Posted on 03/16/2011 2:38:24 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Matthew Yglesias predicts that the white voters will become more Republican as nonwhites become a greater share of the population:
I used to hold to the view that the growing non-white share of the electorate would, over time, tip elections to Democrats. I now think the system will remain near equilibrium and what we’ll instead see is white voters growing more Republican as Democrats are more and more seen as the party of non-whites. Mississippi and Arizona, after all, have very large minority votes but they’re hardly hotbeds of liberalism. Instead they’re hotbeds of very conservative white people. Jonathan Chait isn't so sure and -- noting the significant liberal advantage among younger whites -- predicts a relatively durable Democratic majority going forward:
For Yglesias's thesis to be born out, those white voters would have to undergo a massive pro-Republican shift as they age -- not only getting more Republican, but getting more Republican than current old white voters are right now.
That seems unlikely. It seems to me that the choices really are that Republicans will achieve parity among Latinos -- which probably depends upon getting them to identify with the whites and against the blacks -- or else Democrats will have a general working majority, interrupted by recessions, scandals, and whatnot.
While Chait is probably underestimating the extent to which a large number of whites will become more conservative as the nonwhite population grows (most white people aren't under the age of 30), in the long-term, he's probably right, especially given the tendency of partisan affiliation to harden after a certain point. In all likelihood, if you're a Democrat in your 20s, then -- barring a dramatic change in the political landscape -- you'll probably be a Democrat for the rest of your life.
Two additional things.
First, I'm still pretty bullish on the possibility that Republicans will achieve parity with Latinos; as I've noted before, given high intermarriage rates between whites and Latinos, there's a fair chance that future America will have a large population of white people with Hispanic last names. Given the fluidity of these things, there's no real reason to think that these whites wouldn't be susceptible to conservative appeals on national identity/American-ness. Indeed, the only complicating factor is the Republican Party; continued demonization of Latinos as an electoral strategy could easily lead to a situation where most Latinos move overwhelmingly to support most Democrats in most elections (see: African Americans for a current example of this).
Second, even if Republicans do gain a foothold among Latinos, my guess is that the Democratic Party will still end up with a general working majority in most instances. It's not that Americans love liberalism, but that Democrats are willing to tolerate huge levels of ideological difference for the sake of electoral gain. Between demographic changes and partisan coalitions, I wouldn't be shocked if -- over the next 50 years -- we return to the 20th century pattern of "natural" Democratic majorities, interrupted by brief periods of conservative dominance and the occasional Republican president.
this is not going to flow because Democrats have become the party of homosexuals and radical feminists.
About the same as the NBA, NFL and Tax System.
“I used to hold to the view that the growing non-white share of the electorate would, over time, tip elections to Democrats. I now think the system will remain near equilibrium and what we’ll instead see is white voters growing more Republican as Democrats are more and more seen as the party of non-whites”
I agree. The one thing we can give Obama credit for is unifying the White vote. Not totally unified, but he’s definitely brought its center of mass (maybe as much as 70% of the white population) over to the conservative side.
The Dems are also angering the Hispanics BIG-TIME with their support for gay rights, abortion, and other crappy stuff...so the Hispanics remain up for grabs...and there goes the group that the Dems were really relying on.
I think the Dems will so be FINISHED as a major political player...unfortunately, they will likely destroy the country economically before they finally crushed.
In my opinion this is an attempt to assuage the Democrats sinking view of their own party; to counteract their bitter losses last November, and ongoing defeat at the state level reducing public union power.
Republicans don’t demonize Latinos. That is BS. Republicans want to stop illegal invaders of any kind no matter what their ethnicity. Just so happens that the majority of illegals are Latino.
For Yglesias's thesis to be born out, those white voters would have to undergo a massive pro-Republican shift as they age -- not only getting more Republican, but getting more Republican than current old white voters are right now.
That seems unlikely. It seems to me that the choices really are that Republicans will achieve parity among Latinos -- which probably depends upon getting them to identify with the whites and against the blacks -- or else Democrats will have a general working majority, interrupted by recessions, scandals, and whatnot.
Sounds like blind men trying to figure out what an elephant is.
Race may not be as much of a factor in the future. Or at least racial factors won't be so crudely determinative on the national level as these guys think.
You'll find some Latins assimilating and joining the Republicans. That's already happening. Where Democrats take the side of illegals, you may find African-Americans moving closer to the Republicans. And where there isn't much immigration, current patterns are more likely to continue.
You don't usually get permanently lopsided political imbalances in our system because the major parties are highly competitive organisms. Groups that are left out of the party in power's governing coalition gravitate to the other party when there aren't substantial obstacles standing in their way. And there aren't such obstacles now.
That Obama has been named “Gun Salesman of the Year” for two years running would tend to support your point.
I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen in the political game in this country. I do know that it won’t matter. Within ten years, fifteen tops, the entire country will be part of history. We have a chance right now, and very slim one to fix what needs fixin’, to grab a hold on the “Ship of State” and turn her around. Too bad those elected to do just that are only interested in the perpetuation of the same corrupt system. At some point, in the very near future, our interest payments to service the national debt will reach 100% of receipts. At that point, all money spent on anything other than debt service will be more debt. Nobody will loan us the money, hyperinflation will result, and the country will be pillaged like 16th century Latin America. There will be no political party to save us then, just an act of God, an act of Congress would just be a joke.
Our solar system has a visitor who is raising cain! (See Revelations Wormwood, KJV)
What people aren’t realizing is that the “white share” of the GOP is shrinking thus the DEM Party will re-power itself.
Point blank, whites aren’t investing in babies, they’re investing in ipads, cars, too much house, and guns. I laugh at all the tough “gun-guys” here. You aren’t going to do nothing with your guns. Guns are meaningless. You should be investing in more kids and raising them RIGHT. That’s how this war for America (and Western Civ/Christendom) is really being fought.
Illegal Jose or Mohammed may only make 25 grand a year but he has 5 kids.
You’re doing 100 grand a year and have 2 kids.
Guess who’s got more votes? And guess who’s got more sway in the school, legal and government system? They do, you don’t.
They just use their votes to take half your 100k a year away from you. And their kids in school bully yours and the school won’t do anything because they have more power than you. It’s a numbers game.
Have babies.
ML/NJ
I am in my early 40’s and nearly every white couple I know has at least 4 kids. Don’t count us out yet. If we can just stop the influx of new illegals we can fix this mess.
nearly every white couple I know has at least 4 kids
We only had two. And only one grandchild so far. Lots of Islamic Swine have been born in the interim.
ML/NJ
It is time to have that ‘honest’ discussion on race that Holder keeps alluding to. The GOP pretending that race doesn’t matter while the left pushes it up our rear end is certainly a loser. Just like the left screaming racist to the Tea Party from the comfort of the Black Caucus etc.
I am not sure if it is naivety, cowardice or just stupidity that thinks all these race groups will go away? That racial grievance, power & ‘social justice’ et al will just magically dissipate. Not only will they not go away but will continue to get stronger if we don’t alter our current path.
You’ve got to consider that White conservative birthrates are higher than White liberal birthrates. The secular, pro-abortion, liberal Whites are the ones who forego childbirth in favor of materialism, so this means that the White population could become more conservative over time just from this discrepancy. Of course, the liberals realize this, and think they can just indoctrinate all those conservatives’ kids when they go to school, so it might not work out that way.
The article is partially right, but for the wrong reason, IMO.
White Americans will become increasingly CONSERVATIVE as the liberals increasingly pander to minorities - to the exclusion (extrusion? LOL) of majority voters.
The republicans will pick up these voters by default - unless the tea party is forced to make the GOP defunct.
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