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High gasoline prices may boost a Palin presidential run
Texas for Sarah Palin ^ | March 8, 2011 at 10:30 PM CST | Josh Painter

Posted on 03/08/2011 10:01:41 PM PST by Josh Painter

Timing is everything, as the old saying goes, and no political issue depends on timing as much as that of energy. When prices for gasoline at the pump are high, energy climbs to the top of the electorate's list of concerns, but when prices are low, people tend not to think about it. If the price at the pump continues to climb and stays high through the summer, it will be very much on the minds of voters. And that will play to the strength of Sarah Palin's hand, as Scott Conroy recently observed at RealClearPolitics:

It would be difficult for Palin's GOP rivals, and even her Democratic critics, to deny that energy issues fall directly into the wheelhouse of the former Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commissioner who went on to lead a state where almost 90 percent of the budget is funded by oil revenue. As Tina Fey might say, Palin can see oil pipelines from her house.

During an appearance on Fox News last weekend, Palin nodded in anticipation and smiled confidently as host Jeanine Pirro lined up a question about what the government should do about rising gas prices.

Speaking with unbridled relish, Palin replied that opening the strategic oil reserves was not the solution to the problem and reverted to her old mantra that the government should "drill here and drill now" before going into a more in-depth criticism of the Obama administration's energy policies.

"Back in '08, our U.S. crude also was trading at about $100 a barrel as it is today for about six months, and that was right before our world economy imploded," Palin said. "And now here we are back again, so [Obama's] timing - his destructive timing - of locking up 97 percent of our off-shore and not allowing ANWR to be touched, not allowing domestic drilling to take place to the degree that it should, it is terrifying where he is leading us in terms of being at the mercy of foreign regimes that would seek our demise to produce energy for us."

[...]

As Palin continues to generate criticism from those who frequently suggest that she has not demonstrated a thorough understanding of the issues facing the country, the energy topic could offer a prime opportunity for her to prove them wrong.

As she continues to mull a presidential run, Palin figures to take particular note that energy issues figure to loom especially large in the nation's first voting state of Iowa.

[More]

It has not escaped Gov. Palin's attention. She tweeted Tuesday:
Obama's so wrong on energy/scary wrong on oil;AK alone w/billions bbls & trillions cu ft of nat gas.(Other states, too) http://bit.ly/hX5AzT
Her link points to this Investors.com article showing the results of its latest poll, which clearly demonstrates that Americans' attitudes about domestic drilling are very much in sync with what she has been saying for years:
With the price of gas up 39 cents at the pump in a month and heading higher amid turmoil in much of the Middle East, Americans wonder why the U.S. isn't doing more to exploit its own oil resources.

They favor drilling in territorial waters, 67%-29%, according to a new IBD/TIPP poll. That is up from 61%-30% from last May and 64%-25% when Republicans touted drilling in the 2008 election as oil topped $147 a barrel.

There's also been a solid shift toward drilling in Alaska's Arc tic National Wildlife Refuge, with support at 54%-40%. That's up from 49%-43% last year.

A solid 65%-21% favor tapping federal shale reserves in states like Colorado, Wyoming and Utah, off just slightly from May.

"Americans understand we rely heavily on oil imported from the Middle East and the recent events cause concern and uncertainties in their minds," said Raghavan Mayur, president of Technometrica Market Intelligence, which conducted the poll.

[More]

Though most Americans relate to the energy issue as an economic one, Gov. Palin has often pointed out that energy trancends the economy. It is a national security issue. Our military depends on a stable source of petroleum products to fuel jets, tanks, trucks and many of its ships. When that supply is interrupted, the military can't move. That's why our national strategic petroleum reserve exists. It's there for the military to draw from if its supply is suddenly cut off or significantly reduced. It's not there to tap every time prices get near or above the four dollar level, something Sarah Palin understands, but President Obama does not.

