Posted on 05/28/2011 7:29:57 PM PDT by techno
Stalking-horse definition:
1)Means to disguising a real objective
2)A deceptive candidate who is on the ballot or enters an election only to divide the opposition (eg conservative vote) so that his friend or ally can win the election coming up the middle
In sports, there is an old saying: A team doesn't control its own destiny.
In other words a team finds that it has to rely on another team not doing well or screwing up in order to advance to the playoffs themselves.
In respect to the GOP primaries, CONSERVATIVES do control their own destiny.
Roughly for every 1 liberal and moderate voter there will be in the GOP primaries 2 conservative voters.
In addition Rasmussen at end of January 2011 found that of the entire GOP primary electorate in 2012, 40% of it will be comprised of GOP Tea Party members.
And via the 2008 exit polls it was determined that about 40% of the GOP primary vote then was comprised of evangelical Christians. I don't expect that to change in 2012.
(Obviously there is some overlap with TP members and evangelical voters.)
Poll after poll has shown that Mitt Romney doesn't do well among social conservatives, Tea Party members or folks who self-identify as VERY CONSERVATIVE or evangelical voters. I am not telling you anything that most of you do not know already.
Mitt Romney is NOT a stupid man, plus he has a team of advisers that are pretty savvy. Imho, they have determined there is only one sure-fired way to win the nomination and beat Sarah Palin, which is to set up 1 or 2 viable stalking-horses (eg Bachmann and Cain) to bleed conservative votes away from Palin during the vote and also to stop as many former Huckabee supporters from filtering over to Palin's tent over time.
As the definition of stalking-horse indicates these candidates have no intention of winning the GOP nomination. Instead they are only in the race to stop Sarah Palin from winning the nomination by winning conservative votes that might have gone to her if they were not in the race.
So what does this mean for conservatives. CONSERVATIVES, you do absolutely control your own destiny in the GOP primaries. If you really want to exercise your newfound clout in the most meaningful way and also set the stage for the defeat of President Obama in 2012, I am imploring you to eventually settle on one CONSERVATIVE candidate, and then coalesce behind him or her 100%.
As a Palinista, I hope you settle on Sarah Palin but if you choose to go with either Bachmann or Cain so be it. But for God's sake settle on one conservative and try to convince your conservative family members, friends, neighbors, golf buddies, club members, work associates and anybody who is conservative to adopt the same approach to the 2012 primaries. You must warn them of the consequences of not doing so.
Bottom line: You can't allow Mitt Romney to come up the middle.
As an example of what I am talking about:
First here are two recent PPP state polls in Ohio and Wisconsin conducted post-Huckabee:
Among voters who self-identify as VERY CONSERVATIVE:
a) OHIO
ROMNEY PALIN + BACHMANN + CAIN TOTAL
13 20 15 13 48
VERY CONSERVATIVE (VC) voters give their votes to conservative candidates over Romney by a 3.5 to 1 margin but Romney overall wins the Ohio state poll over Palin 21% to 16% because he dominates among moderates.
b)WISCONSIN
ROMNEY PALIN + BACHMANN + CAIN TOTAL
12 16 17 12 45
Again we see VC voters divvying up their votes three ways among conservative candidates by a 3.5 to 1 margin but again Romney dominates among moderates and wins overall 17% to 16% over Palin.
And finally a lesson from the 2008 GOP primaries in South Carolina (SC). Mike Huckabee dominated among evangelical voters picking up 46% of their vote but only 30% of the overall vote. At the same time Fred Thompson who has been rumored as a stalking-horse for John McCain picked up 15% of the vote in SC, much of it from conservatives, a good portion of it probably would have gone to Huckabee. This allowed John McCain to edge out Huckabee 33% to 30%.
Why was this significant? Charlie Crist, then Governor of Florida soon endorsed McCain. McCain went on to win Florida which was a must-win state for Romney and after Super Tuesday Mitt threw in the towel.
