Skip to comments.When Will The GOP Candidates Announce for 2012?
Posted on 01/10/2011 3:00:56 AM PST by grassboots.org
I am not a prophet nor do I play one on television.
Nevertheless, here is my take on possible announcement dates by the candidates most likely to run for President in 2012. All of them would be wise to get in by the time the Reagan Library debate in May, 2011 is held.
Tim Pawlenty: Expected in Iowa to close his book tour the last two days of January. Perhaps while he is still in Iowa on February 1st, he will make his plans known (or make a short trip back home to tell us from his home in Minnesota). I think he is definitely in and getting in first, often, and early will allow him the press coverage that other candidates won't get. The press will pace around him Iowa the next few months like a cat waiting feeding time. Like Mike Huckabee at this time four years ago, he is probably not well known in Iowa or around the country. That means a free ride unless he picks up steam, then out will come the sharks prepared to eat him up if he has any scandals, terrible votes, foolish statements or bad hair days.
Rick Santorum: Another candidate who needs to get in early, but who has better name recognition. He has made many trips to Iowa already and as a longtime social conservative may be the best candidate to challenge Palin and Huckabee among those voters if they run. Santorum will have to give better reasons for endorsing Arlen Specter over Pat Toomey in 2004 than he has to date. His answer to this point is revealing - it was a tactical, political move. He can hardly argue that his pragmatic decision helped his....
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Sooner the better. After this weekend it is an emergency crisis to get the Liberals out.
Probably, when THEY decide it's time to announce their intentions.
Romney threw both Elections 2008 and 2010 to the DNC.
Everyone now knows about Rove and TeamRomney vs the GOP candidates in 2010.
In 2008, the McCain/Palin ticket was up ++4 to 10 pts. in some polls, days prior to the election.
So rather than helping the GOP, Romney once again
had his backstabbing TeamROMNEY
attack Gov. Palin to throw Election2008 to the DNC.
Late in October, The American Spectator's The Prowler revealed:
"Former Mitt Romney presidential campaign staffers
have been involved in spreading anti-Palin spin to reporters, seeking to diminish her standing after the election.
'Sarah Palin is a lightweight, she won't be the first, not even the third, person people will think of when it comes to 2012,'
says one former Romney aide
'The only serious candidate ready to challenge to lead the Republican Party is Mitt Romney.
"Some former Romney aides were behind the recent leaks to media, including CNN, that Governor Sarah Palin was a 'diva' and was going off message intentionally."
Most are not going to announce any intention to run until later this time.
I don’t blame then. Last time they started so early that burnout happened.
It is possible, but I also think at least one candidate is going to get the idea that they will get a boost from going first and lots of free publicity and no competition in Iowa, South Carolina, or New Hampshire. Once that happens no one will want to get left out, except for Fred Thompson, Newt Gingrich or Rudy Giuliani.
They won’t announce their intentions to run, until the very last moment possible.
The instant a candidate announces is the moment that the federal election commission and the election laws governing financing turn on. A candidate can posture and spend their money almost without limits before they are an officially declared candidate. One it’s official they are subject to spending limits and oversight. It would be stupid to not wait. Thus, I wouldn’t expect Mrs. Palin to declare her intentions until the day before the GOP convention.
The post above was for you, my friend.
The things you say are certainly worth considering. However, I am not sure how “the law” defines announcing. I remember in the past, candidates announcing several times, hoping to get a boost each time. I am not sure what makes it official.
Also, most debate forums will require that a candidate be announced. Palin can’t afford the heat she’s take for bypassing more than one or two debates. Fred Thompson tried that and was skewered by all of the others.
So far, any potential that has been asked if and when says they will not announce too early this time.
Greta asked Palin on her show a while back when people should announce, she said “summer is early enough”.
I don’t think they will worry too much about a debate set up at the Reagan Library in March by the MSM.
If nobody has announced, there won’t be a debate. Besides, that was probably set up by the MSM to try and force the candidates to the timeline the MSM wants for reasons that aren’t hard to figure out.
CPAC will be quite an indication...
CPAC will be quite an indication...
Last time it was boycotted by both Palin (because it included The Birch Society) and Huckabee (because it included Log Cabin Republicans).