Energy security is one more reason why our nation sorely needs a national energy plan which draws on "all of the above" sources, but includes a serious commitment to explore and produce much more oil and natural gas domestically. Besides, we could use the jobs which would be created, addressing another key concern on the minds of the electorate.

Sarah Palin's signature issue may have just arrived, which has to weigh heavily on her decision to run or not to run. No other candidate for 2012 knows this issue as well as she, and it's a club she can use to beat up on an incumbent president who nothing to reduce energy prices or increase domestic production, so beholden is he to the green lobby. High oil prices are knocking on that door of opportunity she has spoken of, and her time to make history may be waiting on the other side.

- JP


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; Military/Veterans; Politics
KEYWORDS: domesticdrilling; energy; energysecurity; freepressforpalin; gasprices; palin; sarahpalin
Gas WTF
1 posted on 03/08/2011 10:01:44 PM PST by Josh Painter
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To: Josh Painter

I think Palin running for POTUS is not going to pan out. She just doesn’t seem like she is interested.


2 posted on 03/08/2011 10:05:20 PM PST by Lazlo in PA (Now living in a newly minted Red State.)
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To: Josh Painter

The ONLY GOP nominee that will lower the price of fuels in America will be Sarah Palin.


3 posted on 03/08/2011 10:08:40 PM PST by Eye of Unk ("These people are either at your neck or at your knees" A quote by Winston Churchill)
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To: Josh Painter

Sarah Palin’s signature issue may have just arrived?


4 posted on 03/08/2011 10:10:18 PM PST by tsowellfan (Don't Blame Me, I voted for Alan Keyes)
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To: Josh Painter

Sarah will not run.

She is great and really helping the conservative movement from where she is right now.


5 posted on 03/08/2011 10:15:20 PM PST by NoLibZone (Impeach Obama, then try him for treason. / Homosexuals reject diversity.)
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To: Eye of Unk
I'm not just referring to Sara Palin, but all the candidates... At this point in America, our candidates are going to need more than 1 signature issue and they are going to have to be specific. Just shouting "lower taxes" and "smaller government" and "repeal Obamacare" is not enough to win non-republican voters. Furthermore, We can't hope for a downturn in this nation such as high gas prices to help our candidate, our candidate has to be much stronger than that.

Remember, Obama may have something up his sleeve to lower oil prices temporarily just before the elections. he could go to Saudi Arabia and made a deal with them to help him in the election by pumping more oil... imagine if gas went down to $1.50 a gallon in October... How will that 1 signature issue be working for us then?

6 posted on 03/08/2011 10:18:51 PM PST by tsowellfan (Don't Blame Me, I voted for Alan Keyes)
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To: Josh Painter

Michelle Bachmann might have a better chance than Sarah Palin.


7 posted on 03/08/2011 10:22:05 PM PST by madison10
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To: NoLibZone
She is great and really helping the conservative movement from where she is right now.

I agree. She's like Rush Limbaugh. I know he would make a great President with his ideas, but he's much more needed for the cause doing what he does now. It's a sacrifice.

I do believe Sarah will run though. (unless she sees something in the polls that says not to)

8 posted on 03/08/2011 10:22:54 PM PST by tsowellfan (Don't Blame Me, I voted for Alan Keyes)
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To: madison10

I seriously doubt that. She appears to be more like the person the dems and the media try to accuse Palin of being, a little dim witted.