The $64,000 question: Would McCain still have won the nomination if Huckabee had won both Iowa and SC? I think an argument could have been made that Florida might have been tougher for McCain and Mitt might have stayed in.
What I do know however is that the win by McCain in SC had a great deal with McCain eventually winning the nomination which allowed him to pick Sarah Palin as his running mate several months later.
Ironically what may have propelled Sarah Palin into the national spotlight in 2008, the stalking-horse phenomenon, has the potential to derail and sink her presidential ambitions in 2012.
Are you REALLY trying to say Bachmann and Cain are stalking for Romney?
Romney for all his money doesn’t even do as well as this indicates.
Because every other RINO running takes votes from him.
It is not as if he has improved his chances from 2008.
He is a weaker candidate now than he was then.
The possibility did cross my mind.
Cain is a legitimate candidate and so far the only true conservative who has declared.
Her ain’t no damn stalking horse here to open the sluice for RINOmney.
One thing I do know: Sarah Palin is NOT stalking for Romney or anybody else.
This is absolutely spot on. I like Michelle Bachmann, but not as president. Ditto Cain. Neither of them are effective enough beyond their normal spheres to be president. For everyone’s sake, I hope Michelle realizes that her newfound pop amongst the lamestream is cooked.
Same with Cain. He is affable and he is black...and that’s it.,,a passing fad candidate, the anti-bam. THAT is as far as it goes.
In my opinion, a Palin/West ticket is unbeatable by anyone except G-d Almighty.
“Bottom line: You can’t allow Mitt Romney to come up the middle.”
I think any conservative feels this is a correct statement.
We want there to be a conservative (solidly conservative in moral/social issues as well of fiscal). The GOP needs to run against Obama a CLEARLY different choice than him.
Romney could have been President.
All he had to say was that Romneycare sucked, it won’t work, it was a bad mistake.
He didn’t say that and he blew it.
As much as I love Cain, I love West more and think he would be the perfect asset for Palin with his military background.
I like Bachmann and Cain but they take votes from Palin and will leave Romney the winner, I am afraid. I don’t think they have as much chance as Palin does or the gravitas to win. The hatred for Palin is actually an asset, since it will expose a lot of ugly leftists. They can’t help themselves to say the most vile things about her....it will help us in the end, I think. Something needs to shake up the zombie voter public and make them think more about issues than Oprah.
They are usually wrong but who cares enough to remind them after the elections?
Throw a bunch of numbers out there that make no sense, and the ignorant or confused voter will assume he is just too stupid to understand. This moron's explanation is clear as mud.
But he thinks he's really wise.
NOT!
The threat of Romney’s a great reason to pass up Bachmann or Cain, but I can’t believe those two are stalking-horses for him.
In my opinion, a Palin/West ticket is unbeatable by anyone except G-d Almighty.
There needs to be a Cain, West, and Bachmann in the mix for my vote and any others I can influence. Come to think of it I add Perry to the mix.
I disagree with your stalking horse situation. Both Cain and Bachmann are true conservatives and will work with Palin to determine who has the best chance of winning. They will work together to get a real conservative in office.
The stalking horses are among the multitude of RINOs who have entered or who have been threatening to enter into the race. Each one of them is controlled by the beltway boys and party elites who have even been able to get people like Michael Reagan, Rush Limbaugh, and Sean Hannity to declare them to be strong conservative candidates when they are really liberals pretending to be conservatives.
There is a stalking horse game being played but the game is coming from the elites through the RINOs. They are attempting to deceive the unwary. The names of these stalking horses are Jon Huntsman, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry and any other RINO of the minute that the elites and MSM try to get people to support. None of them have any chance to win but can peel off the few conservatives they can deceive just like what happened in NY 26. They lessen the chance a real conservative will get that conservative vote. The goal of their subterfuge is to prevent the real conservatives from winning.
