coleman 235,324 11.4 %
The problem with the analysis is that it doesn’t take into account that the Republican turnout was suppressed.
You are correct in that this doesn’t take into account what the voter turnout would have looked like had Castle been in the mix. A 1% negative number is basically a statistical tie. The one thing I think this really shows is that the voters have told COD for the 3rd time in five years they aren’t interested in her as a state wide elected politician. She may well have a future in some position in DE but it doesn’t appear to be an elected one.
Exit polls about the outcome of a race that was never waged are pretty much meaningless. He may have lost, he may have won. We don’t know...the moves on the chess board that would have determined that ultimate outcome of such a matchup were never made by either side.
Hopefully...this will not be a repeat of the continuous false election assertion....like the one still pushed today that Ross Perot cost Bush 41 the White House...when all polls showed that Clinton would have won without Perot in the election.
Castle would not have beaten Coons....lets hope that the Liberal RINO element in the GOP does not use the “Castle would have beat Coons” falsehood
Perhaps, but it is the only evidence we have got.
By contrast, GOP moderates in Delaware are busy spinning their theories based purely on rank speculation, with no evidence to support htem whatsoever.
SO the only evidence we have shows that the Republican Party of Delaware needs to restructure and rebuild... not hide behind excuses of blaming one individual.
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