9 posted on 03/08/2011 10:28:25 PM PST by Blue Highway ("Judge me by the people with whom I surround myself" Barack Obama, Oct 15, 2008 Presidential debate)
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To: Josh Painter
Palin knows more about energy than the entire Washington establishment put together. Naturally the pusillanimous weasels will say she is not presidential material.
10 posted on 03/08/2011 10:30:22 PM PST by hinckley buzzard
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To: Josh Painter; onyx; Clyde5445
................................. FRegards
11 posted on 03/08/2011 10:31:42 PM PST by gonzo ( Buy more ammo, dammit! You should already have the firearms .................. FRegards)
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To: Josh Painter; onyx; Clyde5445
................................. FRegards
12 posted on 03/08/2011 10:34:26 PM PST by gonzo ( Buy more ammo, dammit! You should already have the firearms .................. FRegards)
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To: gonzo

(Damn)


13 posted on 03/08/2011 10:35:07 PM PST by gonzo ( Buy more ammo, dammit! You should already have the firearms .................. FRegards)
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To: Lazlo in PA

“She just doesn’t seem like she is interested.”
______________

Then you haven’t been paying attention.

- JP


14 posted on 03/08/2011 11:10:50 PM PST by Josh Painter ("The only thing these 'investments' will get us is a bullet train to bankruptcy." - Palin)
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To: Blue Highway

That’s a pantload.


15 posted on 03/08/2011 11:13:50 PM PST by moonhawk ( To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women.)
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To: Josh Painter

I have. When did she set up her exploratory? I can’t find it. If she didn’t what is she waiting for?


16 posted on 03/08/2011 11:22:58 PM PST by Lazlo in PA (Now living in a newly minted Red State.)
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To: Lazlo in PA

She doesn’t need an exploratory. She won’t have campaign controllers making decisions for her. She won’t hire pollsters to tell her what to say. An unconventional campaign is what she has talked about. She won’t hire political advisers either, but will be briefed by experts she trusts.

When she is ready, she will just declare her candidacy. All eyes will be watching as she redefines politics in the internet age.


17 posted on 03/08/2011 11:45:46 PM PST by excopconservative
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To: excopconservative
All eyes will be watching as she redefines politics in the internet age.

The only eyes watching will be the internet folks. Everyone else who read papers or get their info from the lamestream will not even know she is alive. The old media is dying but they are far from dead. Just drive around and look at how many people still receive a local paper in the morning. I was rooting for her but you need a ground game ready or be building one to be competitive. Obummer will crush her if she does not.

She doesn’t need an exploratory. She won’t have campaign controllers making decisions for her. She won’t hire pollsters to tell her what to say. An unconventional campaign is what she has talked about. She won’t hire political advisers either, but will be briefed by experts she trusts.

I would also like for you to show me were she showed any interest in the endeavor? You can come up with all the wishful dreams like in the above statement, but there is not one place were she said she had any plans to do any of these odd things. I'm not saying I won't support her if it looks like she will run, but right now she is not. Did Reagan sit on his ass as the primaries ramped up in '76 and '80?

18 posted on 03/09/2011 12:04:56 AM PST by Lazlo in PA (Now living in a newly minted Red State.)
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To: Lazlo in PA

It’s nine months before the first primary election. I’m pretty sure Reagan wasn’t forming gay little committees this far out.


19 posted on 03/09/2011 2:04:11 AM PST by agere_contra (Whenever a Liberal admits to something: he is covering up something far worse)
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To: Josh Painter

Can someone with better photo shopping expertise then myself please change the gas sign from “LOL,OMG and WTF” to
“LOL,OMG and FUBO”?

Thank you


20 posted on 03/09/2011 2:51:57 AM PST by pineybill
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To: Lazlo in PA

For your information Reagan entered late into the process.....but I don’t think that Palin will do that similar plan -

Also for your info, Palin said herself that she will not do an exploratory committee if she ran, she would just jump in. Palin did not deny that she got people in Iowa and if you read her book, she hates the massive amount of advisers and consultants and will not hire those type of people......the thing is that after two years many people around here still have no clue on how Palin thinks or how she do things but the information is out there if someone really wants to find out.....in fact some of the very things that she is doing now is very similar to what she wrote in her book ‘Going Rogue’ when she was planning to run for Governor.


21 posted on 03/09/2011 3:33:05 AM PST by Bigtigermike
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To: Bigtigermike
Gas Prices always elects Presidents.