So don’t put the blame on Cain and Bachmann, who are the true conservatives running. Take a close look at the RINO stalking horses and the people, even those here on this site, who are working like crazy to get conservatives to support their RINO candidates.
Sarah Palin is in the catbird seat, but I don’t think the nomination as you put it is “in hand”.
We are barely into the second quarter of the game. A lot of water has to go under the bridge yet including the topic of this thread.
Will conservatives continue to split their votes among several conservative candidates or will they coalesce behind one name and make it a showdown between Palin and Romney?
Frankly I don’t know the answer to that question and perhaps that is why I wrote this thread to gain some insight on the issue.
The GOP establishment isn’t stupid enough to get into the stalking horse game and bleed votes away from Mitt.
That is why a Huntsman candidacy I predict will NOT gain much traction.
And the GOP establishment will do everything in its power to convince Newt to terminate his bid for the WH sooner than later.
And T-Paw, who is he playing to? He is veering right trying to play to evangelicals. I am NOT saying T-Paw is a stalking horse but I will say he may end up performing like one in the end if he doesn’t get his numbers up soon.
Ridiculous, idnit?
If anyone is a stalking horse it is Cain. He did support Romney for President in 2008 however I must be honest that I don’t really think it is a plan on his part. If he wanted to be a stalking horse he’d be running far right instead he’s managed to muddle his message somewhat. Cain will collapse if Palin get’s in. Bachman isn’t going to run against Palin. If anything she has been a placeholder for Palin plus there very well may be a plan to between Bachman and Palin to run the first two woman ticket. The establishment should just accept the fact that a solid conservative is the only candidate that is going to be acceptable. A global warming environut, govt health care crafting, illegal immigrant hiring Mormon isn’t going to be the nominee. Neither is Huntsman. Why can’t they just for once just do what we did with Reagan and beat the living crap out of the left together? Is promoting left leaning big govt and social issues so damn important to GOP establishment Rhinos? If they would just join the team they’d reap the benefits but they need to accept the fact that if they really want to be Republicans they need to approach things from the Right and stop supporting liberty encroaching big govt and acting as though they are ashamed of the patriots on whose votes they count. I don’t expect them to be as pro-life as I am but I do expect them not to promote abortion. I don’t expect them to be as pro traditional family as I am but i do expect them not to be promoting homosexuality and other deviant behavior using the heavy hand of the federal govt. I don’t expect them to be even as small govt oriented as I am provided they orient their plans for govt so that the citizen who pays has a say and can opt out of big govt programs.
I don’t think those requirements are too much to ask. We each have things we care about more strongly than others. All I expect is that they won’t be taking up the causes of the left and stabbing us and the tax payers in the back.
How could loser Romney put his wife through this again?
What a brutal SOB he is. Uncaring about his wife.
Uncaring about the children his team attacked.
I believe very strongly that Palin (or anyone should and WILL choose Marco Rubio. Rubio would decimate the Punk ticket’s expected Hispanic advantage. Ryan is awesome, but he’s so incredibly bright that I wonder how many comprehend him. Besides, Ryan would not add much to the totals of those pre-disposed to vote conservative anyway.
And, if “moderates” REALLY care about heading off imminent collapse of the financial syatem, they had better swallow Palin. Hopefully, they’ll come to appreciate her innate common sense next November. Bob
Contrary to popular belief, Sarah Palin is NOT the only conservative in the US who is allowed to run for President.
In fact, of the conservatives running or floating rumors she is probably the LEAST electable in the general election as evidenced by her Christine O’Donnellesque general election poll numbers.
Why is that? Both Cain and Bachmann would likely fare better against Obama than Palin.
Not in this life. Ryan is too valiable where he is...and he is NOT a moderate. Neither is Palin. It isn’t her style. A giuliani would do the exact opposite for her as she did for mccain. Not going to happen. Rubio’s time is coming, but it isn’t now.
Ann Romney has MS. Although it appears to be in remission, the campaigning has got to be hard on her.
