Unfortunately, I agree with you. I'm hoping that awkward moment when he announces his campaign and everyone ignores it, because they have a patriotic conservative to watch instead, will change that perception. I suspect that's the point of Sarah's rapid progress to the north.
In a truly crowded field, he’d be toast, IMO. But I think if it comes down to a 2 man race early (him and Palin?) , I’d say it’s 50-50. Take a look at the Primary schedule; you have the northeast states pretty early on, and so on.