Larry Sabato of UVA studied it.

22 posted on 03/09/2011 3:41:16 AM PST by scooby321
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To: Josh Painter
It's turning out to be a repeat of the second half of Jimmy Carter's only term in office as President at the rate things are going.
23 posted on 03/09/2011 4:31:48 AM PST by RayChuang88 (FairTax: America's economic cure)
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To: Lazlo in PA
"I think Palin running for POTUS is not going to pan out. She just doesn’t seem like she is interested."

We'll see. I would never underestimate Palin. She just had a big meeting in Alaska with Jan Brewer, Gov. of Arizona.

Top issues for Americans are Energy Independence / oil/gas drilling and Immigration/border security.

I can just see her formulating a sound argument right now that shows how solving those two problems will create jobs, lower taxes, and out-of-control-spending.

Maybe there will be a Palin/Brewer ticket. :)

24 posted on 03/09/2011 4:31:48 AM PST by Matchett-PI ("Freedom's Just Another Word For Nothing Left to Tax " ~ Gagdad Bob)
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To: Bigtigermike

bttt

Based on what you wrote in #21, what do you think of this?

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/2685844/posts?page=24#24


25 posted on 03/09/2011 4:35:28 AM PST by Matchett-PI ("Freedom's Just Another Word For Nothing Left to Tax " ~ Gagdad Bob)
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To: Lazlo in PA
The old media is dying but they are far from dead.

Wise words. We need to understand that a very, very small percentage of the voting population is going to read Free Republic. We have to reach them where they are, not where we wish they were.

26 posted on 03/09/2011 4:53:14 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer (biblein90days.org))
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To: Bigtigermike
For your information Reagan entered late into the process

Good point, he announced his candidacy for President less than one year before the general election.

27 posted on 03/09/2011 4:57:25 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer (biblein90days.org))
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To: Josh Painter

Drill here...drill now....tax the hell out of the drillers....the palin way.


28 posted on 03/09/2011 5:11:24 AM PST by moose-matson (I keep it in my head)
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To: Bigtigermike

the thing is that after two years many people around here still have no clue on how Palin thinks or how she do things but the information is out there if someone really wants to find out.....


I think you make a valid point. Now considering that only a fraction of the voting public is deeply interested in politics the way people of FR follow are indicates to me that reaching them becomes a very big threshold to be crossed. I’m not sure you can cross it without some very strong and controlled groups operating in each state with a very detailed plan and message to reach the voters. It is much different to run in a small populated area like AK than it is to run in 50 states with most that are basically much larger in population by large numbers.

An unconventional campaign maybe the route for her but I think she’ll need a lot more of the campaign style that has traditionally been used to reach the voters. We’ll see but in any case it will make for an interesting next 12-15 months.

Take care.


29 posted on 03/09/2011 5:42:53 AM PST by deport
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To: gonzo

Selector must have been on “Auto”. ;-)


30 posted on 03/09/2011 5:50:52 AM PST by Dead Corpse (III%. The last line in the sand)
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To: moose-matson
"Tax the hell out of the drillers"...

You mean the drillers that were camping on their leases and not actually producing anything? The same drillers who used cronyism to artificially restrict the markets? Those drillers?

Drill here. Drill now. Drill every where... Free markets work.

31 posted on 03/09/2011 5:54:25 AM PST by Dead Corpse (III%. The last line in the sand)
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To: moose-matson

Drill here...drill now....tax the hell out of the drillers....the palin way.


It is much larger than just drill baby drill. At the minimum there are several very different processes needed to bring the crude from below the ground to the pump at the local gasoline station. Each process has its own unique problems and steps. The steps/processes are as I see it:

Drilling and finding the crude
Gathering and delivery of the crude to the refineries
Refining
Retail distribution of the product to the local gasoline station

Oil speculators of a world wide fungible product have been one the reason that prices rise out of control like they have in the past few weeks/months. How do you control the world markets when they aren’t under the US control? I don’t think we have refineries sitting around idle waiting on crude to be delivered at this time. No easy solution exist imo.