Will conservatives continue to split their votes among several conservative candidates or will they coalesce behind one name and make it a showdown between Palin and Romney?
They should drop out of the race immediately after Palin announces she is in. If they do anything else but, then they are not the conservatives they claim they are and will be complicit in getting Øbama re-elected by getting the nomination for a RINO who will not be able to beat him.
Never underestimate the GOP establishment and the Beltway elites.
Yes, it appeared that they might be abandoning Romney. But in baseball terms, they so found they have nobody qualified in the bullpen to replace him. In other words I think they know they are stuck with Romney as Jeb Bush has refused for the umpteenth time to enter the race and Chris Christie has told the world 15 times at least that he is NOT running.
So once you reconcile yourself to the proposition it’s Mitt Romney or bust and your disdain and loathing of Sarah Palin is at a fever pitch what is your option? You formulate a plan to beat Sarah Palin knowing it is Mitt Romney who will have to beat her.
You know all the negatives about Romney: Romneycare, Mormon religion, lack of acceptance by the South, not playing well with social conservatives and evangelicals. They are a given. 6-9 months of campaigning is not going to change it. Nothing has changed since 2008 except Romneycare is front and center estranging Mitt even more from conservatives.
So you are a savvy political operative who is paid big bucks to help Mitt win the nomination. You know the political landscape.
And you assume Sarah Palin is going to throw her hat into th ring: What do you do?
The only thing you can do: Propose the stalking-horse scenario, implement it and hope it works. It is NOT a fullproof plan but here’s the deal: it’s the only game in town for Mitt Romney. Otherwise he loses.
Could be. I’m not convinced of that, though.
Neither Bachmann nor Cain has gubernatorial experience. Palin’s got guts. I think she could probably mount a good campaign.
But we’ll see. If I had a crystal ball, I’d be rich. :-)
Same here. Or a time machine.
Why should Palin get special treatment? What makes you so arrogant to think that only she has a right to the conservative crown?
In all honesty both Palin and Bachmann should endorse Cain, the only conservative in the race with a smooth, charismatic delivery who can grab the attention of the independent voter.
Palin and Bachmann both have rather grating voices to the non-conservative ear, and that will pose a problem for them. Add to that Palin’s negatives and she has a STEEP uphill climb. Bachmann does too, but her negatives aren’t as high (mostly due to lower name recognition overall).
I have trouble buying that a confirmed candidate (Cain) and a probably-soon-to-be-confirmed candidate (Bachmann) are a stalking horse for an unconfirmed candidate (Palin.)
I mean, a stalking horse intended to knock out an uncomfirmed candidate, as in Palin.
Although Romney hasn’t declared either techincally.
Here are the basic qualifications of a stalking-horse:
1)Be on the ballot
2)Act like you want to win and have as your only goal on the
campaign trail to bleed votes away from a conservative opponent.
You forget one key piece to the puzzle: the mainstream media.
Even if a conservative is NOT viable they will try to convince GOP primary voters that he or she is through hype, propaganda and false polls. It doesn’t matter if the stalking-horse is really viable or not—it’s what the GOP primary voters think.
Looking back was Fred Thompson really viable? Well the non-viable Fred Thompson got 15% of the vote in SC basically preventing Mike Huckabee from winning that state in 2008.
The GOP establishment is in it already. Mitt is who they really want to win but they will sacrifice Mitt if they have to in order to keep Palin from winning. To them, having Palin win is a fate worse than death. What they are attempting to do is find some RINO who can catch the attention of some conservatives the way Mitt cannot.
They will control this RINO as they control other party dependent candidates. If this RINO really succeeds, they will drop Mitt. If he only succeeds in peeling off a few conservatives, they will have him consolidate his support but eventually drop out and throw all his delegates to Mitt. Delegates are usually republican party people, not necessarily TEA party people. So the GOP establishment will firmly control how those delegates vote.