32 posted on 03/09/2011 6:00:33 AM PST by deport
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To: deport

One of the primary drivers for the price increase is threatened scarcity. Remove the threat of scarcity, and the price will drop back.


33 posted on 03/09/2011 6:11:25 AM PST by Dead Corpse (III%. The last line in the sand)
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To: deport

yeah because she doesn’t know how to do good ads that can reach the people /s

http://il.youtube.com/watch?v=bUVy2SBbg64&feature=related

http://il.youtube.com/watch?v=xr3sj8q5lfY

http://il.youtube.com/watch?v=X67qgNtZPdQ

and she doesn’t know how to push the narrative and get the media attention /s

and she can’t reach the people when she speaks /s
http://il.youtube.com/user/SarahPalinAK#p/u/0/fPq8bF49NBU


34 posted on 03/09/2011 6:24:01 AM PST by unseen1
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To: Lazlo in PA

Well, you only have to wait about five weeks to know for sure.


35 posted on 03/09/2011 6:43:43 AM PST by meadsjn (Sarah 2012, or sooner)
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To: Matchett-PI

Bingo! Very close to what I was thinking......Sarah had once noted last year in very detail how that Obama had defunded or took money away from border security in the budget - I remembered in her book how she and her people went through her opponent Murkowski budget to point out things that very few people had looked at.

I do know that immigration and energy independence are winnable issues to the rest of the country - yeah it will get the leftist and enviro nuts in a uproar but it will drive many conservatives and independents out to vote


36 posted on 03/09/2011 7:05:22 AM PST by Bigtigermike
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To: Dead Corpse

Nope....I mean the excessive windfall profit tax that she imposed on top of all the existing taxes...it drove a few companies to look in friendlier places...


37 posted on 03/09/2011 8:49:55 AM PST by moose-matson (I keep it in my head)
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To: Bigtigermike; thackney
For your information Reagan entered late into the process

You are correct that Reagan jumped in late in '80. The difference now is that the Pres race kicks off earlier. Also, Reagan had tons of operates in states from the '76 run. He had existing groundwork in place. You need people on the ground working to get support for your candidacy. Mark Levin talks about this once and a while on his show because he was one of these people. It is super important. Especially if your negatives are so high.

Reagan also did a daily radio show to get the message out to the base. He was campaigning behind the scenes. He was not just occasionally hitting FOX news programs to slam some no name comedy hack. You can not entirely throw out the playbook for winning nat'l office because of the way some states have their primaries set up. Your message will not get out to the base in time. It is a PR battle with the base.

How disastrous will it look if she jumps in late and Romney routs her all the way through till the southern states vote later in the season? She will be done for good.

38 posted on 03/09/2011 8:52:04 AM PST by Lazlo in PA (Now living in a newly minted Red State.)
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To: moose-matson
Excessive? Conoco, no longer having it's legislators in their pockets, scaled back their diesel production project. In the meantime, other marginal producers like Eni were able to come in and set up shop since they were no longer being artificially restricted from the market due to an inequitable taxation policy.

Oh heavens! Competition! Can't have that... :-|

39 posted on 03/09/2011 9:10:41 AM PST by Dead Corpse (III%. The last line in the sand)
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To: Dead Corpse

How would an additional tax on production and an increased tax on profits make any difference on the Point Thompson field? If anything, it gave more reason not to produce the condensate and more reason to invest the capital in places like Canada.

This was/is a separate issue from non-producing leases as it would have no effect on them.


40 posted on 03/09/2011 9:24:53 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer (biblein90days.org))
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To: thackney

ACES was both more and less than that to my understanding. If I’m wrong, please show me where. Links preferable.


41 posted on 03/09/2011 9:30:42 AM PST by Dead Corpse (III%. The last line in the sand)
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To: Dead Corpse

Yes, excessive taxes...drove BP and others away...said it took taxes and fees to 75% of revenues....75%....


42 posted on 03/09/2011 9:33:15 AM PST by moose-matson (I keep it in my head)
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To: Dead Corpse

laska’s Clear and Equitable Share (ACES) Proposal
http://lba.legis.state.ak.us/aces/doc_log/2007-10-16_leg_finance_review_of_governors_aces_bill.pdf
A Brief Review of the Governor’s Proposed Changes to Oil Taxation (Gov. Palin, not current)

The ACES bill addresses four major items:
1. Base tax rate
2. A surcharge that increases revenue at higher oil prices
3. Tax credits, and
4. Information provided to the Department of Revenue.

ACES raises the base tax rate from 22.5% to 25% of the profit on oil production. ACES also increases the minimum tax to 10% of the gross value of oil production (rather than profit) from the Prudhoe Bay and Kuparuk fields.

A surcharge adds 0.25% to the base tax rate when the profit
per barrel exceeds $40.

A discussion of the fiscal impact of changes to tax credits would require knowing the amount (and type) of eligible credits that might be claimed. Legislative Finance does not have sufficient information to make projections. It should be clear, however, that reducing credits will increase revenue by more than indicated by a comparison of tax rates.

ACES includes several significant changes to the information that producers must provide to the state. The bill also includes several technical and conforming changes, and addresses unscheduled production interruption costs and auditing requirements of the Department.


43 posted on 03/09/2011 9:47:48 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer (biblein90days.org))
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To: Dead Corpse

This walks through a breakdown of numbers:

Alaska’s Oil and Gas Taxes
The 2006 Reform, 2007 Reform, and Beyond
http://lba.legis.state.ak.us/fiscal/doc_log/2008-12-09_dan_dickinson_presentation.pdf
Legislative Budget and Audit Committee
Alaska State Legislature

Note the title on page 13:

How did we get here –4 fold increase in tax


44 posted on 03/09/2011 9:53:05 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer (biblein90days.org))
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To: Bigtigermike

“I do know that immigration and energy independence are winnable issues to the rest of the country - yeah it will get the leftist and enviro nuts in a uproar but it will drive many conservatives and independents out to vote” ~ Bigtigermike

And the two biggest stalwarts on practical solutions to energy independence and illegal immigration are Sarah Palin and Jan Brewer.

I think this is pretty interesting on the issue of jobs vs high gasoline prices and presidential relection chances:

“..there is a statistically significant correlation between what Americans pay at the pump and a president’s public standing, based on a RealClearPolitics study of the average gasoline price, adjusted for inflation, and Gallup presidential approval ratings since 1976.

In fact, gas prices correlate far more with a president’s standing than the unemployment rate (for wonks, -.53 compared to -.14). For the non-wonks, that’s a strong indication that gas prices matter more politically than unemployment.

Excerpted from:

Real Clear Politics
March 9, 2011
Could Gas Prices Sink Obama’s Reelection?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/03/09/could_gas_prices_sink_obamas_reelection_2012_study_president_approval_gas_price_109157.html


45 posted on 03/09/2011 10:11:51 AM PST by Matchett-PI ("Freedom's Just Another Word For Nothing Left to Tax " ~ Gagdad Bob)
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To: moose-matson
BS. 25% cap with a reduction to 10% in lean years.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122057543526201877.html

Sounds like it corrected the former governors screw up.

46 posted on 03/09/2011 10:43:57 AM PST by Dead Corpse (III%. The last line in the sand)
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To: Dead Corpse

Gee. You forgot to add that the windfall tax was layered on top of existing taxes, fees and the royalty charges that were alreadyb in place...


47 posted on 03/09/2011 11:25:29 AM PST by moose-matson (I keep it in my head)
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