Re-read my piece. I did say if conservatives decide to coalesce around either Bachmann or Cain, so be it.
I can live with that.
But I cannot live with the idea conservatives splitting their votes 3 different ways and allowing Romney to squeak out narrow victories in various states allowing him to eventually claim the nomination.
Sarah’s victory in Nov. 2012 will depend on whether she is able to successfully redefine herself. She doesn’t have to sway many voters as she got 46% in 2008, but she will need to change the minds of those independents who think that she is Tina Fey.
Her movie, “Undefeated” will be an eye-opener to many who are ignorant of her record in Alaska. Initially it will be shown in theatres, then DVD, and cable. By mid 2012 it will be everywhere. It will redefine Sarah and open the minds of many voters as will the primary debates. I don’t see a constituency for Bachmann or Cain after voters find out that she was an excellent governor and is electable. Many currently are supporting them because she is not currently in the race. Some are even supporting Romney for the same reason. Let’s wait until she announces and also see if Bachmann announces before we lose any sleep.
I’d be pretty annoyed as well...but what about T-Paw and even Newt? Won’t they split votes from Romney too and possibly neutralize the effect?
What numbers?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_palin_vs_obama-1169.html
These.
Sarah Palin is in the catbird seat, but I don’t think the nomination as you put it is “in hand”.
I didn’t mean to imply that. The conceit of the conversation related to her running mate—which presumes she’d have the nomination in hand.
“Palin’s next task will be to unify the party”
Uhhhh, why is is HER task to unify the party? It isn’t her that split them. It was the RINO establshment and they will swallow whatever they need to swallow to get HER money to put an R in the WH, even Palin. Because if they don’t, they will not see a red cent from Conservatives who will donate straight to Palin or other Conservative candidates running for senate and house seats.
Although T-Paw is trying to sell himself as a legitimate conservative, most folks know he isn’t. I would expect his supporters and Newt’s as well to go to Mitt in a showdown between Mitt and Sarah.
Neither T-Paw nor Newt are stalking horses. Having said that you can bet your bottom dollar there are discussions with Newt happening right now behind the scenes to convince him to leave the race for his dream job in Aspen or wherever. Newt was never viable but he is less viable now after his screw up about Paul Ryan, his budget and Medicare.
I frankly don’t know what T-Paw will do but he did not get as big a bump in the Gallup poll post-Huckabee as he expected (3% in April to 6% in May). How is he going to survive financially consistently polling at 6%?
“Both Cain and Bachmann would likely fare better against Obama than Palin.”
That statement is what is known as a gratuitous assertion.
There needs to be a Cain, West, and Bachmann in the mix for my vote and any others I can influence. Come to think of it I add Perry to the mix.
Will conservatives continue to split their votes among several conservative candidates or will they coalesce behind one name and make it a showdown between Palin and Romney?
I’d say if Palin enters she’ll be the only viable conservative. I just don’t think Cain or Bachmann or Santorum have a prayer. Most people don’t know who they are.
It’s always easier to convince someone with no opinion of you at all to vote for you, than to convince someone with a negative opinion of you.
I am willing to watch and listen - we do have a while before the first primary vote is cast...but...I have heard this conversation on FR before, where people were totally blind to polls, convinced that their candidate would win because the polls were “cooked” and the polls turned out right.
Look at the O’Donnell Senate race in Delaware for example. The polls were more or less dead on.
People know Palin.
They also know they don’t like her. Hence the problem with a Palin candidacy.
Rueters, Newsweek, CNN, Bwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahahhah!
“Palin’s next task will be to unify the party”
Uhhhh, why is is HER task to unify the party? It isn’t her that split them. It was the RINO establshment and they will swallow whatever they need to swallow to get HER money to put an R in the WH, even Palin. Because if they don’t, they will not see a red cent from Conservatives who will donate straight to Palin or other Conservative candidates running for senate and house seats.
But of course you know where millions of people are gonna send their money so I think you should call someone and tell them.
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